Serious comment about the future of coin collecting
markam
Posts: 12
First of all, I am not a coin collector. I do, however, believe that I have a fairly good grasp of how the world works and what is coming soon. The hobby of coin collecting is solely a function of the excess wealth created in the United States as a result of cheap energy. Cheap energy is gone, and the world as we know it will soon follow. Hobbies, such as coin collecting, restoring old cars, etc., which have been accessible to the middle class for the last 60 years, will quickly fall by the wayside. The "value" which has been placed upon exotic items will disappear. The only items which will retain value are the same ones which have done so for all of human history. This are gold, silver, land and other commodities. The value of most other items will drop to almost nothing.
I hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Please feel free to flame me. I just had to speak out.
I hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Please feel free to flame me. I just had to speak out.
0
Comments
TorinoCobra71
They would collect whether their coins are worth $100 or $100,000.
And, you are wrong on several issues. First of all, even during the great depression there was a vibrant numismatic following in the country.
I dont expect anything remotely like your prediction to come true.
By the way, since you don't collect coins, nobody cares of your opinion.
I dont frequent Stock boards dropping doomsday opinions.
You shouldn't either.
JM
And second, I want some of what your drinking!!!!!!!
Get a rope!!!!!
<< <i>First of all, what does cheap energy have to do with coin collecting???? >>
Cheap energy has created the exponential growth of the US and world economy, freed up the majority of americans from have to farm to survive and allowed the growth of leisure industries (including the hobby industry). Without cheap energy, most americans would quickly revert to subsistence lifestyle
Seriously though, buy the best of the best whenever possible in whatever you collect, and I don't think you'll ever have anything to worry about. JMHO.
Good point- people are always fascinated by money, precious metals, and art, and these all come together in coins. I suspect that coins will always have a devoted fan following....
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>its called intrinsic value...and might mess up your logic just a little >>
I said it would drop to its bullion value. It is just that you have a lot more bullion at the end if you spend the same amount buying bullion as opposed to collectables at the beginning.
<< <i>you love coins....but dont collect?.....sorry...but as far as i can tell...coin collecting has endured for thousands of years >>
I grew up digging through change to build my penny, nickel, dime and quarter collections. I just can't justify it now.
I am sure that coin collecting will endure, but the number of collectors could drop dramatically. If 90% of the collectors are trying to unload 5 years from now, what do you think will happen to prices?
Times may change and people may have to make choices, but generally it is human nature to keep one's passions alive no matter what the challenges. Coins, like real estate, are in finite supply, however the population continues to grow. The coin market may wax and wane from year to year, sometimes drasitically, but in the long view I think it is safe to assume an upward tragectory.
Lighten up buddy -
~ Artist
>>>My Collection
<< <i>
<< <i>its called intrinsic value...and might mess up your logic just a little >>
I said it would drop to its bullion value. It is just that you have a lot more bullion at the end if you spend the same amount buying bullion as opposed to collectables at the beginning.
<< <i>you love coins....but dont collect?.....sorry...but as far as i can tell...coin collecting has endured for thousands of years >>
I grew up digging through change to build my penny, nickel, dime and quarter collections. I just can't justify it now.
I am sure that coin collecting will endure, but the number of collectors could drop dramatically. If 90% of the collectors are trying to unload 5 years from now, what do you think will happen to prices? >>
I think you should buy a beautiful coin of your choosing, which I'm sure will make your
Seriously, anything's possible, but in my opinion, a hobby as vast and historical as coin collecting will always remain strong.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Someone here thinks the sky is falling ! Look out below ! >>
I've got my buckets ready to catch as many coins as possible.
<< <i>
<< <i>Someone here thinks the sky is falling ! Look out below ! >>
I've got my buckets ready to catch as many coins as possible.
Hey! You're stepping in my space with that bucket! Move over 5' to the left...that's where the commems will fall
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Those collectors have been dealing with high energy prices for years
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
"the hobby of kings" is only a couple thousand years old.
the end is certainly near. particularly because you say so
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Since it is excess wealth what will we care? It is excess and therefore all of my other bases are covered (i.e food, shelter ect).
Since you are not a coin collector I don't know if you really understand the "true collector". Even If they dropped to bullion value, being able to look at my 1901 mint set and knowing my grandfather was born while those coin were circulating has a coolness value worth well beyond bullion. There is no way coins would become worthless. People will always trade money, credits, labor, food, sex or other things of value to get what they want.
Sorry, had to feed the Trolls..
