why didn't we see this, I think that was the title

NumbersUsacom · October 24, 2011 4:18AM

A good video on charting and the steps of manias, with future projections.

Here: Text

jmski52 · October 24, 2011 4:26AM

The voice on that video and the name of the entity are very familiar. I'd be very wary. I heard him mention his name Kirk, but is it our buddy Jay?

Justacommeman · October 24, 2011 4:45AM

Not Jay

cohodk · October 24, 2011 1:12PM

Does the opening chart, where it shows the emotional changes during the run, look like the current gold chart? Is gold at the "return to normal" stage?

I have no idea who this guy is, but since I stole a chart from his webpage I may as well give him credit. Maybe an interesting read as well.

Pokermandude · October 24, 2011 1:18PM

Personally I think we are just getting past that first bear trap in both gold and silver.

Justacommeman · October 24, 2011 1:39PM

That "chart" is an instant classic. MJ

NumbersUsacom · October 24, 2011 2:10PM

<< Does the opening chart, where it shows the emotional changes during the run, look like the current gold chart? Is gold at the "return to normal" stage?

I have no idea who this guy is, but since I stole a chart from his webpage I may as well give him credit. Maybe an interesting read as well. >>

Looking only at a 10 year gld monthly It looks like we are either at the trough of the bull trap or we have reached the return to the mean area. Please tell me which one it is.
I understand what the gentleman who said we are at the bear trap stage, because in the overall scheme of things we may be just at the beginning of another major run up in the PM's thats if we are not at the trough of the bull trap. If thats the case then we have a longer wait. So... somebody get this figured out for us.

JCMhouston · October 24, 2011 10:28PM

Lot's of people have opinions, and some even have charts, but no one knows where PM's are going (except the JP Morgue who will push them wherever they want them). The current darlings of the PM world are, by and large, only right because they have been permabulls in PM's and saying gold/silver was going higher. If you keep saying it long enough you are bound to be right at some point. That, in my mind, does not make them the keeper of esoteric investment knowledge.

The chart is indeed a classic and not something new. This has been the way of investment cycles since there have been investments. When silver was going up 3-5%+ a day some of the people on the board warned this was classic tulip mania, and got hammered by the youngsters who have not been through multiple investment cycles, that we were just anti-PM's. When silver was hitting its highs in the spring the smart money was already on the sidelines, they got in at $3-10 and out at 35-36, most of them did not get greedy and try to grab the last few dollars of the rush.

One thing I hope everyone will keep in mind the next time some investment guru tells you it's different this time... it isn't. They are either delusional of lying to you. The modern world has been through this all before, we've seen hyperinflation, we've seen stagflation, we've seen countries goe bankrupt. The world keeps right on turning and the cyces keep right on running. The permabulls are telling you now gold is going to 4000 or 5000, and they are right, eventually...you just have to have a long enough time line. Personally I'll start accumulating again when gold is $1300-1400, silver below 28. It may never happen because I don't have a clue where it is going, it could indeed keep going striaght to the moon. But equally it could crash back to 1990's levels and stay there another 10 years.

cohodk · October 25, 2011 12:26AM

Does the opening chart, where it shows the emotional changes during the run, look like the current gold chart? Is gold at the "return to normal" stage?

Maybe its just me, but I see a lot of similarities. The "stealth phase in 2002-05". "Awareness phase" from 05-08. Bear trap in 2008 when gold dropped 30%. The the public attention phase this Spring and Summer--thats all I hear on the news. Heck, the first page of this forum was "gold new highs". Now topics stay on the first page for days and days. Also sensing "denial" right now.

Im not saying gold is going to collapse, just that my "read or emotions" on the market is very similar to the "bubble" chart.

gecko109 · October 25, 2011 12:33AM

<< Lot's of people have opinions, and some even have charts, but no one knows where PM's are going (except the JP Morgue who will push them wherever they want them). The current darlings of the PM world are, by and large, only right because they have been permabulls in PM's and saying gold/silver was going higher. If you keep saying it long enough you are bound to be right at some point. That, in my mind, does not make them the keeper of esoteric investment knowledge.

The chart is indeed a classic and not something new. This has been the way of investment cycles since there have been investments. When silver was going up 3-5%+ a day some of the people on the board warned this was classic tulip mania, and got hammered by the youngsters who have not been through multiple investment cycles, that we were just anti-PM's. When silver was hitting its highs in the spring the smart money was already on the sidelines, they got in at $3-10 and out at 35-36, most of them did not get greedy and try to grab the last few dollars of the rush.

