The economics of cards in the 70's thru the "boom"
Aric
Posts: 757 ✭✭
I have always been interested in the history of our hobby. I just finished reading The Card and am looking forward to reading Card Sharks as soon as the library get my hold in.
There is one topic I would like to discuss and get some opinions and thoughts from some of you. I've read several blurbs over the years, including in "The Card, about how once the "boom" hit cards like the Mattingly rookie were being sold for $20 in 1984 fresh out of the packs, or how both versions of the Nettles error were going for $20 in 81. The thing I can't wrap my head around is these prices exceed the amount the boxes were retailing for. For instance, in 84 packs were still under 50 cents, making an entire box available for less than $20. So how could this be? Were retail packs hard to find in 1984? Were people really getting $20 for mattingly rookies or was that the "book value", when they were really selling for less?
If you look at todays wax prices, they never ever exceed the accumulated value of what is inside. And when they get close, either the price of the boxes go up or they all get sold. Sure one box in a while may hold an awesome hit inside that will exceed the value but an overall average is much much less than the unopened wax.
I then take this idea even further back to the 70's, when even less people were in the know about the value of cards. In the mid-70's, it seems that it was well known within a small community that there was good value in old cards, the Honus Wagner and a few others were valued at over $100. Heck even in the 50's, the Wagner was valued at $25. So my concern, is why didn't these collectors from the 70's horde unopened material when it could be had for $9 a box or maybe $100 for a case from a candy vendor.
I guess what I'm getting at is I always assumed it was the mid 80's that people became privy to the value of cards and stopped throwing them away, therefore, changing their status from something that was disposable and worthless to something worth holding on to. Of course, once this happens, it vastly changes the "supply" curve.
What are the chances that there are huge supplies of this 60's-70's stuff out there hidden away in the warehouses of the Fritsch's and others who were around at a time when these things could be bought on the wholesale market for little to nothing?
There is one topic I would like to discuss and get some opinions and thoughts from some of you. I've read several blurbs over the years, including in "The Card, about how once the "boom" hit cards like the Mattingly rookie were being sold for $20 in 1984 fresh out of the packs, or how both versions of the Nettles error were going for $20 in 81. The thing I can't wrap my head around is these prices exceed the amount the boxes were retailing for. For instance, in 84 packs were still under 50 cents, making an entire box available for less than $20. So how could this be? Were retail packs hard to find in 1984? Were people really getting $20 for mattingly rookies or was that the "book value", when they were really selling for less?
If you look at todays wax prices, they never ever exceed the accumulated value of what is inside. And when they get close, either the price of the boxes go up or they all get sold. Sure one box in a while may hold an awesome hit inside that will exceed the value but an overall average is much much less than the unopened wax.
I then take this idea even further back to the 70's, when even less people were in the know about the value of cards. In the mid-70's, it seems that it was well known within a small community that there was good value in old cards, the Honus Wagner and a few others were valued at over $100. Heck even in the 50's, the Wagner was valued at $25. So my concern, is why didn't these collectors from the 70's horde unopened material when it could be had for $9 a box or maybe $100 for a case from a candy vendor.
I guess what I'm getting at is I always assumed it was the mid 80's that people became privy to the value of cards and stopped throwing them away, therefore, changing their status from something that was disposable and worthless to something worth holding on to. Of course, once this happens, it vastly changes the "supply" curve.
What are the chances that there are huge supplies of this 60's-70's stuff out there hidden away in the warehouses of the Fritsch's and others who were around at a time when these things could be bought on the wholesale market for little to nothing?
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Comments
"...What are the chances that there are huge supplies of this 60's-70's stuff out there hidden away in the warehouses of the Fritsch's and others who were around at a time when these things could be bought on the wholesale market for little to nothing? .."
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Speculating: The "chances" are VERY good.
Such supplies do not have to be "huge," for their
existence to bode ill for future prices/values.
<< <i>"...What are the chances that there are huge supplies of this 60's-70's stuff out there hidden away in the warehouses of the Fritsch's and others who were around at a time when these things could be bought on the wholesale market for little to nothing? .."
///////////////////////////////////
Speculating: The "chances" are VERY good.
Such supplies do not have to be "huge," for their
existence to bode ill for future prices/values. >>
Agreed.
I wouldn't be surprised if Fritsch had cases of late 60's and 70's boxes that he is slowly bringing to the public.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
"... Could it be like De Beers? If they released all the diamonds they have the price of diamonds would plummet...."
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"Plummet" is a VERY mild word to describe what would happen.
