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Could this be the initial signs of some profit takin?
jdimmick
Posts: 9,611 ✭✭✭✭✭
In just the past few weeks, I am hearing stories of collectors deciding to sell out large parts of thier collection. In some cases these have been long term collectors that have all of a sudden decided to sell. Is this the beginning of some collectors / investors realizing that its a good time to sell, and maximize potential profits. Here are a few notes that make me wonder whats coming!!
As for my-self, I dont plan on selling anything anytime soon, other than when I upgrade a piece. I already moved out pieces that I did not want few years back. In fact, to the long term collector(not investor) such as my self, It might possibly allow some coins that have been off the market for awhile to come back available again.
anyway here a few obsv
1) Without disclosing names or type, It is my understanding that there are three major collectors here on these boards who specialize in a specific type coin that have decided to sell some core pieces out of thier collection, with some being major items!
2) Seems to be a large amount of coins being cosigned to the major auction houses in the past month or so (More than ever)
3) Several have talked about the overpriced 1909-s VDB, there are more 1909-s VDB cosigned in the upcoming Baltimore sale, than I can remember previously.
4) Locally there are two long term collectors (25 years+) who have just recently decided to sell out and take the cash and go
5) I am hearing more an more about coins that are coming up for sale that have not been available or at least have been in limited quantities until recently. More tougher to find coins are coming up for sale also, although there being snapped up as fast as they come available. (still waiting on the darn 01-s .25 though)
Just some thought to share, like to hear other opinions, disagreements, your thoughts, etc.
I personally dont care about the market, I buy coins because I like them, not for financial gain. If I were intrested purely because of monetary gain, It would probably be wise for me to sell now as well.
As for my-self, I dont plan on selling anything anytime soon, other than when I upgrade a piece. I already moved out pieces that I did not want few years back. In fact, to the long term collector(not investor) such as my self, It might possibly allow some coins that have been off the market for awhile to come back available again.
anyway here a few obsv
1) Without disclosing names or type, It is my understanding that there are three major collectors here on these boards who specialize in a specific type coin that have decided to sell some core pieces out of thier collection, with some being major items!
2) Seems to be a large amount of coins being cosigned to the major auction houses in the past month or so (More than ever)
3) Several have talked about the overpriced 1909-s VDB, there are more 1909-s VDB cosigned in the upcoming Baltimore sale, than I can remember previously.
4) Locally there are two long term collectors (25 years+) who have just recently decided to sell out and take the cash and go
5) I am hearing more an more about coins that are coming up for sale that have not been available or at least have been in limited quantities until recently. More tougher to find coins are coming up for sale also, although there being snapped up as fast as they come available. (still waiting on the darn 01-s .25 though)
Just some thought to share, like to hear other opinions, disagreements, your thoughts, etc.
I personally dont care about the market, I buy coins because I like them, not for financial gain. If I were intrested purely because of monetary gain, It would probably be wise for me to sell now as well.
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markets are a great time to sell and there are some people who'll wait years for
an opportune selling time. I know very few people who are 'cashing out" but this
could be coincidence also.
Frnak
I agree with your observations jdimmick but don't know exactly what it all means.
High prices do tend to bring out coins that have been in 'strong hands' for years. Of course, all 'hands' grow old and often decide to sell their collections as opposed to letting their families handle the transactions after their deaths and possibly lose big money doing so.
Does this represent a 'top' in the market, or the beginning of a long term run-up? As everyone is aware, many typical venues for investing money have under-performed so perhaps this has something to do with it. There's also new talk of certified rare coins going into IRA's. Whether you agree with that idea or not, it could be a market mover.
GSAGUY
P.S. Someone please tell Frank how to spell his name.
Its critical to note: we have NOT seen strong "investor speculation" yet, nor have many prices hit 1989 levels (remember when PR67 Barber 25C were $14,000.00??).
This market has longer and deeper legs than ever. The Registry concept and the internet has helped that.
I know I still have huge Want Lists of people building collections. When those lists die, or when a % do start to sell, then I'll agree there is some profit taking. Until then, I see the market as just being very strong and active (no not dealer hype).
My take on 09S VDB's-they are like High reliefs-grossly over priced, but everybody wants one-no matter what the market is, or what the price is. It doesn't surprise me a bit to hear several of them are in auction. Look at the flip side-the darn things will bring strong prices.
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
How do you know he did not spell it right (this time)
Men in Black II. We cant be sure that the real Fnak is really a dog at all.
For all we know he could be a ferret.
Camelot
I also find it funny whenever I hear a coin is in "strong hands" or in a collection locked "forever". Yeah right!
