My 2012 'one red paperclip' numismatic experiment
STONE
Posts: 15,275 ✭
Over the years there have been discussions on this forum about a project/experiment like this, and I think it would be fun to finally try it out.
Previous 'Red Paperclip' Thread
Now, I don't plan on starting with a measly value of a paperclip, but I think $100 can diversify my options and getting me started on the right track.
Only numismatic coins will be purchased, and not bullion or bullion related products.
I will update this thread accordingly with my progress after each transaction ---> Purchase + Sale/Trade
This experiment will most certainly mean I will need to cherrypick several coins over the course of this year,
and on top of that I will be forced not to keep any of these coins
so my purchases will need to be selective.
But it will be interesting to see what I end up with in 12 months
(hopefully more than a $100 coin 
)
Any guesses as to how valuable a coin I will end up with in 12 months/52 weeks/365 days?
Experiment will end on Midnight, December 31, 2012 (although probably a day or two earlier since I will
always be celebrating New Years Eve away from this forum )
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Current Progress (not yet started)
$100
Previous 'Red Paperclip' Thread
Now, I don't plan on starting with a measly value of a paperclip, but I think $100 can diversify my options and getting me started on the right track.
Only numismatic coins will be purchased, and not bullion or bullion related products.
I will update this thread accordingly with my progress after each transaction ---> Purchase + Sale/Trade
This experiment will most certainly mean I will need to cherrypick several coins over the course of this year,
and on top of that I will be forced not to keep any of these coins
so my purchases will need to be selective.But it will be interesting to see what I end up with in 12 months
(hopefully more than a $100 coin )Any guesses as to how valuable a coin I will end up with in 12 months/52 weeks/365 days?
Experiment will end on Midnight, December 31, 2012 (although probably a day or two earlier since I will
always be celebrating New Years Eve away from this forum
)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Progress (not yet started)
$100
0
Comments
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
My guess is you might turn $100 into $500 if you plodded along without any remarkable cherrying. But one or two really nice catches could really skew the results.
Lance.
<< <i>How many buys & sells do you think you can manage in one year, given the obvious need to be selective and patient? I would think 10 would be a lot.
My guess is you might turn $100 into $500 if you plodded along without any remarkable cherrying. But one or two really nice catches could really skew the results.
Lance. >>
Yeh, 10 sounds like a normal pace considering all the time spent mailing a coin/receiving a coin, paying/getting paid, looking for other coins, advertising, etc.
Yet a year is a LONG time and plenty of great low-cost coins pop-up in that amount time!
Hopefully the experiment will NOT include buying coins from the accepted top flite dealers we hear praised over and over and over again on this board. That means you are doing nothing but tapping into their knowledge.
<< <i>
<< <i>How many buys & sells do you think you can manage in one year, given the obvious need to be selective and patient? I would think 10 would be a lot.
My guess is you might turn $100 into $500 if you plodded along without any remarkable cherrying. But one or two really nice catches could really skew the results.
Lance. >>
Yeh, 10 sounds like a normal pace considering all the time spent mailing a coin/receiving a coin, paying/getting paid, looking for other coins, etc.
Yet a year is a LONG time and plenty of great low-cost coins pop-up in that amount time! >>
Agreed. But you can only buy one and can't buy another until you sell. You can have your eyes on many but only one coin is ever in your possession, correct?
Just saying there won't be many turned over in a year, which limits your success. Better make it a five year experiment.
Lance.
This is defiantly a hobby where lint pockets with considerable knowledge can out perform guided deep pockets.
My guess is somewhere between $500-$1000. I know that's a big range, but knowing that you're not keeping any cherrypicks it tends to bring my numbers down a bit thinking you will be looking for lower value cherrypicks to flip. Good luck with the process. I keep telling myself I want to do this same thing but never had the persistance to do it.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
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<< <i>How many buys & sells do you think you can manage in one year, given the obvious need to be selective and patient? I would think 10 would be a lot.
My guess is you might turn $100 into $500 if you plodded along without any remarkable cherrying. But one or two really nice catches could really skew the results.
Lance. >>
Yeh, 10 sounds like a normal pace considering all the time spent mailing a coin/receiving a coin, paying/getting paid, looking for other coins, etc.
Yet a year is a LONG time and plenty of great low-cost coins pop-up in that amount time! >>
Agreed. But you can only buy one and can't buy another until you sell. You can have your eyes on many but only one coin is ever in your possession, correct?
