Lets talk prices, is PCGS price guide overinflated?
Realone
Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭✭
Most agree that PCGS price giude is overinflated, however most also agree that when you find the coin you want in the condition you want it is worth overpaying.
That being said PCGS price guide comes from "The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are the average dealer asking prices for properly graded United States coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Prices for the most actively traded coins are updated daily. Other issues are updated as needed. All prices are reviewed at least once a month".
Therefore if most believe that dealers asking price is most usually higher than the market I think we can figure out why the PCGS price guide is overinflated, just look at their words telling you where they get their prices from.
Note coin values use the same sources, i guess what really concerns me is dealers telling pcgs and coin values what to do, if all it takes for PCGS and coin values to base their value on what dealers list their published asking prices for coins are, ans I am speaking about asking prices here not what the coin actuallt sold for then one can understand why the values in PCGS and coin values is overinflated. At least in real estate the agents use comparables and that means selling prices not listed or asking prices. Where does coin collecting get off heavily favoring the dealer so much. If anybody was stupid enough to use these published numbers as a guide i would eat my coins. Can't we clean this hobby up a little and go by actual sales, strictly from Auction houses, I know it ain't perfect but it is the most realistic thing we got.
That being said PCGS price guide comes from "The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are the average dealer asking prices for properly graded United States coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Prices for the most actively traded coins are updated daily. Other issues are updated as needed. All prices are reviewed at least once a month".
Therefore if most believe that dealers asking price is most usually higher than the market I think we can figure out why the PCGS price guide is overinflated, just look at their words telling you where they get their prices from.
Note coin values use the same sources, i guess what really concerns me is dealers telling pcgs and coin values what to do, if all it takes for PCGS and coin values to base their value on what dealers list their published asking prices for coins are, ans I am speaking about asking prices here not what the coin actuallt sold for then one can understand why the values in PCGS and coin values is overinflated. At least in real estate the agents use comparables and that means selling prices not listed or asking prices. Where does coin collecting get off heavily favoring the dealer so much. If anybody was stupid enough to use these published numbers as a guide i would eat my coins. Can't we clean this hobby up a little and go by actual sales, strictly from Auction houses, I know it ain't perfect but it is the most realistic thing we got.
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Comments
Like all guides, it is useful as a ballpark estimate. Most collectors will take the series they know well and take a percentage of retail guide as what they might want to pay, or what they might want to get when they sell.
Coin collecting does favor the dealer, in that dealers make the majority of the money.
A collector that knows how to grade, and spends time cultivating contacts can buy coins at competitive prices. Collectors that lack an eye for quality and that don't have contacts will typically pay more.
<< <i>money makes people crazy. >>
I had to laugh at that on, but I do agree.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>If I can pick up a low grade early or seated dollar that I need at PCGS guide prices, I would consider myself lucky. >>
Same with Bust Halves and Quarters.
exceed the price guide. widget half eagles sometimes sell for a bit
less. i think the price guide is ok.
Collectors should use Stacks/ANR, Heritage, and even ebay and teletrade to get a feel for real market value.
The one generalization that I can draw is that there seem to be MANY instances in the PCGS guide where modern widgets are VERY highly overstated -- look, for example, at 73-78 PR69 DCAM Ikes, Kennedy's, etc. In many cases, these coins are readily available for HALF of the PCGS guide price, and this seems to be the case all over the moderns.
I think, however, that PCGS has the incentive to maintain this fiction, because it encourages submissions -- people look at that, and think it's "printing money" to buy a $10 set, pay the grading fees, and end up with $200 worth of coins.
MANY MANY times on this forum, I've heard it asked whether something was "worth" submission (I.e. will the "after grading" value exceed the submission costs?) Keeping the widget prices high in the PCGS guide probably serves PCGS' interest in people deciding whether to submit or not, when using this logic.
I don't know that this tendency is deliberate, it may just be that there is no internal incentive to correct it, as it serves the bottom line. They are a business for profit, after all...
