Anyone an ESPN insider?

artistlost · May 18, 2010 7:04AM

I would love to read the article on the 25 top prospects currently on the front page but don't have a membership...

mathew

bhelser · May 18, 2010 7:08AM

We're about a fourth of the way through the minor league season, and a number of players from my ranking of the Top 100 prospects for 2010 have already made an impact in the big leagues this year, so it's a good time to check in with the Top 25 guys and fill the gaps with new players who have made serious leaps forward this year. I've addressed the players who have graduated from the original list -- their old rankings are next to their name -- and then go into the new rankings.

This Week In Prospects

Follow the top prospects in the major leagues with the Insider's team of experts.
Tuesday: Keith Law
• Updating the Top 25 prospects

Wednesday: Kevin Goldstein
• Org Watch: Astros, Orioles, Royals

Thursday: Jason Grey
• Minors Watch:
• Last Week: Oakland's Michael Taylor

Prospect Info
• Law's Top 100 prospects (Jan.)
• Organization Rankings
• MLB Draft Blog
Graduated to majors

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta. With the big club all season, he's 26 at-bats away from officially losing his rookie status for future seasons -- and is hitting a remarkable .276/.408/.562 as a 20-year-old in the majors.

9. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas. In the majors since April 23, but off to a slow start, although he's walking and hitting for power -- just having bad luck on balls in play. He'll come around.

11. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore. Officially lost his eligibility for the 2011 list in April. Has a 4.18 ERA (but a 3.20 FIP) pitching in the majors' toughest division.

12. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs. Hit .376/.421/.569 in Double-A, then came to the majors, where he's off to a hot start in his first nine games. I wouldn't have called him up this early, but he's so gifted a hitter he might be able to thrive, even though he still has areas for improvement.

13. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas. The Rangers' stand-in at closer when Frank Francisco is hurt or out of favor, Feliz has punched out 20 with three unintentional walks in 19 innings, and, if anything, is throwing harder than ever.

15. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay. His 3.38 ERA masks some ugly peripherals; it's hard to keep runs off the board when you walk a man every other inning, for example. His velocity is fine, but his command has been off, especially on his hard curveball. But he's doing this at the MLB level.

The new Top 25 MLB prospects

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington. Now in Triple-A, working on refining his delivery with men on Venus, or something. He's scheduled to pitch Tuesday night after the Nats gave him an extra day of rest. I can't imagine he will still be in the minors a month from now. Previous ranking: No. 2

2. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland. Hitting .322/.447/.570 in Triple-A. Lou Marson, meanwhile, has a 62 percent ground-ball rate in the majors, which is a function of his swing and thus not likely to get better any time soon. Santana, like Strasburg, should be up inside of a month. Previous ranking: No. 3

3. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco. I'd point out that he's raking (.346/.436/.549) in Triple-A, but we know pitching at that level just isn't very good. Of course, neither are lame excuses. (As well, Posey continues to cut down base-stealers at a very high rate, assuaging fears that he's a bad defensive catcher.) Previous ranking: No. 4

4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida. Has hit 15 bombs already in Double-A -- he's on pace for 60 in a full 144-game minor league season -- and he already has more than half as many walks this year as he had in 2008 or '09. He could jump directly to the big leagues, although he might see his modest contact rate drop in the short term if he does. Previous ranking: No. 5

Once considered the natural heir to Carl Crawford, Desmond Jennings might also be needed to spell the struggling B.J. Upton.

5. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay. Started the season on the shelf with a left wrist injury, but has hit .320/.414/.400 in Triple-A since returning, with eight steals in 18 games. With B.J. Upton not hitting -- and striking out like mad -- I could see Jennings having an impact in Tampa this season. Previous ranking: No. 6

6. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas. He's walking more guys than usual but has otherwise performed well for a 19-year-old pitcher in Double-A. Previous ranking: No. 7

7. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia. The Jayson Werth replacement is laying waste to Double-A, with a .337/.402/.653 line that must give the Phils' front office confidence that they can stand to lose Werth to free agency without too much of a hit to their chances of contending. Previous ranking: No. 14

8. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle. Ackley got off to an ice-cold start in the Southern League but has rallied a little of late to pull his line up to .195/.340/.297. Is the difficulty of changing positions affecting him at the plate? Was the jump to Double-A too much? I'll go with "small sample-size fluke" for now, as I'm not alone in thinking the one thing I was sure Ackley would do in pro ball was hit. Previous ranking: No. 8

9. Jesus Montero, C, NY Yankees. Off to a very slow start in Triple-A, although to be fair, he's very young for that level, at 20. He has DHd three times in the past six games after catching in all but two of his first 25 games played. Montero still projects as a DH/1B due to significant concerns about his defense. Previous ranking: No. 10

