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The Passion of the Platinums and Growing Popularity
COINB0Y
Posts: 4,505
It astounds me to read all of the "sour grapes" about these "coins" just because they are modern.
They all spend the same.
The fact is from my little CoinBoy understanding of the basics of coin collecting;, I read that there are three factors that decide how Valuable the coin is relative to the Market and the value all other coin(s) competing against it:
1.) Rarity - number of pieces and most important, the number that survive (*check* - see list above)
2.) Condition/Grade - level of preservation... (*check* - no 'secret sauce' or 'scrubbing bubbles' needed to get a *good* grade for this series)
3.) Popularity - (*check*) When I take the three basics and really focus on this third basic, i.e. Popularity, can anyone tell me the last time a modern sold-out by the Mint and that was priced over $2,500 and nearly doubling within a week of a close out? Is there a comp out there we can measure this against? The 2006 American Eagle 20th Anniversary Gold 3 Coin Set? with 10K RP? ok, anything else? Some additional *Popularity Growth Factors* that are just exploding right now for the Moderns and the Plats:
a.) These coins are being collected. The Plats have had 10 years to not only build a base, but has seen the Mint aggressively promoting them to a growing, World-wide coin collecting base. Selling Coins on Cable TV? Sounds as dumb as Poker on TV. Look at the chumps who bought those State Quarter Plat/Gold dipped sets!! (count me in that group ;.)
b.) It's Platinum, 15 times rarer than Gold, like it or not. The melt to price ration of the retail price makes the foundation of the initial investment a no-brainer.
c.) Like it or not with the State Quarters and now the Presidential Dollars, their Wives?!, etc. and all you are going to see is coin-collecting just get bigger. In the last 10 years, the Mint is leading the effort to bring this 'hobby' back from the dead and neophytes like me who use to collect coins in the 60's/70's are in the *right* marketing demographic to make thi$ a HOME RUN.
d.) As stated, the US Mint’s marketing is very good. We really have to admit, it is actually excellent when you think that it is the Federal Government. They have a great return policy (that most of us exploit regularly), almost 24/7 Phone help.
e.) Then, we have the shows like on the Discovery Channel - "Secretes of the Mint” for example. This is great stuff for grabbing a new generation to expand upon. Wow, to actually see how the do it at WestPoint is fascinating. (BTW, look for this show next weekend for two nights)
F.) The 3 Branches of Govn't Series starting in 2006 for the Plats + the 11th...er...I mean 10th Anniversary Plat Set coming out. I’ll bet that this is under 10K sets ;>
I think this is a winner RIGHT NOW and it will only get bigger as the Legend of the Lowest Mintage in almost 100 years gets out!
Here is a sharpened version of "A PERFECT STORM" giving some speculation on what might have happened:
In 2005, US Mint had a total Mintage of Unc (No “W”) of:
1 ounce Platinum = 6,310
½ ounce Platinum = 9,013
¼ ounce Platinum = 12,013
1/10 ounce Platinum = 14,013
In 2004, US Mint had a total Mintage of Unc (No “W”) of:
1 ounce Platinum = 7,009
½ ounce Platinum = 13,236
¼ ounce Platinum = 18,010
1/10 ounce Platinum= 15,010
2004-2005, the Mint decides to make a sub-class of Unc Bullion to sell to public beyond the normal Plat Unc Bullion sale to dealers for 2006. This will be given a “W” mark to distinguish this type of coin from dealer bullion.
By mid-2005 to the start of 2006, Platinum is starting its run from $875 to $1,000 an oz. Dealer Unc (No “W”) Plat mintages show a drop from 2004 to 2005. In fact, the 1/4 oz. Dealer Unc (No “W”) mintages drop from 18k coins to 14K, almost 33% from 2004 to 2005.
We move on....Platinum spikes from Dec. 2005 to mid-2006 from $1,000 to almost $1,300. By May-June 2006, there is no doubt that shivers are sent thru the planners at the Mint. Taking it further, I suspect the '“W”-Unc' run was the 2nd of the three Plat runs for 2006 at WestPoint. Thus, the '“W”-Unc' run was begun right when Platinum was near its’ Peak Price.
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cfm?action=sales&year=2006
Using the link (1) above look at the reported Gap in the 2006 Platinum Bullion Sales from May-September. It states that no dealer purchased any 1oz. during that time? Hmmm…. Maybe it was because there were none, all because the Mint was busy stamping the publics' 'W' series?
