The Future of Grading--beyond the 10 scale system
DeutscherGeist
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Besides cards, I also collect coins, bills, stamps.... The grading on those have many times more increments than what the major companies that grade cards assign.
When I look for graded silver certificates (which are $1 bills backed by silver, no longer made), they have a scale that goes up to 70. They have 66, 67, 68 which are all essentially mint condition. There are grades of 43, 44, 45, etc. It is very detailed. The grading fees are around $40 for each bill graded. It makes sense since a tremendous amount of time goes into this grading process.
When I look at the POP reports of the 80s and 90s stars, there are just too many PSA 9s/10s and the population is just growing. Many of those cards were printed, so many are available to grade high too.
Grading has given a tremendous boost to the hobby, since its made interstate card buying, selling and trading safe for the collector. Coupled with ebay, cards can finally be bought and sold with minimal issues since third party grading ensures the condition of the grade to a fairly good degree. Graded cards were much more valuable than raw ones. I recall about a decade ago, the 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas in raw form was selling between $50-65. The PSA 8 was $75, PSA 9 was $125 and PSA 10 was $175 (all approximate). The pop reports have caught up. Now, a PSA 9 Thomas can be had for around $15. If grading had more increments, it might shuffle around prices too.
Before I buy a PSA 8, 9, or 10, I look at the centering and print errors to make sure those are as flawless as possible too. I appreciate the grade, but I must look at scans of the card too because some PSA 9s look GEM. Just like when PSA instituted the half grades, it did affect pricing here and there. Imagine if it went with even more increments.
This is the reason I fear paying all that extra for a PSA 10. One never knows what kind of grade it might get on a more incremental scale. PSA 9s are less risky since their prices are not too much higher than PSA 8s. Chances are a mint card (grade 9) will generally command what it usually did on this current scale. A PSA 10 card will likely drop in value since more increments within a new grading system has to take hold. It may be that 68 or 69 command the prices that a GEM MINT once did.
When I look for graded silver certificates (which are $1 bills backed by silver, no longer made), they have a scale that goes up to 70. They have 66, 67, 68 which are all essentially mint condition. There are grades of 43, 44, 45, etc. It is very detailed. The grading fees are around $40 for each bill graded. It makes sense since a tremendous amount of time goes into this grading process.
When I look at the POP reports of the 80s and 90s stars, there are just too many PSA 9s/10s and the population is just growing. Many of those cards were printed, so many are available to grade high too.
Grading has given a tremendous boost to the hobby, since its made interstate card buying, selling and trading safe for the collector. Coupled with ebay, cards can finally be bought and sold with minimal issues since third party grading ensures the condition of the grade to a fairly good degree. Graded cards were much more valuable than raw ones. I recall about a decade ago, the 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas in raw form was selling between $50-65. The PSA 8 was $75, PSA 9 was $125 and PSA 10 was $175 (all approximate). The pop reports have caught up. Now, a PSA 9 Thomas can be had for around $15. If grading had more increments, it might shuffle around prices too.
Before I buy a PSA 8, 9, or 10, I look at the centering and print errors to make sure those are as flawless as possible too. I appreciate the grade, but I must look at scans of the card too because some PSA 9s look GEM. Just like when PSA instituted the half grades, it did affect pricing here and there. Imagine if it went with even more increments.
This is the reason I fear paying all that extra for a PSA 10. One never knows what kind of grade it might get on a more incremental scale. PSA 9s are less risky since their prices are not too much higher than PSA 8s. Chances are a mint card (grade 9) will generally command what it usually did on this current scale. A PSA 10 card will likely drop in value since more increments within a new grading system has to take hold. It may be that 68 or 69 command the prices that a GEM MINT once did.
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Major dealers are ignoring the 0.5 grades when buying and don't know how to price when selling.
I would also say that major collectors will get really pissy if you "devalue" their 9's or force them to regrade if you institute 0.1 grades between 9s and 10s.