If it were the case that items were horded that still have never seen the light of day , I don't think it would necessarily have to be by someone we have heard of like Fritsch. From what I gather, the early collecting community included some eccentric men with lots of money and time. It just seems to me that while they may have been more interested in pre-war and tobacco cards at the time, it just would have been too easy, an almost no-brainer to stash away the current boxes/cases at less than retail. Now, it may be the case that the majority of those stashed away boxes found there way into the market as their price increased but surely there were those eccentric enough, rich enough to not even consider selling them or even remember what they have.
Can anyone else comment on specific instances in the 80's where the value of the cards exceeded the retail value of the packs? How would the market react in these instances? Would those with access to wholesale vendors buy everything up? Was this the case with 87 fleer? I was just buying my first packs in 87 and Fleer was tough to find but honestly my retail outlets were pretty limited so I don't know if this was just a local phenomenon.
Mickey71
I think we'll see a steady supply of pristine sets and unopened material surfacing for many more years. I just bought several vending quality 70's sets from an older couple in CA who are cleaning out piles of sets from their garage. A lot of their stuff is going into Memory Lane, but they said they still have piles and piles left. Lots of people like that still out there.
As to what it will do to card values, I think it depends on how slowly it's released into the market. There's no reason to believe we'll see a sudden flood of material. Even when Conlon's stockpile of 75 minis made their way onto the market last year, nothing really changed. The tough commons are still tough, PSA 10s are still rare, and star cards still sell for good money.
It has been said that if Fritsch has a case of any particular vintage item then he probably has many more such cases.
The questions I ask is where are the '71 & '72 cellos? Is Fritsch holding back for now?
And what about rack packs from that era. Did Fritsch not care for racks? Did he perhaps already bust them long ago knowing they produced the highest graded specimans or does he have a stack of '71 bb cases up in a bay?
Lots of unanswered questions but until that warehouse is completely liquidated I'd feel very uncomfortable paying big money for '68 thru '73 packs based on their current "perceived" scarcity.
If you're interested in the topic of the explosion in collectibles in the 70s-80s, you might want to check out an interview with comic book dealer Jay Maybruck. Maybruck was one of the big movers in getting comic book values up. He ended up leaving the hobby in disgrace (financial malfeasance and fraud, among other things). But his philosophy was basically correct for the time. Don't sell something for $1 if someone's willing to pay $10, and if enough people are willing to pay $10, then that becomes the market price and you should start charging $20. And, along the way, be competitive in what you're paying for your stock, raising the market on both ends. Anyway, the interview is long, about 5 hours over 4 parts, and deals with a lot of Maybruck's personal problems (which is kind of entertaining in a sick way, and apparently gratifying if you have more direct knowledge of his activities) but there is a good chunk of really interesting stuff on what it was like to be a comic dealer back in the day, finds he had, his methods for growing the hobby, etc. Even the nuts and bolts of being a dealer, writing out price tags on stickers without realizing you should buy a price gun, the logistics of comic show displays, etc. It's interesting, and tremendously nostalgic, at least for me. Check it out on comiczoneradio.com.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
Also remember there was a 84 Fleer update set that only card shops got. Finding one at market price was like going on a crusade in 84.
1984 was the year that made the speculator market take off.
The "perception" and subsequent results in value due to a "find" may be enough to have the price drop?
Some examples that I know affected values that I can think of:
1. First edition of SI - a warehouse hoard - sold by SI in the early 90s caused the value of that item to drop a bit.
2. A warehouse find of 47 Bond Bread cards - square cornered - in the late 80s in NY - drove the price of the cards down.
3. 64 Auravision records - I believe it was a warehouse find on that year which resulted in the perceived value being less.
Collecting sportscards and memorabilia can be a very fickle endeavor with respect to the ebb and flow of perceived value. Perhaps putting me right back where we always wind up - if we collect for fun - the rewards are incredible - if we look for ROI? It may just suck all the fun out of it - and make it seem like work.
<< <i>You need to read the book "Mint Condition" also. It describes the history of the hobby from the begining to today I guess (I am only up to the 80's) >>
Just bought it on Amazon. Thanks for the recommendation!!
http://www.youtube.com/user/dzolot
Thanks for watching. Hope you enjoyed!!
- I would encourage all collectors to post a video of their collection - I have found it to be a very rewarding way to share my sports cards!!
They were selling for that around 1986 and by then 1984 wax was not at 20.00.
It was more like 40.00 or 50.00 and some people simply wanted a nice example and
not possibly buy a box where none could be found.
Just ask KY.
Steve