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Vintage Investment cards inflated?

I frequently take a hiatus from the collecting world to reset and settle from my infatuation for the hobby. I hold vintage and forget about them for years. It keeps me sane and from making selling mistakes. I was fortunate enough to be in a position to purchase my dream vintage cards in the 2008-2011 timeframe. I couldn’t have asked for a better situation when it came to scoring deals. It was definitely a buyers market.
Fast forward to 2018 and I’m drooling at the vintage price increases I’ve seen.

I can’t help but wonder if the “bull” market was mostly due to the baby boomers and other curious investors buying up vintage cards. For those who bought 10 years ago are sitting pretty good and I’m thinking this is across the board for most vintage product.

Opinions wanted. Are we topped out in market values? Just like the real estate increases I’ve seen. Everything seems to have gone up.

What’s the future hold for vintage cards? Will we see a slide as older baseball card collectors exit the stage?
I can’t help but think that the prices today will not be sustained by the newer generation of collectors. It’s just a generational gap and cannot be expected? What you think?

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Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums

Comments

  • PatsGuy5000PatsGuy5000 Posts: 671 ✭✭✭

    Tough call; I have been purchasing vintage over the last 5 years (like the players from when I was young and hoping the interest in graded collectibles continues). I to have the same concern; will the newer generation continue to want these items in the future. Positive: PSA is seeing record number of items being submitted and the opening of a hub in Japan could increase interest worldwide, Auction houses (PWCC, Probstein, etc.) are doing well and I have seen additional price increases recently. As long as sports remain popular, collectibles should as well. Negative: seems to be more interest in “gaming” than sports with our youth.

  • stevekstevek Posts: 27,581 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Did the advent of photography lower the prices for vintage artist's paintings? No, these paintings from the famous artists has continued to skyrocket in value over the years.

    Why the analogy with cards? Because what some out there may not understand is that baseball cards have morphed into a form of art, a treasured collectible such as paintings, and that isn't going to change at this point.

    Am I saying that modern junk cards will rise in value some day? Of course not. Just like there are millions of various paintings made every day that will never have any value. However even with modern art, some paintings do rise up and attain collector status and high value. And it's the same thing now with baseball cards.

    Long term, in my opinion, a select good portfolio of baseball cards will continue to rise in value, and I think may outpace most forms of collectibles. With as always the caveat of economic conditions remaining steady and growing.

  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,267 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    I hope prices crash. I just want to collect what I want and don't give a stray cat's fart about ever selling it.

    Arthur

    I used to have this mindset but now I have a bit of a pile so I've changed my opinion.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

  • brad31brad31 Posts: 2,530 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @softparade said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    I hope prices crash. I just want to collect what I want and don't give a stray cat's fart about ever selling it.

    Arthur

    I used to have this mindset but now I have a bit of a pile so I've changed my opinion.

    The pile I want will always be larger than the pile I have so I am with Arthur. If all goes according to plan my heirs will deal with my cards. A major crash and then a huge run-up the last year of my life would be ideal!!

  • Predicting the future isn't easy, but I would guess you will see vintage cards of a dozen or two players hold their value or gradually increase while the cards that are selling to a niche group completely based upon being part of a contrived "population" will ultimately see a crash in prices. Just my opinion.

    I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.

  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,267 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @brad31 said:

    @softparade said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    I hope prices crash. I just want to collect what I want and don't give a stray cat's fart about ever selling it.

    Arthur

    I used to have this mindset but now I have a bit of a pile so I've changed my opinion.

    The pile I want will always be larger than the pile I have so I am with Arthur. If all goes according to plan my heirs will deal with my cards. A major crash and then a huge run-up the last year of my life would be ideal!!

    I'm not burdening my heirs with this stuff. I hope. I'm gonna sell it all and party like it's 1999

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,854 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @softparade said:

    @brad31 said:

    @softparade said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    I hope prices crash. I just want to collect what I want and don't give a stray cat's fart about ever selling it.

    Arthur

    I used to have this mindset but now I have a bit of a pile so I've changed my opinion.

