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The Trend of Ripping Vintage

This whole topic such as the 75 Topps and the post on the 71 Topps rack has really got me to thinking. At what point do buyers of the "breakers" just say "no"? Say Vintage Breaks does 75 mini packs at like $22.50 per spot, I think. Obviously because they are cheaper and an easier sell at that price than picking up regular 75 packs at $400-500/pack which would have to go at $60-70/spot. So as the vintage wax/cellos/racks continue to dry up and the prices soar, when does it not become feasible to purchase packs for the sole purpose of ripping them? I know some people probably believe that we are already there on certain issues and the reality is that it is gambling and in the long run as a buyer you are always going to lose. While I have never been a collector of unopened packs, lately I'm going thru a bit of a moral dilemma about the opening of all these vintage packs that have remained sealed for so many years. I know it is a good thing for collectors/investors that are sitting on closets full of it watching prices rise and at some point you would have to say that the money is just too good to hang onto it any longer.
On a related note....as a collector/investor of packs, someone that loves an unopened pack for all it is, would you be willing to sell some of your ultra rare stuff knowing that someone is going to rip it and sell it by the spot??
There's a ton of unopened knowledge here at CU and just looking for some opinions and I wanted to give the topic it's own place as opposed to hijacking anyone else's post!
Thanks!

Promethius881969@yahoo.com
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,531 ✭✭✭✭✭

    At one point, years ago, you could rip vintage unopened and have a decent chance at pulling cards that would at least pay for part of the pack, sometimes even come out ahead. As unopened prices began to rise in the early part of the 2010s, that likelihood became more remote and the frequency with which packs were being opened diminished. For me, as an unopened collector (and occasional ripper), the joy was always with collecting unopened packs in their original form and once in a while experience the excitement of opening them (even if the odds were stacked against you). The phenomenon of pack breaking has fundamentally changed that dynamic in that a) packs are now being opened at a profit after all slots are sold and b) the people participating are not the ones doing the actual opening. If I'm selling a rare pack, I'd prefer it remain sealed but wouldn't presume to insist that the buyer keep it sealed. As a seller, once you elect to part with that pack, its fate is beyond your control. The pack breaking trend is certainly having an effect on values and on supply and that impact will be even more significant going forward as long as people participate in these breaks. There are packs I would sell if prices reach a certain point, but other packs in my collection that I would not part with, even if prices rise to record levels. Of course, we've seen prices continue to rise over the past decade so holding onto tougher packs/boxes is certainly a sound strategy regardless of current market conditions.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    waxman2745waxman2745 Posts: 725 ✭✭✭
    edited February 17, 2019 11:27PM

    The early to mid-2000s was the last time that ripping pre-1980 baseball was feasible in terms of pulling stars that would pay for the price of the pack imho.

    I remember purchasing and busting open many 1980 baseball packs around 2006 for $5 each.

    In 2019, we are way past the point of no return as far as ripping vintage. The $250 per slot price for the 71 rack was very alarming. I bet you could buy most of the commons from that set in PSA 9 for less than $250 each.

    Adam
    buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
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    70ToppsFanatic70ToppsFanatic Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭✭

    @waxman2745 said:
    The early to mid-2000s was the last time that ripping pre-1980 baseball was feasible in terms of pulling stars that would pay for the price of the pack imho.

    I remember purchasing and busting open many 1980 baseball packs around 2006 for $5 each.

    In 2019, we are way past the point of no return as far as ripping vintage. The $250 per slot price for the 71 rack was very alarming. I bet you could buy most of the commons from that set in PSA 9 for less than $250 each.

    Unfortunately roughly 1/3 of the cards (42) in 1971 series 1 as PSA 9 currently have VCP average of $250 or higher, and many that are less than $250 haven't seen a sale in several years (e.g. #24 RIch Hand is shown as an $82 card but the last recorded sale was in 2015). PSA 9s from 1971 are rare enough to justify sustain that kind of price per slot in my opinion. That being said, I have not seen many PSA 9s come from 1971 racks (and I have broken more than my share of them in the last 10 years) so I wouldn't be recommending anyone try it at that price.

    The more interesting point of this discussion is what true collectors are going to do in the face of what I previously called a "disruption" in the unopened market?

    From a pure collector standpoint it is going to become harder and harder to find things to add to your collection, both because supply is being reduced and because whoever holds what remains is not going to be parting with it at "collector" prices when the breakers have demonstrated an ability to get so much more. Would you sell your 1975 mini wax box at $4k if a vintage pack-ripping firm is getting $22.50/card in a wax pack rip? That equates to $8,100 per box of 36 packs!

    The other question for the collector is when do the prices get high enough that you are willing to part with your collectibles to a vintage pack-breaker? When the value of what you hold could cover the cost of a 4-year college education (including room & board) for your child at a state university there are many who are going to think twice about that proposition.

    From where I sit, this genie is NOT going back into the bottle. We live in an entirely new unopened market, and that market does not favor the long-term collector. There will be a few "last men/women standing", but I think there is enough momentum in the pack-breaking to take a serious amount of vintage unopened material out of existence permanently.



    Dave
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,531 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @70ToppsFanatic said:

    @waxman2745 said:
    The early to mid-2000s was the last time that ripping pre-1980 baseball was feasible in terms of pulling stars that would pay for the price of the pack imho.