Should coins go away though, collecting might ultimately be like art collecting with the thinner and more elite and select market.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
I predict that if the price of gas goes up that SUV's and trucks will become obsolete and alternative fuel vehicles and smaller more efficient vehicles will become the norm. It is about time too, I'm tired of everyone relying on early 1900's technology and having everyong fight wars over dessert lands that no-one would even be concerned with it wasn't for the oil that lies beneath.
Running to the exits is a good idea when the theater's on fire but at the current
time there's just a little smoke in evidence. Coin collecting can survive a switch-
over to coal fired energy as well as our economy.
Here's a post from yesterday on this very subject from the open forum in response
to what should be expected as oil production declines:
<< <i>
Some of the things are very obvious. Look for currencies to decline and real assets to increase.
Land will still be based on location, location, location so areas dependent on cheap oil can decrease
substantially. People will become more fuel efficient so figure they'll move closer to work, use energy
more consciously and takes steps to accomodate higher prices. Homes will get smaller again. Cars
will get lighter. There will be more motorcycles on the road and less pleasure driving.
There will be huge increases in spending for infrastructure as power plants are built. Look for fuel
cells to become much more widely used and will replace IC engines in most cars within only ten years
after peak oil. Highly energy intensive materials will become less used. Look for steel to replace wood
in housing, especially in areas where little wood is produced. There will be more rail and less trucking
throughout transportation. This will mean short lines and intra-urban lines. Food prices will rise dram-
atically. There will be numerous advances in geothermal and digital for heating and cooling. Watch for
many man-made materials to do better as they are used in applications that were unfeasible in the past
and to replace plastics where possible.
Count on political changes as lives and circumstances change everywhere.
Don't be sure that this means recession. There's no question there is huge risk going forward for individ-
uals, companies, and regions but there will also be a lot of money being traded back and forth and in new
ways. Huge amounts of building will have to occur in order to feed the 6 billion people on the planet (or
even a large fraction of them).
Many long term trends and long held beliefs will be overturned.
Frankly it's good to finally see this issue getting smoe attention. We need a little head start on peak oil
to get prepared for it. The first sign that it's really here will be $12 gasoline with many spot shortages.
There's probably no more than seven years before we've hit it and it may well be much less. >>
<< <i>What makes you think we can't have cheap energy any more? Ever hear of ethanol? It's made out of corn. What country grows more corn than any other? Guess. >>
Good reason why I put a ton of ADM in my portfolio toward the end of last year.
The world will always have wealthy people and poor people, and some who will be somewhere in between. Wealth and poverty might be defined by different measures, but nevertheless they have always existed and will continue to exist.
You are aggregating disparate thoughts that are not necessarily correlated to one another, to come to a conclusion that is simply an opinion rather than fact -- you have an interesting opinion, what's next on the agenda for this evening?
Dude, lay off the reefer.
Actually markam has a valid opinion.... there is some credibility to the prediction.
I have to toss in another reason that may cause the prices to drop. And that is the large amount of issues that a collector can now collect... too many issues, so that more and more collectors can only collect in certain areas, and ignore others. Which will lead to less demand, and lower prices overall. Kind of like what I think helped kill off the stamp market... at one time, a complete (or nearly complete) U.S. stamp collection was a managable size. But now... with overkill on modern issues in the last quarter century, etc... a complete collection is not nearly as desirable. Way too large and bulky, etc.
I am starting to think the same thing can very well happen with coins. While I welcome the neat issues that we have been seeing, the number of issues is starting to get very large. Those collecting the modern issues are tying up their cash trying to keep up with the U.S. Mint; they may or may not have the cash to expand much into older issues or series. I actually think that is already what has happened to some extent to series like the Barbers.... we talk about what great values they are, and how tough some are to find and their relative low price for the scarcity, etc.... The fact is, there just are not the large of a collector base for the complete date/mintmark set, and thus the 'sleeper' status of some of these coins, etc. Too many other areas competing for the cash (and also, the vast majority of the collector today have not grown up with these coins, so they do not have the sentimental reason to collect the series).
JMO..... That all being said, I will collect as long as I have any resources to do so!!
>>>My Collection
Here is a deal for you. When Morgans go to bullion, I will pay you 50% over bullion for all 89cc, 93s, 93cc, that you can buy up. Heck, call me a fool, but I'll even pay you double bullion for a 95.
I got a collection of my own ......yummy chocolate filled donuts......creame filled ones even....glazed ones too.......I'm gonna make a
killing on em..........
..............
