Disruption in the Vintage Unopened Market
70ToppsFanatic
Posts: 2,106 ✭✭✭✭
Have been watching the increased focus on opening vintage packs in the market with increasing interest over the past few months and have developed some new perspectives that I think are worth airing and hearing ideas from other vintage unopened collectors.
Vintage breaks are nothing new but the recent increase in the aggressive marketing of truly vintage unopened items for break purposes is definitely a new, and apparently successful, way of driving the unopened market to the next level. Not only is it reducing the supply of vintage unopened items dramatically, which would certainly result in price increases for the remainder, but the "price per slot" marketing has established some rather lofty new valuations for packs that were previously much less pricey.
For example:
1975 Topps Baseball Mini Wax Pack (10 cards) at $22.50/slot = $225/pack (or $8,100/box)
1973 Topps Baseball Series 2 Wax Pack (10 cards) at $80/slot = $800/pack (or $19,200/box)
1973 Topps Baseball Series 4 Wax Pack (10 cards) at $35/slot = $350/pack (or $8,400/box)
1971 Topps Baseball Rack Pack (54 cards) at $250/slot = $13,500/pack
1970 Topps Baseball Series 6 Cello Pack (33 cards) at $60/slot = $1,980/pack
1966 Topps Baseball Series 6 Cello Pack (12 cards) at $275/slot = $3,300/pack
These packs were 50%-70% less costly prior to the aggressive launch of this marketing strategy over the past 12-24 months. The fact that people in the aggregate are paying the prices above through vintage breaks demonstrates the effectiveness of this marketing approach.
Eventually the supply of these items to the vintage breakers is going to get even shorter than it already has been. Think about the last time we saw 1970 and 1968 cellos listed on eBay en masse as they have been for years and years. It's been quite a while now, as the breakers have been buying up what was there and either there is none left to list or the owners have decided to hold on and let the demand further drive the prices up.
I'm now starting to believe that we are entering what will eventually be the next phase of this "new normal", when scarcity for vintage packs drive the breaker to offer prices that start getting so attractive that even dedicated unopened collectors start considering parting with irreplaceable packs and boxes.
From my perspective the old days are gone and will not be coming back. With even the most trusted name in unopened climbing aboard this "train" I believe that the vintage unopened market is in a whole new paradigm
Thoughts?
Dave
Comments
My initial thought is that for the last several years we’ve been told that vintage unopened packs are worth way more than the sum of their contents because of their scarcity and collectible value as unopened packs. That’s why we were supposed to accept the fact that a 1971 unopened wax pack was worth $3000 when there is zero chance the contents will be worth that much.
Now the script is being flipped and the packs are worth even more at the prospect of breaking them. It doesn’t make any sense to me, but prices will escalate as long as there are people ponying up per slot money to drive it, which may not last long term.
Dave...
I agree w/you that the vintage breaks will drive up prices of remaining unopened vintage simply due to dwindling supply and increased demand. However...will there be a price ceiling at some point on the vintage unopened due to individual prices of potential cards in the break? Or could this lead to a new driver of prices for individual cards? Wow...$13500 for one rack!
I am hoping to complete a 60s wax run and still need four packs to complete...60, 65, 67, and 69. Is completing this run hopeless at this point due to above marketing strategy? 60s were my childhood decade and I would like to complete this project.
Monte
I'm not sure how much stock you can put into the break slot price. They will break an individual '89 Upper Deck pack and sell the card-by-card slots that end up totaling $15 for the pack. No one in their right mind would pay half of that for an '89 Upper Deck pack.
Arthur
I think this is the key question: will it last long term? Think about it... 90% of the time you're going to get a card that's worth much less than the slot price. As more and more collectors continue to buy these slots they may grow tired of the gamble once they get 5 or 6 duds in a row. It's an intriguing novelty now, and the highly publicized MINT 9 Mantle that was pulled during last year's National helped fuel the fire, but eventually these breaks might lose their appeal to the masses.