    I remember purchasing and busting open many 1980 baseball packs around 2006 for $5 each.

    In 2019, we are way past the point of no return as far as ripping vintage. The $250 per slot price for the 71 rack was very alarming. I bet you could buy most of the commons from that set in PSA 9 for less than $250 each.

    Unfortunately roughly 1/3 of the cards (42) in 1971 series 1 as PSA 9 currently have VCP average of $250 or higher, and many that are less than $250 haven't seen a sale in several years (e.g. #24 RIch Hand is shown as an $82 card but the last recorded sale was in 2015). PSA 9s from 1971 are rare enough to justify sustain that kind of price per slot in my opinion. That being said, I have not seen many PSA 9s come from 1971 racks (and I have broken more than my share of them in the last 10 years) so I wouldn't be recommending anyone try it at that price.

    The more interesting point of this discussion is what true collectors are going to do in the face of what I previously called a "disruption" in the unopened market?

    From a pure collector standpoint it is going to become harder and harder to find things to add to your collection, both because supply is being reduced and because whoever holds what remains is not going to be parting with it at "collector" prices when the breakers have demonstrated an ability to get so much more. Would you sell your 1975 mini wax box at $4k if a vintage pack-ripping firm is getting $22.50/card in a wax pack rip? That equates to $8,100 per box of 36 packs!

    David, this is an interesting question. Personally, I would not use the cumulative price point of sold slots in a pack break to assert that my 75 mini wax box is worth that amount, unless completed sales of 75 mini wax boxes justified that price point. I do agree with your general assessment that these pack breaks will drive up prices for vintage unopened product (we've seen that happen to an extent with the tougher, rarer packs already) but unless I were deciding to sponsor my own pack break via web cam and sell slots in my box, I would not expect to get $8,100 or more than market value for completed sales of 75 mini wax boxes. It will be interesting now to see how much higher than 4K these boxes will go going forward.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    70ToppsFanatic70ToppsFanatic Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭✭

    Tim,

    I agree. Just because the pack-breaker get the equivalent of $8100 for a box of 1975 minis does not mean the current $4k full box price does a step-function to $8100.

    The question is where will the price go between those two figures? That's really a question involving psychology of market behavior which is not something I am heavily experienced in.

    Being someone who holds some of these boxes, forgetting for a moment that the ones form my case that were broken here on the board yielded uncharacteristically well-centered cards, I can tell you that I wouldn't be offering them at $4k when someone else is able to get more than 2x using the vintage pack break marketing approach.

    If I were to hazard a guess, there needs to be enough margin left in it for the pack-breaker to still justify tying up the money in the unopened material and eventually breaking it when the slots fill up. When it's a 100% premium ($4k versus $8k) there certainly is enough. I'd be willing to bet that the pack-breakers will be able to still make it work nicely at between 50%-67% premium. If I'm right that would mean the price of a 1975 mini wax box would bump to between $5200-$6000.

    As long as they continue to hit a few nicely centered stars in the 60s and 70s packs they are breaking I believe we are going to see that happen.



    Dave
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,531 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I remember those 75 mini boxes you had, Dave, and opened quite a few of them myself. They were very nice cards in those packs and I promise not to sell any to pack breakers if you decide to sell me any more of them, LOL..



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @waxman2745 said:
    The early to mid-2000s was the last time that ripping pre-1980 baseball was feasible in terms of pulling stars that would pay for the price of the pack imho.

    Agree and I have documented many times here with 1978 Topps I used to rip like crazy in 2003 through 2006. I wouldn't even think about it now.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    Another wrinkle is that right now, it seems like most of these breakers are utilizing product that they own. I've seen a few breakers dip their toe into buying various graded cards and creating "custom" breaks. It is a fun concept.

    Just as PWCC has done with collectibles on Ebay, the next step for breakers will be accepting consignments for breaks. It is the natural evolution of what the market is saying it desires. In the scenario presented above, using PWCCs pricing model, figure a 10% rate. If we use BBCE as the broker, bypassing Ebay fees, your $8100 '75 Mini Box would net you $7,290, with $810 going to BBCE.

    This way, everyone wins. The breaker doesn't have to lock up valuable capital in product. They can source the top tier product to keep consumers interested and making the market more competitive. And most of all, the product owner doesn't need to deal with the hassle of managing the break.

    And going back to the question about when will the breaks stop being financially viable, it is great question about the psychology of gambling. I would hazard that most people do not view breaks as a pure financial exercise. Let's take a 86-87 Fleer Basketball break. If we assume a Jordan PSA 10 is $20k, is it that crazy to sell packs for $2k a pop from a well-sourced, BBCE authenticated box? While the expected return per pack is quite low, as long as people have a chance to chase that "unicorn" card in the set, people will respond. Will people who don't hit eventually burn out, pack up and go home? Perhaps, but their is always another person waiting in the wings to take their spot.

    I'd love to look back at every break that BBCE has done and estimate how much extra revenue this new venture has created for their company. I may be overstating that fact, but I would venture it is a game changer for them.

    Joe

    IG: goatcollectibles23

    The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @waxman2745 said:
    The early to mid-2000s was the last time that ripping pre-1980 baseball was feasible in terms of pulling stars that would pay for the price of the pack imho.

    I remember purchasing and busting open many 1980 baseball packs around 2006 for $5 each.