<< <i>First of all, I am not a coin collector. I do, however, believe that I have a fairly good grasp of how the world works and what is coming soon. The hobby of coin collecting is solely a function of the excess wealth created in the United States as a result of cheap energy. Cheap energy is gone, and the world as we know it will soon follow. Hobbies, such as coin collecting, restoring old cars, etc., which have been accessible to the middle class for the last 60 years, will quickly fall by the wayside. The "value" which has been placed upon exotic items will disappear. The only items which will retain value are the same ones which have done so for all of human history. This are gold, silver, land and other commodities. The value of most other items will drop to almost nothing.
I hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Please feel free to flame me. I just had to speak out. >>
There are a few flaws in your logic but as others have suggested...a provocative post nonetheless. You should go to work for the Bush Administration because there's just enough truth in your original post to make some believe its credibility. For instance, you're correct in the notion that coin collecting is "a function of excess wealth"; however, directly linking this to "cheap energy" is spurious at best. To analyze this we could look to the coin market crash in the late 1980s and the current run-up. On the surface, there was an increase in oil prices in from of the coin market crash largely due to the Iran/Iraq war. If your analysis is correct, we should have also seen the same phenomenon play out during the Gulf War in '91 but we didn't. Also, remember the collapse of the USSR and its states ('89-'91) which resulted in the flooding of the gold markets with some $25B worth of bullion....not really tied to energy costs. The take-home message I would derive from this is that the coin market itself was overheated [as it might be now] and price corrections were inevitable. This also tells me that the coin market is separate but loosely linked to bullion. I also think it would be foolish to divest myself of a choice 1909-S VDB Lincoln simply because it's not gold or silver.
In the short term, the only thing this run up in prices is going to do is turn the hobbies of coin collecting and restoring vintage automobiles into more of a "rich mans" endeavor. BTW...have you seen the prices Barret Jackson is getting for Muscle Mopars....eeegaad! Does this necessarily mean that all of us are immediately going to dump our coin collections and flood the market with coinage of all types? This presupposes several things. First of all that we're also going to loose our jobs and our current skill sets will be obsolete. It also presupposes that our other investments will be no longer available and selling a 1916-D Mercury Dime for bullion price is our last resort…sort of gives a new meaning to “…brother can you spare a dime..”. As others have already stated, such a doomsday scenario is so farfetched as to be the stuff of Hollywood.
BTW…welcome to the forums…Leo
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
<< <i>First of all, I am not a coin collector. I do, however, believe that I have a fairly good grasp of how the world works and what is coming soon. The hobby of coin collecting is solely a function of the excess wealth created in the United States as a result of cheap energy. Cheap energy is gone, and the world as we know it will soon follow. Hobbies, such as coin collecting, restoring old cars, etc., which have been accessible to the middle class for the last 60 years, will quickly fall by the wayside. The "value" which has been placed upon exotic items will disappear. The only items which will retain value are the same ones which have done so for all of human history. This are gold, silver, land and other commodities. The value of most other items will drop to almost nothing.
I hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Please feel free to flame me. I just had to speak out. >>
Sure you're not related to iwog?
while the premise outlined may seem farfetched at first i think it's important to consider that what the OP is alluding to is the fragile state of world affairs and the even more tenuous state of many nations/regions economically. it's almost like chaos isn't imminent, yet i doubt anyone would be surprised by whatever might happen somewhere; i know i won't be. each generation seems to have it's tipping point. in the late 20's-mid 30's it was the Great Depression between two World Wars, in the 60's it was the Cuban Missile Crisis and Cold War between two Regional Wars when nuclear halocaust seemed so certain, now it's Muslim Extremist Terrorists and what sometimes comes across as constant war somewhere. this current period has the added factor that those waging it are more than willing to destroy whatever they can with little regard for anything.
i liked the thread last week about what the face value of our collections was. it puts things in perspective...................
The next time you say something negative about restoring old cars......
POW!!!!!!!!
Right in the frankies!!!!!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Inflation has turned our collectibles into valuable commodities. A massive deflation could turn that around some. But even during the great depression there was demand for proof gold and 1804 dollars.
Then again proof gold didn't sell for much over face value back then....as the inflation we know today was not to take hold until the later 1960's.
roadrunner
markam is probably correct though. Just look how nobody cares anymore for things like Ancient Egypt. Why who even looks at stuff like King Tuts items? Then there are those old cars that nobody likes anymore. Does anybody remember the old days of car shows that are everywhere? Who collects old cars anyway? Then there used to be things called Museums and nobody goes there to see old stuff do they?
Yeah coin collecting will die out just like old furniture, old cars, old paintings and everything else that has vanished.
Of course markam may be correct as to the future in about 4 or 5,000 years so start liquidating now to avoid the rush.