It's scratching off a lottery ticket in our hobby...……
How are the prices per slot determined? $250 per slot = $13,500 for that 1971 rack pack seems outrageous, especially since a rack (albeit not BBCE auth) sold for one tenth of that price 2 months ago.
Are these vintage breaks manipulating the prices of unopened?
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
If the total break price (excluding shipping) is over 10% more than the cost of the unopened pack/box you are crazy for joining.
Well, it only takes the occasional big hit to reinvigorate the gamblers to go for it. I'm sure the Mantle pull brought a lot more eyeballs to the vintage break website.
Not being mentioned are the large amount of more "modern" boxes being cracked and a much cheaper prices than the 60's / 70's PACKS being talked about here. 92 Bowman, mid to late 80's Fleer basketball, early and mid 80's baseball ..... you name it. Lot's of bye bye to unopened BOXES happening. This isn't just a fad IMO because it's raging hot on brand new releases as well. Times always change and we are witnessing a change for sure right now.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I think it’s great, keep breaking away!
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
One thing is certain. A new pricing structure exists for vintage packs from now on. Amazing the difference over the last two years.
You cannot determine value based on slot price. BBCE just ripped a 1988 Fleer Basketball box for $50 per slot. The box was on their site for $1,500. So they sell the box for $1,800 by ripping it. That's a 20% premium. Granted, shipping costs are included, but all rips are going to have high per slot pricing.
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ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Price per slot on some packs are high, but they do eat some bad cards sometimes. I believe in the 71 rack they took the slot loss on 3 or 4 cards based on the condition prior to pack opening.
Unfortunately my pocketbook along with a slew of other hobbies and activities doesn't allow my to go into the 1970's era for FASC BBCE wrapped boxes. My oldest is 1980 Topps unless you include the odd 1976 Topps cloth issue. But that said, while I felt the prices were high around 2 years when I put back a bunch of boxes, I am happy I did it then as opposed to now.
I like the modern breaks. For instance, last night I bought every Orioles 2019 Topps Series 1 card from a JUMBO (6 box) case for under $20 shipped. It can be a bit long watching the break on youtube though.....
Most just watch the ending recap after the break no?
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I feel your pain my friend! The best I can do at the moment are individual racks... but that’s fine with me. Better stock up on the early and mid 80’s!
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
It's a gamblers mentality that has taken over. Everyone thinks "this is the one that's going to go my way" and for the vast majority it doesn't. After awhile people will realize that the odds are stacked exceedingly against them and stop searching for that gamblers high. Whether it is modern or vintage the only one truly winning is the breaker much like the casinos in Vegas. Because, even if you win you will eventually gamble those winnings and lose.
Disagree completely on modern. Many are team only collectors and what better way to ensure you are getting that only. Breaking isn’t going anywhere but up up and away. You have a point in the really high priced stuff but there are many who DGAF and have deep pockets who enjoy the thrill if nothing else. So.... again, breaking isn’t going away.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I will get** at least 75-80** 2019 Orioles cards from the 6 jumbo and 12 silver pack break I did for $16 shipped. I collect Orioles from the 1950's to present and this is a cheap way to get current cards especially because the Orioles suck right now and were probably one of the cheapest teams to buy in a break. There will be MANY duplicates from the base set but I have binders of individual players and also build team sets. On this break my price per card is less than 25 cents. I get only what I want, Orioles, and I ended up with a few numbered and insert cards.
More money in the budget to finish my 50's and 60's Orioles sets.....
What you guys are talking about is nothing like the vintage breaks that prompted this thread. This is just splitting the contents of boxes based on who wants what, which makes a lot of sense.
I agree with CW and ArtV. No way do I see those prices mentioned in the original post becoming a long term reality. There may be a window at the present moment, due to some vintage breaks taking place— but once a bunch of guys get burned a few times by paying for a slot that nets an off-centered worthless common, well let's just say I don't see them saying, "Thank you, sir, may I have another?" ad infinitum.
Sure, there are guys that see the 1955 Mantle from that National and think, "I can get that lucky." But there's only so long even the most degenerate gambler can chase that chimera. When those breaks die down, prices will react accordingly.