I suspect many are selling today as many have lost jobs, have too much debt and still licking stock market wounds and need to get more conservative. I know one of the sellers and he is selling to raise cash to live on, not to cash out because prices are high.
I've never heard anyone say they are buying coins because its a charity!
In the end, the best and smartest collectors usually are the ones who make the most profits. Its really funny how that works.
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
Profit taking doesn't necessarily signal a market top. When everybody decides that it is a market top and they all go to sell and there are not enough buyers -- then you have a market top. Right now it seems there are plenty of buyers for those sellers.
When people who know very little about coins start talking to me about their smart coin investments I will start to worry about a market top.
I suppose.
However, if this is the beginning of a major bull market, which i am not convinced it is, they are taking their profits at the 30 mile mark of a cross country journey.
Your observations are very insightful, thanks for your professional analysis.
Like Yogi said, the hardest thing to predict is the future.....as for me, I'm still a buyer.
A lot of ....reaching....on pricing.
What SEEMS to be some ludicrous prices on coins that are NOT rare.
Can be a danger sign when any segment has had a meteoric rise and then ....fails.
The avalanche of offerings then sends a message (which can be false) that the WHOLE market is dropping. The problem of a ...segment...collapse takes a lot of collectors who have been enjoying a "wealth effect" from what they got into "cheap" out of the game.
And the prices on keys like the 09 S VDB...(which isn't rare) have gotten a bit ahead of themselves.
The coin market is a THIN market. Know that, and you are ahead of the game. And never underestimate the power of that "wealth effect." It ain't wealth. And until you have GOT several thousand dollars for a common coin, you don't know if it is "worth" that much.
JMHO
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
<< <i>It sure LOOKS "toppy"
A lot of ....reaching....on pricing.
And the prices on keys like the 09 S VDB...(which isn't rare) have gotten a bit ahead of themselves >>
Toppy? Reaching on pricing? Ahead of themselves? HMMMMMMMM.
Toppy is when your inventory is huge and not selling, not when your inventory is 40% less than you would like it to be and you cannot keep the coins in stock.
I'll pay way over the sheets for coins I like and need, so yes, I am reaching on pricing, but even though I am, I am not buying enough coins. And, I am not just looking for crackouts. I need lots of nice looking product. Nothing special, just decent coins, and I can't get enough.
09 S VDB's overpriced? Even though they went from $2500 to $4000 in the last year, could you buy even 10 coins that you like at $4500? I can't, and I could sell them for $5000 if I could.
This market is so different from any previous "bull" market, that all the comparisons to 1979-80 and 1989-90 are ludicrous. In 1979-80, the market was dealer driven by the tremendous profits being made by buying scrap and such. Dealers didn't know what to do with all that new-found wealth, so they bought the only thing they knew - coins. When the spot metal prices cratered, the profits did also, but the over head kept marching on. So, to raise operating capital, dealers sold those coins and the rest is history. On Thursday at the Central States show in Lincoln, Nebraska, coins were still hot. On Friday they were death.
In 1989-90, the market was Wall Street driven, along with Iraj (remember him?) and the ability to leverage your coins at Safra Bank. All of a sudden a few hundred million dollars came flowing into the market, much of it controlled by people with no clue. The price spreads between grades was tremendous at the time, the grading loosened up a touch, and happy days were here again. This was the "tech bubble" of the coin market. Coins were really not going off the market because all of the coins held by these entities were also for sale. At the Atlanta show in May of 1990, coins were hot. At Long Beach a week later, they were the death.
Now we have a market where there is not a big bullion run and there are no Wall Street funds buying coins, and the spread between grades is smaller than it has ever been. Coins are hard to buy at the levels you want to pay, and easy to sell for more. All in all, it's the healthiest I have ever seen the coin market in the last 25 years. It's collector driven, whether they are buying State Quarters or Proof Gold. Will it go down? Of course, but at this point it wouldn't go down much. Coins are more widely held than ever before. There is competition for all types of coins, not just the rarest of the rare, or the finest known. The only area of the market that concerns me is in the more modern issues where there are potentially tens of thousands more coins to be graded that are sitting somewhere in rolls. For instance, the discovery and submission of the "right" roll of 1953-S halves could make those pretty common. Could the market absorb 10 65FBL's at any where near the current price? Probably, but could it absorb 100? Of course not. The probability exists that coins like these will be found and graded and therein lies my concern. This scenario would be very unlikely with any of the older series, although occasionally a roll or two of Standing Quarters or Barber coins shows up, but these are always absorbed quickly.