Rex
Why step over the dollar to get to the cent? Because it's a 55DDO.
<< <i>Most agree that PCGS price giude is overinflated, however most also agree that when you find the coin you want in the condition you want it is worth overpaying.
This sentence is quite ambiguous if not outright contradictory. If you agree the coin is worth the money how can you be overpaying?
A coin that is at the very top of it's grade both technically and aesthetically is worth more on the market than a coin in the same graded holder that just barely made the grade and has little or no eye appeal.
So the question has to be asked: Overpriced compared to what? Overpaid compared to who?
If you can't attend an auction, you can browse dozens of them on the Heritage archives.
Check out, say, 6 PCGS ms 65 1909SVDB cents all in the same auction.
You will usually see six different prices realized. Sometimes there is a great difference between them.
These are mostly some of the most skilled dealers and buyers in the marketplace and they are willing to pay much more for coin#1 than they will for any of the rest.
Did they overpay or did they pay the appropriate price for a superior coin?
Every single coin we look at is different in some respect than any other in the same grade and can and will be priced accordingly. One exception to me would be the modern widgets. I confess I can't even tell the difference between a 69 and a 70 much less two 69s.
Those who do not acknowledge this and insist that a ms 65 or 66 should not sell for more than what they believe is a "written in stone" sheet price will always miss out on the truly superior coins. Dave W
The priceless ingredient in any coin transaction is the integrity of the dealer.
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com
<< <i>If you search the Heritage archives it seems most often you can find evidence of the PCGS price being realized. >>
Nice paper here! Oops, it didn't come through. I was referring to the paper money on your posts.
That's not to say, the prevailing price guides shouldn't be scrutinized. They should. I believe PCGS does a good job in keeping their guide up to date, and a descent representation of retail pricing.
<< <i>
<< <i>If you search the Heritage archives it seems most often you can find evidence of the PCGS price being realized. >>
Nice paper here! Oops, it didn't come through. I was referring to the paper money on your posts. >>
Thanks, these are IRS Revenue Stamps from the 19th & 20th Century.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>This is the reason why I am so glad ebay was created. It serves two purposes, 1) You are not at the mercy of a dealer when you want to sell a coin. A dealer will either not buy it or give you less than half of what it's worth. 2) You don't have to pay those ridiculous prices to a dealer. You can always buy it on ebay at a fair price. I have noticed that since ebay's inception, comic book and baseball card dealers have been losing money and I love it!!!!!!!!!!! They are nothing more than greedy people who detroyed the collecting hobby. >>
I somewhat agree with statement #1. There are many dealers who will try to rip coins from walk-ins. Many of these dealers can't differentiate quality from crap themselves and play it safe.
Why else would they let a seller walk away if they knew they could offer a fair price and sell the coin for a profit. I certainly wouldn't nor would most of the legitimate dealers I know.
Also many of these b&m dealers grow their inventory with rip coins because their volume is so low they have to make it up in profit margin.
I disagree with statement #2. You cannot get IT on ebay cheaper. You can get a coin with the same date and grade but you cannot get the coin you passed on because of price. There is no other coin in the world exactly like IT.
You might get lucky and get one nicer than IT (not likely). A price is not ridiculous if the buyer and seller agree that the quality is value receivred. Many times the price is enjoyable while the quality and value is lacking.
The worst bargain in the hobby is a very bad coin at a very good price. Dave W
The priceless ingredient in any coin transaction is the integrity of the dealer.
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com
<< <i>
<< <i>money makes people crazy. >>
I had to laugh at that on, but I do agree. >>
i hear ya!
<< <i>If you haven't done so already, you might want to take a look at GPA Analysis for certified coins. >>
I like your trilogy of terror guy there Mr. Beast!! Welcome.
Realone...
