I'm bored---VCP ramble

Mickey71 · September 1, 2009 4:27AM

Here's my issue with VCP. All sales are not inputted in their data. How many cards are bought and sold by dealers at trade shows? How many at VCP prices- are you kidding me. How many PSA 8 Mantle, Mays and aarons' were at the National for VCP prices. The auctions are getting hammered right now. Well set sellers/dealers are not putting cards in auctions right now they are using BIN's. Many people who are auctioning need the money now therefore are willing to put cards in straight auctions and get hammered some of the time. The data to me is very incomplete. I think VCP is a tool to use when buying and selling but not the end all. Just to add: the gentlemen who are running VCP are doing well with what they have to work with- that's alot of info to compile. I am not a member of VCP.

Mickey71

lsutigers1973 · September 1, 2009 4:31AM

I will say that I have changed my opinions of VCP in the last 2 weeks.

You have to understand that they can not possibly catch every single auction out of the millions that end every week. Obviously in person sales are impossible to track so no point in complaining about them. Until someone builds a better mousetrap, VCP is by far the best option for tracking previous sales.

RonBurgundy · September 1, 2009 4:37AM

As a seller, it sucks. As a buyer, it's golden.

CDsNuts · September 1, 2009 4:39AM

I sold a 1988 Topps Andre Dawson PSA 9 to a guy in an alley behind my restaurant last week and it hasn't showed up on VCP. What the hell?

corvette1340 · September 1, 2009 4:47AM

generally the people complaining about VCP have their prices too high. I make it a point to pay below VCP on everything I buy. If I can't find what I want below VCP or at least right at average VCP then I just don't buy it.

I realize that some cards may bring higher than average VCP and are selling through avenues other than auctions, but where is the concrete evidence supporting this? Until there is a vehicle that can track all sales, which will never happen, VCP is the best we can go by. If sellers don't want to sell for VCP then don't sell. If buyers don't want to buy above VCP then don't buy.

itzagoner · September 1, 2009 4:48AM

<< I sold a 1988 Topps Andre Dawson PSA 9 to a guy in an alley behind my restaurant last week and it hasn't showed up on VCP. What the hell? >>

he must have smoked it.

Mickey71 · September 1, 2009 4:49AM

I sold a 1988 Topps Andre Dawson PSA 9 to a guy in an alley behind my restaurant last week and it hasn't showed up on VCP. What the hell? ------They don't record transactions under a dollar.

RonBurgundy · September 1, 2009 4:49AM

Tommy Gun makes some good points, but it doesn't take into account other aspects of the market. Not just private sales, but regional factors (try buying a premium Koufax for VCP in California, for example). It's a reference tool, that's all it is, but it's not the gospel.

WinPitcher · September 1, 2009 4:52AM

It is always best to know ones market.

Steve

bighurt2000 · September 1, 2009 4:53AM

<< I sold a 1988 Topps Andre Dawson PSA 9 to a guy in an alley behind my restaurant last week and it hasn't showed up on VCP. What the hell? >>

I thought I told you to keep our deal quiet now I will have to teach you a lesson about keeping your mouth shut.
Watch your back I am going to put you a body bag.

James AKA THE BIGHURT

gemint · September 1, 2009 7:18AM

<< 

<< I sold a 1988 Topps Andre Dawson PSA 9 to a guy in an alley behind my restaurant last week and it hasn't showed up on VCP. What the hell? >>

I thought I told you to keep our deal quiet now I will have to teach you a lesson about keeping your mouth shut.
Watch your back I am going to put you a body bag.

James AKA THE BIGHURT >>

Now you're on the IRS's watch list for tax avoidance!

earlycalguy · September 1, 2009 7:19AM

the piece VCP is missing is eBay store sales. first they fought the buy it now listings and decided to track those listings. If they tracked ebay stores listings the VCP average card price goes up on everything.

without the eBay store sales the service still provides good value.

WinPitcher · September 1, 2009 7:24AM

I agree, VCP will at the least tell you what something has sold for lately and give you an average
to work with, Nothing though, beats knowing ones market. The problem is how many markets can anyone know?
Most people know a few sets (ones they actively work on or sell) VCP would come in handy if you are starting a new set
or have some cards to sell that you generally don't move.

Steve

Sportsamerica · September 1, 2009 11:35AM

I agree VCP prices are fair to understand what people are paying in auctions (including Major Auction Houses).. I believe any BIN don't show until the BIN auction ends (which can be 30 days later), I think in other threads Bobby explained why...

I think this service is the best we got right now, and are there things missing, yes.