One thing I hope everyone will keep in mind the next time some investment guru tells you it's different this time... it isn't. They are either delusional of lying to you. The modern world has been through this all before, we've seen hyperinflation, we've seen stagflation, we've seen countries goe bankrupt. The world keeps right on turning and the cyces keep right on running. The permabulls are telling you now gold is going to 4000 or 5000, and they are right, eventually...you just have to have a long enough time line. Personally I'll start accumulating again when gold is $1300-1400, silver below 28. It may never happen because I don't have a clue where it is going, it could indeed keep going striaght to the moon. But equally it could crash back to 1990's levels and stay there another 10 years. >>

This time it IS different. Europe is in the throes of complete financial meltdown, and the U.S. is right behind, along with Japan as well. When the world's 2 or 3 most important currencies go belly-up, what will the masses turn to if not metals?

The world's financial system is simply unsustainable. And because metals are valued in those unsustainable currencies, there really is no ceiling for their value.

Baley · October 25, 2011 12:59AM

This time it IS different. Europe is in the throes of complete financial meltdown, and the U.S. is right behind, along with Japan as well. When the world's 2 or 3 most important currencies go belly-up, what will the masses turn to if not metals?

The world's financial system is simply unsustainable. And because metals are valued in those unsustainable currencies, there really is no ceiling for their value.

Perfect example of "New Paradigm" and "Denial" stages.

When the world's 2 or 3 most important currencies go belly-up, what will the masses turn to if not metals?

well, you could start with this list provided by TexasNationals in a different thread:

Ammunition
soap
film
medicine
toothpaste
toilet paper
shoes
underwear
aspirin
pens
pencils
paper- to write on
cooking oil
salt
wire
wire snares
computer discs
nitrogen fertilizer
blasting caps
gloves
tape-duct
knives
sharpening stones
matches
saws
files
chain saw parts
light bulbs
garden hoses
motor oil
engine filters
gun powder
primers
bullets
canning lids
plastic freezer bags
electrical supplies
nylon rope
coffee
welding rod
batteries
lamp mantles
LP gas
flour
yeast
detergent
needles
thread
electrical tape
bleach
toothbrushes
antacid
sugar
steel wool
screws
bolts
flashlights
calcium hypo-chlorate (pool bleach, used to make bleach)
batteries
bulbs
car repair parts
tires
pepper
boot oil
shoelaces

Gold and silver are so far down I won't even go there, platinum and palladium didn't make the list. Look at the list and what does it tell you? "

edited to add: and that's just stuff or "goods." There is also a long list of barterable "services" that are far more common, liquid, and useful than PMs are

roadrunner · October 25, 2011 1:16AM

Look at the list and what does it tell you?

It tells me that it is so comprehensive and expansive that most people couldn't begin to accumulate a significant quantity of all those items. At some point you run out or find out
that you missed some items, including those not even on the list. Therefore, they would need to have other items that would be suitable in trade (ie cash and cash alternatives)
to obtain those items. That list basically goes back to the Armageddon scenario. If that occurs, you won't be able to keep your listed items from the pillaging packs. Four, sugar, salt
and cooking oil won't get you too far if you're hungry. Canned and preserved food products should be at the top of the list along with fresh water. It only takes a day or two to get
real hungry. When your neighbors are taking your food, they'll help themselves to the "list" as well.

If one superimposes the previous stock and oil manias of the last 30 yrs over that chart, it would be quite clear that gold has come nowhere near the same type of mania phase that
those others went through. Superimpose the current 2001-2011 gold chart over the one from the 1966-1980 bull market and it comes up far, far short. Recall that in
1979 gold basically increased by 3-4X inside a year....silver 10X. With most of those gains coming in the last 6 months. That's a mania. What's odd is that there was nowhere near the
level of economic and banking crisis that we have today. Thank CDS, MBS, and otc interest rate contracts for that. Once all this stuff is fixed and put to bed for good, gold's run will
be through. Call it whatever you like, mania, bubble, etc. But it's just a mirror for the true mania in paper-based "assets" (ie currencies, bonds, debt, credit, derivatives).
This paper mania is now in at least its 40th year. Where does "paper" show up on that confidence curve? I'd venture somewhere around the "return to normal" or "fear stage."

roadrunner

cohodk · October 25, 2011 1:26AM

There is also a long list of barterable "services" that are far more common, liquid, and useful than PMs are

Which comes back to my assertion that human labor is ultimate currency. But now the tread is being derailed.

