Guidelines for reasonable price bump from raw to graded?

burghman

I was looking at some 2018 rookie cards recently, specifically trying to identify some numbered (x of 49, for example) cards to go after. The "problem" with numbered cards is that you can track their history, which leads me to my question...

Someone buys a numbered card raw in June for $225. The same numbered card is now listed as a BGS 9.5 (auto 10) for $400. That got me wondering... does anyone have a general guideline that they follow for how much of a premium a high-graded card gets over the exact same card raw? I realize the guy has to cover his grading/shipping/commission costs and turn a profit, and perhaps even be rewarded for taking the risk. But is listing a modern card for 70% above his raw purchase price within the expected range of prices? There aren't any sales to compare this to, which is why I'm asking about a general rule that folks might follow, either when they relist after grading or when they look to buy.

I'm interested in the approach for modern cards, where reprints and fakes aren't as prevalent - obviously, an enormous grading premium on a Mantle, Mays, Clemente, etc. is expected due to authentication but I don't think that exists much, if at all, for 2018 cards.

Thanks.

KbKards

There would have to be demand for the card, on an individual player basis or collected as a whole set. If nobody cares raw then nobody is going to care graded. Just because it gets slabbed doesn't mean it's now worth more money. If it's a popular or speculative card then a reasonable price bump is whatever the seller chooses it to be. If this isn't acceptable to a buyer then he can go make his own.

rcmb3220

You won’t get much of a bump over raw plus cost of grading on most modern cards. Exceptions would be BGS 10 and being one of the first to get the card graded. You can also make money on higher value cards in absolute dollars but not in percentage terms.

phelda

For Bowman, Bowman Draft and Bowman Chrome, the spread is huge for rookie cards, auto cards and numbered cards. Certain players, as mentioned above carry a premium because of player collectors, registry, speculation, etc. Although the likelihood is fairly high for modern raw cards to grade in the PSA9 or 10, or BGS 9.5, BGS 10 (rarely hit the BGS 10), the wait time is so long for self-submitted cards. When a player catches fire, gets a call-up to the majors, the excitement of having the card immediately and already graded counts for a lot. Modern stuff also goes through tremendous churn and flipping. Buying raw can also present a risk for chrome, refractor, and other surface sensitive cards, as a scratch, smudge, print imperfection, misalignment of the foil can bring a card grade way down. Often those surface imperfections can not scan well or are not even disclosed by some sellers on ebay. The example you pointed out of the raw card at $225 vs. the graded example at $400 is not entirely made up of just grading fees, profit, and taking the chance to get it graded. Part of the price spread is also less hassle. I don't want to fight with a seller if there was a scratch on the card, return it, get Paypal involved etc. Or if I am a seller of a modern raw card, I can't sleep at night until the buyer receives the card, leaves positive feedback and time has passed. So often, someone buys a rookie, the player is hot, they try to flip the card, the player stinks or gets injured and now all of a sudden they want to return the card because of a "scratch" or the chrome has print defect.