Classic Silver Commems - A detailed ( if imperfect) look at the decline in values
ms71
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I thought it might be interesting to take a look at some detail on the descent of values of classic silver commemoratives over the past 29 years since the peak in mid-1989. I have a "Bluesheet" from July 2nd, 1989. I'd rather use a Graysheet, but I don't have one. The Bluesheet gives bid prices for PCGS certified coins. My basis for the 2018 value is the PCGS price guide, which reflects estimated selling prices; so the comparison isn't ideal. The price decreases are understated somewhat, since today's bid prices would be well below the retail value. All values are for a coin in a PCGS holder graded MS65.
I selected 10 coins at random from each of three value tiers; High-Tier (above $5,000 in 1989), Mid-Tier ($1,250 - $2,500 in 1989), and Lower-Tier (less than $1,000 in 1989). I inflated the 1989 bid price by 102.577% using the official CPI inflation calculator published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in order to convert 1989 dollars to 2018 dollars.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Comments
Wow. Nice work this chart is super interesting! That is a scary drop off in value in about 30 years. What are some guesses as to the cause of this downward spiral?
A government accident left me a former man, a potato. That photo on my profile is a low resolution selfie. I like coins.
It would also be very interesting to see the population stats from 1989 vs. 2018
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
The guy who paid $6000 for the '93 Columbian saw one in a bag of junk silver.
Back in the early '80s, about 1983, classic commems were heavily promoted & became a hot item, the next big thing. Since everybody was scrambling for them, dealers had a very tough time keeping up with demand. Prices spiraled until mid-1989. I would guess that the increasing popularity of third-party grading played a big part in the burst of the bubble. The price spiral must have caused tons of the commems to be submitted & populations must have grown exponentially. At some point, the collecting public must have realized that they weren't really all that scarce. A lot who had bought them mostly because they were the "hot item", with values growing by the month, probably weren't really interested in collecting them long-term. Once the available certified populations reached the "tipping point", the reversal started & has really continued since.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
I would be interested in seeing what the Grade Population on the coins had been 89 vs present and also how many Hoards had been released. I would say that it might be a combination of factors.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Interesting. For what it's worth, the price drop is MUCH WORSE than that. PCGS price guide is well above bluesheet (and market). Even grey and blue sheets overstate market prices for most of the commems.
Running down your top tier (August blue sheet values): Isabella $1080, Lafeyette $3300, Alabama $505, Columbian $205, Grant star $2880, Hawaii $2500, Missouri $960, Monroe $400, Panama $900 , Sesqui $960
That's a Bluesheet total of $13,690 which is a 94.3% drop
Keep in mind that the 1989 values I used aren't retail prices (like my 2018 values). They are "Bid" values. Retail prices would have been even higher. The difference may not have been too significant, however, since the Bluesheet Bid figures I used are strictly for PCGS-certified MS65 coins, while the Greysheet prices would have been for coins grading MS65, but not necessarily certified. The Greysheet may even have been lower, who knows. I sure wish I had a copy of a July 1989 Greysheet.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
It would have been a combination of factors, I'm sure. Even if the certified pop growths weren't widely known in 1989, the price spiral would have pulled a lot of the coins out of the woodwork & into the market. As the price escalation continued, fewer potential buyers would have been willing/able to continue buying. At some point, it was inevitable that the tipping point would be reached.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Great data, I appreciate the work MS71.
What a shame. I remember a member here wrote a book about the subject, boy was he wrong.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I stand corrected I think his book was about modern stuff.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I am sorry but the coin market just isn't thriving or growing. I switched my focus to Trading cards over 5 years ago and I have done much better. The trading card market is HOT!
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
jmlanzaf wrote:
jmlanzaf - If you'd care to PM me, or post here, the current Bluesheet values for the coins in the other two tiers, I'd be happy to update the worksheet & post it here. I don't have a current Bluesheet. It'd be a much cleaner comparison.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
What a drop, they have to hit bottom at some point.
With only 2 points in time, one doesn't get much of a feeling as to how (all at once or continual) or when the drop occurred.
Have a look at this thread for a nice chart showing the decline over time:
[https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1004174/classic-silver-commems-continue-their-price-cascade#latest]
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Try 1989 vs 1994 and you'll see most of the decline happened over those 5 years. And of that decline, much of it probably over a much shorter timeframe.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars
I’m planning to start collecting these in 10 or 15 years!
He who knows he has enough is rich.
When investment funds realized how small and specific the "rare coin market" is, they pulled out and prices collapsed for all but the really scarce coins.
The real question is what are we collecting right now that forum members will be looking at 30 years from now and making the same observations and jokes?
I think it would be interesting to look at the Commemorative 1936 Philippines 3 coin set consisting of 2 one peso coins and 1 fifty centavos coin values for the same time frame. There is a chance that these coins tell a different story. And that story is worth it's own thread at a later time.
As a starting point, I doubt many would disagree or argue that 1936 was one if not the peak year of the classic commems
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
While I don’t disagree with commem prices being under pressure the past few decades, my question would be how many of the coins graded MS 65 in 1989 have since been upgraded over the last 29 years. In other words today’s MS 65 were yesterday’s 64’s or maybe even 63’s.