Anyway, to sum it up, anyone who has the "sky is falling" mentality just because coins have increased in value in the last couple of years or because a couple of collections are coming on the market is way off base. I think that we are in the beginning of a multi year "good" (not bull) market in rare coins and that prices will keep increasing to keep in tune with the demand.
Now, was that more than 2 cents worth?
Mike, I hope you are right and I am wrong. You are IN the market and I just sold out and retired.
My comment on 09svdb was not about if you can sell it or get it. It just .......seems.......to be ahead of where it belongs for rarity. I would rather go for 14-D's.
And I'm a speculator. I am still buying and not seeing much for sale at prices I want to pay either.
But, the country is aging and so are we and I am seeing a lot of what I call "dilettante dealers" (like me) who are chipping at the edges and not in the trenches.
Formerly "auction" prices are now the norm for "asking" prices. If the DD's keep up with sufficient capital, maybe we can keep the momentum.
It .....is.....a better collector market as witnessed by another post that seems to have NOTICED how many Morgan dollars are around. A good sign that "promo" coins may be out and ....rare.....in.
In any event, we will all KNOW in 5 years. heh
<< <i>numispro
Mike, I hope you are right and I am wrong. You are IN the market and I just sold out and retired.
My comment on 09svdb was not about if you can sell it or get it. It just .......seems.......to be ahead of where it belongs for rarity. I would rather go for 14-D's. >>
I'd have to agree that the 14-D, along with about 20 or 30 other dates are a better deal.
<< <i> It's collector driven, whether they are buying State Quarters or Proof Gold. Will it go down? Of course, but at this point it wouldn't go down much. Coins are more widely held than ever before. There is competition for all types of coins, not just the rarest of the rare, or the finest known. The only area of the market that concerns me is in the more modern issues where there are potentially tens of thousands more coins to be graded that are sitting somewhere in rolls. For instance, the discovery and submission of the "right" roll of 1953-S halves could make those pretty common. Could the market absorb 10 65FBL's at any where near the current price? Probably, but could it absorb 100? Of course not. The probability exists that coins like these will be found and graded and therein lies my concern. This scenario would be very unlikely with any of the older series, although occasionally a roll or two of Standing Quarters or Barber coins shows up, but these are always absorbed quickly.
>>
There are tens of thousands of more moderns to be graded. There are many hundreds of different modern coins when looked at by date/mint/type so of course there are large numbers yet to be graded. Right now the modern markets really need more supply and getting these graded will be one of the best things for it. Demand is still pretty tiny compared to the demand for many of the classics, but many of those constituting the demand are just getting started on these coins. The market needs to have material available for them to buy in order to grow. This is happening apace and coins are flying out of the services, but a lack of material could do this sector some damage.
One of the biggest dangers to the modern markets is that the flow of coins into the services will dry up when the availability of the mint and proof sets dries up. There are not large numbers of these coins raw except in the remaining supply of proof and mint sets.
Time will tell.
We shall see. I make my living off knowing when things are dear and when they are cheap. I don't earn a wage and have to make my own wage so you soon get fine tuned to these things when your living has to depend on it.
Regards ,ManxMan, Isle Of Man, A lover of coins.
Now I'm for it.
Regards , ManxMan,Tax Free Heaven.
Nice coins are bringing strong money. Perhaps what we're seeing are coins which have been in collections for a number of years or decades being sold in a relatively narrow time frame.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
It is better to dwell in the corner of the housetop, than with a brawling woman and in a wide house. - Proverbs 25:24
Bull Markets
adrian
The coins I see people cashing out of are areas where strong run ups have occured: registry buffs, SLQ's, Red Indians, $18K Washington quarters, monster colored commems and type, as well as DCAM silver and nickel type, to name but a few. I don't see people cashing out of choice or gem UNC seated dollars or superb MS Barber halves. Anything fresh that has been off the market for 5-25 years and not retreaded from dealer to dealer is garnering lots of interest. Look at the prices received for the Stack or Knoxville Type coins. In some cases these are bringing more than they would have in 1989.
roadrunner
Boy, the interest income at the bank shhhhuuuurrreee is high?!?!?!?!
And the stocks haven't come back across the plate . . . .
So where exactly are you going to put the cash? Buried in the backyard? Sounds like the beginnings of a cash/coin hoard that will be discovered 100 years from now!!!!!
Maybe I'll take a Rip Van Winkle nap and see what the coin market is in a hundred years. Be sure to e-mail me you names and addresses so I know where to start digging. . . .
If the influx of coins are sold at reduced prices, then you have a newsworthy story.