My opinion on the current card market.
Mickey71
Posts: 4,261 ✭✭✭✭
With all the craziness on EBAY with BIN's and problems with major auction houses I've noticed a few things. The most quality examples are not hitting the market. Even ones with large populations. This tells me that there are many strong collectors waiting out the bad economy. I rarely see any 1954 or 1955 Bowman Mantle's for sale in the PSA 7 range. You also don't see very many high end Mantle's in the 1960's available. I know I'm centering on Mantles; but this is my area of most knowledge. Plus he is probably the most widely collected vintage player therefore it's a good temperature gauge for the hobby. Look at a 1960 Mantle in PSA 8. It is not rare by any stretch; yet commands a strong price just about every time it's for sale-yet you rarely see a real nice one. Collectors are holding on to the good stuff. Another example is the 1952 Topps Mantle- bad economy and the card is smoking hot. Good examples with a human price sell quickly. I could go on and on. With millions of cards there are many exceptions to what I have written; but this is what I'm observing in the hobby. Just a few other cards that collectors are holding on to; and when they sell they do well===PSA 8 1960 Aaron, PSA 8 1959 Aaron, PSA 7 + 1955 Bow Aaron, PSA 7+ 1955 BOW Mays, PSA 8 1960 Mays, PSA 8 1963 Mays, 1951 BOWMAN Mays Has anyone seen a nice 5,6, or 7 in a long while?, 1975 PSA 8 Aaron (centered).
Thank you for your time. I look forward to reading some responses.
Mickey71
Thank you for your time. I look forward to reading some responses.
Mickey71
0
Comments
"...This tells me that there are many strong collectors waiting out the bad economy...."
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I am pretty sure that is true.
Some better stuff may appear in the auction houses this year,
but nice stuff on EBAY will likely remain a little scarce.
Sellers got tired of "giving stuff away."
Before anyone goes off on this and provides an example that contradicts this opinion, keep in mind that not all cards fit these parameters. Mickey's assessment of the Mantle market is spot on. The same can be said of higher end and higher grade vintage stars such as Koufax, Clemente, Jim Brown, Aaron, Chamberlain, Unitas, etc. While Near Mint cards of most are soft, finding well centered and truly NM-MT or better cards will set you back much more than a year ago.
I think a lot of the vintage market has begun to change from buying the grade to buying the best the grade can offer. Many now perceive additional intrinsic value in nearly dead centered PSA 8's than ever before and are willing to pay substantial premiums to obtain them on the rare occasions that they become available. To this end, I see a similar propensity for maximizing value on dead centered off grade cards of the same stars. Many collectors without deep pockets are aggressively seeking well centered VG/EX to EX/MT cards that have the eye appeal of cards graded much higher. While such cards are not bargains, per se, they are considered values and with the direction that the astute collector should be taking, this will afford the best return in the long run.
<< <i>Sellers got tired of "giving stuff away." >>
I think this is exactly what has happened. The only way to avoid losing money on cards is either sell BIN or don't sell at all. I haven't seen many auctions for real nice stuff in a while which is a shame because once a large collection fetches record prices again then everyone will follow suit.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
Some buyers think SMR is the be all end all of pricing...nothing could be further from the truth. Simply put, SMR does not reflect market conditions in many cases and tends to give a false impression to a potential buyer as to what he/she should expect to pay for a given card. While I think SMR has great capacity to be an informational tool, it simply isn't updated often enough to be a viable tool when one is trying to determine pricing.
I aslo think with the advent of the half-point system into PSA, that the POP report has become infiltrated with false data...example: Owner thinks he has a card that should be a higher grade, instead of sending it in slabbed, the slab is cracked and the card submitted. Assuming the card was originally a PSA7, it now comes back in a 7.5 or even an 8 holder. What happens to the original PSA7 tag? Nothing, it still exists in the PSA POP report, now we have a ghost PSA7 for that card that has now morphed into a higher slab. Crack outs have diluted the POP report, which is generally used as a guideline to determine rarity of a card. I do love how sellers tout a half point card as 1 of 1, or 1 of 2, when in fact there are many cards graded higher of the card.
A prudent buyer IMO would not only check the POP report, but also look at the Registry to see just how tough the card he/she is looking at may be. Example: POP report says that PSA8 you're looking at has a POP of 26. Some searching of the Registry under both sets and individual player listings and perhaps others, will show say 15 examples of that card are tied up in the Registry sets...thus that POP of 26 is really a TRUE POP of 11, Registry owners aren't selling anytime soon.