For a vintage pack that might have a real monster of a card, i.e., a Mantle, a Koufax RC, Ryan RC, those are the type of packs that could conceivably generate the heat and make the big gamblers come out to play.
Lastly, it's worth taking into account the psychological dynamics at play in these breaks; just because someone is willing to shell out for a slot, doesn't mean they would pay the proportional value for the box or pack. In other words the appetite for the former doesn't necessarily imply the latter. So it might be specious to assume the value of the pack or box based on the slot price someone paid.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
^ this
I think the vintage breaks at these extreme per slot prices are a bubble for sure. It will not take long for buyers to realize that unless they are receiving 9's or 10's on star players, they dont have a chance at recouping their expenditures. It wont last.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
One part of the group breaking psychology that needs to be considered is the shared experience of the break itself.
Collecting for the most part is a solo journey or experience to be shared after the fact. In your social circle, minus this board, how many people can you really share the joy of collecting with? With these breaks, a group of people bond together in real-time to experience the drama of the hits, misses and everything in-between.
Even if you get skunked, you know your new Facebook or YouTube pal "Billy" is a Yankees fan and you experience "joy" when he hits for that Aaron Judge auto or that 1968 Mantle.
THIS is what makes these breaks so sticky for consumers - they BOND over the experience and keep coming back for more.
While it may be a numbers game calculated on Expected Value of Return for some, it is a social endeavor for others.
Just some food for thought.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
BBCE Breaks did 88 Fleer Basketball for 50 a pack including free shipping. Normally a pack costs 55 + shipping. It's a great deal.
Another factor no one mentions is bulk discount. If a card is the lowest unit, a pack, box, then case...then of course just one card will cost more per card than if purchasing a pack just like a box will be cheaper per card than a pack.
BBCE Breaks just sold out another 1970 Cello pack (6th series this time) in just over 2 hours at 45 bucks per spot. Sold out MUCH quicker than the 1st which I was a part of. The back card on this pack is grotesquely miscut OC. No matter..... just a fad?
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
The modern breakers are much more amusing to watch than the vintage. If you allow yourself to pay close attention you will see true gamblers grasping and hoping the next ones the big hit. The buy in for things like National Treasures and Flawless can be near $200 and you will see people buying 5+ spots and coming out with next to nothing. I've seen complete meltdowns in the chat numerous times after people wage what most likely is money they can't afford gambling with and lose.
I like the whole breaker concept and the "chance" aspect of it, but, in the end nearly everyone loses.
Well, OF COURSE nearly everybody loses. That is pack busting 101. No matter the form lol
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
That pack has potential. PSA 8s or better of most of the HOFers in Series 6 are worth more than $45.
From what is visible on top and bottom those cards are from the Rose/Hunter/Cepeda side of the sheet, and depending on where on the sheet the exposed cards are from there are possible cutting sequences that lead to those stars.
Off the bottom there is a 2/3 chance a Cepeda is 3 cards sbove Mike Ryan and a 1/3 chance it’s Al Downing. If it’s Cepeda then it’s 50:50 for seeing Hunter and Rose also appear in the bottom 11 cards.
From the top Cepeda usually follows a few cards down, but then none of the others.
Only 1 of the top or bottom will be all one side of the uncut sheet and we won’t know for sure until Steve starts the break.
Since we don’t have any cards from the other side of the sheet exposed it’s a crapshoot as to whether Mays, Banks or G Perry make an appearance.
Bittersweet to watch. There are less and less of these cellos left to break each time one is opened. However for those who have them it makes them more scarce and hence more valuable.
Dave
I ALWAYS admired you collation experts. Good stuff!
Not knowing Steve's inventory, I wonder why he chose to go right back to 1970 for his 2nd true vintage rip.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Just a guess, but maybe Steve is going off of the momentum that was generated after that Clemente was pulled from the 3rd series pack rip.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
Could be. Don't forget Carew, Durocher, and Brock pulled as well!
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I think he went back to 1970 because that is what was available.
