Bloomberg Businessweek's Gold Prediction

RedHerring · June 2, 2010 1:08PM

From the current issue, "25%: Median forecast for gold's additional price gain this year". Quoted from the hard-copy, the e-version is linked below.

Bloomberg

gsa1fan · June 2, 2010 9:40PM

Quote from article,

"Some big-name investors agree. Paulson & Co., the hedge fund run by billionaire John Paulson, is the biggest investor in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the exchange-traded fund that owns bullion. The fund owns 31.5 million shares, or about 96 tons, a May 17 regulatory filing showed."

Is there any way to prove absolute 96 tons ownership? Does 1 share equal 1 ounce of gold?

cohodk · June 3, 2010 1:49AM

I thought the general sentiment on gold prices was not very bullish. That article sounds pretty bullish to me.

pf70collector · June 3, 2010 2:57AM

I wish I was a gold bug in 2001. I did not catch on til 2004.

BBN · June 3, 2010 3:25AM

I quit paying attention to what everyone else predicts. The people that have some substantial amount in gold say it's going up. The ones that don't get much into gold call for it going down. I'm just going to continue with my quarter ounce per month purchase.

edmundfitzgerald · June 3, 2010 3:30AM

<< <i>I quit paying attention to what everyone else predicts. The people that have some substantial amount in gold say it's going up. The ones that don't get much into gold call for it going down. I'm just going to continue with my quarter ounce per month purchase. >>

I agree. Buy a little bit when you can, and just sit and hold it.

BBN · June 3, 2010 3:32AM

Yup. used to pay attention and either bought or sold based on those comments. I ended up with none at one time because of the back and forth. Quit that behavior. Now I'm treating it as part of my retirement someday and just stacking. Never hurts to diversify where your retirement money comes from.

If the price stays reasonable my plan should be a good one. I'm almost 40. Stack a 1/4 oz a month until I'm 65. Then cash in a quarter oz a month(unless I don't need to) from then until death and pray I still have other sources of money after 90 if I make it that far.

If the price gets crazy and goes too high I'll cut it back to 1/10 oz a month. Of course plans never go as planned. Layoffs, etc happen, but hopefully I can follow it the whole way.

edmundfitzgerald · June 3, 2010 3:35AM

<< <i>Yup. used to pay attention and either bought or sold based on those comments. I ended up with none at one time because of the back and forth. Quit that behavior. Now I'm treating it as part of my retirement someday and just stacking. Never hurts to diversify where your retirement money comes from. >>

Based on a review of the weekly gold charts covering the last several years, the following pattern emerged with regards to the most recent 3 Large legs up in gold;

1. 2005 Launch. The breakout was at $450, and the old high was at $456. Gold shot through the breakout quickly and consolidated around the old high of $456 for 8 weeks, then the launch began to $730.

2. 2007 Launch. The breakout was at $680, and the old high was at $730 (per above). Gold went through the breakout, and took about 3 weeks to take out the old high. Gold then consolidated around the old high for 3 weeks, and then the launch began to $1032. Total of 6 weeks consolidation between breakout and launch.

3. 2009 Lauch. The breakout was at $990, and the old high was at $1032 (per above). Gold went through the breakout, and consolidated around this level for 4 1/2 weeks. Then gold took out the old high and so far has consolidated above the old high for just over 2 weeks. Total consolidation so far is 6 1/2 weeks.

I think we may be in for a nice ride before Christmas. Buy, Buy, Buy !!!

Bloomberg Businessweek's Gold Prediction

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