    The pile I want will always be larger than the pile I have so I am with Arthur. If all goes according to plan my heirs will deal with my cards. A major crash and then a huge run-up the last year of my life would be ideal!!

    I'm not burdening my heirs with this stuff. I hope. I'm gonna sell it all and party like it's 1999

    Arthur

  • galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,113 ✭✭✭✭✭

    a few years ago when my focus was all over the place and i was ardently collecting baseball cards, my attention centered around a guy who died the year i was born -- Clemente

    don't underestimate the power of mystique when gazing into a crystal ball

  • lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 2,131 ✭✭✭✭

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    I hope prices crash. I just want to collect what I want and don't give a stray cat's fart about ever selling it.

    Arthur

    yup
    a true collector

  • wadevlwadevl Posts: 224 ✭✭✭

    SUPER Star players in all Grades will continue to rise (Mantle, Mays, Arron)
    Everyday Players in High Grade 7 and up will also rise,
    The % of high grade vintage 7 or higher is not growing much, compared to the over all pool

    meaning, lets say 9% of all the available (raw ,graded) existing 65 Mantles, are graded 6 or better,
    10 more are added to that over all pool by discovery, say found out in a garage, or rundown
    flea market. You have added to the pool or supply, But odds of 2 of those 10 being a 6 or better , is not good,

    Lucky
    BIGLEAGUE SportsCards
    "Respect The Hobby"
    www.bigleaguesc.com
    https://www.ebay.com/str/bigleagueseller
  • ahopkinsahopkins Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lawyer05 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    I hope prices crash. I just want to collect what I want and don't give a stray cat's fart about ever selling it.

    Arthur

    yup
    a true collector

    My sentiments to a tee. True collector here, too.

    Andy

  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,267 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 29, 2019 1:22PM

    The "true collector" quotes are a load of crap. There is no wrong way to collect. Some guys flush their money down the toilet without a care in the world and others want it to be an asset. Most are in between. We are all "true collectors"

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

  • rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    We’ll see how things change when the next recession hits.

  • 53BKid53BKid Posts: 2,164 ✭✭✭

    Key cards of vintage sets -whether they're rookies, super-stars, or highly limited short prints -- will continue to outperform others, due to scarcity and popularity...simple economics of supply and demand.

    Just watching what has occurred both in cards and coin collecting, the keys appear to me to be taking on ever greater proportion of a set's valuation. For instance, take the '54 Bowman where the #66 Williams due to its rarity often trades for more than the 210 other cards including the Mantle across all grades!

    My lifetime focus has been on the '53 Bowman set. While the set has pretty much stayed at the same or declined in overall value for the past number of years, #59 Mantle, the short printed, #153 Ford (which is often horribly centered), and the rarest high numbers represent ever increasing proportion of the set's valuation.

    PSA 8s of the lower cards are moving down across the board, and can be bought at very attractive levels not seen for well over a decade, while higher grade short prints are reaching levels that are untouchable for even high net worth collectors. Though the prices continue climbing higher due to their scarcity. I don't know too many collectors who can come up with $1,500 - $3000+ for super short printed commons which show no sign of slowing down.

    The same occurred in coin collecting the past couple of decades, where the adage became, "If you want to collect a set, always start with the keys."

    HAPPY COLLECTING!!!
  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,064 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I was watching a show about dinosaurs and some guy paid thousands of dollars for fossilized dinosaur turds.

    I think the sports card hobby is OK for now.

    Mike
  • addicted2ebayaddicted2ebay Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭✭

    Look at the pop report of a lot popular prewar cards.. many are only in the 100 or less range.

    It’s nice for the ones I have but looking for new ones is gonna be expensive unfortunately.

  • LOTSOSLOTSOS Posts: 1,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ndleo said:
    I was watching a show about dinosaurs and some guy paid thousands of dollars for fossilized dinosaur turds.

    I think the sports card hobby is OK for now.

    Collecting dinosaur turds is very volatile. You have to constantly keep an eye on the poop report.

    Kevin

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