My thoughts on grading and resubmissions...

rbeaton · December 16, 2002 9:26PM

Here are my thoughts on resubmissions getting different grades. Let's suppose you have a card which should be graded an 8. Now, assume that PSA has 20 graders and they each grade the card as follows: Grader #1 - #4 give the card a 7, #5 - #17 give the card an 8, and #18 - #20 give the card a 9. This is a relatively normal distribution since grading is subjective, and I doubt you could ever find 20 different people to give a given card the same grade. If you average all 20 grades, you would get an 8 (actually 7.95 for you math majors). Now, lets assume that only 3 graders look at the card (which I really doubt happens with $5 gradings of 70's commons for example). If graders #1, #2 and #3 look at your card, then you are going to get a 7. If graders #18, #19 and #20 look at the card, then it will get a 9. If you randomly choose 3 graders, then chances are that the card will get an 8 since the majority of the graders gave the card an 8.

Now, if you hand pick out a high end 8 and resubmit. The 20 graders could give the following: #1 gives a 7 (this is the Grader of Death), #2 - #10 give it an 8, #11 - #19 give it a 9 and #20 gives it a 10 (this guy is in a really good mood today). Depending on the number of graders who actually look at the card and which graders are used, this card could get anywhere from a 7 to a 10. It also has an equal shot at getting an 8 or a 9. So, it's not really suprising to me that a card can get a different grade if resubmitted.

Robert

toppsgun · December 16, 2002 9:29PM

If your hypothetical could actually happen, we do have a problem. I would like to see the card that goes from a 7 to a 10 on the same submission. The review process alone would get somebody fired.

thegemmintman · December 16, 2002 10:52PM

<< <i>(this is the Grader of Death) >>

Why do many of my card submissions always seem to gravitate towards that fella

?

Man I hope to hell we don't ever have 7's getting 10's at a later point.

LuxuryWines · December 16, 2002 11:04PM

Robert ,

I think your thoughts have some validity... but your ranges are too high .... The difference between a 10 and a 7 are just to great for this to happen... Icould see your theory for a card grading a 7 being resubmitted being an 8 and if you have the luck of a lottery winner maybe just maybe a 9..... Jeff

rbeaton · December 16, 2002 11:07PM

Well, maybe I'm stretching the range with the 7 - 10 one, but the point is that the grades can be different. The only way my example card would get a 7 or a 10 is if only one person looked at the card. I was just looking on the PSA web site, and could not find any statements about how many graders actually look at the card. I seem to remember it used to say three. Anyone know how many graders look at a given card?

Robert

gaspipe26 · December 16, 2002 11:11PM

Robert,
The problem is there arent 20 graders. There's like 3. With 1 being the "head" grader, or in my opinion the blind grader. The problem is the consistency has fallen off since Mike Baker has left. Plain and simple. I lost money on the 13 cards I cracked out of 9's because I had to prove to myself that I wasnt wrong. I wasnt, out of 13-9's, 11 came back lower. 11 do you believe that? If it would of been 3 or 4 I would of said I was mistaken, BUT 11 !!!! I'm not nuts, neither is any of the people who take the time to search, and submit. I believe, these collectors and there opinions before the "graders", WE have the better eye than they do.

rbeaton · December 16, 2002 11:27PM

<< <i>out of 13-9's, 11 came back lower. 11 do you believe that? >>

This goes with my theory. The first time through, they were graded by the generous graders, while the second time through, they were graded by the tougher graders. Perhaps in both cases, they were only graded by 1 or 2 different people (Again, I doubt that 3 graders look at each card). And yes, I agree that this is a problem. I was just pointing out how it could happen.

As to your cards (which I believe you sent back in the holders the first time, and were told the grades were right) my thinking is that they don't want to admit the grades are wrong. When you crack them out and re-submit, then they don't know what was assigned the first time.

As the number of graders increase, the odds get better that the card gets graded accurately.

Robert

PlayBall · December 17, 2002 12:14AM

Bob,

Is there really only 3 or 4 graders? If that's the case, I see why they've backed off on-site grading at most shows. Also, how can only a few graders get so many cards graded in the turnaround times we've been seeing? I know I'm not an expert grader in any sense of the word, but even after the original weeding out process of the bad cards, it takes me forever to accurately assess even a small group of quality cards for submission. Just wondering.

Bernie

rw2win · December 17, 2002 12:31AM

<< <i>Is there really only 3 or 4 graders? If that's the case, I see why they've backed off on-site grading at most shows. Also, how can only a few graders get so many cards graded in the turnaround times we've been seeing? I know I'm not an expert grader in any sense of the word, but even after the original weeding out process of the bad cards, it takes me forever to accurately assess even a small group of quality cards for submission. Just wondering. >>

There are many of us wondering the same thing. "Doc" once said in one of his posts that each card is looked at for no more than 1 minute during the grading process. That may explain the fast turnaround times and the "different" grades by "different" graders at "different" times. I think I may crack some of my own out just to test the water.

srs1a · December 17, 2002 1:29AM

Robert,

More graders only help if they are skilled. If they are unskilled (in a particular issue, for instance), then they just increase the width of the hypothetical distribution and make the problem worse.