Can gold be substitued as a currency, surely. Can gold be devalued as a currency, surely. And I dont mean devalued as in the price vs dollars drops. Gold could be devalued as it may cost more grams of gold to obtain car parts or toilet paper or food.

Baley · October 25, 2011 1:39AM

There is also a long list of barterable "services" that are far more common, liquid, and useful than PMs are

Which comes back to my assertion that human labor is ultimate currency. But now the tread is being derailed.

well, maybe the discussion of labor, and currency as a "receipt" for human effort, belongs in the "default by hyperinflation" thread anyway.

Back to the charts, a bubble need not follow the exact shape of the example mania boom/bust chart, nor must it contain all the elements. the example chart is a classic bubble, and through history there are many many examples of this time it not being different, from tulips to tech stocks, from beanie babies to bungalows.

we'll see, we'll see.

jmski52 · October 25, 2011 1:55AM

I'm going to get crazy-rich, buy land and cars with my own fuel storage, and grow enough food to save my whole community, gold and silver will be treasured by all, women will throw themselves at me, I'll give millions to charities and worthwhile causes, my wealth will multiply from my amazing foresight, stocks and bonds will crash so that my gold and silver will buy up bundles of companies for pennies on the dollar, I will adeptly employ margin financing and never lose, and I'll keep a villa in the Panamanian jungle in case anything goes wrong. Oh, and a shotgun for protection. What's not to like?

cohodk, the emotion chart looks more like the 10-year platinum chart than gold does. Check it out.

cohodk · October 25, 2011 2:07AM

<< cohodk, the emotion chart looks more like the 10-year platinum chart than gold does. Check it out.

>>

Are you sure? Chart edited to match size and timeframe.

NumbersUsacom · October 26, 2011 2:15AM

<< 

<< cohodk, the emotion chart looks more like the 10-year platinum chart than gold does. Check it out.

>>

Are you sure? Chart edited to match size and timeframe. >>

No I'm not sure, but we do have examples of 1982 770 djia to 2000 12,000 djia a 15 x gain. Wev'e seen sugar go from $.05 to $.60 a 12x gain and on a daily that is basically straight up the last month or so of those runs. There have been many many individual stocks and commodities through the years that have performed in the stratosphere many multiples above anyones expectations. Just saying its highly possible.

NumbersUsacom · October 26, 2011 2:20AM

<< 

<< cohodk, the emotion chart looks more like the 10-year platinum chart than gold does. Check it out.

>>

Are you sure? Chart edited to match size and timeframe. >>

Isn't it possible to have 3 or more episodes of the emotion chart take place in an overall large bull run spanning 18-24 years. I'm thinking of examples such as the 1987 djia crash and its subsequent run on up to 12,000 years latter.

jmski52 · October 26, 2011 6:22AM

Here's another chart that looks alot more like your gold chart, than your gold chart looks like the emotion chart.

jmski52 · October 26, 2011 6:27AM

Another trendline.

57loaded · October 26, 2011 7:21AM

i have to agree with "tranquility base" on this one.

jmski52 the key to the reference is "return to normal stage" for gold vs the platinum chart.

we're f'd up but i am leaning furthur away from the collapse, at least for a few more years if at all.

best we should do is a soft landing.

Darin · October 26, 2011 7:43AM

<< This time it IS different. Europe is in the throes of complete financial meltdown, and the U.S. is right behind, along with Japan as well. When the world's 2 or 3 most important currencies go belly-up, what will the masses turn to if not metals?

The world's financial system is simply unsustainable. And because metals are valued in those unsustainable currencies, there really is no ceiling for their value.

Perfect example of "New Paradigm" and "Denial" stages.

