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All coins will eventually be overgraded...it's just a matter of time.
RYK
Posts: 35,791 ✭✭✭✭✭
1. Grade inflation has been a secular trend, dating back to the 1950's (at least).
2. Using Coinguy's example (in a 100 coin lot delivered to be graded, 5 will be undergraded, 5 overgraded, 90 accurately graded), the 95 coins will keep getting submitted until they are all in the overgraded group.
3. Once a coin becomes overgraded, it (like all other coins) becomes a benchmark for future grading events. Take an MS-63/4 Saint and put it into an MS-65 holder (we have all seen them). The next coin that comes through to be graded is a real MS-65, but the grader just called the MS-63/4 an MS-65, so he has to grade this one MS-66. And so on and so on...
2. Using Coinguy's example (in a 100 coin lot delivered to be graded, 5 will be undergraded, 5 overgraded, 90 accurately graded), the 95 coins will keep getting submitted until they are all in the overgraded group.
3. Once a coin becomes overgraded, it (like all other coins) becomes a benchmark for future grading events. Take an MS-63/4 Saint and put it into an MS-65 holder (we have all seen them). The next coin that comes through to be graded is a real MS-65, but the grader just called the MS-63/4 an MS-65, so he has to grade this one MS-66. And so on and so on...
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and all the coins graded and ungraded get thrown in the hopper again at great profit to TPG.
Camelot
It isn't quite as bad as that. With most coins the incentive just isn't that strong to send it in over and over. Of course, this leaves you with the conclusion that those coins most likely to be overgraded are those where an accurate grade matters most... but still!
Anyway, michael's comment the other day struck a chord with me -- you don't buy a coin with a grade, you buy it with money. As long as you have a handle on what a given state of preservation (call it what grade you want, it doesn't matter) is worth in the marketplace, and can recognize that state of preservation when you see it, you can do OK. The TPG's still greatly reduce the amount of real dreck you have to look at when you are hunting for your coins.
a coin graded at least 1 point higher then is its due.
Camelot
Okay, I will qualify the original statement. "All expensive coins will eventually be overgraded."
It does not make me feel any better.
It depends on the series. Re high end business strike Liberty Nickels, I think the conditional rarities are leading the way.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>I believe for a 1500 dollar fee, you should be able to get
a coin graded at least 1 point higher then is its due.
I have at least 5 Morgans I'm 100% sure no one would argue are overgraded if one point higher. If anyone wants $1500-each, or $2500-each for that matter, to get them moved up at notch--I'll be glad to pay. But I refuse to submit them 10 damn times for them to get it right!!
What I was pondering yesterday while at my inlaws listening to in-law talk was- old coins, collector coins, rare coins.... are finite.. there are only so many out there. At what point have all that can be graded or whose owners want to have graded be complete. Twenty years from now will the majority of submissions be modern coins???
To me, the grading services must create atmospheres to warrant 're-submissions" ( keeping the same coins going through the turn style over and over)otherwise their revenues will fizzle out to a certain extent. Special attributions (FH, FBL,....),pedigree's, registry sets that require crossover from other TPG's, * designations, multi coin holders,....VAM attributions(how many previously graded coins will this one pull out of the wood work??). To me all of these types of services help keep the same coins coming back in the grading room.
I also think the buzz on the street about tight and loose grading and eras of strict grading in certain holders, while it may be the case or may not truly be the case, this buzz amongst the community helps keep the same coins going back into the grading room ,time after time keeping submissions up. Now if I was the owner or on the board of a Grading company I would consider this a win win situation. In the grand scheme of things I would think regrades are a very small % of overall submissions, but every bit helps.
I am guilty of it too, why just the other day I was looking for the "shot upgrade" PCGS rattlers and NGC 'fatties" in my collection, came up with about a dozen coins that I am willing to invest more money in grading fees on. These coins are already encapsulated, they are certainly high end for the grade, so why send them back through?catch another point in grade of course, increase the value of my collection.
I find it rather amusing. I am sure some people will say that in the big picture a very small percentage of coins are actually encapsulated, I am sure this is true but how many generic morgan dollars in 63/64/65 holders or just common stuff from the various series out there does the community really need floating around out there, aren't dealer cases packed enough with stuff like this, mine sure are!
I might be talking out my *!@ but what do I know.
my lunch time dribbles...
<< <i>What should be done is a return to strict grading standards, which would end the sleazy "crack-out" game. No reason to crack out if you have a 90% chance of a lower grade and virtually no chance at a higher grade. >>
I disagree. That would limit the number of coins cracked out of old holders but would do zero for new raw coins going in for the first time. In the end, it would be little better and cause massive confusion and dislocation in the market. Coins currently in holders would be avoided. New holders, especially if easy to distinguish would trade at a premium (just as very old holders tend to now).
Standards do fluctuate and have tended towards getting looser over the course of time. However, they are not all that far off. There are still plenty of old holders that have little chance at upgrade. That tells me that standards have not change as much as people complain about it. I'm sure there are many anecdotal horror stories, but in my opinion that is going to happen with the volume of coins and the dollar amounts involved no matter what system, what company, what standards are in place.
<< <i>All coins will eventually be overgraded... >>
The grading services certainly don't think so.
so why send them back through?catch another point in grade of course, increase the value of my collection.
In some ways, I don't think the grading services have to do a lot to encourage endless resubmissions........ They and the market have already created certain giant steps in grading and value (coin x is $100 in 64, but $1000 in 65) that encourage collectors and dealers to play against the house, and come away with easy money...... I think the whole game is insane, and ultimately not good for the hobby....