Also it could make it so complicated for new collectors that they may just stick to raw cards, rather than try and figure out a 100 point grading scale.
as DG pointed out, the fascination with having a number 10 on the label is diminishing, but the appreciation for clean, presentable examples in 8, 8.5 & 9 holders should stay fairly stable.
i think further diversification of the grading scale will only confuse people and push them even closer to the original concept of collecting raw cards only, plus it would make finding nice graded cards a friggin nightmare.
Also, and perhaps even more important, there should be more detailed info on the flip...for example if there is a pinhole it should be listed on the flip, and other flaws should be listed that perhaps can't be fully noticed on an internet scan.
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
Since a grade is ONLY an opinion, I believe there should be wiggle room involved. A grade currently is actually a grade RANGE. The half-point move closed that range gap a little. Implementing an even finer grading scale would be expecting graders to be far more precise in their grading, but it wouldn't address the issues of personal grader preference and eye appeal.
The differences in opinion from grader to grader would become more pronounced, and collectors would have a whole new range of grade points to argue over. And you'd still see auctions stating, "This is a really high-end 8.4, the finest 8.4 we've ever offered". In other words, it wouldn't solve anything.
Smaller increments in the grading scale would make the new PSA 10s virtually impossible to achieve, as many of the 10s would now fall toward say, 9.4 or 9.6. So what about all the 10s out there now? Do you think the owners would willingly send their 10s back to PSA so they can be accurately downgraded?
Further, it wouldn't generate any new collecting or grading interest, because the difference in sales price between an 8.4 and an 8.8, for example, would be negligible or nonexistent.
I agree that card collectors should simply do what you and others have suggested - buy the card and not the holder. If the PSA 10 has a tilt, wait for the next one to come up for auction.
<< <i>I do not believe such a change will ever be attempted.
Since a grade is ONLY an opinion, I believe there should be wiggle room involved. A grade currently is actually a grade RANGE. The half-point move closed that range gap a little. Implementing an even finer grading scale would be expecting graders to be far more precise in their grading, but it wouldn't address the issues of personal grader preference and eye appeal.
The differences in opinion from grader to grader would become more pronounced, and collectors would have a whole new range of grade points to argue over. And you'd still see auctions stating, "This is a really high-end 8.4, the finest 8.4 we've ever offered". In other words, it wouldn't solve anything.
Smaller increments in the grading scale would make the new PSA 10s virtually impossible to achieve, as many of the 10s would now fall toward say, 9.4 or 9.6. So what about all the 10s out there now? Do you think the owners would willingly send their 10s back to PSA so they can be accurately downgraded?
Further, it wouldn't generate any new collecting or grading interest, because the difference in sales price between an 8.4 and an 8.8, for example, would be negligible or nonexistent.
I agree that card collectors should simply do what you and others have suggested - buy the card and not the holder. If the PSA 10 has a tilt, wait for the next one to come up for auction. >>
I agree with this. We had a maxim in Engineering school about the difference between precision and accuracy. Given that grading is completely subjective and a card can easily be reviewed/resubbed and get a grade 1 whole number different, adding the subgrades won't really clear anything up. Like the previous poster said - What would really be the difference between and 8.4 and 8.8?
Working on the following: 1970 Baseball PSA, 1970-1976 Raw, World Series Subsets PSA, 1969 Expansion Teams PSA, Fleer World Series Sets, Texas Rangers Topps Run 1972-1989
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there would be entire threads dedicated to arguments about .1 bumps for clarity.
They use a 100 point scale.
I don't think cards need anymore grades especially 11 grades for mint like coins use.
The .5 system is probably where it should be and is enough.
After that it is up to the prospective buyer to decide if the price matches the grade given.
Of course this is only my opinion.
Steve
"...The .5 system is probably where it should be and is enough...."
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Tho, I much prefer the system used in both currency and stamps,
the scheme used for cards is prolly about adequate.
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My main concern with card-grading is that "market grading" is likely -
in out years - to cause collectors/investors to lose MILLIONS, if they
now allow high-numbers to substitute for their OWN judgement in
issues regarding centering.
No matter how high the number, if the centering is not PERFECT, keep shopping.
I think it is a good idea, especially seeing how different some 9's and 10's look, but in order to do that kind of accuracy in grading, you would have to increase fees to a point where only the high dollar cards would be worth submitting. Maybe PSAV (PSA Vintage)???