When the world's 2 or 3 most important currencies go belly-up, what will the masses turn to if not metals?

well, you could start with this list provided by TexasNationals in a different thread:

Ammunition
soap
film
medicine
toothpaste
toilet paper
shoes
underwear
aspirin
pens
pencils
paper- to write on
cooking oil
salt
wire
wire snares
computer discs
nitrogen fertilizer
blasting caps
gloves
tape-duct
knives
sharpening stones
matches
saws
files
chain saw parts
light bulbs
garden hoses
motor oil
engine filters
gun powder
primers
bullets
canning lids
plastic freezer bags
electrical supplies
nylon rope
coffee
welding rod
batteries
lamp mantles
LP gas
flour
yeast
detergent
needles
thread
electrical tape
bleach
toothbrushes
antacid
sugar
steel wool
screws
bolts
flashlights
calcium hypo-chlorate (pool bleach, used to make bleach)
batteriesjp
bulbs
car repair parts
tires
pepper
boot oil
shoelaces

Gold and silver are so far down I won't even go there, platinum and palladium didn't make the list. Look at the list and what does it tell you? "

edited to add: and that's just stuff or "goods." There is also a long list of barterable "services" that are far more common, liquid, and useful than PMs are >>

Is that a list of what incoming freshmen take to high school? Why are both ammunition and bullets on the list? Screws but no screwdriver? Bolts but no nuts or wrenches? Welding rods, for crying out loud? Are we going to start a welding school or shoot all the out of work, white collar, marauding, starbuck coffee swilling folks this board was fixing to shoot in 2008. Now did they not get shot or what? This board wouldn't have gone off the deep end back then. Don't tell me they're back as zombies? That would be a good sign of the apocolypse. You can't have a good apocolypse without zombies.

BigE · October 27, 2011 8:43AM

50% of all people would probably die off in a shtf scenario, they simply could not adjust or be physical able to fend for themselves. The pickings would probably be widespread for the rest, so I wouldnt worry too much. Maybe a huge population decrease is whats needed ends up saving the world, who knows-------------BigE

topstuf · October 27, 2011 8:50AM

Gun, ammo, band of vandals, you're set.
For anything.

cohodk · December 14, 2011 1:24AM

<< Does the opening chart, where it shows the emotional changes during the run, look like the current gold chart? Is gold at the "return to normal" stage?

<< 

Are we at the "fear stage"?

streeter · December 14, 2011 8:10AM

The more things change, the more they remain the same.

The world is not coming to an end.

As for me, nothing has changed...dateless 90% junk-out at $32-34. Thank the lord, no grief. Good 90%-out at about $36. OLD rebuy in-$20, only in certain cases. Silver holds $20 for 6 months, I'm gone--newly mined silver will be reaching market and industrial users will have altered behaviour. Silver is an industrial metal and not an investment. Have fun with it and be very very nimble on the accumulation, because that may be your only reward(fun) in the long run.

I use metals in my primary business, we change our behaviour when things get expensive. But what the hell do I know? Nothing. Flame away newbies, I've been doing this since '62. I know nothing, regards, Sgt Schultz.

EDIT: Nice chart, DK. Pretty much sums up human behaviour patterns.

silvereagle · December 14, 2011 10:59AM

<< The more things change, the more they remain the same.

The world is not coming to an end.

As for me, nothing has changed...dateless 90% junk-out at $32-34. Thank the lord, no grief. Good 90%-out at about $36. OLD rebuy in-$20, only in certain cases. Silver holds $20 for 6 months, I'm gone--newly mined silver will be reaching market and industrial users will have altered behaviour. Silver is an industrial metal and not an investment. Have fun with it and be very very nimble on the accumulation, because that may be your only reward(fun) in the long run.

I use metals in my primary business, we change our behaviour when things get expensive. But what the hell do I know? Nothing. Flame away newbies, I've been doing this since '62. I know nothing, regards, Sgt Schultz.

EDIT: Nice chart, DK. Pretty much sums up human behaviour patterns. >>

Not trying to flame away streeter, you have been doing this more than 10 years longer than I have been alive. But you say nothing has changed, dont you even have to factor in the 15 trillion dollar ( almost 16 trillion dollar ) debt that we can never possibly repay even in our wildest dreams. When you started doing this what was out national debt ? 100 Billion ? I dont even know but I know it was under 1 trillion on jan 1 1980. a few hundred billion to 15 trillion means I say something has changed. We cant possibly even balance the budget let alone pay this off. We will be 25 trillion by 2020 and everyone knows it. Why does outragous debt threaten to destroy the EU but some think its inconsequential to the U.S. ?

why didn't we see this, I think that was the title

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