    In 2019, we are way past the point of no return as far as ripping vintage. The $250 per slot price for the 71 rack was very alarming. I bet you could buy most of the commons from that set in PSA 9 for less than $250 each.

    I'm not saying that i might not one day grab one of those slots on a break that I'm interested in, if the price is fair and reasonable for what could be gotten in that particular pack.

    But it has to be said, those who consistently spend say $250 for slots on 1971 Topps breaks, no offense intended, but they really do have bad math skills.

    To get a 10 out of those vintage packs simply isn't reasonable at all. Frankly, the website listing the selling price of a star card 10 when hawking the break, when the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small if not often impossible on vintage at this point, is very misleading in my opinion.

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    PROMETHIUS88PROMETHIUS88 Posts: 2,820 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @SpinFadeSplash23 said:
    Another wrinkle is that right now, it seems like most of these breakers are utilizing product that they own. I've seen a few breakers dip their toe into buying various graded cards and creating "custom" breaks. It is a fun concept.

    Just as PWCC has done with collectibles on Ebay, the next step for breakers will be accepting consignments for breaks. It is the natural evolution of what the market is saying it desires. In the scenario presented above, using PWCCs pricing model, figure a 10% rate. If we use BBCE as the broker, bypassing Ebay fees, your $8100 '75 Mini Box would net you $7,290, with $810 going to BBCE.

    This way, everyone wins. The breaker doesn't have to lock up valuable capital in product. They can source the top tier product to keep consumers interested and making the market more competitive. And most of all, the product owner doesn't need to deal with the hassle of managing the break.

    And going back to the question about when will the breaks stop being financially viable, it is great question about the psychology of gambling. I would hazard that most people do not view breaks as a pure financial exercise. Let's take a 86-87 Fleer Basketball break. If we assume a Jordan PSA 10 is $20k, is it that crazy to sell packs for $2k a pop from a well-sourced, BBCE authenticated box? While the expected return per pack is quite low, as long as people have a chance to chase that "unicorn" card in the set, people will respond. Will people who don't hit eventually burn out, pack up and go home? Perhaps, but their is always another person waiting in the wings to take their spot.

    I'd love to look back at every break that BBCE has done and estimate how much extra revenue this new venture has created for their company. I may be overstating that fact, but I would venture it is a game changer for them.

    Joe, I think you bring up some very interesting points. But, I will say that outside of BBCE, I am pretty sure that breakers are buying up the unopened to rip. I can see on Ebay or other forums where items have been purchased then come up for sale in a break.
    The set break concept is one that I like and have done. In the long run, you are going to lose but it's a fun gamble and at least some entertainment. I don't feel the moral guilt of participating in the break of a rare pack that is becoming non-existent.
    It will be interesting to see if people breaking decide to do consignments. Probably would have to go that way if those holding the product are unwilling to sell just to see it ripped for 2-3 times what they sold it for.
    As I have contemplated this for the last few weeks, I have tried to put myself into the position of some one holding onto a stash....which I am not. Even for the most avid enthusiast of unopened, there has to be a point, monetarily that they relinquish some or all of their holdings. I mean, I really HOPE that is not the case because once it is gone, we can't get more of it. I would hate to have to go to a museum in 20 years to see that one last unopened pack of cards that remains from the 1950's or 1960's.

    Promethius881969@yahoo.com
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    RoflesRofles Posts: 752 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Man reading all your posts makes me want to start collecting unopened just to hold onto!

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    PROMETHIUS88PROMETHIUS88 Posts: 2,820 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Rofles said:
    Man reading all your posts makes me want to start collecting unopened just to hold onto!

    I have been collecting on and off for about 40 years and I have never really given much thought about collecting unopened until recently. I have a couple PSA graded packs that I won't let go of, at least not for a while. I did have a 74 Topps cello pack with Hank Aaron on top that I had slabbed and sold. Was planning on hanging onto that one but I couldn't pass on the price. Besides, that one I don't feel bad about as it was someone that had been looking for that specific pack for a long time and I know it won't be opened.

    Promethius881969@yahoo.com
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    RoflesRofles Posts: 752 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @PROMETHIUS88 said:

    @Rofles said:
    Man reading all your posts makes me want to start collecting unopened just to hold onto!

    I have been collecting on and off for about 40 years and I have never really given much thought about collecting unopened until recently. I have a couple PSA graded packs that I won't let go of, at least not for a while. I did have a 74 Topps cello pack with Hank Aaron on top that I had slabbed and sold. Was planning on hanging onto that one but I couldn't pass on the price. Besides, that one I don't feel bad about as it was someone that had been looking for that specific pack for a long time and I know it won't be opened.

    Very nice. I just bought two ‘79 Topps BBCE sealed Baseball racks today that will not be opened, and will keep an eye out for more in the future (as long as my wife doesn’t find out 🤣😂)

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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Rofles said:
    Man reading all your posts makes me want to start collecting unopened just to hold onto!

    I would agree that not only for collecting purposes fun, but for a great investment as well.

    I'm not going to predict when the first early 1960's high grade PSA vintage pack hits 10k. However in my opinion one day that will happen. And it may be sooner than we may think, considering that's a lot more money than what they sell for now.

    Frankly, i don't see how these PSA slabbed unopened vintage packs can miss going way up in future value, unless the economy absolutely tanks.