No doubt of decline in value. MS65 is 1989 might be MS66 or MS67 holder now, grading standards are much different now.
McDonalds tokens.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Good point about gradeflation. That'd be a tough one to try and factor in.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Generally speaking, Greysheet is always higher than bluesheet. Even back then we knew about gradflation.
Blue sheet 65 for the following:
Albany -$190
Antietam-$490
Bridgeport -$115
Cincinnati -$300
Delaware -$180
Gettysburg -$580
Lynchburg - $160
New Rochelle -$260
1920 Pilgrim -$115
Robinson - $95
Total $2485
low tier:
Boone - $115
Columbia - $170
Iowa - $82
Norfolk - $250
Oregon - $160
San Diego - $85
STone Mountain -$105
TExas - $140
BTW - $22
Wash-Carv - $32
Total $1161
Part of it is grade inflation. The big part of it is the spike created by all those investment packages that blew up pretty quickly. The slide in the last 10 years has been very gradual as the linked chart shows.
https://www.greysheet.com/Publications/Library
Those who want to take a look at the 1989 grey sheet...or any other historical grey sheet.....should be able to access the above link.
Gradeflation has been around forever. One would be amazed looking at coins listed in catalogs from the early 20th century and how the exact coin grades today! Coins graded fair or good then are now fine, VF, or, better.
OK - thanks to jmlanzaf, I now have the price figures for the 30 coins in the worksheet from the August 2018 Bluesheet. Here's the updated chart, now a cleaner comparison. The "wild card" is the gradeflation experienced over the 29 intervening years, the coin graded MS65 in 1989 would almost certainly grade higher now.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Thanks for working this Early Commemorative Coin Matrix. From the late 80s to late 90's there was a club for early commemorative coins. All the major early commem people were part of it. In the end, they did not have enough support, behind the scenes to keep it active. They assisted in keeping coin prices high.
Excellent work @ms71 .
I love studying charts like this,
Thanks.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Could not agree more.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
I think their change in price is due to three things.
First, supply is not actually higher but with the Internet, it’s easier than ever to find one these.
Second, demand is lower. Basic economics says a small drop in demand can equate to a large drop in price.
Third. Gradeflation. Coins previously sold in a 65 holders now live in 67 holders. Compare these prices and it’s a different story.
That’s funny - a Psycic told me in 1989 - “sell everything in July” in relation to a coin market investment question.
66 probably. 67...not so sure. But even then, the story is not much different just less depressing. A 67 Isabella Blues at $6100 which is still just barely over 50% of the 1989 65 price.
Lafayette in 67 is a winner at $65,000
But then Alabama in 67 is $15,000 still of 25%. Etc.
And prices are down about 50% from 2007. A 65 in 2007 is NOT a 67 today.
Down is down, just a question of how much.
Good points. @ms71 what if you factored in a gradflation assumption, what would the differential then look like?
Honestly the gradeflation is not as big an effect as you think. I mean, it has an affect, certainly. But, most of the drop was over by 1995. So, that is less connected to inflation although it may correlate to pop increases. The big issue there was the collapse of the investment schemes.
The second drop started about 10 years ago, so again the proximal cause of that drop is less tied to some kind of massive grade inflation.
The only way to really know would be to track a set of specific coins. Not every 65 in 1989 is a 66 today much less a 67. You still see OGH that don't CAC. So, as fun as the numbers are, they aren't real numbers. But the graph makes the trend clear, whether the "real" drop is 95%, 50% or just 25%.
Here's the Morgan dollar chart for comparison. You'll note the big collapse of the tulip bulbs at the same time that corresponds to about 2/3 of the price decline in the commems. The Morgan's are flat over the last 10 years vs. the commems.
You don't even want to see this graphed against the S&P 500 over the same time frame. Please, please, please consider your coin collections a hobby not an investment. IF you "make money" (factoring in inflation an lost opportunity costs) great. But that is never a given and a lot of fun has been lost with unreasonable expectations.
PCGS 3000 Index. Note that it is essentially unchanged sine 1985!
Here's a winner! Key dates and rarities. But even that is flat since 2005
Modern commemorative coins had just come back in 1982. Public couldn't get enough of them. It was only natural there would be nostalgia for the old commemorative coins.
The public looked at these as investments. They drove the price up not collectors. They lost interest in classics commemorative coins around the same time they stop buying modern ones.
It wasn't just commems. Scroll up.
And, the all important question: how many collectors were there in 1982 and how many are there now? ANA membership is down 25% in the last 10 years alone.
. > @jmlanzaf said:
I guess where I'm going with this is there was outside money weighing heavily on the market. Collectors didn't buy 7 million Statue of Liberty Silver Dollars because they liked the design. The reintroduction of commemorative coins/Hunt brothers, along with other factors brought new awareness and money into the hobby helping create the bubble. When no quick profit was found, it left. Leaving only collectors behind who of course want the higher end coins. Hence supporting the key dates and rarities.
Great information on your charts. Thank you for sharing.
How have the prices moved for the classic gold commems? Is it similar to the silver commems?
Very interesting discussion, thank you.