10. Aroldis Chapman, RHP, Cincinnati. Since his tremendous first outing, he's walked 20 and fanned 32 in 30.1 innings in Triple-A. He could help the big league club this year, but odds are rising that it'll be in a relief role rather than as a starter. Previous ranking: No. 16

11. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay. Just keeps rolling along, with a 2.93 ERA and a 49/9 K/BB ratio in 46 innings in Triple-A, ready to fill in the next gap in the Rays' rotation. Previous ranking: No. 17

12. Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston. Pitching well as a 20-year-old in Double-A on tight pitch limits, with just 25.2 innings thrown across seven starts. I think he could help the big club this year, but they've got him on such a low innings cap it's possible they'll have to shut him down before they can think about recalling him. Previous ranking: No. 18

13. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota. Repeating the Midwest League -- I don't know why either -- and handling himself well, with a .272/.391/.400 line buoyed by an increased walk rate. He turns 21 in October, so between his age and plate discipline, a move to high-A midyear makes sense. Previous ranking: No. 19

Mike Trout makes a big jump to be on the new list.

14. Mike Trout, OF, LA Angels. Trout turns 19 in August, but got off to a great start in the full-season Midwest League and has only been increasing his performance -- in contact rate, power, and walk rate -- as the season has worn on. Between graduations and his own enormous ceiling, he could be in the Top 10 of this list by the end of the year. Previous ranking: No. 49

15. Brett Wallace, 1B, Toronto. Another player in super-two purgatory, Wallace is hitting .310/.369/.614 in the cozy hitters' environment of Las Vegas. He's still more of a hitter for average first and for power second, but the hot start has to encourage the Jays to throw Lyle Overbay overboard sooner rather than later. Previous ranking: No. 20

16. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida. On the shelf in Triple-A since late April with a shoulder injury. Previous ranking: No. 21

17. Zack Britton, LHP, Baltimore. Throwing strikes and getting ground balls in Double-A; on track for a debut at some point in late 2011. Previous ranking: No. 25

18. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado. Pitching well for Colorado's extended-spring club in Tucson, so he'll be on a minor league roster by late June, although I wouldn't be shocked if he went to full-season Asheville. Previous ranking: No. 22

19. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland. Not hitting; the first time you could say that about Taylor since his short-season experience in 2007. Previous ranking: No. 24

20. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota. Gibson was a probable top-10 pick in last year's draft before a stress fracture in his pitching arm caused him to tumble to the Twins, who deserve credit for taking a risk that already appears to be paying off, as he's getting ground balls, missing bats and avoiding walks for the Twins' high-A affiliate. Previous ranking: No. 89

21. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis. Miller is throwing gas in low-A while keeping the walks down. The Cardinals have been restricting his work, similar to the Red Sox with Kelly, all signs of the massive shift in how teams handle teenage arms from the "Dallas Green-ing" method of the 1980s and '90s. Previous ranking: No. 38

22. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago (NL). Showing some recognition of the need to get on base this year -- with more walks in high-A than he had in more at-bats last year at that same level -- then started out 7-for-21 after a promotion to Double-A, where he's among the youngest every-day players. Previous ranking: No. 30

23. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City. Got his eyes fixed and his hand fixed and -- voila -- started hitting, with a .381/.462/.575 line so far in high-A, a level for which he too is young (20). Previous ranking: No. 34

24. Lars Anderson, 1B, Boston. A lost 2009 appears to be completely behind him, as he's back to working the count and spraying hard line drives around the field. He could help the Red Sox in the second half, but it would be hard to blame them for being cautious after what happened to him last year. Previous ranking: No. 56

25. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City. Off to an unbelievable start for Double-A Northwest Arkansas. Some of that is his home park, but he's still hitting .326/.389/.522 on the road, a line that would make him an All-Star in the majors if he could just play passable defense at third -- which remains an open question. Previous ranking: No. 69

Honorable mention

Jarred Cosart, RHP, Philadelphia. He could also qualify as the player who made the biggest jump. I may be getting slightly ahead of myself here, but Cosart showed up in spring training sitting in the mid-90s, prompting one evaluator to tell me he was "the second-best arm in the minors," after the guy at the top of the list. And so far, Cosart is lighting up the Sally League, with 33 whiffs and just only walks in 28.2 innings. Previous ranking: NR

Somewhere in between

Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NY Mets. No. 23 on the first list. There was no indication he was ready for the majors at the end of last year, but the Mets brought him north and shoehorned him into a short-relief role, where he's been a replacement-level reliever who throws fastballs about 80 percent of the time. The Mets are sending him back to the minors to work on becoming a starter again, so let's hope this two-month folly hasn't set his development back too far. Previous ranking: No. 23

Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.

Anyone an ESPN insider?

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