CoinBoy thinks this is the period of time that the folks at the Mint planning group over-reacted and decided to cut the 'W-Unc' production. Perhaps, during a May/June monthly sales review, the Mint decides to adjust downward what they figured the 'W-Unc' runs should be so as not to pull away from any remaining (No 'W') Dealer sales for the rest of the year during this time of spiking prices.
Further, with reduce production ordered, wouldn’t the Mint attempt to minimize expenses and maximize the die output on the publics now reduced 'W-Unc' production run made? After all, Platinum is a tough stamp. If this conjecture is accepted, it is easy to consider that some ‘bean-counter type’ weighed in and helped factor in a final mintage adjustment by providing some neat, ‘executive decision making’ information; such as ‘we can only make X-number of coins/per die’ + set-up time for an additional run makes this very cost prohibited.
By taking this bit of thinking, it is easy to understand why the result of this Perfect Storm during the early part of 2006 resulted in a very, very low mintage of the 2006 American Eagle Platinum “W-Unc” series
Listed Final Sales Number given by US Mint:
2006 American Eagle Platinum “W-Unc” 4-Coin Sets: 2,000 units
$100 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 500 units + 2,000 for sets = (2,500 Total)
$ 50 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 650 units + 2,000 for sets = (2,650 Total)
$ 25 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 700 units + 2,000 for sets = (2,700 Total)
$ 10 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 1,700 units + 2,000 for sets = (3,700 Total)
Thanks again ericj96 for a great, great call on this series.
___________________________
(1) I note that in this 2006 Chart and for BOTH the 2004 and 2005 Charts that the figures posted almost appear to be mintage numbers, rather than actual sales. Further inquiry to the US Mint or FOIA files should be pursued to get to the bottom of this.
They all spend the same.
The fact is from my little CoinBoy understanding of the basics of coin collecting;, I read that there are three factors that decide how Valuable the coin is relative to the Market and the value all other coin(s) competing against it:
1.) Rarity - number of pieces and most important, the number that survive (*check* - see list above)
2.) Condition/Grade - level of preservation... (*check* - no 'secret sauce' or 'scrubbing bubbles' needed to get a *good* grade for this series)
3.) Popularity - (*check*) When I take the three basics and really focus on this third basic, i.e. Popularity, can anyone tell me the last time a modern sold-out by the Mint and that was priced over $2,500 and nearly doubling within a week of a close out? Is there a comp out there we can measure this against? The 2006 American Eagle 20th Anniversary Gold 3 Coin Set? with 10K RP? ok, anything else? Some additional *Popularity Growth Factors* that are just exploding right now for the Moderns and the Plats:
a.) These coins are being collected. The Plats have had 10 years to not only build a base, but has seen the Mint aggressively promoting them to a growing, World-wide coin collecting base. Selling Coins on Cable TV? Sounds as dumb as Poker on TV. Look at the chumps who bought those State Quarter Plat/Gold dipped sets!! (count me in that group ;.)
b.) It's Platinum, 15 times rarer than Gold, like it or not. The melt to price ration of the retail price makes the foundation of the initial investment a no-brainer.
c.) Like it or not with the State Quarters and now the Presidential Dollars, their Wives?!, etc. and all you are going to see is coin-collecting just get bigger. In the last 10 years, the Mint is leading the effort to bring this 'hobby' back from the dead and neophytes like me who use to collect coins in the 60's/70's are in the *right* marketing demographic to make thi$ a HOME RUN.
d.) As stated, the US Mint’s marketing is very good. We really have to admit, it is actually excellent when you think that it is the Federal Government. They have a great return policy (that most of us exploit regularly), almost 24/7 Phone help.
e.) Then, we have the shows like on the Discovery Channel - "Secretes of the Mint” for example. This is great stuff for grabbing a new generation to expand upon. Wow, to actually see how the do it at WestPoint is fascinating. (BTW, look for this show next weekend for two nights)
F.) The 3 Branches of Govn't Series starting in 2006 for the Plats + the 11th...er...I mean 10th Anniversary Plat Set coming out. I’ll bet that this is under 10K sets ;>
I think this is a winner RIGHT NOW and it will only get bigger as the Legend of the Lowest Mintage in almost 100 years gets out!
