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The market for classic type coins has materially weakened in the last year
Elcontador
Posts: 7,433 ✭✭✭✭✭
I don't see anyone else writing about this, but it is as plain as day to me. I have bought more coins this year than I bought in the last two years. These are nice coins for the grade, a number of which I have been trying to find for three to four years.
I am not paying moon money for them either. Typically, if its an MS 65 coin or lower, I've paid around greysheet ask and good 10% or so less than the recent Heritage auction prices for the same coin. If it's an MS 66 coin, it's also for the same % less than recent Heritage auction prices for such coin.
Contrast this with a year or two ago, when I'd let a coin go if someone bid over 10%-20% of Greysheet ask. Not now. These are not easy to find coins, either. While I don't think TDN and his ilk are looking for these coins, registry set people are (looking for them).
Based on what I've seen, don't be in a hurry to buy anything right now. Chances are you will be able to find more than you think, and at lower prices as well.
I am not paying moon money for them either. Typically, if its an MS 65 coin or lower, I've paid around greysheet ask and good 10% or so less than the recent Heritage auction prices for the same coin. If it's an MS 66 coin, it's also for the same % less than recent Heritage auction prices for such coin.
Contrast this with a year or two ago, when I'd let a coin go if someone bid over 10%-20% of Greysheet ask. Not now. These are not easy to find coins, either. While I don't think TDN and his ilk are looking for these coins, registry set people are (looking for them).
Based on what I've seen, don't be in a hurry to buy anything right now. Chances are you will be able to find more than you think, and at lower prices as well.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste,
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"Sou Mangueira......."
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
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Talking with several other local dealers, there sales on these type of items has decreased substantially. The difference is I adjust buying prices and keep the stuff moving, they dont and it just sits and sits. This is the reason some of them are so heavy in (stagnat) inventory, they have no cash availability for larger deals that may arise.
A few excpetions to this are early choice type like pre-1838 stuff, still seems to be in great demand.
Line up all the truly gem mint state No Motto seated halves on the market and maybe 1 out of 20 will have the right look. But the tougher types like arrows and arrows and rays types....they really aren't out there. I have not seen a decent MS65 A&R half since FUN 2002. How about an arrows 1854-55 quarter in gem? One just recently auctioned for 2X bid and I don't think it was even high end for the grade. If I see another fugly or conserved "gem" 1854-55 half I'm gonna scream "foul." This particular type in orig gem has been taken to the edge of extinction. It's getting hard just to find an attractive and all there WM gem seated or barber half. And even the 67 grade does not guarantee you won't get a played with coin.
Just flipped through some ANA catalogs and only a couple of silver coins got my attention. The majority of the coins are either dipped, conserved, have odd mottled secondary toning, or are just plain dullish.
While prices are weaker for the slightly "off" coins, there have not yet been enough of the "right" coins to show the buying public what a nice coin consistently brings. A single offering of a gem 1855 25c in MS65 for $18K isn't gonna change the majority's perception that a true gem is worth more than the sheet price of $6400-$7100. Like it or not, that lower price is for a 64ish/not quite 65 quality coin. You will not find a gem coin for that price unless you catch an old time collector sleeping after he decides to empty out his safe deposit box.
And serious buyers/dealers do not want that sheet price to go up so that when a superb-old timer 65 comes around, they can cherry it.
But behind the scenes these "right" coins are gobbled up and quickly placed at "righteous" money.
I haven't bought any really decent coins in the past 2 years for my own set. I just see the overall quality continue to drop. And when a single right coin hits the auction circuit, it brings "out of whack" money to most who observe it. As I've said often before, 2004 was about the last year that solid gem type hit the auctions with any frequency...and a number of those were just recycled (but worthy) gems that had already appeared in 1996-2002.
Classic type really peaked in March-April of 2004. While exceptional coins have continued to go up, the amount of non-CAC coins on the market (80% of what you see on the bourse) has dragged down the general prices ever since.
roadrunner
Are you seeing this in different avenues like eBay, on-line dealers, auctions and Brick and Mortars? Or in only one or two avenues?
The typical circulated type is getting softer. Pieces like two centers, three centers, common non-variety bust halves, seated A& R halves, dimes, Ty I SLQ, tyI buff's, etc and such are bringing less and less on e-bay.
