Vintage cards and inflation
akuracy503
Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
I've been so caught up in the precious metals buillion world as of late the subjects that are discussed in this world do not pertain to other hobbys....I suppose....
But I can't help but think about inflation matters and how they affect our hobbies, wether it be cars, alcohol or sports cards.
With inflation being a major concern in todays world curious if anyone has historical price chart comparisons to see if vintage cards increase just due to the simple matter of inflation.
Some high profile cards would be a good starting point to analyze in the past 25 years.
I'll do the numbers if I get some time.
Does anyone know if there are existing data or articles on the matter?
But I can't help but think about inflation matters and how they affect our hobbies, wether it be cars, alcohol or sports cards.
With inflation being a major concern in todays world curious if anyone has historical price chart comparisons to see if vintage cards increase just due to the simple matter of inflation.
Some high profile cards would be a good starting point to analyze in the past 25 years.
I'll do the numbers if I get some time.
Does anyone know if there are existing data or articles on the matter?
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
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Comments
<< <i>I've been so caught up in the precious metals buillion world as of late the subjects that are discussed in this world do not pertain to other hobbys....I suppose....
But I can't help but think about inflation matters and how they affect our hobbies, wether it be cars, alcohol or sports cards.
With inflation being a major concern in todays world curious if anyone has historical price chart comparisons to see if vintage cards increase just due to the simple matter of inflation.
Some high profile cards would be a good starting point to analyze in the past 25 years.
I'll do the numbers if I get some time.
Does anyone know if there are existing data or articles on the matter? >>
I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that inflation is a major concern. That said, I suppose the effect on collectibles would be like the effect on any other asset; it's nominal value would go up, but the real return (assuming it appreciates) would go down.
Also, since we've never experienced significant inflationary pressure in the past 25 years I'm not sure how an analysis that goes back to 1986 would prove to be very helpful.
<< <i>I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that inflation is a major concern >>
Really? Guy, gasoline is up almost 25% from one year ago. Oh that's right they don't include that
when they calculate the inflation rate.
On that same note. Card sales appear to still be strong on Ebay which surprises me with the economic state we are in.
Over the past 20 years this has not been the case and true inflation has been at 1% higher each year. The current head line reading is 4.5% for the CPI and 8.5% for the PPI.
One of my largest clients just told me today that his profit margins had fallen over 2% on rising costs. This is not inflation in the true sense becuase there are barely rising wages and wage pressure is generally the cause of inflation.
This is the worst kind, stagflation. Rising prices with flat to down income.
That being said I really don't think you can acurately call the effect on vintage cards. With fluctuating pop reports being a huge driver of price and auctions dominating sales I think there are many outside factors that will trump general inflation. Historically inflation has been great for real estate and it is falling, bonds do terrible and they are still performing fine, and stocks do well but with no wage growth that is questionable.
I don't think vintage cards are a pure asset class like gold or silver and therefore you have individual demand drivers for different cards and sets. With the registry driving low pop sales furthermore inflation really does not come into play.
Very high end cards will not be shunned becuase of gas prices or food prices but more the general economy. CNBC just ran a survey and if you make more then $75,000 and have more then $50,000 in the market your level of hapiness is over two times greater then one making less then $45,000. With vintage cards being both a collectible and an investment I think the broad performance of the economy is far more important then a rising CPI.
In conclusion if you have a very rare card like a Bronko Nagurski that recently sold for 350k, I think the movement into more alternative investments is a major plus for vintage and will continue to drive prices higher of select cards as people are losing some interest in paper assets.
<< <i>Inflation is running wild right now.
So is Hulkamania...
Anyone who believes that inflation is not a major concern in this era of incompetent political leaders rampantly printing money to pay for their massive government spending, is like looking up at the sky and noticing a five mile wide asteroid coming down towards earth, and not being majorly concerned because it hasn't hit yet.
As far as the inflationary effects on the value of vintage cards versus say value increases because of hobby demand, I think that would be an interesting study.
<< <i>Well, a postage stamp 25 years ago was 22 cents and now it's 44 cents, so certainly that tells ya something.
Anyone who believes that inflation is not a major concern in this era of incompetent political leaders rampantly printing money to pay for their massive government spending, is like looking up at the sky and noticing a five mile wide asteroid coming down towards earth, and not being majorly concerned because it hasn't hit yet.
