SMR - Fact or Fiction?

Mantlefan

Recent questions about the accuracy of the Population Report have led me to cast a critical eye at the prices listed in the SMR. In previous years, most sales were dealer-generated: you liked a graded card, the dealer looked it up in the SMR and you agreed on a price in that range. Today auctions are the way most cards are moved. I collect cards from 1953-1964 and for me the SMR has not kept up with the changing marketplace. A few examples:

1963 Fleer BB #1 Steve Barber - there are about 20 graded in PSA 8 - five have been sold on EBAY in the past 6 months for $500-1000, yet the SMR has it at $40.

1958 Topps Mickey Mantle All-Star PSA 9 - with the SMR at $3000, two of them sold for about $2000 each in the recent Superior auction.

1957 Topps Andy Carey PSA 8 - sold for $600 and $900 recently on EBAY. SMR: $70.

1955 Topps #2 Ted Williams PSA 8 - went for $2300 at Superior, SMR lists it at $3500.

I could go on. These are not aberrations...many cards are going for well below SMR [usually the cards I am selling] and others are selling for many times their SMR [yup, those are the ones I'm bidding on]. For the SMR to remain relevant, it must stop reprinting the same prices month after month. That's the lazy approach and it's gotta change. Personally, I find it easier to check completed auctions on EBAY to see what I can expect to pay for a card. What do you guys think?

Davalillo

I agree with the thrust of this gentleman's comments. Joe Orlando used to devote a lot of time on prices. Now prices are not a good reflection of the market in a lot of cases becase Joe is devoting his time to other projects.

Joe, you have got to address this!!!!!

Davalillo

LuxuryWines

I agree with the tone of this thread it seems the market for PSa graded cards in certain sets are going up ... Tonight for instance a 68 Topps Game Card of Pete Rose in PSA 9 SMR =$65 sold for $122.49.... Jeff

38goudeycollector

I have a dozen vintage auctions that have recently ended or will end shortly on ebay.

The final prices on all of these auctions is 96% of their combined SMR. Some went for less than SMR, some for more. But overall I think that this shows that SMR is more or less accurate. Of course, that could be because the SMR is used as a starting point in most cases.... a bit of the circular argument on whether the price guide becomes the price because people accept that as the true price.

I think in most cases where an auction goes for a lot more than SMR, it's a case of a "common" whose value has been lumped in with all the other commons but really is much harder to come by (low pop). And where the price is way below SMR is a case where star-value is over-rated to some degree.

The example of $3,000 card selling for $2,000 is a little misleading because the extremity of the price. In reality, it went for 67% of SMR. That's not outside the lower limit I'd have expected if I was selling. I figure most cards will sell between 75% and 110% of SMR. With 50%-75% not unheard of on the low end and no limit on the high end.

Buckwheat

I tend to agree with 33Goudeycollector. The major discrepancies are in low pop commons, and I don't believe that it would be possible to keep up with these in any reasonable fashion. Until the set registry started, and set collecting became popular, there weren't very many commons available, and trades were impossible to track. Also, it is amazing how fast the price of a low pop comes down when a few more get graded.

The star cards are followed pretty closely by SMR. Recently, the SMR prices have been dropping as the market for stars softened. I think that sales prices for star cards 30-40% either way from the SMR are reasonable, particularly since all PSA 8's, etc. are not the same.

While we all know of prices that are not as accurate as others, also realize that most of us follow a few sets or players, while the SMR lists many thousands of cards. Overall, I am very satisfied with SMR pricing. My only nitpicking point is just what is the SMR supposed to represent? Is it the price a dealer charges?(retail) The price a dealer pays?(wholesale). The price on EBAY? Other Auction prices? At least the Beckett guide for ungraded cards says that the prices are the high and low end one could expect to buy cards for from a dealer.

dom

Buck...

I doubt very much that SMR is a dealer to dealer price guide. First of all it is offered to the collecting public through subscription. The immediate comparison that I come up with is the Grey Sheet for coins. That is touted as price ranges for sight seen coins in dealer to dealer transactions. Non dealers are discouraged from subscribing although nobody is turned down. The prices listed in that publication in no way reflects prices in trends in Coin World or Collector's Universe.

Any price paid for any collectible may never reflect any price printed anywhere. That's why SMR (or name pub here______) is always referred to as a guide neither wholesale nor retail.