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    RoflesRofles Posts: 752 ✭✭✭✭✭

    eBay has a ‘75 mini BBCE for $5100 and a ‘74 BBCE wax box for $9995 right now. Are these considered firesale prices? It will be interesting to see if these sell or not.

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    gemintgemint Posts: 6,069 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's still hard to believe that I bought 1960 cello packs for $75 each in the late 90s. I only bought three at that price even though the seller had about a dozen! Shows used to have a few dealers that would break wax boxes from the 60s for about $200-$250 per pack. Had I known what I know now, I would have bought every one I could afford. But I can't complain as at least I bought one of each year for my personal collection.

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    gemintgemint Posts: 6,069 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:.

    To get a 10 out of those vintage packs simply isn't reasonable at all. Frankly, the website listing the selling price of a star card 10 when hawking the break, when the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small if not often impossible on vintage at this point, is very misleading in my opinion.

    I've probably submitted 3,000 nice 1971s over the years and never once pulled a 10. Even 9s are really tough to get.

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    70ToppsFanatic70ToppsFanatic Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:

    @waxman2745 said:
    The early to mid-2000s was the last time that ripping pre-1980 baseball was feasible in terms of pulling stars that would pay for the price of the pack imho.

    I remember purchasing and busting open many 1980 baseball packs around 2006 for $5 each.

    In 2019, we are way past the point of no return as far as ripping vintage. The $250 per slot price for the 71 rack was very alarming. I bet you could buy most of the commons from that set in PSA 9 for less than $250 each.

    I'm not saying that i might not one day grab one of those slots on a break that I'm interested in, if the price is fair and reasonable for what could be gotten in that particular pack.

    But it has to be said, those who consistently spend say $250 for slots on 1971 Topps breaks, no offense intended, but they really do have bad math skills.

    To get a 10 out of those vintage packs simply isn't reasonable at all. Frankly, the website listing the selling price of a star card 10 when hawking the break, when the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small if not often impossible on vintage at this point, is very misleading in my opinion.

    For a 1971 rack pack, I'd argue that the chances of getting a "9" are also very small. I've seen a few stars from such 1971 packs come back as 8s, but I cant recall seeing any come back



    Dave
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    SdubSdub Posts: 736 ✭✭✭

    To get a 10 out of those vintage packs simply isn't reasonable at all. Frankly, the website listing the selling price of a star card 10 when hawking the break, when the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small if not often impossible on vintage at this point, is very misleading in my opinion.

    Agreed. Jordangretskyfan can't even find 10's in an 81 Donruss box, yet alone a '71 rack.

    Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83.
    Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
    Prefer to buy in bulk.
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    70ToppsFanatic70ToppsFanatic Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭✭

    My experience is similar to John’s on 1971s from racks. I’ve seen PSA 8 Rose, PSA 8 Blyleven, PSA 8.5 Niekro, PSA 8.5 Carlton, PSA 8.5 Seaver and some commons with similar grades. Other than a PSA 9 Koosman I haven’t seen a 9 pop in quite a substantial number of submissions.



    Dave
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    SdubSdub Posts: 736 ✭✭✭

    @70ToppsFanatic said:
    My experience is similar to John’s on 1971s from racks. I’ve seen PSA 8 Rose, PSA 8 Blyleven, PSA 8.5 Niekro, PSA 8.5 Carlton, PSA 8.5 Seaver and some commons with similar grades. Other than a PSA 9 Koosman I haven’t seen a 9 pop in quite a substantial number of submissions.

    There were 160 PSA 10's in 2013. Now 204. 44 new 10's in the last 6 years. There's been 48,000 submissions in those 6 years. Allowing for some resubmissions/bumps, maybe 25-30 fresh 10's have been slabbed in the last 6 years; out of 48,000 submissions. wow

    Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83.
    Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
    Prefer to buy in bulk.
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    45isodd45isodd Posts: 206 ✭✭✭


    The hammer price of $19,200 for 500 cards comes out to $38.40 per card, which seems extremely low compared with the price of slots in the pack breaks.

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    PROMETHIUS88PROMETHIUS88 Posts: 2,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 1:18AM

    @45isodd said:

    The hammer price of $19,200 for 500 cards comes out to $38.40 per card, which seems extremely low compared with the price of slots in the pack breaks.

    That was another thought that I had, but not previously noted. When will they start breaking vending at X amount per spot?? I don't know that cost/value of most vending boxes but even that seems super cheap. If you can pick boxes up from the 70's for $1-2k depending on the years(not sure if that is a reasonable number), but seems that $10/spot would be a pretty easy sell.
    I'm betting a 60 Vending would easily sell at $50-75/card in a break but just might take a while to sell.

    Promethius881969@yahoo.com
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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't know anything about Topps 1960 vending boxes. IE: whether or not they came "sealed", whether or not they were shipped with a flap that could just be opened without damaging the box, etc.

    Sorry, but I'm not sure that i would trust that item to be unsearched, and I'm sure most others feel the same way because the lot sold for $38 a card. Just now checking Ebay, two 1960 PSA slabbed wax packs recently sold for $2,250 and $2,605 - that averages out to $485 per card. And the buyer likely knows that one card could be badly stained because of the gum.