Scott

downgoesfrazier · December 17, 2002 1:34AM

Robert, interesting post. Do you own the Palmer 10 from '77 and if so, is it even close to legit? Remember the good 'ol days when a 10 was a card you could buy blind and get a screamer! Now it's...eeek! Nice 8, but geez! Anyway, I'm suprised they only employ 3 graders. Now their lack of consistency seems more startling. I think it actually boils down to "deal with it, or get out of graded cards"...the other companies may be more consistent but it's probably because they have little or no business. If we all switched to GAI, for example, we'd be complaining about no return calls, 3 month turn-arounds, etc. I do agree those guys can undoubtedly grade cards (probably the best), but even they would suffer inconsistencies turning cards around quickly and doing bulk, bulk, bulk. This speaks to earlier threads, but I had sworn off dslsports because their quality was a grade behind but recently made a small purchase from them of a dozen cards...OUCH! Seven were weak 8's. How do they get these grades? Go ahead and tell me they get the same treatment I get til your blue in the face, but man it sure seems they get an awful lot of unreal grades. I mean absolutely nuts. Two of these 9's actually have some layering on a corner and are out of focus. To date I have NEVER been awarded a 9 for such garbage...maybe because I wouldn't even submit it in the first place.
That's all for now...SSDD...

AlanAllen · December 17, 2002 3:37AM

3 graders? They do like 150,000 cards a month, and there are about 175 working hours in an average month. That's just over 14 cards per minute, not counting vacations or bathroom breaks or sick days or anything else. That means if there are 3 graders each card gets reviewed for less than 13 seconds. Something is wrong here.....

Joe

downgoesfrazier · December 17, 2002 3:44AM

Joe,
Thanks for the math...something sounded screwy. So what's thye magic number & does it really matter?

rbeaton · December 17, 2002 9:42AM

There seems to be some confusion. When I referred to 3 graders, I did not mean how many graders PSA employs. I was referring to how many graders look at a given card. I was under the impression that multiple graders looked at each card, and that the grade was based on input from all three. PSA must have significantly more graders than 3 considering the volume that they do.

downgoesfrazier, I do not have the 77 Palmer 10, however, I do have a very nice 9 that I am happy with.

Robert

ejguru · December 17, 2002 10:42AM

Have to chime in on weak 9's--especially the company that has been singled out. I have purchased at least 5 PSA 9 cards that I WOULDN'T SUBMIT. I realize after the 2nd purchase it is MY fault, but I keep hoping that eventually I'll get a real 9. What's worse is Bob's resubmission story or a thread a bit back when the owner showed the card and was told it was OK. Gives no incentive for me to take the overgrade out of circulation and given it's rightful 6 or 7. Very discouraging. It is definitely forcing scans of fronts and backs prior to ebay purchases. On the other hand, it does boost show purchases of graded as the cards can be examined much more closely.

JoeOrlando · December 18, 2002 3:38AM

Dear Bob,

Let me make a few things clear.

1) The graders that we have today are the same graders who have graded well over 90% of the cards in the past 4-5 years.

2) Mike Baker graded a very small percentage of cards here in the last couple of years (before he left). He became, primarily, a supervisor of the graders - more management-oriented than anything else.

3) Currently, we have over a dozen graders in-house - that's the only way we could grade 100,000 cards per month.

4) While we are susceptible to making a mistake (we are human beings here at PSA), we would not be in the position that we are in today if our consistency was an overall problem. If anyone ever has a problem with a grade, they are encouraged to contact me at ext. 170. I have always been available to collectors and dealers if a legitimate concern arises. Your business is highly valued by our staff, however, we would appreciate it if you would stick to the facts if you voice a concern on the boards. Please call me if you would like to talk.

Sincerely,

Joe Orlando
PSA President

qualitycards · December 18, 2002 3:53AM

Joe's always been a solid upfront guy, and there is no one more fit to run PSA, Thanks ...jay

srs1a · December 18, 2002 4:33AM

Using Joe O's numbers -- 12 graders, 100K cards graded per month...

boils down to 48 cards per hour per grader - or - 1.25 minutes per card -- very close to the 1 minute that was attributed to "doc"

My head hurts just thinking about it -- 48 cards every hour for 8 straight hours...ugggh!

Fabfrank · December 18, 2002 5:55AM

Upon reading this thread I became concerned that the administrators at PSA weren't listening. Glad to hear your input Joe. It shows us that PSA does listen. I think though the one question eveyone on the board would like to know is, "How many graders look at very card that goes through PSA's grading process?" If it's 3, great. 2 graders, thats fine too. 2 Graders for modern, 3 for vintage? Makes sense. But some kind of official declaration would clear the air and end all the speculation.

lapremidi · December 19, 2002 5:17AM

Try BGS instead, much more consistency. . . .

My thoughts on grading and resubmissions...

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