Don’t think BBCE would ever do the following, but I’m waiting to see Vintage Breaks or one of the others start pricing the break based on demand or on using knowledge of the collation sequences in ways such as:
1) using knowledge of the collating sequences that would seem to indicate a higher likelihood of stars being in the pack so charging $75/slot instead of the usual $60 on a particular pack a given year
2) pricing each slot of the break differently based on that knowledge, e.g. top 3 cards under the one showing are $45 each. Card 4 slot is $65 (likely to be a HOFer). Cards in slots 5-8 are $45 again. Cards 9- 11 are $55 (likely minor stars). Etc.
3) increasing the price of the remaining slots in a break as the break fills up, just like airlines do with airline seats. Initially slots are $50 each, but when 10/30 slots sell within a short time then raise the price of the remaining slots to $55. And if it still keeps filling quickly then raise the per slot price again.
I guess time will tell
Dave
I concur, the 4th card from the bottom will either be O. Cepada or Al D., Anything can happen but my guess is Al D. and therefore no rose in last 11/12 cards.
Not sure if the first 11/12 flop between the two 132 card half sheets where each card is printed 3 times or strictly come from the Rose sheet. I guess we'll find out on Friday LOL
John
Current obsession, all things Topps 1969 - 1972
Even if group break fever slows down you will look at dwindling inventory from the likes of BbCE. Vintage unopened finds from time to time can only add fuel to the demand and will never affect it.
Private collectors who intend to keep these boxes and packs intact will drive the auction market and it can only be a healthy market. I can’t find one single risk or negative aspect to buying and holding unopened material.
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Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
If you believe prices will continue to rise no matter how high they get, then I would agree. I don’t happen to feel a PSA 7 1971 wax pack is worth $3000, so I would find an element of risk in paying that.
Side note - bbce did have some recent price hikes on certain items. Not small ones either.
In a GAI 7 slab I would agree with you. In a PSA 7 slab I think that price level is more than justifiable given the scarcity, full box price and TPG involved.
Dave
It boils down to the same arguments that always arise when prices spike in an extreme way. In 2014 this pack was viewed as being worth maybe $500-600. It was just about as scarce then. So what suddenly changed, other than an atmosphere of — dare I say it — irrational exuberance?
It’s obviously difficult to value collectibles with no intrinsic worth, but at what point do price increases reach an unjustifiable level that suggests speculative excess?
Items like a 1971 full box or most pre-1977 full boxes are sufficiently scarce as to be basically priceless. Not always easy to sell, but if someone wants one they will have to pay whatever is being asked. So one also has to distinguish items that fall into this category from ones that don’t (like a mini wax box).
That’s E-ruption!! 😄
3-5 years ago I used to be able to buy 1982-1987 baseball and football boxes at local shows and stores on a regular basis. I had my own "mini" finds from old time dealers.
I haven't seen any in a long time. I don't know if people are holding back or if all of the excess has been taken in by the hobby.
It seems there are always ebbs and flows with the hobby. remember the "buyers group" a few years ago and the crazy prices on some cards? I recall crazy prices being paid on Rose rookies. I am not so sure I would be buying at these prices, either for group breaks or vintage unopened. There is a limit for how much any collectable will sell for, the mystery is when have we reached that limit. remember the $100,000.00 Tiger Woods rookie?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I sold a 1971 wax pack PSA 7 for 10x less than today's prices ($300) in 2011
Kicking myself for not holding onto it for both nostalgic and financial reasons.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
Overpriced and limitations are on everybody’s minds these days. But I’ve seen prices continuously climb without any letting up for several years now. This is on practically all desirable vintage cards and unopened. Where does it stop? Or does it not? I agree things may flatten for awhile but steady is the name of the game when it comes to appreciating values
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1981 / 1982 Topps Baseball box break by BBCE sold out in 43 minutes tonight. I know, not the original time period meant by thread starter. But, it’s connected...
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
how does this work. Are you buying a pack, a team a player, random card???
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
BBCE does it by the pack in box breaks and by the card in pack breaks mostly.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240