I have no data to substantiate what I've written, just general observation over the years.
<< <i>I think a lot of the vintage market has begun to change from buying the grade to buying the best the grade can offer. Many now perceive additional intrinsic value in nearly dead centered PSA 8's than ever before and are willing to pay substantial premiums to obtain them on the rare occasions that they become available. To this end, I see a similar propensity for maximizing value on dead centered off grade cards of the same stars. Many collectors without deep pockets are aggressively seeking well centered VG/EX to EX/MT cards that have the eye appeal of cards graded much higher. While such cards are not bargains, per se, they are considered values and with the direction that the astute collector should be taking, this will afford the best return in the long run. >>
Couldn't agree more. I've been searching in vain for these cards, and in the rare instance that one does become available, vcp average (and quite often even vcp high) goes out the window.
Thank you
Mark
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NFL HOF RC SET
<< <i>Finally a thread worth reading
Thank you >>
Strong sales has been the trend of single key HOF cards i've tracked.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
"...it's kind of like the stock market as we have watched it take off over the last 6-8 months and you simply can't find a point of entrance due to the run because you know you are more likely than not to take a big hit as there are no fundamentals that are logical..."
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VERY true.
But, it is possible that the "fundamentals" of at least some
cards are better than those of most stocks.
The pretend "recovery" may support a spurt in some card
prices longer than it will stock prices.
Stock prices must rely on ZERO% interest rates; cards do
not have to do that.
Mickey71
<< <i>Scarce modern cards have appeared to enter the market with more regularity. The demographics of modern card collectors don't include as many individuals with expendable income I'd assume. >>
I think it isn't so much about the discretionary income of the modern collectors as much as it is the realization that the modern market is more performance driven. Accordingly, there are limits as to how long the "hot potato" can be passed along before the pyramid collapses. Thresholds are reached rather quickly and typically followed by decline. Just how many Cy Young and MVP awards can the likes of Lincecum and Pujols win? Can Jason Heyward eventually put up Pujols type numbers? Can any of these folks avoid being suggested with PED's?
There's a wider range of dynamics involved with the modern market. The most relevant factor being the higher quantity of quality material available both raw and graded. Another important contributor is a collector base with typically less patience and a smaller level of disposable income.
-The modern market seems fairly strong, given the economy. Desirable wax boxes from the 70's and 80's seem to have taken no hit, or little hit in the last 2-3 years. Like 88/89 fleer basketball, opc hockey boxes from the 80's, etc. I think that's telling, given the volatility in the stock and commodity markets.
-Wth vintage, I think the 9 market could solidify or take off in certain situations. Where you have 3-6 9's of a particular card (with no 10's). And no 10's in the forseeable future, it seems like some of the 9's would seperate.
The market by now for vintage has to hit some kind of saturation point. That it wouldn't have hit 10 years ago. There are only so many raw cards and regrades to get graded.
-Vintage football still seems cheap. Probably offers the best chance to catch up with baseball. Hockey will never do it. Basketball, there's only a few sets before 69/70. It'll never get up 1 to 1 with baseball, but it seems like there's potential to increase.
<< <i> aslo think with the advent of the half-point system into PSA, that the POP report has become infiltrated with false data...example: Owner thinks he has a card that should be a higher grade, instead of sending it in slabbed, the slab is cracked and the card submitted. Assuming the card was originally a PSA7, it now comes back in a 7.5 or even an 8 holder. What happens to the original PSA7 tag? Nothing, it still exists in the PSA POP report, now we have a ghost PSA7 for that card that has now morphed into a higher slab. Crack outs have diluted the POP report, which is generally used as a guideline to determine rarity of a card. I do love how sellers tout a half point card as 1 of 1, or 1 of 2, when in fact there are many cards graded higher of the card. >>
I agree with this, and the inaccuracy will grow unless PSA offers some sort of financial incentive for submitters to return the old cracked-out flip so it can be removed from the pop report. For example, I imagine the pop # of '71 Claude Raymond in PSA 7-7.5 is actually much lower than it shows, as the same cards are graded 7 over and over again, as submitters try for 8s, which are worth substantially more.
I think the modern market is soon to take a big hard crash. There is so much of it out there and people are realizing how easy it is to find. How many times can George Brett rookies go up for auction 200 or more at a time and continue to hold value. People are looking for deals on these cards. They only have one way to go and that is DOWN. There are tons 70s to modern out there...so much of it that still has not been graded or even made available. Guys sitting on 100+ sets that they put together with vending back in the day.