That statement certainly agrees with what I've noticed on some websites with respect to bust halves and quarters, the "common non-variety" type. Maybe I just didn't see it before, but over the summer, it seems more sellers are motivated in the price ranges that I graze (triple-digits and below).
...choice pieces bought to hold are as expensive as the sellers want them to be.
So if as expected the collector base will continue to grow, it's inevitable we'll all have to keep stretching to get the primo quality just beyond our price reach. But the price for lower-grade but still solid quality is looking better, at least temporarily, it seems from the posts above. That's good news to me!
[...]I'm seeing the same basic thing, [except for] significant quantity of all there, stone-cold MS gem type[...]real "pure" gem MS silver (bust, barber, seated)...
Is this one of those bifurcation things?
I don't see anyone else writing about this
Wish more people would write about it. The market reports that PCGS and Legend and others write are fun to read, but I haven't been in a position to get much practical use from them. Your post, however, encapsulates my general feeling this summer.
Based on what I've seen, don't be in a hurry to buy anything right now. Chances are you will be able to find more than you think, and at lower prices as well. That's why we should talk about it more! Anybody else agree or disagree with the OP's sentiments?
My state-the-obvious guess is that this is part of the fallout from increased living expenses, such as the sub-prime mortgage issues for the recent re-financers and the higher energy costs for all of us, for example.
How does the process work? Will falling stocks, more bankruptcies, things like that, shake out better prices for a little while before prices get pushed up again by investors seeking to store value in rare coins? Or will that have no effect on us little guys who are not in the market for higher priced, "investment-portfolio-grade" coins, except maybe some bullion? I know some members here have good answers on things like this -- I've seen a few in other threads -- so I'm hoping you'll post here so I won't need to hunt down your old posts!
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<< <i>I think that collectors are getting more selective and picky with the coins they purchase. There are some nice coins that have sold at softer prices in most areas, but the top of the line PQ pieces still seem to bring moon money when they come onto the market. >>
I just bid on a coin being auctioned. I bid what I thought was a reasonably aggressive bid, but I left myself a little room for a profit. The coin sold for 40% over my bid!
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
I'm biding my time and saving my funds for when the right coins come in a the right price.
Garrow
Brothers, we sure ain't talking about MPLs here. I wish I could buy some nice ( that's a key word here folks ) 65s for what they were selling for just three months ago. There's a feeding frenzy going on out there for nice MPLs.
Is it the summer doldrums with the dealers holding back their inventory until fall when prices will go up, when collectors become more active, or is that there just isn't anything available?
I haven't seen any weakening of prices in the Seated Quarters, by the way.
The 1851-O Quarter just took a much overdue jump, and the 1852-O Quarter will go up next. Both have been undervalued for some time now.
Ray
There are a couple of underrated S mint quarters that should be going up along with the 51-0 and 52-0. I've only owned one 52-0 in my life and that was a Fine I picked up in 1974. Paid a dealer all of $20 for it....that's all he was asking. Guess he didn't care much about the mint mark on the reverse.
I don't see choice better/rare date date circ seated doing anything but go up. The hard part is finding it and paying well over listed sheets to get it. A VF 1872-s is in the ANA auction but unfortunately some fresh reverse scratches will be keeping me out of action on it.
roadrunner
<< <i>I cannot comment on generics, but I have been in the hunt for better date seated quarters and halves, and demand and pricing in this area seem very strong on the paltry number of coins that come to the market. >>
Thank you for staying away from the dimes.
there has been little to write home about.
the same tired coins on ebay. very poor selection at heritage.
it is hard to get excited about what i see lately. one or two coins
every few months peak my interest in my budget range.
To almost the same degree, the same thing applies to ANY Liberty Nickel in MS 66 and ANY Seated $ in MS 64 or better.
The people who are willing to put more serious $ than the above coins require are looking for choice better date coins, and this material is, and always will be expensive. This material is not the focus of my thread, because I don't collect it. Ie., you will never have a problem selling a choice 1902 O Half in MS 65.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
We modern coin'o'sewers don't pay much attention. We just march to the mint like good little lambs.
Good morning, gents.
Joe