    BBCE isn't in business to give things away. If they thought that vending box was worth a lot more than that, they would have placed a considerably higher minimum bid on it.

    So considering all of that, i'm not sure that most people would be too excited about paying a lot of money for slots at a chance to get a card from a vending box, whereby somewhere along the line of around sixty years, was likely if not definitely searched...in my opinion.

    Frankly, i wouldn't be interested in that BBCE exchange vending box at all at that hammer price. Considering in my opinion that there are no star cards in there, doing some quick math, with grading fees and Ebay fees, it would be very hard to turn a profit, and you might even lose money, and waste a lot of time doing it.

    If the vending box was bought for collecting interest...fine. However i'd rather just buy beautiful PSA 8 1960 baseball cards off Ebay, look for good deals, and then I know exactly what I'm getting as far as centering, etc. :)

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    brad31brad31 Posts: 2,570 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 6:40AM

    Isn’t BBCE certifying it is unsearched? If I could afford this I would drive to BBCE and open the box there. If there are no stars at all I would imagine that they would do something to rectify it. They are not certifying that it is a box containing 1960 vending cards. They are certifying that it is a 1960 vending box that still contains the cards that Topps put there and in their opinion it is unsearched. Am I missing something on what their wrapping means? Every card could be badly miscut and have corner wear from mishandling of the box but a 1960 vending box made up of only two series of cards should have the majority of stars from those series and some duplicates of stars.

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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 6:43AM

    @stevek said:
    I don't know anything about Topps 1960 vending boxes. IE: whether or not they came "sealed", whether or not they were shipped with a flap that could just be opened without damaging the box, etc.

    Sorry, but I'm not sure that i would trust that item to be unsearched, and I'm sure most others feel the same way because the lot sold for $38 a card. Just now checking Ebay, two 1960 PSA slabbed wax packs recently sold for $2,250 and $2,605 - that averages out to $485 per card. And the buyer likely knows that one card could be badly stained because of the gum.

    BBCE isn't in business to give things away. If they thought that vending box was worth a lot more than that, they would have placed a considerably higher minimum bid on it.

    So considering all of that, i'm not sure that most people would be too excited about paying a lot of money for slots at a chance to get a card from a vending box, whereby somewhere along the line of around sixty years, was likely if not definitely searched...in my opinion.

    Frankly, i wouldn't be interested in that BBCE exchange vending box at all at that hammer price. Considering in my opinion that there are no star cards in there, doing some quick math, with grading fees and Ebay fees, it would be very hard to turn a profit, and you might even lose money, and waste a lot of time doing it.

    If the vending box was bought for collecting interest...fine. However i'd rather just buy beautiful PSA 8 1960 baseball cards off Ebay, look for good deals, and then I know exactly what I'm getting as far as centering, etc. :)

    By wrapping that box, Steve Hart is saying it's unsearched. Considering his reputation I'd side with Steve Hart/BBCE 24/7/365 and sometimes 366

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @brad31 said:
    Isn’t BBCE certifying it is unsearched? If I could afford this I would drive to BBCE and open the box there. If there are no stars at all I would imagine that they would do something to rectify it. They are not certifying that it is a box containing 1960 vending cards. They are certifying that it is a 1960 vending box that still contains the cards that Topps put there and in their opinion it is unsearched. Am I missing something on what their wrapping means? Every card could be badly miscut and have corner wear from mishandling of the box but a 1960 vending box made up of only two series of cards should have the majority of stars from those series and some duplicates of stars.

    Correct. By wrapping that bad boy Steve Hart is saying it's 100% unsearched. Period.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    waxman2745waxman2745 Posts: 725 ✭✭✭

    What is the provenance behind this box? I thought that BBCE only authenticated vending boxes that came from Fritsch?

    Adam
    buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 7:56AM

    @waxman2745 said:
    What is the provenance behind this box? I thought that BBCE only authenticated vending boxes that came from Fritsch?

    I believe BBCE will authenticate vending from anybody but ONLY from SEALED cases? This is a good question as that 1960 box is NOT FASC .... perhaps a special circumstance?

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @softparade said:

    @brad31 said:
    Isn’t BBCE certifying it is unsearched? If I could afford this I would drive to BBCE and open the box there. If there are no stars at all I would imagine that they would do something to rectify it. They are not certifying that it is a box containing 1960 vending cards. They are certifying that it is a 1960 vending box that still contains the cards that Topps put there and in their opinion it is unsearched. Am I missing something on what their wrapping means? Every card could be badly miscut and have corner wear from mishandling of the box but a 1960 vending box made up of only two series of cards should have the majority of stars from those series and some duplicates of stars.

    Correct. By wrapping that bad boy Steve Hart is saying it's 100% unsearched. Period.

    So if the original owner around sixty years ago or another owner some other time during the course of six decades, carefully removed the Mantles, Mays, etc, from a 1960 Topps baseball vending box, and replaced those cards with other cards perhaps from another vending box...then a skilled baseball card seller can ascertain that had happened? If so, how would he know that?

    There may not have even been any deception involved at the time if it happened. Maybe just a candy store owner in the early 1960's, buys a few vending boxes, pulls the star cards out of there and sells those for say a quarter a piece, and replaces those cards in the box with commons...or whatever. Nobody back then could have even imaged the value that these cards would have today.