Mantlefan

Interesting reactions. First of all, a difference in $1000 in the price of a card is not within an acceptable range to me. If your stock market account went from $2k to $3k, you would be on the phone to your broker fast. Agree that vintage card prices have been down 30-40% in the past 6 months. Looking at the past few Superior auctions, most of the 1950's and 1960's stars have lost significant value. Yet the SMR prices don't change!! That's my point. 1953 Bowman Pee Wee Reese PSA 8 cards are going for $950, not the $1500 the SMR lists. For me, the SMR is the price a collector should expect to pay for the card. The SMR has to update its prices or risk losing its relevance.

acowa

Mantlefan,

You do realize that you're asking the impossible from SMR? Assuming that the SMR can accurately state what the card is "worth"...is the card worth what one nut will pay for it?...or is it worth what 10 nuts will pay for it? or is it worth what the average collector will pay?

For instance, a 1961 #410 Haddix Thrills card in PSA 9 just went for $380. Should SMR put $380 as the new value?

<First of all, a difference in $1000 in the price of a card is not within an acceptable range to me>

The baseball card market is far from being efficient. Furthermore, even within the grade categories...not all NM cards are created equal...there's high end...low end...well centered...rough cut...and graded cards in some cases that are obvious overgrades.

Anyways, I don't disagree that it SHOULD be the way you describe...I just don't think it's realistic.

Regards,


Alan

Vargha

Alan makes an excellent point in that such a guide would be next to impossible to keep current and certainly cost prohibitive to create. Collectors of certain sets tend to know what the cards they collect sell for in the conditions that they trade in and buy or sell accordingly. The price of a low pop. card that sells once every three years or less is worth whatever the people who have to have that card at that point in time are willing to pay for it. If the competition is fierce amongst three collectors and a "common" card in PSA 8 with an SMR value of $100 and a pop. of 5 comes up for sale, is it's "value" the $1,200 it got bid up to when all three were chasing it, the $600 it got bid up to when only two were chasing it, or the $150 it went for when only the third bidder was seriously pusuing that card?

qualitycards

I do agree that some prices need to be adjusted. I strongly agree w/ ACOWA that its an impossible task. Just about all cards sell for a different price at different times. A $50 smr card can hit ten different prices the next 10 times it is on eBay, should it be adjusted after each transaction? And who would monitor the tens of thousands of different adjustments? I've had the pleasure of having bidders occasionally bid crazy amounts on a variety of my cards, a 1963 Bud Daley and a Tommie Aaron PSA-8 each exceeded $150 on 1 of my auctions, 5 times the price level. Simply put 2 bidders were in a war and the one bid $150 on each and the other topped it. I will venture to say those 2 cards would never reach that level again...jay

brucemo

The attributes "thinly traded" and rare make a price guide very hard to do. Cards with very low pop are by their nature very rare, and very rare stuff can't trade very much. If there are three guys that want something, the first two that come up for auction will go for a lot, and the last one won't. After the first one that sells very high, you might think that they are all worth that much, but it's almost impossible to know how well the next one is going to do.

I would strongly disagree that SMR should reflect the most recent eBay sales, which are often totally random. There are some cards that you can get an idea for, notably high population stars, but the prices of everything else are often completely crazy.

This is not unique to cards. You see this in some stock markets, even. There are penny stocks that are very thinly traded, and it's hard to know what they are worth at any given moment. The quote can be some value, but there may not have been any trades for a long time, so if you try to buy or sell at that value, it may be impossible.

The only solution for this is to become an expert on some cards. There are some cards that I know are undervalued in SMR, because I know that they haven't come up on eBay in a long time. There is no way that the SMR folks could know this, since they are NECESSARILY spread too thin to cover everything.

The same problem is evidenced in Beckett -- there is some very hard stuff in there that is drastically undervalued if you could find it in NM condition. The prices don't get updated because the stuff never trades. '53 Bowman Black & White #64 is a totally hard card, but it has a wimpy Beckett and SMR value, because the set is an obscure backwater and there are so few of these cards that there is little opportunity for a big bidding bloodbath. It's something like $70 in SMR in PSA-7, but it has to be at very least a $500 card, if one were to appear.

bruce

mikeschmidt

With the 1955 Bowman baseball set, "commons" in PSA 8 range in prices realized from $20 all the way to $375. That puts the lower end of the range below SMR and the higher end of the range many times SMR. It is simply to hard to price accurately.

With PSA 9 star cards, they are the most volatile part of this industry. Though prices should be smoothed out some, it was only a year or so ago that 99% of star cards sold for well in excess of SMR.

As a further aside -- please remember that not 100% of Ebay auctions are legitimate sales. This would apply primarily to really high $$$ auctions, really low population auctions, and auctions by third-tier grading companies. Add in shill bidding, buy it now, etc., it becomes an exceptionally cloudy picture. Also take into account, for example, the premiums paid for well-centered PSA 8s and 9s, or the premium or discount on so-called "high-end" or "low-end" examples.