As far as the inflationary effects on the value of vintage cards versus say value increases because of hobby demand, I think that would be an interesting study. >>
This is going to kill me, but I agree with SteveK.
Grading was introduced less than 20 years ago, and in the past 15 years, proliferation of graded cards has increased dramatically. In the late 90s, graded cards were new, exciting, and in some cases, commanded massive premiums. Today, not so much. Plus, as any collector will tell you, the PSA grade is not perfect, and eye-appeal variations exist within the numerical grades that can either discount the price or add a premium.
But, for a rough thumnail sketch of how things look, I grabbed an old 1989 Beckett and a 2008 SMR and did some comparasons between Beckett NM price and SMR PSA 7 price within the 1949 Bowman set. Here's what I found:
Stan Musial = $400, inflation = $692.67, SMR = $600 -- lost
Jackie Robinson = $500, inflation = $865.83, SMR = $1000 -- gained
Roy Campanella RC = $500, inflation = $865.83, SMR = $700 -- lost
Richie Ashburn RC = $400, inflation = $692.67, SMR = $715 -- gained
Satchel Paige = $1000, inflation = $1731.66, SMR = $1250 -- lost
Duke Snider RC = $850, inflation = $1471.92, SMR = $1000 -- lost
Most Mickey Mantle cards did better than inflation, btw.
This isn't perfect, as super high-end cards can't be captured here, but there just isn't any readily available data to crunch numbers like that.
Since I can't really find any decent pricing material for pre-war from over 20 years ago, I can't really comment on that. It seems, though, that the use of the Internet as a means of acquiring cards has enforced or dispelled the idea of "rarity" with individual cards.
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
I'll try to do some data crunching with old price guides to see what I come up with.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
<< <i>It would be too difficult to do any conclusive study into inflation's effects on sports cards over the past 25 years, since the hobby itself has undergone major changes in the past 25 years.
Grading was introduced less than 20 years ago, and in the past 15 years, proliferation of graded cards has increased dramatically. In the late 90s, graded cards were new, exciting, and in some cases, commanded massive premiums. Today, not so much. Plus, as any collector will tell you, the PSA grade is not perfect, and eye-appeal variations exist within the numerical grades that can either discount the price or add a premium.
But, for a rough thumnail sketch of how things look, I grabbed an old 1989 Beckett and a 2008 SMR and did some comparasons between Beckett NM price and SMR PSA 7 price within the 1949 Bowman set. Here's what I found:
Stan Musial = $400, inflation = $692.67, SMR = $600 -- lost
Jackie Robinson = $500, inflation = $865.83, SMR = $1000 -- gained
Roy Campanella RC = $500, inflation = $865.83, SMR = $700 -- lost
Richie Ashburn RC = $400, inflation = $692.67, SMR = $715 -- gained
Satchel Paige = $1000, inflation = $1731.66, SMR = $1250 -- lost
Duke Snider RC = $850, inflation = $1471.92, SMR = $1000 -- lost
Most Mickey Mantle cards did better than inflation, btw.
This isn't perfect, as super high-end cards can't be captured here, but there just isn't any readily available data to crunch numbers like that.
Since I can't really find any decent pricing material for pre-war from over 20 years ago, I can't really comment on that. It seems, though, that the use of the Internet as a means of acquiring cards has enforced or dispelled the idea of "rarity" with individual cards. >>
Yes, that is quite interesting and a bit surprising...i would have guessed cards such as this would have beat the inflation rate...and not surprising at all about the Mantle cards.
I can't believe anyone would even want him in a Phillies uniform.
Oh, did I mention the Philly Mint sux?
<< <i>Well, a postage stamp 25 years ago was 22 cents and now it's 44 cents, so certainly that tells ya something. >>
yeah it tells me the price of a stamp doubled in 25 years.
BTW, does anyone remember the WIN buttons President Ford wore. WIN meant whip inflation now. Advertisers selling them said "Get yours now, before the price goes up."
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
<< <i>I don't have the economic smarts some of you do as I've just been a construction worker since I left High School. I do have some insight on inflation though. Being on Social Security I have an idea about inflation by the amount of the COLA each year. The last two years there was no COLA so therefore there is virtually no inflation. I can't imagine anyone knows better than our governmental agencies who have the great responsibility to monitor such things.