Like mentioned before, I wish there was a way to get Ebay Store sales included, as I think it would help with the averages... Maybe Bobby can work on that... if so, I would like to see 2 prices.. 1 for auctions and 1 for BIN/Ebay Stores...

bigreddog · September 1, 2009 12:17PM

Once again They are only worth what someone is willing to give you for it.
I don't care what VCP tracks or lists. That does not gurantee any of those past prices for a card one
might be currently selling.

storm888 · September 1, 2009 12:31PM

"Now you're on the IRS's watch list for tax avoidance!"

////////

'Avoidance" is perfectly legal.

"Evasion" has bad consequences.

KbKards · September 2, 2009 3:08AM

It makes sense not to try to track private sales because the data is difficult to prove or confirm. What makes no sense is choosing to ignore the large amount of data from EBAY BIN and EBAY store sales. You can see a buyer and seller just like you do on auction listings, why not record all those sales. The complaint I recall was that it was too much work to track them all, and the prices of that type of sale were higher. Many users are buyers who'd prefer to see the prices in VCP as low as possible. Mixing regular sale prices in with blowout auction prices will only increase the prices listed in VCP. With all those extra prices to record subscriptions might have to increase, and then with the higher prices in VCP might turn off many users. There's probably an opportunity for a competing service to provide the BIN and Store data. Maybe have one for auction sales, one for fixed price sales, and then maybe a third that would just provide and average of the two.

Mickey71 · September 2, 2009 3:19AM

I've got an idea---SMR step up to the plate. never mind. I thought we were talking about advertising not pricing. My bad. But seriously, where are the .5 prices other than for the few cards Joe was talking about when the .5 started. ie. 1953, 1954, 1955 etc. I think it's possible that the .5 hasn't made that much of a difference. I know that some star cards bring strong prices but some of thge commons don't really sell for that much more.

corvette1340 · September 2, 2009 3:30AM

I agree that there should be a VCP for true auctions (only true measure of market value over a specific time frame) and BIN/Ebay store sales. BIN and Ebay store sales should NOT be included in auction VCP because it doesn't indicate the market value for a specific card. The Microsoft/Bing cashback has increased BIN significantly and it has induced sellers to price cards ridiculously high. A majority of the BIN's are used by people needing a specific card/cards right then that can't/don't want to wait on an auction.

Also, the VCP shoudn't be raised due to a few idiots that purchase for double what the card is worth like at an auction house sometimes. I liken it to wholesale data that my buyers use to buy cars at auction. The MMR tracks sales for all cars in the wholesale market. It discounts certain ones, however, that are anomolies. Ie.. If a 2007 Mercedes C230 with avg. miles around 20K is averaging $20,000 at wholesale over 100+ transactions but one in Texas went for $29,000. It doesn't include that one in the average.

There should be some way to track sales within a certain median for each card and establish trends based on more recent sales.

Edit to say that if I have a certain card for sale then by all means include all of the high priced idiot BIN's, lol.

gemint · September 2, 2009 4:01AM

<< I agree that there should be a VCP for true auctions (only true measure of market value over a specific time frame) and BIN/Ebay store sales. BIN and Ebay store sales should NOT be included in auction VCP because it doesn't indicate the market value for a specific card. The Microsoft/Bing cashback has increased BIN significantly and it has induced sellers to price cards ridiculously high. A majority of the BIN's are used by people needing a specific card/cards right then that can't/don't want to wait on an auction.

Also, the VCP shoudn't be raised due to a few idiots that purchase for double what the card is worth like at an auction house sometimes. I liken it to wholesale data that my buyers use to buy cars at auction. The MMR tracks sales for all cars in the wholesale market. It discounts certain ones, however, that are anomolies. Ie.. If a 2007 Mercedes C230 with avg. miles around 20K is averaging $20,000 at wholesale over 100+ transactions but one in Texas went for $29,000. It doesn't include that one in the average.

There should be some way to track sales within a certain median for each card and establish trends based on more recent sales.

Edit to say that if I have a certain card for sale then by all means include all of the high priced idiot BIN's, lol.

>>

I disagree. If a card "sells" for well over market price (as is often the case with the auction houses), then it should be included in the VCP pricing. We have to assume the sale was real and the transaction was completed. We have the option of looking at all sales for a particular card in a particular grade to look for anamolies. I think relying solely on the average VCP value is risky. You really need to view the trend and look at the high and low prices. Maybe the lowest price realized was on a card that was misgraded, e.g., an 8 that is way off center or has a stain on it. On the flip side, maybe the strongest price realized was on a card in a pre-half grade holder that looks very strong for the grade.

larryallen73 · September 2, 2009 4:08AM

I was a member of a VCP for a while and I really enjoyed it. I don't follow card values very closely but wanted to buy some vintage stuff last year. Ebay closing sales provids sufficient info for some cards but not all. VCP is an incredible tool to give you a person a rough idea what a card should sell for. No it's not foolproof... but it does give a pretty darn good estimate. I think it's a great service! I only cancelled it because I stopped buying cards as I decided to spend my money on something other than cards.

gemint · September 2, 2009 4:10AM

Does anyone know why they only capture sales from late 2006 onward? I thought VCP has been around longer than that.