MantleFan -- With the 1958 Topps Mickey Mantle All-Star PSA 9 card: There were two of them in the Superior auction. How much would you like to bet that either one would have gone higher (if not significantly higher) had there only been one available for auction instead of two. It is probably not good auction policy to have two similar copies of multi-thousand dollar cards in the same auction. You're flooding supply a little too much on a market where few tread.

Scoop

A very fascinating thread with many great points.

I agree that the SMR is just a guide. But I think that we are dealing with two distinct categories here.

One, those that buy-and-hold. There are many collectors who have a passion for a certain player or set. These hobbyists may or may not have an endless supply of capital. Some may care enought to "shop around" and seek the SMR guide as a reference point. Others will throw caution and price or value to the wind disregarding the present or future market trends.

Second, those who buy-and-sell. These can be collectors who bought for investment and want to liquidate now for needed $$ or upgrades on higher priority material. Or dealers whose business is entirely constituted in the "buy low, sell high" axiom. In either of these cases, it is education and experience more than any guide, which dictates success/profit margin.

To use the stock analogy, who would invest in the market without not only a guide, but a well-educated, thoroughly investigative effort?

In my case, with the market the way it is, and interest rates in the toilet, I consider the money I have invested in my set to be a sound financial strategy.

JIM

Fabfrank

I've been reading these forums for the last few months and am amazed at the amount of knowledge I've gained. I agree with Mantlefan though, SMR does vary widely from prices realized on Ebay and other auctions. The keyword in "SMR Guide" is "guide". I use it as a starting point when I make my buying/bidding decisions. I don't look at it as the bible for graded cards.
Betweem SMR, pop. reports and the info gleaned from these forums, I've learned when to bid and when to "get out of the way" of a rampaging bidder.
My motto is "It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it"

acowa

Here's one approach that SGC took. In their online priceguide they list the 1967 Rico Petrocelli card in NM/MT at $145. ( I bought my well centered PSA 8 for $40something ...but whose counting)


Anyways, they list some representative auction results below the guide:

eBay results: SGC-88 Clendenon #535 $90, SGC-96 Stottlemyre #225 $227,, SGC-92 McLain #420 $218, SGC-88 Petrocelli #528 $170, SGC-86 Alomar #561 $122, SGC-92 Ribant #527 $115, SGC-92 Whitaker #277 $96, SGC-92 Downing #308 $101, SGC-88 F. Robby #100 $73


I find their prices to be on the high side...versus SMR taking a more conservative approach.


Regards,


Alan

TheCARDKid

This topic has been widely discussed in the past on these boards. A couple points to add:

I don't expect SMR to value low population cards accurately. It's too thin of a market and much too volatile.

But other condition sensitive cards with much higher populations than just 2 or 3 (i.e. The '63 Fleer Steve Barber, the '52 Topps Pete Runnels, the '69 Topps Lou Brock etc.....cards that consistently sell for over SMR) these need to be changed.

The rest of their guide is fairly accurate (i.e. the autograph prices, game used jerseys).

I simply use the SMR as a guide. But if I'm buying or selling low population commons, I know alot can change.

SKINSFAN

smr is way behind on to many cards understand you can not account for the up and down sales of low pops ,but there are many reg traded cards way off. i am a football collector for example lets take any jack kemp card if you can get 50% of smr you are doing good and that is nothing new has been this way for years.any psa dealer will tell you that and that is where mr orlando is getting his price input from so psa says.on the other end take any 55 all american out of all the commons your lucky if you can touch 10% of them at smr rest go from 125% to 200% every day not just on ebay but look at any dealers web site its in black and white.so these are the kind of situations that must be changed.the folks at psa do a great job on many things,but are way behind on the smr guide. how hard would it be to data search all main dealers web sites and ebay sales for say past month and get a real avg.granted a lot of work but with what psa means to the growth of the card collecting world i think it would be a wise investment on there part.even futher a must on there part untill they update information correctly i see no need to buy there smr report i can watch ebay/teletrade or any action site for a week and look at a few dealers web sites and get a much !! more accurate idea of what sells for what. with all that said hail to the redskins grading psa a+ for the set reg idea F for the prices in smr

Vargha

Ouch . . . "F" is a tad harsh. I would say "C" is probably more accurate.

SKINSFAN

the grade is F as in fiction if you can not report them correct you should not report them at all

acowa

Skinsfan,

The same could be said with regards for your ability to post in complete sentences.