    I'm not trying to denigrate Steve Hart. I've got no interest whatsoever in doing that. I'm just trying to learn how he figured that the vending box was unsearched?

    Let's tell it like it is...the word "unsearched" in card and coin sales on Ebay and elsewhere, is one of the most lying words used out there. I am interested in buying items such as this box. But not until I become much more knowledgeable about it. I don't feel like shelling out 19k for an "unsearched" vending box and then discovering that the vending box actually was searched, due to the fact of no star cards being in there, or perhaps any star card in there is badly miscut.

    Frankly though, wouldn't any card dealer, it's a business, if they could do it, peruse thru a vending box such as this, and if there are a number of high grade star cards in there, he's not going to put a box like that up for sale at a minimum bid of $2,500. No smart businessman would do that.

    Hey, correct me if I'm wrong or missing something here. I don't mind at all. I'm just trying to learn more about these very interesting vending boxes. :)

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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:

    @softparade said:

    @brad31 said:
    Isn’t BBCE certifying it is unsearched? If I could afford this I would drive to BBCE and open the box there. If there are no stars at all I would imagine that they would do something to rectify it. They are not certifying that it is a box containing 1960 vending cards. They are certifying that it is a 1960 vending box that still contains the cards that Topps put there and in their opinion it is unsearched. Am I missing something on what their wrapping means? Every card could be badly miscut and have corner wear from mishandling of the box but a 1960 vending box made up of only two series of cards should have the majority of stars from those series and some duplicates of stars.

    Correct. By wrapping that bad boy Steve Hart is saying it's 100% unsearched. Period.

    So if the original owner around sixty years ago or another owner some other time during the course of six decades, carefully removed the Mantles, Mays, etc, from a 1960 Topps baseball vending box, and replaced those cards with other cards perhaps from another vending box...then a skilled baseball card seller can ascertain that had happened? If so, how would he know that?

    There may not have even been any deception involved at the time if it happened. Maybe just a candy store owner in the early 1960's, buys a few vending boxes, pulls the star cards out of there and sells those for say a quarter a piece, and replaces those cards in the box with commons...or whatever. Nobody back then could have even imaged the value that these cards would have today.

    I'm not trying to denigrate Steve Hart. I've got no interest whatsoever in doing that. I'm just trying to learn how he figured that the vending box was unsearched?

    Let's tell it like it is...the word "unsearched" in card and coin sales on Ebay and elsewhere, is one of the most lying words used out there. I am interested in buying items such as this box. But not until I become much more knowledgeable about it. I don't feel like shelling out 19k for an "unsearched" vending box and then discovering that the vending box actually was searched, due to the fact of no star cards being in there, or perhaps any star card in there is badly miscut.

    Frankly though, wouldn't any card dealer, it's a business, if they could do it, peruse thru a vending box such as this, and if there are a number of high grade star cards in there, he's not going to put a box like that up for sale at a minimum bid of $2,500. No smart businessman would do that.

    Hey, correct me if I'm wrong or missing something here. I don't mind at all. I'm just trying to learn more about these very interesting vending boxes. :)

    Send BBCE any questions you may have on a BBCE wrapped box. I bet Steve himself answers you.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    gemintgemint Posts: 6,069 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm guessing this box was wrapped some time ago. BBCE stopped certifying vending boxes that aren't FASC a few years ago. Maybe there are exceptions? Hopefully Reed can chime in to confirm.

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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @softparade said:

    @stevek said:

    @softparade said:

    @brad31 said:
    Isn’t BBCE certifying it is unsearched? If I could afford this I would drive to BBCE and open the box there. If there are no stars at all I would imagine that they would do something to rectify it. They are not certifying that it is a box containing 1960 vending cards. They are certifying that it is a 1960 vending box that still contains the cards that Topps put there and in their opinion it is unsearched. Am I missing something on what their wrapping means? Every card could be badly miscut and have corner wear from mishandling of the box but a 1960 vending box made up of only two series of cards should have the majority of stars from those series and some duplicates of stars.

    Correct. By wrapping that bad boy Steve Hart is saying it's 100% unsearched. Period.

    So if the original owner around sixty years ago or another owner some other time during the course of six decades, carefully removed the Mantles, Mays, etc, from a 1960 Topps baseball vending box, and replaced those cards with other cards perhaps from another vending box...then a skilled baseball card seller can ascertain that had happened? If so, how would he know that?

    There may not have even been any deception involved at the time if it happened. Maybe just a candy store owner in the early 1960's, buys a few vending boxes, pulls the star cards out of there and sells those for say a quarter a piece, and replaces those cards in the box with commons...or whatever. Nobody back then could have even imaged the value that these cards would have today.

    I'm not trying to denigrate Steve Hart. I've got no interest whatsoever in doing that. I'm just trying to learn how he figured that the vending box was unsearched?

    Let's tell it like it is...the word "unsearched" in card and coin sales on Ebay and elsewhere, is one of the most lying words used out there. I am interested in buying items such as this box. But not until I become much more knowledgeable about it. I don't feel like shelling out 19k for an "unsearched" vending box and then discovering that the vending box actually was searched, due to the fact of no star cards being in there, or perhaps any star card in there is badly miscut.

    Frankly though, wouldn't any card dealer, it's a business, if they could do it, peruse thru a vending box such as this, and if there are a number of high grade star cards in there, he's not going to put a box like that up for sale at a minimum bid of $2,500. No smart businessman would do that.