Here is a sharpened version of "A PERFECT STORM" giving some speculation on what might have happened:
In 2005, US Mint had a total Mintage of Unc (No “W”) of:
1 ounce Platinum = 6,310
½ ounce Platinum = 9,013
¼ ounce Platinum = 12,013
1/10 ounce Platinum = 14,013
In 2004, US Mint had a total Mintage of Unc (No “W”) of:
1 ounce Platinum = 7,009
½ ounce Platinum = 13,236
¼ ounce Platinum = 18,010
1/10 ounce Platinum= 15,010
2004-2005, the Mint decides to make a sub-class of Unc Bullion to sell to public beyond the normal Plat Unc Bullion sale to dealers for 2006. This will be given a “W” mark to distinguish this type of coin from dealer bullion.
By mid-2005 to the start of 2006, Platinum is starting its run from $875 to $1,000 an oz. Dealer Unc (No “W”) Plat mintages show a drop from 2004 to 2005. In fact, the 1/4 oz. Dealer Unc (No “W”) mintages drop from 18k coins to 14K, almost 33% from 2004 to 2005.
We move on....Platinum spikes from Dec. 2005 to mid-2006 from $1,000 to almost $1,300. By May-June 2006, there is no doubt that shivers are sent thru the planners at the Mint. Taking it further, I suspect the '“W”-Unc' run was the 2nd of the three Plat runs for 2006 at WestPoint. Thus, the '“W”-Unc' run was begun right when Platinum was near its’ Peak Price.
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cfm?action=sales&year=2006
Using the link (1) above look at the reported Gap in the 2006 Platinum Bullion Sales from May-September. It states that no dealer purchased any 1oz. during that time? Hmmm…. Maybe it was because there were none, all because the Mint was busy stamping the publics' 'W' series?
CoinBoy thinks this is the period of time that the folks at the Mint planning group over-reacted and decided to cut the 'W-Unc' production. Perhaps, during a May/June monthly sales review, the Mint decides to adjust downward what they figured the 'W-Unc' runs should be so as not to pull away from any remaining (No 'W') Dealer sales for the rest of the year during this time of spiking prices.
Further, with reduce production ordered, wouldn’t the Mint attempt to minimize expenses and maximize the die output on the publics now reduced 'W-Unc' production run made? After all, Platinum is a tough stamp. If this conjecture is accepted, it is easy to consider that some ‘bean-counter type’ weighed in and helped factor in a final mintage adjustment by providing some neat, ‘executive decision making’ information; such as ‘we can only make X-number of coins/per die’ + set-up time for an additional run makes this very cost prohibited.
By taking this bit of thinking, it is easy to understand why the result of this Perfect Storm during the early part of 2006 resulted in a very, very low mintage of the 2006 American Eagle Platinum “W-Unc” series
Listed Final Sales Number given by US Mint:
2006 American Eagle Platinum “W-Unc” 4-Coin Sets: 2,000 units
$100 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 500 units + 2,000 for sets = (2,500 Total)
$ 50 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 650 units + 2,000 for sets = (2,650 Total)
$ 25 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 700 units + 2,000 for sets = (2,700 Total)
$ 10 2006 Am. Eagle Plat “W-Unc”: 1,700 units + 2,000 for sets = (3,700 Total)
Thanks again ericj96 for a great, great call on this series.
___________________________
(1) I note that in this 2006 Chart and for BOTH the 2004 and 2005 Charts that the figures posted almost appear to be mintage numbers, rather than actual sales. Further inquiry to the US Mint or FOIA files should be pursued to get to the bottom of this.
0
Comments
Your numismatic acumen(I went to private school) is most prevalent.
Of course, who am I......"Always a lurker, finally a learner."
I like your hutzpah tonight....you make a lot of good points.
Keep up the great posts.........Now, I'm most excited about getting my Plat 1oz'r by 10:30am tomorrow.
The true modern "rarities" are typically those that are part of a series collected by a large number of people (which platinum coins are not), and typically show their demand long after the minting has stopped. (See the 1999 Silver Proofs, or the 1995-W Silver Eagle. Again, both parts of series that your everyday Joe would typically collect and be able to afford. If you are a serious collector of platinum coins then you are wealthy and you are not your everyday Joe. That's the truth).
