Card market these days.
akuracy503
Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
Wanted to start a thread about the card market these past couple months.
Your observations? correlation with the economy etc.
Always an interesting topic.
Your observations? correlation with the economy etc.
Always an interesting topic.
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1935 National Chicle
1961 Golden Press
1962 Bell Brand Dodgers
Top 200 cards in the hobby
Top 250 cards in the hobby
All time lakers
All time Dodgers
1957 Disney Characters
1965 Donruss Disneyland
1966 Get Smart
Brian
Overall i've seen lower prices, especially in the high dollar stuff = soft demand?
The modern stuff seems to be doing ok, people seem hungry for baseball products being this years draft crop and lack of product causing some competition for the available supply.
The vintage 50's 60's lots/sets i've seen are selling for dirt, I can't believe the going rate for some mid grade sets.
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Raw cards in EX to EXMT shape are basically weeded out by the card grading process so now they are basically a byproduct of people subbing higher grade cards. Since these are cards that the owners don't want they are willing to sell them dirt cheap as they know they will make their money on their graded inventory.
Dealers were the ones driving up prices on NM sets from the 50s and 60s as there was good value in them getting them graded.
Nobody is willing to sink alot of money into EX shape cards from most sets in the 50s and 60s as the supply far outstrips demand.
Most people want vintage sets but most people don't want OC, creased or dinged cornered sets from the 50s and 60s.
70s sets in EX shape or worse are not even worth hauling around trying to sell.
I may just throw a few BINs up and see if anyone bites.
I still occassionally look at wax prices. I'm really suprised the market has stayed so strong. 1988 fleer basktball box for $475 at the bbce. Seems like most 70's and 80's boxes have stayed solid. And some have inched up marginally, like 84/85 opc ($750). I remember when that was $600, $650. The strength of 80's hockey seems remarkable given...the decline in interest in the nhl over the last 8-10 years. I know the ratings arent anywhere close to baseball or football. And general dilution of the big 4 sports....because of UFC, X Games, golf (tiger woods, before he had problems), skateboarding, increased interest in some Olympic sports.
Plus just a dilution of eyeballs...internet, youtube, myspace, etc.
-I'm not terribly optimistic about card prices in general for the future. You've had a flat stock market for the last 10 years. A lot of potential upcoming economic problems. Home prices that could stay flat to down for some time (another 3-5 years at least?). What's the rush to buy vg+ or ex condition 50's topps cards? I'd say there would continue to be a flatting of middle grades in the middle years (late 40's to 60's).
Truely rare material can and probably will still go up.
1794 coin sale for $7.85 million
Rare cards still have a long ways to go, IMO. I wouldnt be suprised if some start setting major records, like a 65 topps psa 9 namath rookie (dead centered) for $125 k or something. Some major cards you never see anymore. And all it takes are 2 or 3 buyers with serious cash to drive them to record prices.
A Stadium Events nintendo (nes) game sold for $40 k on ebay a few months ago (sealed). A one of a kind. I dont know, maybe modern cards are getting left in the dust. I dont see a surge of interest and demand for much after 1980.
Mid tier is going to determine what the casual to serious collector is doing with their card collecting cash.
Like above post said it only takes 3 buyers with serious cash to influence the high end item, the better indicator would be the average mid tier buyer and items.
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Steve
<< <i>I think when we evaluate the vintage card market it's very important to focus on the mid tier grades, not necessarily the high end stuff.
Mid tier is going to determine what the casual to serious collector is doing with their card collecting cash.
Like above post said it only takes 3 buyers with serious cash to influence the high end item, the better indicator would be the average mid tier buyer and items. >>
I think that using mid grade cards as a standard for market evaluation is no longer adequate. 10 years ago EX-NM grade cards were the standard for pricing but now we are moving into a time where collectors are using higher standards. A NM common (PSA 7) isn't worth the grading fees until 1959 and earlier and a PSA 6 you would have to go back until 1956 (of course there are exceptions). Unfortunately in order to accurately monitor the new age card market we have to use PSA 8 for pre 1975 cards PSA 10 for post 1980 cards and PSA 9 for everything in between. Grading has destroyed the mid grade market and no one uses raw card price guides anymore.
10 years ago a collector takes a raw EX card and searches beckett for the NM price and sells it for book. Today, a collector takes the same EX card and finds the PSA 7 value and lists it at 75% of the book price and is lucky to sell. Grading introduces a new expense for a raw card buyer that was not present 10 years ago meaning that it is natural to see a dip in value. Also, with the presence of grading, raw EX cards are becoming obsolete to everyone but the raw set collector.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
I think 10 years ago would put us right before the complete Beckett crash, and revalue in their price guide. This was when you could not find a single dealer offering almost every card at 50% off.
I can never remember a time when collectors sold things for book. Back in the day, the "good" dealers would trade book. Most would only trade if in their favor percent wise. Buying is a completely differen story.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
and if your talking pretty much EBAY MARKET that is always Up and down its never the same i look it this way i never go by price gudes anymore because there out of date the minute they hit the news stand EBAY is a 24/7 up to the minute price gude/worth/value what ever you want to call it. But Factors effect the Closing prices especially auctions which i personally Think are not A GOOD INDICATOR OF what an item is worth, the only thing ending prices on auctions tell me is that is what the last person that bid on that particular item was willing to pay and as we all know there is ALWAYS someone willing to pay more. i go by more what sellers have the item at BUY IT NOW because ebay has way less registered users now then they even did a few years back (2-3 years ago they had double what they have now, yes there are sites that list the total registered users on ebay also total # of listings which were double 2 or 3 years ago as well) ebay is a slowly sinking ship and in the times were in now people dont have time for auctions to end (either working alot of hours, working 2 jobs if there lucky or not working at all (hense less bidders) they need the item/want the item now And auctions dont fullfill that need. auctions are slowly dying unless you have that Mega rare item the only way to make money on ebay is to put up at BIN and hope someone buys. Auctions=buyers/bidders decided price, while BIN=sellers decided price buyers decided if they want to buy it. I my self tend to Favor the BIN over the Auction i like to be incontrol of the pRICE Of my collectibles its just to risky to do auctions these days with hardly any action back in the good days you could throw a piece of garbage up and you could guarentte a bidding war but just like all NEW things it has grown old and run its corse because seriously if you do some searches after the items come up click on "auctions only" then click on 'Buy It now only" see the difference way more BIN's now then auctions that is why ebay has created its new tier pricing and pretty much has force people to open $50 stores if you want to list BINS at .5 each they see that is the way of the future and just so the auctions dont die they give everyone 100 free per month OOH yeah only if its .99 or less so ebay doenst help AT ALL in drivng up the price because most listings now adays close with 1 or 2 bids so if sellers are starting there listngs at .99 or less and only 1 bid.
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