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Re: Let's Play A Prediction Game. With The End Of Cent Production Early Next Year,.........
@Kurisu said:
How long before they're virtually gone from actual circulation? I'm guessing 20 years.
They're already gone from circulation and have been for many years. Only 15% of the population even uses cash and those who do throw away their brand new 2025 pennies (even if they are remarkable Gems) or stash them in a change jar until the coins are so dirty some banks won't take them. They're worth less than the time it takes to count them. They're dirty and leave a trail of toxic rust on everything, like your hands. This isn't about politics it's about a coin that isn't even a coin that has been foisted on the American people for decades. It's about the very definition of the word "coin" and the implications apply to coin collectors.
Most of these coins are simply going to be thrown in the trash where they'll poison the landfills too. Another 20 years of inflation is not going to make a trip to the bank to redeem a handful more cost effective. By the time the last American even knows they aren't being used any longer in about 20 years (dependent on whether AI tells them or not) pennies may have no value even by the bucket full.
The mint already estimates a nearly 90% attrition rate on these. Incredibly it's the coins from the 1980's with the highest attrition rates as half the 1909-S VDB's are still around because they are valued and don't evaporate on rainy days. Cessation of production will simply increase the attrition. Coins returned to banks will be melted but fewer than 10% are likely to be returned because (did I mention) pennies are less than worthless. You might read stories about a flood of coins but this flood will constitute about 10% of what's in circulation. The other 90% will likely trickle into banks and flow into landfills and be mostly gone in ten years. But make no mistake. There will be billions of survivors, perhaps tens of billions even in 100 years. They will literally come out of the wood work for the foreseeable future. But what won't be available are the same coins that are barely available today like nice pristine 1968 cents. These aren't available because collectors didn't bother to save them and the few that were saved are mostly all tarnished today.
You could say pennies quit being one cent coins in 1975 when their practical value dipped under one cent and they haven't circulated in two decades. 90% are already destroyed and the rest are racing to meet the same fate.
cladking