I think a good analogy for these platinum coins is the popularity of wines. When the movie 'Sideways' came out, suddenly there was a MASSIVE popularity of wine and wine-related items. As a result, the prices of vintage wines went VERY high as more people knew about them and suddenly everybody wanted to have a "good wine". In addition, you also had people coming along and suddenly acting as though they were experts on the subject and wouldn't shut up about it. Everywhere you looked, there was someone mentioning wine or how they can pick out a good wine, etc. etc. Soon after the movie left theaters, however, things began to return to normal as the "wine scene" left the public spotlight. It's still not the same as it was before Sideways came out, but it's a lot closer to normal than it was. I think these platinum coins are going to see the same fate.
Thanks Fellas!
BTW, here is the listing for Secrets of the U.S. Mint on the Travel Channel:
DEC 31 2006 @ 02:00 AM
JAN 02 2007 @ 01:00 PM
Certainly some of your points are valid. However, how do you explain the 2004 platinum proof set? It has been out there long enough for its hype to die down but it continues to demand a pretty large premium. I think the 2006 Unc W sets are in the same league imo.
--K
You make a lot of valid contrarian arguments, yet rational arguments.
I believe the NUMBER ONE thing keeping these APE's in the limelight is the incredibly low mintages.
What major Modern set can boast those low #'s???
I look forward to your reply(s).
<< <i>Jdurg,
Certainly some of your points are valid. However, how do you explain the 2004 platinum proof set? It has been out there long enough for its hype to die down but it continues to demand a pretty large premium. I think the 2006 Unc W sets are in the same league imo.
--K >>
I don't think the 2004 set ever had the "ultra-high" popularity of the current 2006 uncirculated set. I think a lot of the purchases of this year's rendition is caused by speculators who bought a lot in hopes that there would be a massive demand for them. If you have a limited supply of coins, but all the coins were purchased by speculators and not collectors, that demand will soon fade away. The 2004 proofs have more overall demand from collectors due to the fact that the design on them is beautiful and back then the proofs were the only way to buy platinum directly from the mint.
Don't get me wrong, I do think that these platinum coins are going to hold a nice price over their purchase cost, but I just don't see the massive "no need to work, I can retire now thanks to these sets" type of hype that has befallen them over these last few weeks.
<< <i>Jdurg, that was a beautiful post.
You make a lot of valid contrarian arguments, yet rational arguments.
I believe the NUMBER ONE thing keeping these APE's in the limelight is the incredibly low mintages.
What major Modern set can boast those low #'s???
I look forward to your reply(s). >>
Thanks. I think every good discussion needs to have two sides to the coin (no pun intended), and COINBOY did a great job of the positive side so I had to take up the back end.
I honestly think that the true gems that will hold their value over time are the items that tend to slip through the limelight. Things like the 1999 Silver Proof sets and the 1995-W Silver American Eagle Proofs are great examples of this. At the time, there wasn't a lot of talk about them as they were just the "standard mint offerings". Later on, the value of these items went up not because of speculation, but because of true demand. I say give these Pt coins a good five or six years to see if the price is from true demand, or speculative demand.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Don't get me wrong, I do think that these platinum coins are going to hold a nice price over their purchase cost, but I just don't see the massive "no need to work, I can retire now thanks to these sets" type of hype that has befallen them over these last few weeks. >>
So true about the "no need to work" remark!
What really cracks me up is how unpopular the forum initially thought of the Unc platinums. Now every other thread is about them. I personally do not mind the threads as I truly do like this series and do look forward to see what the mint does with the 10th anniversary.
Dan
You make excellent points, and I want to seize on this: "People these days have very short attention spans and what's "popular" now may not be in a few short moments,"
I totally agree!
This is the appeal of the Moderns to this new, huge ADD coin-buying base.
I would love to start collecting the Franklins, for example. My first buy a few weeks ago was a "Bugs Bunny". But hey, as I look up the registry, I will tell you that the thought of getting a collection of Franklins' is so freaking daunting to me, that I'd just rather collect the recent low-mintage 10 year span of the (4) Plat Coins per year.
Hey, I own part of a business I work at it 60+ hrs. a week, I have three little kids, a great wife and I need a hobby, but to do it right, it still not need to be an a treasure-hunting obsession, because that ain't fun! Life is way too short!