Maybe we're asking the impossible from both you and SMR.

Regards,


Alan

qualitycards

Overall I think the SMR guide does a good job. 90+% of the prices are in line, and there is no price guide for vintage cards that come close. I believe we are way better off with the guide with its flaws then not having the guide at all. I would think a C+ grade is in order, with hopes for a B next marking period...jay

Wayne8348

I agree with you Jay. While building my 65 set, I ended up with almost exactly smr in my set for an all psa 8 set. Granted I paid way above smr for some and well under for others but it did average out quite nicely. Actually it was pretty amazing how accurate they were over the entire set. But just because smr doesn't reflect the sales prices of short prints accurately ( and several other cards) doesn't mean that they do a terrible job. I like having a guide to go by. If anything, the smr benefits the collector much more than the dealer. Most collectors are not as well informed as the dealers and they have a basis of value for cards which they may have never seen sales prices on. Thanks PSA for supplying this to us!

Wayne

dude

I've always maintained that you can use the Pop Report and eBay and get a pretty good estimate for what a card will sell for. For 1968, the 1 of 1 PSA 9 commons go for a huge amount of money. There is one bidder that goes very high, and the price is dictated by whatever the second highest bidder bids. I've seen it go from $150 to $500.

The other thing that the SMR doesn't take into account are things such as centering. When a "tough" card is dead centered, it may bring multiples of market value.

In short, the SMR is trying to accomplish an impossible task. It's a guide and not a Bible, so people just need to remember that.

dom

Can't get over how serious we are about cardboard rectangles. They're just paper with pictures and printing on them. We put them in plastic, argue about what they're worth, and then argue about what everybody else thinks they're worth. Is SMR a Rosetta Stone? We don't like the way others judge these treasures. Ooops, that corner has a touch. Millimeters determine whether we'll pay x, ¾x, 5x, or 10x for them. Are they carried in our wallets like photos of our kids? How our sets have grown, and our tastes have matured over the years. Yet my Shannon's better than your Shannon. And you paid too much for yours. I've got thousands more where those came from, and I've got a line on an old man who used to be a vender back in the fifties. Geez how can I compete for that cardboard? Some guys are nuts. That guy bids too much for the cardboard I want, but I don't. They're cardboard. They're cardboard. Silly old cardboard rectangles...with pictures and printing on them...that's all. What the hell are we getting all juiced about?

I LOVE IT! I LOVE IT! Let's keep yapping about them.

SKINSFAN

alan i do not get paid to type. psa however charges for there sports market report

SKINSFAN

alan. i do not get paid to type.on the other hand psa charges for there sports market report

Fabfrank

This whole discussion may become a moot point soon. It seems that Ebay is considering starting an online price guide for it's various collectibles. This makes a lot of sense. They have the info available, it's just a matter of sorting out the winning bid prices and than posting the average. I believe there is another thread on this forum already discussing this.

Buckwheat

DOM,

Great Post! I'm falling out of my chair.

I love it when somebody says that a certain card is way over or under priced, etc, or that someone paid too much/too little for it. The card originally cost less than a penny! You can't do anything with it but look at it, or brag about it, etc. But for some reason, it is "worth" $3000, even though someone else feels it is worth $2000, etc.

It is amazing how an addiction distorts your mind and rational thought.

I'm off to Ebay to get my fix.

Vargha

I can quit any time that I want.

Buckwheat

Just thought I would bring this SMR discussion from last year to the top again. It seems that opinions haven't changed much.

I particularly like our late friend Dom's post towards the end. I keep telling myself.................It's just cheap cardboard sealed in cheap plastic...It's just cheap cardboard sealed in cheap plastic...It's just cheap cardboard sealed in cheap plastic...It's just cheap cardboard sealed in cheap plastic...It's just cheap cardboard sealed in cheap plastic...It's just cheap cardboard sealed in cheap plastic...

I'm off to buy some more.

RobBobGolf

I think Vargha is in denial.

RobBob

zardoz51

I did a doubletake as I read though this thread. Took a while to catch on it was from last year (Early AM coffee deficiency!).

Hey, I REALLY miss Dom. Always a good spin on things and a sense of humor as well.


Back to matters at hand:

I'm curious as to how PCGS has on their site a complete DAILY price price guide on every coin, in every grade for free, no less.