MBMiller25 · September 2, 2009 4:12AM

VCP currently takes the high sell price of each card via auction and the low sell price of each card via auction and drops those auctions when configuring an average. Its their way of trying to capture any anomolies in the market.

clydecoolidge · September 2, 2009 4:12AM

VCP is a good tool, but only one of many. For one thing, the averages can be horribly deceiving if a couple cards (out of say 20 sold), sold for an extreme amount of money for whatever reason. Another thing you need to look at with VCP is how recent the sales were. I've seen cards that haven't sold for a year or more, and depending on the issue, could be worth much more at this point, especially taking into consideration the pop reports and set registry chasers. Then of course eye appeal for the grade should be considered, especially for an issue like 57T baseball or similar tougher issues. All in all I think it's a great tool for the money, but certainly not the "gospel" of card pricing.

I use VCP for some reference points, but ultimately I'm the one who determines what I list/offer a card for, and the buyer (if there is one) determines the sell price.

edited to add: I've seen PSA 6's sell for more than 7's in VCP, so that outta tell ya it's not always accurate at face value.

gemint · September 2, 2009 4:15AM

<< VCP is a good tool, but only one of many. For one thing, the averages can be horribly deceiving if a couple cards (out of say 20 sold), sold for an extreme amount of money for whatever reason. Another thing you need to look at with VCP is how recent the sales were. I've seen cards that haven't sold for a year or more, and depending on the issue, could be worth much more at this point, especially taking into consideration the pop reports and set registry chasers. Then of course eye appeal for the grade should be considered, especially for an issue like 57T baseball or similar tougher issues. All in all I think it's a great tool for the money, but certainly not the "gospel" of card pricing.

I use VCP for some reference points, but ultimately I'm the one who determines what I list/offer a card for, and the buyer (if there is one) determines the sell price. >>

Hey Dude, you can click on the price grid for a particular grade and see all the sales for that card over the period VCP tracks. It shows the date, amount and, in most cases, an image and auction link for the card.

clydecoolidge · September 2, 2009 7:37AM

<< 

<< VCP is a good tool, but only one of many. For one thing, the averages can be horribly deceiving if a couple cards (out of say 20 sold), sold for an extreme amount of money for whatever reason. Another thing you need to look at with VCP is how recent the sales were. I've seen cards that haven't sold for a year or more, and depending on the issue, could be worth much more at this point, especially taking into consideration the pop reports and set registry chasers. Then of course eye appeal for the grade should be considered, especially for an issue like 57T baseball or similar tougher issues. All in all I think it's a great tool for the money, but certainly not the "gospel" of card pricing.

I use VCP for some reference points, but ultimately I'm the one who determines what I list/offer a card for, and the buyer (if there is one) determines the sell price. >>

Hey Dude, you can click on the price grid for a particular grade and see all the sales for that card over the period VCP tracks. It shows the date, amount and, in most cases, an image and auction link for the card. >>

Did I say something that made it seem like I didn't know that?

eagles33 · September 2, 2009 9:27AM

i think that pice guides are a complete waste of time now adays. a card is only worth what someone is willing to pay.. so if i want to see how much something is worth.. i just check ebay.. the mkt determines the price. not some guide. since the popularity of the internet.. i don't think there is any purpose for a price guide. If some guide says a card is worth 350 bucks.. but it sells at auction fro 200.. then its only worth 200 bucks.. thats fair value of the card.. sure the price can move up or down.. but at the time of purchase it sold at fair market value. This all assuming that noone is bidding up items to inflate the price.

Griffins · September 2, 2009 11:50AM

I don't look at vcp as a price guide, but rather of a record of realized sales.
You still have to look at that data and work thru it a bit to get something accurate, based on your experience. It's not absolute, nor should any data automatically give you a solid conclusion without some personal experience to add to it.

VCP started about '06, so that is why it doesn't go back further. IIRC vcp and cp started about the same time that spring.

For a lot of issues a particular card may have had a recorded public sale only a few times in the last few years. If all the sales were a few years old that should indicate that the next one will go for higher money, as there are people waiting for it.
And the opposite is true, if a flurry of sales are all recent it's likely the next sale won't be as high.

I also don't take into account the realized "sales" from a few auction houses.

I"m glad they don't track private sales- the info isn't reliable. I've heard of sales being reported as one lofty figure only to find out that the buyer only got it for less, but the dealer wanted the publicity and set the bar for the next sale.

I'm bored---VCP ramble

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