Im still not going to pay 90-100 for a psa 6 1973 Topps Schmidt. I'll get one when those are in the 50.00 - 60.00 range. As far as the real modern, there will always be the gamblers when it first comes out to drive up the price. The collectors would be smarter to be patient to buy their boxes when the prices deflate under wholesale. Probably more people who are being patient these days.
Seems to me the market bottomed out about 1.5 years ago... could be wrong.
I'm sure I'm not the only one surprised at a 1986 Donruss Barry Bonds PSA 10 hitting an all-time low of $16, or a 10-copy tranche of PSA 9 87D Maddux for $29 (gee, a HOF rookie less than $3 apiece, lol.)
Or a 1983 Donruss PSA 10 Gwynn I won for $30.
And I'm always surprised at how cheaply 1988 D Glavine, 1987 D Palmeiros, and 1988 D Roberto Alomars could be purchased for (all of them average under $1 in NrMT-MT raw... the Alomar and Glavine usually don't command $0.50.) Even 1989 UD Randy Johnson raws go for very little... (and I'm not even talking about the 1989 T Randy Johnson, or 1988 T Glavine, which go for a dime or two apiece - maybe.)
However does anyone think this smells like the old card store days to you. You know where everything was marked over book and the owner came "down" to his real price to make it seem like you got a deal?
Ebay has basically taken buying cards from auctions showing real time value to basically 80s card store pricing again.
I personally think card shows will take off again if this continues as the quality and price of vintage goes up on Ebay local and national shows were you can see the material in hand and can negotiate pricing or trade will become much more popular.
Even in this recession, some things did not come down in price. One had to be vigilant for the good deals as they moved fast.
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
From my observations on what I have been collecting.
1982 Topps
1982 has actually gone up in price. When I first decided to put this set together in 2007 I was able to buy star cards for 5-7 bucks per card. This includes Ryan, Rose, Schmidt, Henderson etc etc. I took a year break on collecting and came back to find all the star cards are now selling for over double what I was paying. With this set it seems things have doubled at least.
1984 Topps
1984 has gone down in price since 2007. I am sad because of this. I have spent ruffly $2,920.58 on the set that is only 21.09% complete with a grade of 9.83. For example the key card for this set is Don Mattingly rookie PSA 10. When I purchased mine I paid $120 for the card. Now I see they sell for ruffly $60. Pete Rose PSA 10 is another example. I was selling them for $70 now you can purchase them on feebay for $35ish. However one exception is the Tom Seaver PSA 10 card. I don't know if it is because it is low pop of 33 or because they rarely surface. A psa 10 Seaver sold recently for $153.
Derek Jeter cards
Derek Jeter cards have gone up. I started the basic and collector issues set in 2007. Everything has and continues to go up up up. Great examples are his rookie cards. 1992 Little Suns HS PSA 10 I purchased mine for $327.50 one sold a few months ago on ebay for $484. 1993 Stadium Club PSA 10 I purchased one for $100 now they sell for 250-300. 1993 SP Foil PSA 9 in 2007 was selling for $275 now they sell for 450-500. The only card I have seen go down is 1993 Upper Deck PSA 10, I purchased mine for $199 when the pop was only 34. Now since pop is over 100 they sell for around $100. So out of all the Jeter cards I have purchased the only one that I noticed go down in price is the 1993 Upper Deck Rookie.
This is just my observations on stuff I have been collecting for the past 4 years.
<< <i>Football HOFers - I follow 1933 to 1963 seem to be holding strong. Have been the under bidder on several and my bid was above the VCP average. If I had some high grade football to sell I would do it now. There are so few auction style listings for cards that a seller would draw a lot of attention and a high final bid. >>
That sounds nice, but your actually only talking about a couple of hundred cards. From my experience in any market, the earliest available high grade HOF cards always sell for more than anything else and tend to trend higher than others as they should.
Does your statement, "If I had some high grade football to sell I would do it now." mean only those cards? For instance, I have had (taking 64 Philly since it's in your sigline that you collect) some 64 Philly's on the B,S,T in PSA 8 for $7 and no one wants them, and PSA 8.5's for $13 and again no one wants them, as well as countless other examples. Do you feel I have those cards overpriced?, and if so, if someone were actually trying to make a living selling cards, and could provide you with high quality vintage PSA cards, how on earth could they ever afford to even eat given the prices that most cards are bringing now? I am thankful I do not have to do so.