Some of the guys sniffing their noses at this type of collecting had better not be Dealers, because THAT IS THE new MARKET and that is what some are and will be making a killing on. I think I hear some of the Plat Pros on this Forum shouting “Amen, brother!”
If you sell "The Collection that is Possible" , not “The Collection that will take me 2 life-times and a Million bucks (which ever comes first)", I will tell you what 95% of the new collecting base will pick.
This nuance of the 'possible' versus 'the improbable' is what makes the moderns so appealing in this day and age.
The Franklins? I will dabble in them but I will be forced to love them from afar.
We need to get back to our normal infuriating,
obnoxious and irrelevant arguing.
By the way , very informative thread Coinboy.
Camelot
1. I'm keeping my day job, but I'm betting that these coins will become a modern legend. Some day you'll go onto EBAY and you won't see two dozen listings all saying "rare". They'll be few and far between.
2 When I saw these uncirculated Plats on "Coin Vault", and I saw the asking prices, I felt great because it got the word out that there is something out there called "Platinum Eagles" and that they are very rare and exotic. I thought it was doubly great that not even the great "Coin Vault" show had any 1 oz coins to sell. They had the fractionals and the 4 coin set, but they couldn't get the 1 oz.
3. It seems that there are so many people in the coin hobby who will spend tons of money to have something rare. Why would someone pay thousands of dollars for a proof Silver Eagle that looks like all the others but has "1995" on it? I don't get it, but the people paying the money do.
4. The long term price trend is precious metals is up.
5. I don't see any way to actually lose money on this. It's a double play: precious metal and numismatic rarity. Make a little and maybe a lot, but not lose.
I guess I just think it's a bit too early to be speculating as heavily as many here have been. Then again, like many financial decisions in life, if you don't speculate early your only option is to buy in at a much higher price later on down the road.
Is this the same every day Joe that paid $2000.00++ for A silver ASE REV PR. $1 NGC or PCGS PR-70 ?? The Nice well done classic design used on the 2006-W Unc. Reverse sold me the first time I saw it. I now will be a U.S Eagle Platinum collector of LOW mintage future rarities and see if I can complete a set. By the way if you asked most coin dealers about the American Eagle Silver Dollar as a investment collectable before 1992 you would have been told these were bullion not collector coins. Every coin type starts to gain collectors as time goes by and U.S. Platinum Eagles are now 10 years old and just got a lot of new interest
with the 2006-W unc's .
Retired Coin Shop Owner .
Still Collecting
Love my Grandkids and my German Shepherd Dogs . Kind of like my wifes Cat.
prepared to let my investment rest for
a few years. I did not buy for a fast flip
but rather for the long haul.
Camelot
It seems pretty simple to me.
I will confess, at first, I BOUGHT for the Flip and then I was overwhelmed by second thoughts. I am now staying for the long haul.
The discussions on this Fourm really yield some great POVs. I really don't know who is a dealer or just an avid collector or both.
Bottomline for me, is that the wisdom of many here is a value beyond measure.
The 1995 W was shunned by collectors of this series when it first came out because no one wanted to pay the $1000 to get it in the set with the AGE's. The same reasoning goes for the 2006 W Plats. Too expensive. No one really knows what the collector base for these coins are or will be. I guess we will see in 10 years. I remember when the cherrio sacs could be had for $2500, now try to get that coin for less than $9000. The one thing the 2006 Plat W's have in their favor is the low mintage as far as a wide collector base only the future can tell. Rarity has always been a factor on the popularity of any U.S. coin.
Box of 20
In a few years, I will have all three with my 2006W, Platinum , Mint set and the 1 oz
coins.
Camelot
<< <i>I always wanted to own something beautiful, rare and very expensive.
In a few years, I will have all three with my 2006W, Platinum , Mint set and the 1 oz
coins.
I'm so excited about my 1pc. 1oz. 2006W.......wish I had bought more in those last buying hours!!!!
Guess the 'Platinum Gremlin' was on my mind.......BIG MISTAKE!!!!
Platinum is quite pricey......but, you just watch......it will catch on..........
.................just read this board and see!!!!!!!!!!!
COINB0Y. Excellent outline for discussion. Thank you. Like Goldbully said: "I like your hutzpah tonight....you make a lot of good points."