BTW, does anyone remember the WIN buttons President Ford wore. WIN meant whip inflation now. Advertisers selling them said "Get yours now, before the price goes up." >>
The current government and their economic stooges have placed a deceptive spin on inflation. The only reason that "COLA" hasn't gone way up is because we continue to import Chinese crap and are still mired in a bad recession. If the economy was strong and unemployment was low, and if we were making products here instead of importing garbage from communist regimes, inflation would be thru the roof right now. Also not taken into account is for example food portions for many UPC code food items have usually gotten smaller, but the price stays the same or just goes up slightly...that's a form of bad inflation. I recently bought one of those chicken TV dinners, and by the amount of chicken in the tray, I thought there might be a vast shortage of chickens out there - that should also count as inflation, but of course the government does everything possible to make the inflation rate appear as low as possible...as well as the unemployment rate which most people know is considerably higher than the government reported rate.
However the basic deep rooted problem isn't the government, the problem is us...we elect these deadheads to run our government and so we get what we deserve. And we continue to buy this foreign made trash. It is hoped we begin to do what I've been doing for a long time and buy American whenever possible and I walk the walk...for example I've bought around 10 cars in my lifetime and intentionally I've never owned a foreign car, and I doubt that too many out there can say the same. Next time, buy a Ford or Chrysler, even a GM, and when out shopping for groceries, for example buy the US grown grapes and not the imported grapes...walk the walk.
<< <i>Combatting inflation is an easy fix. Just make more money. >>
That's what the Fed said.
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
<< <i>That's what the Fed said.
They've been saying it for 98 years!
<< <i>Ummm I'm thinking Ralph was being sardonic, at least I hope he was.
Hang on. I'm going to get a dictionary. I'll be back to let you know.
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
And Ralph was spot on with his COLA comment, 5 years ago I could walk into practically any grocery store and get a 12 pack of Diet Coke on sale for $2.50, now I'm lucky to see a $3.00 12 pack.
Bosox1976
<< <i>Ralph is en fuego
Now I need to go get a spanish dictionary.
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
<< <i>
<< <i>Ummm I'm thinking Ralph was being sardonic, at least I hope he was.
Hang on. I'm going to get a dictionary. I'll be back to let you know. >>
Sometimes when WinPitcher posts, a Hieroglyphics to English translation is necessary.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Ummm I'm thinking Ralph was being sardonic, at least I hope he was.
Hang on. I'm going to get a dictionary. I'll be back to let you know. >>
Sometimes when WinPitcher posts, a Hieroglyphics to English translation is necessary.
Hieroglyphics for Dummies book?
<< <i>Too big of a word for you Steve?
Now please don't try to discombobulate me.
<< <i>
<< <i>Ralph is en fuego
Now I need to go get a spanish dictionary. >>
Try la bibliotecha - they may have one you can use
Working on the following: 1970 Baseball PSA, 1970-1976 Raw, World Series Subsets PSA, 1969 Expansion Teams PSA, Fleer World Series Sets, Texas Rangers Topps Run 1972-1989
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Successful deals to date: thedudeabides,gameusedhoop,golfcollector,tigerdean,treetop,bkritz, CapeMOGuy,WeekendHacker,jeff8877,backbidder,Salinas,milbroco,bbuckner22,VitoCo1972,ddfamf,gemint,K,fatty macs,waltersobchak,dboneesq
<< <i>And while you are there look up biblioteca.
I'm functionally illiterate in two languages
Working on the following: 1970 Baseball PSA, 1970-1976 Raw, World Series Subsets PSA, 1969 Expansion Teams PSA, Fleer World Series Sets, Texas Rangers Topps Run 1972-1989
----------------------
Successful deals to date: thedudeabides,gameusedhoop,golfcollector,tigerdean,treetop,bkritz, CapeMOGuy,WeekendHacker,jeff8877,backbidder,Salinas,milbroco,bbuckner22,VitoCo1972,ddfamf,gemint,K,fatty macs,waltersobchak,dboneesq
<< <i>
<< <i>And while you are there look up biblioteca.
I'm functionally illiterate in two languages >>
You guys are dummies...I'm fluent in 5 languages...English, British, Irish, South African, and Australian...and I'm presently learning New Zealand.