That's called "Market Support" for your product/service.

qualitycards

I'm curious as to how PCGS has on their site a complete DAILY price price guide on every coin,
ZARDOZ - I dabble in coins as well. And to be honest the PCGS price guide is just like the SMR, meaning some coins are listed too high, some too low and some right on the money. The few coins I have picked up on eBay over the last few months are generally way below the guides price...jay

zardoz51

Jay, nothing is perfect (other than myself )

How about the graysheet? The thing is like the scriptures to the dealers and is an actual tracking of sales etc. Of course for all the work involved, there is a subscription fee.


but, but, but the coin price guide on the PCGS site is free, (Did I say free???)

Now the SMR is, well it "ain't" free and is as accurate as the PCGS guide. Does anyone else here see a discrepancy?

qualitycards

<< <i>(Did I say free???) >>


ZARDOZ my son! "FREE" is a relative term. Yes, there is no added cost to peruse the values. BUT the cost of grading is very expensive, that is the tradeoff. A vintage coin pre '65 (non gold) costs $16.00 for the economy service, which is a 30-45 day service and the cheapest that they offer. A modern post '65 coin costs $12.00 for grading & slabbing. Imagine the '72 & '75 Baseball card boys popping $12.00 to grade their commons. - So my point is, that both PCGS & PSA must make their money somewhere to justify their existence, with that said. Would you want the SMR online & pop report for "Free" and then have the grading fees equal the PCGS fees?.
Don't get mad at my rebuttal, I'm still awaiting the info for the Nat'l, I'll be leaving Sunday morn...jay

zardoz51

Jay

YES, I agree with you!!! No argument!!! I am WELL aware of the PCGS fees, (newly increased I might add) as the moderns have gone from 8 to 12 bucks!!!! And they wonder why NGC has such a substantial hold on the market. Not for discussion here. Besides, the majority of sets contain less than 100 coins. Can't say that for cards. Purely a numbers game.

Hey, a DAILY price update sure isn't necessary for cards, but even a monthly would work.

Just playing devil's advocate here.


Will phone you tomorrow in regard to the National issue.

Looking forward to the autograph appearance of KISS? Should be a carnival there this year.

qualitycards

<< <i>Looking forward to the autograph appearance of KISS? Should be a carnival there this year. >>


ZARDOZ - Word on the streets is you weren't going to the National, then you heard KISS was doing the show and you changed your mind. I also heard (from the streets) that you plan to bring in your own KISS memorabilia to be personilized...jay
ZARDOZ plans to haul this to Atlantic City

SportscardAdvocate

Fascinating post that hits close to home. When Toppsgun re-introduced me to the hobby, I was a little in awe of the position that PSA has in the hobby. Out of nowhere (from an outsider's perspective - one who took 15 years off from the hobby), these guys have replaced Beckett in terms of credibility and influence. However, am I the only one that is concerned regarding their conflicts of interest: grading and pricing, grading for top customers, grading at shows (reportedly a way to get a better grade), sharing the corporate umbrella with an auctionhouse or auctioneer advertiser.

The reason I chose SportsCardAdvocate as my handle is that I'd like to try to carve a niche as a truly impartial player in the hobby. I have a long, long, long way to go to match the experience some of the posters on these boards have forgotten, but I think there is a place for impartial sharing of expertise, market information, and just hobby strategy that is available in other hobby-like or collectible fields.

People here have mentioned Coins as a model for how a hobby can set prices and create confidence in the product. I liken it also to wines. My goal is produce a newletter, perhaps monthly with collector contributions that help educate collectors on the hobby in as many aspects as possible. A part of this would be to provide a pricing guideline that takes into account activity on as many trading floors as possible, eBay, Superior, Yahoo!, National, Regionals and collect population information from all the reputable grading houses. Tough as it sounds, like consumer reports, it should be free of dependency on advertising as well.

I think SMR is close to what I seek, but my biggest issue beyond those pointed out in the thread is that I just don't trust it because it's behooves PSA to price a certain way, and highlight certain issues. Actually, I think this message board is the closest thing out there to my objective. Of course, it's moderated by big brother PSA.

Of course, as my accountant friend points out, the kicker is that to maintain my own integrity, I would have to stop collecting myself, or like journalists and analysts reveal my "positions" on certain cards and issues.

Nice pipe dream. Let me take another toke here and let people chime in on my lunacy.

Basilone

Wow....the Dom post was kind of weird till I saw the date of the post....it was nice to see his name and read his thoughts again though.



<< <i>While building my 65 set, I ended up with almost exactly smr in my set for an all psa 8 set. Granted I paid way above smr for some and well under for others but it did average out quite nicely >>



Wayne- I agree with you...it is funny when all is said and done when selling a set..how close the darn thing comes out to SMR.

John