    Hey, correct me if I'm wrong or missing something here. I don't mind at all. I'm just trying to learn more about these very interesting vending boxes. :)

    Send BBCE any questions you may have on a BBCE wrapped box. I bet Steve himself answers you.

    I'd rather get viewpoints from collectors on their experience buying 50's, 60's, and 70's Topps baseball vending boxes.

    No offense intended, but when it comes to "reputable" card and coin dealers, I don't care who it is, I like Ronald Reagan's old line, "Trust, but verify." :)

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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/vintage-pack-resealers-prey-on-uninformed-collectors/

    Vintage Sports Card Pack Resealers Prey on Uninformed Collectors

    Interview with Steve Hart. It was from October 1, 2008.

    I just scanned over it, and intend to go back and read it thoroughly. It does look very interesting.

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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    I think BBCE will mark vending boxes FASC from sealed cases. They make an exception for authenticating Fritsch boxes that are not from sealed cases. I don’t know if that’s always been their policy, or if not, when it became current policy.

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    RoflesRofles Posts: 752 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @softparade said:

    @stevek said:

    @softparade said:

    @brad31 said:
    Isn’t BBCE certifying it is unsearched? If I could afford this I would drive to BBCE and open the box there. If there are no stars at all I would imagine that they would do something to rectify it. They are not certifying that it is a box containing 1960 vending cards. They are certifying that it is a 1960 vending box that still contains the cards that Topps put there and in their opinion it is unsearched. Am I missing something on what their wrapping means? Every card could be badly miscut and have corner wear from mishandling of the box but a 1960 vending box made up of only two series of cards should have the majority of stars from those series and some duplicates of stars.

    Correct. By wrapping that bad boy Steve Hart is saying it's 100% unsearched. Period.

    So if the original owner around sixty years ago or another owner some other time during the course of six decades, carefully removed the Mantles, Mays, etc, from a 1960 Topps baseball vending box, and replaced those cards with other cards perhaps from another vending box...then a skilled baseball card seller can ascertain that had happened? If so, how would he know that?

    There may not have even been any deception involved at the time if it happened. Maybe just a candy store owner in the early 1960's, buys a few vending boxes, pulls the star cards out of there and sells those for say a quarter a piece, and replaces those cards in the box with commons...or whatever. Nobody back then could have even imaged the value that these cards would have today.

    I'm not trying to denigrate Steve Hart. I've got no interest whatsoever in doing that. I'm just trying to learn how he figured that the vending box was unsearched?

    Let's tell it like it is...the word "unsearched" in card and coin sales on Ebay and elsewhere, is one of the most lying words used out there. I am interested in buying items such as this box. But not until I become much more knowledgeable about it. I don't feel like shelling out 19k for an "unsearched" vending box and then discovering that the vending box actually was searched, due to the fact of no star cards being in there, or perhaps any star card in there is badly miscut.

    Frankly though, wouldn't any card dealer, it's a business, if they could do it, peruse thru a vending box such as this, and if there are a number of high grade star cards in there, he's not going to put a box like that up for sale at a minimum bid of $2,500. No smart businessman would do that.

    Hey, correct me if I'm wrong or missing something here. I don't mind at all. I'm just trying to learn more about these very interesting vending boxes. :)

    Send BBCE any questions you may have on a BBCE wrapped box. I bet Steve himself answers you.

    I emailed Steve 5 times yesterday with various questions on orders I’ve placed and whatnot, and apologized for bothering him; he not only responded to every question I asked, but concluded with that I was “no bother at all.” Being basically brand-new to all this (collecting), I found it not only comforting, but finding out someone in the collecting word does what they can to preserve the integrity of collecting for others even if they’re starting out.

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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 10:29AM

    Steve Hart is at the summit of hobby integrity. I'll leave that topic with that thought.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    70ToppsFanatic70ToppsFanatic Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 12:42PM

    @softparade said:
    Steve Hart is at the summit of hobby integrity. I'll leave that topic with that thought.

    I agree with this statement. While he is also human, and therefore can make and has made honest mistakes, I’ve known Steve for more than a decade and can state my opinion that Steve has NEVER knowingly done anything professionally that had the slightest inkling of impropriety, malfeasance, etc.

    You want to know what kind of person Steve Hart is? Here’s the answer:

    Several years back I bought a rather expensive unopened item from BBCE. A few YEARS after that it was discovered that this item was not authentic. Steve proactively offered me a full refund immediately.

    The man is a CLASS ACT!



    Dave
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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 12:46PM

    Let me rephrase the discussion if I may.

    Why did the wax pack cards sell for $485 per card, yet the vending box cards sold for $38 per card?

    I think i understand the Vintage Breaks thing, and the wax pack collectors paying a premium for unopened wax packs. But a $447 dollar difference per card? Something more must be in play here.

    I would have to think, all things being equal, that if a vending box truly is considered unsearched, that it should actually reap better grade cards than a wax pack. Because of vintage wax packs with the wax and gum stains, as well as likely getting jostled around over the years in shoe boxes, drawers, etc, affecting the corners

    If this vending box truly is unsearched, was the price of 19k a steal on it? It would be most interesting to see a video on the cards inside that box.