Grading modern would be useless using that scale.
EXACTLY what I thought when I read the title of this thread!
Awesome movie!
D
<< <i>Someone may do it, but I doubt PSA would since it would undermine all the cards graded previosly >>
Haven't they all ready done this?
Each slab could have a little sub pouch off the side that bends to the back and includes the certificate. In the alternative, scans of the certificate could be posted on the PSA website. So if you approach sellers with what looks to be an authentic flip, cert and both are confirmed by PSA's website, you are in business.
PSA, if you use this idea, how about sending me a voucher for 5 free grades.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
<< <i>I do not believe such a change will ever be attempted. Since a grade is ONLY an opinion, I believe there should be wiggle room involved. A grade currently is actually a grade RANGE. The half-point move closed that range gap a little. Implementing an even finer grading scale would be expecting graders to be far more precise in their grading, but it wouldn't address the issues of personal grader preference and eye appeal. The differences in opinion from grader to grader would become more pronounced, and collectors would have a whole new range of grade points to argue over. And you'd still see auctions stating, "This is a really high-end 8.4, the finest 8.4 we've ever offered". In other words, it wouldn't solve anything. Smaller increments in the grading scale would make the new PSA 10s virtually impossible to achieve, as many of the 10s would now fall toward say, 9.4 or 9.6. So what about all the 10s out there now? Do you think the owners would willingly send their 10s back to PSA so they can be accurately downgraded? Further, it wouldn't generate any new collecting or grading interest, because the difference in sales price between an 8.4 and an 8.8, for example, would be negligible or nonexistent. I agree that card collectors should simply do what you and others have suggested - buy the card and not the holder. If the PSA 10 has a tilt, wait for the next one to come up for auction. >>
I also agree with the above opinion. SGC already implemented the 100 point scale to a certain degree. The masses preferred the 10 point grading scale. PSA adapted and went to the 1/2 point grading scale similar to BGS. I dont see this happening with sportscards as it comes down to the well known quote "buy the card, not the holder".
Look at BGS and the subgrades they offer. In the future, you can have subgrades for the front and back and add "print quality" as the 5th subgrade.
A Mint card can hypothetically get: fr centering: 9, fr surface: 8, fr edges: 10, fr corners: 9, print: 9 and then go with those categories judging the back of the card and average the final 10 subgrade numbers which would be in decimals.... That's how you would get a 9.8 or 9.9. That would make a 10.0 a lot more meaningful then. Or instead of averaging the 10 numbers, add them up for the 100 point scale. Either way, its the same concept.
We may be content with the 10 point scale because we are so use to it, but you never know what comes about in the future. People with the old PSA 10 will not submit their cards for the new scale, but the open market will not value it as much as a new PSA 10.0 once subgrades are taken into account like I proposed above.
An old PSA 10 might prove to be a waste of money in the future since it cannot really distinguish itself from a PSA 9, yet commands many times higher the premium. I will only buy PSA 10 if its not so much more and the centering is perfect. If the centering is not perfect, it may not hold to future scrutiny and the market will adjust prices.
The lesson here is to be careful with the PSA 10s.....
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<< <i>Someone above said that grades are subjective and there should be some "wiggle room". I too agree with this and I think the .5 system is detailed enough and not constrictive. I would, however, like to see some sub-grades on surface, corners, centering, etc... that gives detail as to WHY a card is an 8 vs a 9. I think that would do wonders for adding credibility to what number PSA puts on the flip. >>
I agree completely. When a card that looks good comes back a grade or even 2 lower than you projected, it sure would be nice to have a clue if you missed something. Could be a wrinkle you didn't see, but once it's slabbed how can you tell?
Working on the following: 1970 Baseball PSA, 1970-1976 Raw, World Series Subsets PSA, 1969 Expansion Teams PSA, Fleer World Series Sets, Texas Rangers Topps Run 1972-1989
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I think it's worth noting that while SGC has a "100-point" scale there are actually only 15 different grades possible. In PSA's "10-point scale" 18 different grades are possible.