Just saying there won't be many turned over in a year, which limits your success. Better make it a five year experiment.
Lance. >>
Lance,
My initial thought was that it would be a 1-coin at a time trade, but as you begin to work up in value diversity tends to be a smarter choice.
So you may start out with $100, then double to a $200 coin (100% profit), then jump to a $300 coin (50% profit), then a $400 coin (33% profit).
So in this theoretical example I would be much better off diversifying my holdings into several $100 coins rather than 1-2 $200-300 coins if/when I reach that point!
And of course I wouldn't expect to be doubling my money on every $100 coin I own, but those coins tend to be slightly more liquid than higher value coins!
I don't believe the 'one red paperclip' experiment stayed consistently at 1 object trades over the duration.
I've thought of doing something along similar lines, but starting with perhaps a $10-ish coin, to see how far I could go.
Of course, the original "red paperclip" guy who went from a red paperclip to a house in a year's time must have had some help and/or indulgence with his trading partners.
One bad trade and it stalls out. If you can do 30% a year, that's not a bad return.
--Jerry
WS
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
In keeping with my peasant lifestyle, though (and to make it fun and probably challenging), I am gonna start with a ONE dollar coin.
<< <i>OK, I'm aboard. Let's do this thing!
In keeping with my peasant lifestyle, though (and to make it fun and probably challenging), I am gonna start with a ONE dollar coin. >>
<< <i>Ok the first of the year eBay bucks kick in and if you have any you can start for free.
Good call - I have ~$125 thanks to the 10% in eBay bucks yesterday
-D
-Aristotle
Dum loquimur fugerit invida aetas. Carpe diem quam minimum credula postero.
-Horace
I'm already doing this and I've invited you guys a few weeks ago on this forum. At the bottom of this post, in my signature is a link to a blog I'm writing. If you read through the 1st post (and oldest) post,....which is actually at the bottom of the webpage since it top-posts newer entries....there is an introductory article that gives a link to my yahoogroup, "Flipper's Paradise". At that site, I've been in a race against another friend to turn $50 into $1,000. I've gotten to $80 so far. It is really, really, hard to try to flip $50. Especially with ebay and paypal fees. Not much material in that price range either.
edit: Here's the link to the yahoogroup directly: Group
I'd like to invite anyone with an interest to try this. You can start with $80 or even $100 if you like to catch-up. The yahoogroup site is where I am documenting the buys and sells. I've flipped two pieces of currency so far. My competition used his $50 to buy a riding lawnmower from a friend. He thinks he can sell it for about $150.
I'd either like to join your efforts, or have you join mine.
Westy Steve
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<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>How many buys & sells do you think you can manage in one year, given the obvious need to be selective and patient? I would think 10 would be a lot.
My guess is you might turn $100 into $500 if you plodded along without any remarkable cherrying. But one or two really nice catches could really skew the results.
Lance. >>
Yeh, 10 sounds like a normal pace considering all the time spent mailing a coin/receiving a coin, paying/getting paid, looking for other coins, etc.
Yet a year is a LONG time and plenty of great low-cost coins pop-up in that amount time! >>
Agreed. But you can only buy one and can't buy another until you sell. You can have your eyes on many but only one coin is ever in your possession, correct?
Just saying there won't be many turned over in a year, which limits your success. Better make it a five year experiment.
Lance. >>
Lance,
My initial thought was that it would be a 1-coin at a time trade, but as you begin to work up in value diversity tends to be a smarter choice.
So you may start out with $100, then double to a $200 coin (100% profit), then jump to a $300 coin (50% profit), then a $400 coin (33% profit).
So in this theoretical example I would be much better off diversifying my holdings into several $100 coins rather than 1-2 $200-300 coins if/when I reach that point!
And of course I wouldn't expect to be doubling my money on every $100 coin I own, but those coins tend to be slightly more liquid than higher value coins!
I don't believe the 'one red paperclip' experiment stayed consistently at 1 object trades over the duration. >>
Stone,
Okay, I get this and it seems reasonable.
Of course diversity is for safety, just like any investment. All the eggs in one basket brings extreme results.
Financial advisors usually look at risk and age. You're young and if I had your talent and knowledge I'd gamble. But as I said, doing it in one year is tough. You have to act like a conservative retiree instead of an aggressive entrepreneur. A longer plan might work better.
Lance.
Woohoo! A tenfold increase in the first swap!