    I've watched a number of videos on Youtube of wax pack breaks, and at least the PSA slabbed packs seemed 100% genuine unopened to me. I can't say that about the other TPG slabbed packs that were busted. Some of the other TPG slabbed packs, in my opinion, were obviously resealed. That being said, the videos I saw were all losers anyway as far as the cost of the purchase versus the value of the cards inside. Some were very bad losers.

    The bottom line is I don't feel like investing 19k which is a lot of money for me, with the goal of saving some for my collection, and getting the rest PSA graded to make a profit...but windup getting financially crushed because I received a vending box full of grade 6 or 7 type commons.

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    45isodd45isodd Posts: 206 ✭✭✭

    From what I understand about vending boxes, a machine places the cards in the box, forming a pattern as it does so. Taking the cards out of the box will disturb the pattern, and cannot be replicated by hand.

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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,531 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 19, 2019 2:28PM

    A couple of things need to be pointed out here. First, the 1960 vending box pictured above sold in late 2016. Prices for vintage unopened product, especially for the tougher issues, have risen significantly since then. More importantly, though, there is always going to be a huge difference in value, per card, between vending and wax or any other form of single pack packaged for retail sale. For example, let's take a look at 1971. A 71 vending box authenticated by BBCE sold via Collect Auctions at the same time as this 1960 box, back in December 2016, for $8,260. That breaks down to about $16 per card. Compare that to the cost, per card, of a PSA 7 1971 Topps baseball wax pack, which presently retails for about $2,800, or $280 per card, and you quickly see the huge difference between them. Packs are always going to carry a significant premium, per card, vs vending. Finally, if the box is shrinkwrapped by Steve, it is either from a sealed case or direct from the Fritsch warehouse. In either case, I would have no reservations about proceeding with confidence as a buyer should I want to purchase a BBCE authenticated vending box. Raw vending boxes are another matter, but as mentioned above, there are telltale signs to look for in a box to determine if the brick of cards has been disturbed or not, though obviously there is also an element of risk in that case, too. Breaking one box from the source (if multiples exist) is a great way to confirm authenticity and is what I did several years back when I purchased a bunch of 78 baseball vending boxes from a gentleman who had broken a case.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You dirty smelly dog you have 78 Vending? LOL

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,531 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @softparade said:
    You dirty smelly dog you have 78 Vending? LOL

    I do, LOL. I cracked open one box which yielded quite a few 9s and 10s but have been saving the others for a rainy day.. ;)



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 8,975 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @45isodd said:
    From what I understand about vending boxes, a machine places the cards in the box, forming a pattern as it does so. Taking the cards out of the box will disturb the pattern, and cannot be replicated by hand.

    Agreed

    Vending pattern (exposes corners to potential/likely damage):

    Searched vending:

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    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,145 ✭✭✭✭✭

    if i'm the owner of vintage unopened, this evisceration phase puts me in a state of elated bliss

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    19591959 Posts: 613 ✭✭✭

    Way , way back in 1989 or 88, as a 40 yr old, I visited a small card shop near the Ga.Tenn. border. Would go up once a week. On one visit he had a 1959 vending box, last series.Wow< wow, wow, I thought. My dream come true. However. After going through the entire box , and cherry -picking only well centered and corner sharp cards, there was only 9 or 10 that I ended up buying. Most or 90% were way off -centered. The ones I bought graded 8s. No 9s or 10's. I don't know that much about 1960 vending, but I think back in those years many vending boxes were sold to venders with the card machines. They were not as quality controlled as wax. This 1960 box is unsearched{I stand behind BBCE), but I bet the cards or not that great.

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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1970s said:

    @stevek said:
    I don't know anything

    About the most precise thing I've read all day.

    But i try to be right twice a day. 🤣

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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @grote15 said:

    @softparade said:
    You dirty smelly dog you have 78 Vending? LOL

    I do, LOL. I cracked open one box which yielded quite a few 9s and 10s but have been saving the others for a rainy day.. ;)

    That's a sweet little gold mine you've got there. Very nice! :)

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    stevekstevek Posts: 27,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Some great info and pics posted. Thank you!

    Forgive me, but I'm still a bit skeptical. I don't have any vending boxes, never owned one. However I have bought over the years a number of large lots of 60's and 70's raw cards off Ebay, broke them up into smaller lots and individual cards, and always managed to turn a decent profit, plus have additional cards to keep for my collection. For various reasons, that has gotten much harder to do on Ebay these days.

    I still have a lot of these raw cards, mostly commons and minor stars, that I just never got around to selling. Most of them are in the same boxes I bought them in off Ebay. Each box seems to contain its own little distinct pattern of curl, I guess due to the fact the cards have all been together in their particular box for 4 or 5 decades. So I guess the curl factor might stand out if another card with slightly different curl tried to be placed in an unsearched vintage vending box.

    I see the "edge pattern" posted, but I don't see enough of a pattern whereby say five star cards could be taken out and five commons put in their place, and that really being noticed. Especially if a dealer has a lot of raw inventory and can find cards with similar curl from the same year to place in a vending box he just purchased, remove say five of the high value cards, replace with commons, and then sell it as unsearched. It just seems too easy to do.

    So for 19k, I'm gonna pass on the thought of purchasing one of these 1960 vending boxes. Best of luck though to anyone who buys one, and hopefully gets a nice score. :)

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