KeithinMD. I think your point that "Initially, I think the high price over melt scared some away from purchasing." is quite accurate, and we have learned from many very strongly stated posts from Laura that there is much money, new and old, coming into the market, which may support reasoning that the "high price over melt scaring collectors away" may be a thing of the past.
Jdurg. Thank you for your ability to present your opposing opinion like a gentleman. I hope that your analogy concerning wine is accurate because I see that the growth in the wine industry which started decades ago, is anything but temporary, and I don't think that those who have converted hundreds of thousands of acres of crop land across the country have done so for a short-term gain.
Specific plat. issues such as the '04 coins you mentioned may not receive "ultra-high" popularity as "that boat has sailed". How popular can that one issue become with such a small mintage? There are many other issues that will rival the '04, and collectively they will receive ultra-high popularity in my opinion, and for that reason, in time, the plats will not fall out of favor. I really do not think anyone expects to retire on a few good years of plat. coin investing, however, I can see many years of enjoyment ahead for collectors, with a very good chance of collections rising in value for a good long time as well. I believe that your "five to six year" test period has come and gone, and plats have found true demand, and passed this test beyond most observer's expectations.
Thanks again COINB0Y. Great job!
As I have been saying on these boards for a few years already, "I like plats. This will be a lot of fun. Enjoy the ride."
ps. tradecoin, welcome to the boards.
Dan: This is true and my level is now even higher today ($7,400) despite the probable lower mintage "w" Unc. coins. I would happily buy (10) more 04 Proof sets tomorrow if offered to me. While the "w" MS Plat coins are the new "freshman class" of Plat scarcities , make no mistake about it that the 2004 Proof Plats are the "seniors" on campus.
Wondercoin.
Those 20th Anniversary Gold sets were produced to the tune of 10,000 sets. I don't recall anyone slamming them the way these Platinum rarities are being slammed. All I know is I got a bunch of these Platinum Coins, I'm happy. Better to be on the inside looking out, I sez.
Anyway I enjoyed your analysis and enjoy your enthusiasm for the series.
<< <i>Did the 3-pc 2006 Gold 20th Anniversary Sets get all this dung thrown at them? >>
Only so much dung can fit on one bandwagon.
I think the mint should make a first offer of the 2007 platinums, only to those who bought the 2006 coins. 2007 will be put-up-or-shut-up time on this series, so somebody bookmark this thread. Will be neat to come back and see who pooped 2006's and jumped all over the 2007's.
Either way, I'm still into Platinum Eagles.
With regard to the original post, while the uncirculated set is almost obviously a good buy at the issue price, I am not sure that the mint's move towards Presidential dollars and first wife coins bodes well for the price of mint products in the future. Perhaps we are not yet near the saturation point, but at some point, there is a danger of reaching it. When that happens, I am not sure where platinum will fall in collectors' priorities.
(On a different subject -- regarding high reliefs saints -- I think it is strange to put these in the "bad deal" category. They are beautiful coins with a long history of demand. The price may seem high relative to populations, but why does this make them a bad deal? Is someone holding back a hoard? Is the due to short term hype? Is demand likely to fall in the near future?)
<< <i>
The moderns market -- especially things like new Mint bullion issues -- is more mercurial. I think the perception is that the valuations are likely to fluctuate more and that some fear a "tulip mania" in these coins. As a result, few want to make markets in these coins. Also, right or wrong, the perception is that there are "many more waiting to be found." I think the people who don't want to make markets in these coins (like moderns in general) might be thinking along these lines, that there are just a lot more very high-grade specimens waiting to be found. In some cases they may be right but in some cases I suspect they're wrong. >>
There's probably a lot of truth here but it may be more true that most
dealers just don't want to sully their hands in moderns. They consider
stuff made after 1964 to be dross and even if they liked some of the coins
they fear their regular customers will think less of them for dealing in junk.
The moderns grew up after the advent of the internet or it might have taken
many more years.
1.) Rarity - number of pieces and most important, the number that survive (*check* - see list above)
2.) Condition/Grade - level of preservation... (*check* - no 'secret sauce' or 'scrubbing bubbles' needed to get a *good* grade for this series)
3.) Popularity - (*check*) When I take the three basics and really focus on this third basic, i.e. Popularity, can anyone tell me the last time a modern sold-out by the Mint and that was priced over $2,500 and nearly doubling within a week of a close out? Is there a comp out there we can measure this against? The 2006 American Eagle 20th Anniversary Gold 3 Coin Set? with 10K RP? ok, anything else? Some additional *Popularity Growth Factors* that are just exploding right now for the Moderns and the Plats ""
This does not necessarily mean that the PLATS will become guaranteed WINNERS. I cite an example.
Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum.
This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential. IMHO, the Plats are promotion "coins" minted for investors, not collectors. Please dont think I am "bashing" them, as I am not. I think they are a great opportunity to make a few bucks. I will. And then I will reinvest that new found money into a truely scarce series.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I think one of the biggest culprits here is the US Mint. If indeed these are all just lowly bullion coins, why is the mint now producing them in such tiny quantities and for a very limited time and also placing order restrictions? This does nothing but further the hysteria and induces people to speculate and creates an instant secondary market where one should not exist. >>
Amen. The Mint is serving speculators here, not collectors. And it's self-serving, too, since the obvious intention is to increase interest in future Mint offerings. At some point, they're going to kill the goose laying the golden eggs.
If they were interested in really serving collectors, they wouldn't set such low mintage limits, or else they would limit the orders to 2 or 3 per household, not 10.
You said:
"This does not necessarily mean that the PLATS will become guaranteed WINNERS."
- I totally agree. There are No Guarantees sought by me, because there are none offered. Such is life. All I wanted from my calculation of risk/return is to be ahead on the three universal criteria or variables listed (by PCGS) for determining value of a coin. I believe in my own calculation, I am ahead of the curve.
"Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum. This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential."
-My criteria is not asking for multi-year mintage of a series, I seek the lowest US mintage in a single year for any 'target coin' offered. This is measured relative to a list of the lowest US mintage in a year for ANY coin the US Mint has made. I believe I am also ahead of the curve, untill the US Mint decides to do it again on a different coin.
Wondercoin's post seems to say that the collectors base for Plats is in the proofs. And never overlook the impact of proofs on the price of MS coins. For an example, there are Phily mint seated coins with MS pops of a dozen or two, yet they are priced as type coins because (1) there is a small collector base, and (2) anyone needing a Philly coin for a date set can buy a proof.
CG
<< <i>
<< <i>Things like the 1999 Silver Proof sets and the 1995-W Silver American Eagle Proofs are great examples of this. At the time, there wasn't a lot of talk about them as they were just the "standard mint offerings". Later on, the value of these items went up not because of speculation, but because of true demand. I say give these Pt coins a good five or six years to see if the price is from true demand, or speculative demand. >>
The 1999 silver proof sets were special offerings from the mint and nearly 1 million of them were sold. What makes them "special" is that the mint imposed order limits of 10 on the sets. Thus the big dealers could not overload their inventories and the only way to get onje is out of the strong hands of collectors and small time speculators. Same thing with the 3-coin gold sets this year. The large dealers were left out of the program and must buy them from collectors and small time speculators. The plat sets this year just flew in under the radar. Most people were tapped out by earlier purchases. They will command a strong price , probbaly sooner than you think.
Yup + there are way too many of the Philys' and those coins just don't have that ol' "W" on them.
See first post of the thread...
<< <i>Yup + there are way too many of the Philys' and those coins just don't have that ol' "W" on them >>
You seem to have missed the point. The proof Plats also are W mint coins. The total pops of the W mint Plats include both proofs and MS coins, so the higher proof mintage could hold back the value of the MS coin.
CG
<< <i>cohodk:
You said:
"This does not necessarily mean that the PLATS will become guaranteed WINNERS."
- I totally agree. There are No Guarantees sought by me, because there are none offered. Such is life. All I wanted from my calculation of risk/return is to be ahead on the three universal criteria or variables listed (by PCGS) for determining value of a coin. I believe in my own calculation, I am ahead of the curve.
"Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum. This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential."
-My criteria is not asking for multi-year mintage of a series, I seek the lowest US mintage in a single year for any 'target coin' offered. This is measured relative to a list of the lowest US mintage in a year for ANY coin the US Mint has made. I believe I am also ahead of the curve, untill the US Mint decides to do it again on a different coin. >>
My point was just to illustrate that there are coins with much lower mintages within a much larger collecting base that you may not be aware of.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What about the fact that anyone who collects MS Plats by date and mm already bought theirs direct from the Mint, leaving a high percentage of the total mintage in the hands of speculators?