I don't agree with you that the prices in the PCGS Price Guide are "overinflated." I also don't agree with your statement that "Most agree that PCGS price guide is overinflated."
Have you talked to everyone? Do you know for a fact that the majority of the hundreds of thousands of collectors and dealers feel the PCGS price guide is "overinflated."
I do the prices for all the pre-World War ll issues. Jaime Hernandez does all the prices for the post World War 11 issues. I can't speak for Jaime, but I can tell you that he busts his hump every day trying to get the prices right. As for the coins I do, I look at every single price realized for every major auction...probably about 10,000 to 20,000 auction prices per quarter. I look at that trading on the national dealer exchange (CCE) every day, and I'm very active in the dealer market place at the office and at major shows. The PCGS price guide prices are based on this information and my experience in the market...over 40 years, most of it dead center in the heat of the action. But there are lots of prices to keep up with and they change constantly, so perhaps you can help us.
You, or anyone, can send me an email anytime with information and suggestions. I look forward to your help in correcting any prices that I would agree with you are wrong. But until I see your suggestions for specific coins (and send me email because I don't look at the message board very often) I have to stand by my opinion of the current market value of pre-World War ll coins as is listed in the PCGS price guide.
David Hall
Certified AU to MS 63s Saints on Ebay range around spot to 100 over. The guide shows them at 910 to 970 range. 230 to 300 over.
Same with $10 libs, I just bought a bunch at 340 average, common xf to au ..............guide is about 425.
I would recommend that any coin worth less than 20% over spot just be listed , IE spot +10%
But I think the guide is mostly used by those who bought or will buy as a feel good. When you buy a 500 buck coin for 550 its nice to come home and see 645 in the guide.
Final note:,......Considering that it's provided free along with this forum I'll finish with just a "thank you" to DH and the crew for providing it.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i> What do you do when you buy a new car, do you ever pay the list price, or do you negotiate and ALWAYS pay a lower final price. >>
The US auto companies have flooded the market with more cars than they can sell, thus all the price cuts and rebates and below cost leases and financing. Meaningless comparison to coins except for the current year's production.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
for common dates morgans I would not pay more than 60 to 70% of pcgs guide
but for rare dates or good looking DMPLs many times you have to expect to pay close to or more than the price guide.
A Class Act and incredible compassion during a death in my family. We spoke briefly about where he was starting the prices on the Cheerios. Both of us know it will go up, but the coin is listed now. There is a finger on the pulse.
The Cheerios Sacagawea suggests the price guide is underinflated. However, it's a guide. I'm hoping a few show up on the market NOW
Braddick's Discovery MS 66 sold for $9500 in a Buy it Now auction on ebay. It was in NGC plastic.
I still have a thousand dollar offer for any 2000 P Boldly Detailed Tail Feather Sacagawea below MS
On a side note, Realone... Congratulations.... HRH doesn't often make appearances here and Jaime as well as all those employed are restricted from responding. I suppose some of them would love to come here and say a few things to some of the people that come here and type remarks about the company. I cannot imagine a better kind of job than working with coins and around them. The price guide surely must be difficult to maintain. Logistically speaking... a nightmare.
Did you know that Kool Aid originated in Nebraska and that the inference to it is in regards to the Guyana Massacre where people trusted the reverend Jim Jones and drank a death drink ?
I make fun of the way people use it around here.
I like the Kool Aid Man... cuz he's Kool.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If the PCGS price guide is so good, why doesn't PCGS use it when they buy back their mistakes?
Hmmmmm is right. I got questions, too.
Why in the world are these toned coins bringing such money ?
I'd like to know why PCGS doesn't hire people to deal with certain things more expeditiously - updating prices, adding registry sets (heck, we've been waiting YEARS for a Roosevelt dime proof w/varieties 1946-date set!!!!!!!), whatever.
There are concerned people that would actually help out for free for the good of the hobby but they've been rebuffed. I really don't understand the (perhaps arrogant) mindset.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.