Wondercoin's post seems to say that the collectors base for Plats is in the proofs. And never overlook the impact of proofs on the price of MS coins. For an example, there are Phily mint seated coins with MS pops of a dozen or two, yet they are priced as type coins because (1) there is a small collector base, and (2) anyone needing a Philly coin for a date set can buy a proof.
CG >>
The platinum coins are still pretty new. Even the oldest are only ten years old and it takes
time to make a collector base. Each year more collectors come aboard and most will want the
older issues as well.
There is attrition on these coins. They are one of the easiest way to obtain platinum so some
are used as a source for this metal.
Anyway it's sliced, multi-years in the list cut-off at 1915, so the 2006-W-Unc Plats look real good.
Perhaps we need a list of coins with lower SINGLE YEAR mintages? That would be a tough job.
1 -20 $4 Stella Coiled 1879-1880
2 -50 Hawiian Matte Proof Half 1928
3 -483 $50 Pan Pac-Round 1915
4 -645 $50 Pan Pac Oct 1915.
5 -687 $20 Matte Proof Saint 1908-1915
6 -700 $4 Stella-Flowing 1819-1880
7 -768 $10 Matte Proof Indian Gold 1908-1915
8 -1077 $5 Matte Proof Indian gold 1908-1915
9 -2058 $3 Proof Princess Gold 1859-1889
10 -2500 $100 2006 Platinum Eagle Unc- Legislative
11 -2650 $50 2006 Platinum Eagle Unc- Legislative
12 -2666 $10 Proof Liberty Gold 1859-1907
13 -2750 $25 2006 Platinum Eagle Unc- Legislative
14 -2857 $2.5 Matte Proof Indian Gold 1908-1915
15 -2938 $5 Proof Liberty Gold 1859-1907
16 -3106 $20 Proof Liberty Gold 1859-1907
17 -3700 $10 2006 Platinum Eagle Unc- Legislative
18 -4152 $2.5 Proof Liberty Gold 1859-1907
19 -5063 $50 2004 Platinum Eagle Proof-America
20 -5174 $5 1997 Jackie Robinson Unc Commem.
21 -5193 $25 2004 Platinum Eagle Proof- America
22 -5700 $50 2005 Platinum Eagle Proof-Plenty
23 -6007 $100 2004 Platinum Eagle Proof-America
24 -6400 $25 2005 Platinum Eagle Proof-Plenty
25 -6683 $10 2000 BI-Metalic Unc Gold
26 -6700 $100 2005 Platinum Eagle Proof-Plenty
27 -6749 $2.5 Pan Pac Gold 1928
28 -6761 $5 2001 Capital Visitors Center Unc Gold
29 -7044 $25 2003 Platinum Eagle Proof-Vigilance
30 -7131 $50 2003 Platinum Eagle Proof-Vigilance
31 -7161 $10 2004 Platinum Eagle Proof- America
32 -8000 $10 2005 Platinum Eagle Proof-Plenty
33 -8246 $100 2003 Platinum Eagle Proof-Vigilance
34 -8246 $50 2001 Platinum Eagle PR-SouthWest
35 -8606 $1 Proof Gold Princess 1859-1889
36 -8810 $50 2002 Platinum Eagle PR-NorthWest
37 -8839 $25 2001 Platinum Eagle PR-SouthWest
38 -8962 $100 2001 Platinum Eagle PR-SouthWest
39 -9068 $5 1996 Smithsonian Unc gold
40 -9174 $5 1996 Flag Bearer Unc gold
41 -9210 $5 1996 Cauldron Unc gold
42 -9299 $25 2002 Platinum Eagle PR-NorthWest
43 -9534 $10 2003 Platinum Eagle Proof-Vigilance
44 -9946 $100 2002 Platinum Eagle PR-NorthWest
45 -9958 Hawiian Unc Half 1928
46 -10000 $50 2006 Reverse Proof Gold Eagle
47 -10040 Proof Seated Half Dime 1860-1873
48 -11170 Proof Seated Dollar 1859-1873
49 -11404 Proof Trade Dolllar 1873-1885
50 -12193 $10 2001 Platinum Eagle PR-SouthWest