How long before the 19,000 PSA 9-75 topps minis hit the market?

TypeSetter · June 21, 2009 3:06PM

Are we there yet? it's been just about long enough for the 97,000 packs recently sold to be sorted through and or ....
right?

1960toppsguy · June 21, 2009 11:06PM

I'm just glad that I don't have that set in my registry. It's about to tank faster than the stock market in November 2008! Boo . . .

lsutigers1973 · June 22, 2009 12:08AM

<< Type coins please! >>

Ok then I will. C-O-I-N-S

Indy78 · June 22, 2009 12:30AM

Whether it tanks or not, I have no idea. But, I've been winning PSA 8 75 mini commons and semi-star type cards for anywhere between 3 and 5 bucks apiece with little or no competition. and I'm loving every minute of it. I've built a very nice combo raw and graded set that I hope I never have to sell. The PSA 7 and 8 mini's that have been graded under stringent standards in the last 6 mos to a year are absolutely beautiful, and a great bargain in my opinion.

jackstraw · June 22, 2009 6:55AM

<< 

<< Type coins please! >>

Ok then I will. C-O-I-N-S >>

COINS PLEASE

Tabe · June 22, 2009 8:22AM

Obviously I missed something along the way - was there a huge dump of legit packs recently or something?

Tabe

MiniDuff · June 22, 2009 9:27AM

Bit of a overstatement. 26 cases hit the market, 1/4 or so of which have been or will be ripped. Ive already passed the best cards of 4 boxes for about 150 9s, or 37 per box.. there will certainly be minis available that havent before, but psa is grading them very, very strictly. I say this from the experience of someone who has graded well over 3,000 minis and own multiple cases.

KalineFan · June 22, 2009 9:34AM

Yea, type coins are doing well also....heh

julen23 · June 22, 2009 10:30AM

i sent 110+ cards to psa that were from 3 boxes: 2 REA & 1 unknown case box last week.

i will prolly flood market w/ psa 6 cards, but really really nice.

j

TypeSetter · June 22, 2009 11:10AM

<< Yea, type coins are doing well also....heh >>

yes! and always in demand!

I want some certed ones?

Bosox1976 · June 22, 2009 11:54AM

<< i will prolly flood market w/ psa 6 cards, but really really nice. >>

Heh.

MattyC · June 22, 2009 1:19PM

Anyone who thinks the 1975 Topps Mini set will tank, just sell me your 9s and 10s. I'll pay top dollar. Get to know the nuances of this set first-- or better yet, don't. Just sell me your 9s and 10s, esp stars.

packCollector · June 22, 2009 1:22PM

you're just a little off in the numbers (16*36*26=14,976 packs) , I would not expect much more than what you have seen so far. most of the cases are in private hands and were not purchased with the intention of them being opened.

mike92694 · June 22, 2009 2:47PM

<< you're just a little off in the numbers (16*36*26=14,976 packs) , I would not expect much more than what you have seen so far. most of the cases are in private hands and were not purchased with the intention of them being opened. >>

Let's take the 14,976 packs. Multiply by 10 to get 149,760 cards. There are 660 cards in the set, and the "most valuable" are the Yount, Brett, and Ryan (#500). So, one can expect to have 680 or so of these cards all together based on statistics. According to the PSA Pop report, if my math is correct, only about 6% all together grade either 9 or 10. So if we continue the trend, that's about 41 additional cards in 9 or 10 for these star players. Not much of a difference.

My opinion is that the increase of 1975 Mini cards in the market will demonstrate the difficulty of getting excellent quality (9 and 10's) cards.

julen23 · June 22, 2009 3:02PM

i pulled a nolan ryans in back to back packs, both being graded too,

so much for statistical probabilities

j

grote15 · June 22, 2009 4:03PM

As Dunacn said, most of these cases will never see the light of day anyway, so if you think there's going to be anywhere near 19,000 PSA 9s hitting the market you are in for a rude surprise. The buzz generated by the last of these sealed cases may actually increase demand and value for the highest graded and toughest cards, as more and more collectors are drawn to this already very popular set.

julen23 · June 22, 2009 4:30PM

60stoppsveteran, is your icon from a jj cale album, 1 of my favorites too.

jj cale put out his 1st album in '58 or '59-ish, talk about longevity!

j

theczar · June 23, 2009 1:52AM

yeah but don't forget gary's high grade 1975 mini material. when that stuff hits psa it will play a major factor in the market.

initialD · June 23, 2009 2:38AM

Price was good enough for me to even buy a box from Steve

Doesn't bother me that the Motherload hit the streets, hell

I'll probably start a Mini Set when I ever find time to crack this beauty

julen23 · June 23, 2009 2:53AM

good luck.

hope collateral damage on stained & warped cards is minimal

j

initialD · June 23, 2009 4:59AM

Thanks!

I knew buying it was a TOTAL crap shoot!!

And that may just be a literal turnout

I've only opened a Mini cello before and got doubles in the same pack,

so the collation in the wax will be interesting to see

Great job on your pulls J, can't wait to see the grading results as those were sharp

mike92694 · June 23, 2009 6:06AM

<< i pulled a nolan ryans in back to back packs, both being graded too,

so much for statistical probabilities

j >>

that just means fewer nolan ryan's for other people.

KbKards · June 24, 2009 2:41AM

"Let's take the 14,976 packs. Multiply by 10 to get 149,760 cards. There are 660 cards in the set, and the "most valuable" are the Yount, Brett, and Ryan (#500). So, one can expect to have 680 or so of these cards all together based on statistics. According to the PSA Pop report, if my math is correct, only about 6% all together grade either 9 or 10. So if we continue the trend, that's about 41 additional cards in 9 or 10 for these star players. Not much of a difference."

Your calculation is way off. The 6% that have been graded 9 or 10 have come from the millions of cards that were already out in the market place, a large percentage of which survived in "original" condition because since the day they came out it's been an issue highly sought after by serious collectors who put them away. Original doesn't mean mint, it means lots of pack fresh cards with lots of different defects which will make grading difficult. From the pool of millions of available cards, 52,000 were hand selected and sent in for grading. Your 6% comes from 52,000 selected from the millions of cards out there. Now you only have a pool of 149,760 possible cards to choose from. Deduct hopefully only 2 cards per pack for wax and gum issues. Deduct 10's of 1000's of cards with poor centering, cutting, handling, and print issues. What you'll have left is a very small percentage of cards that will grade high. The final number of new cards to hit the market will be much lower than you might think. Cards that were more difficult before the new break will continue to stay more difficult. If you ever opened a few packs of 75 Mini's for grading you'll usually wish you had left them sealed. With 14,976 to open you'll hit some winners.

TypeSetter · June 24, 2009 8:22AM

Assume the obvious! My 19,000 number was figurative. Simply put,there will be plenty of new 9's coming up the pipe. yes we all know how tough centered cards are from this set but still 150,000 new cards! there will be a pop expansion of 9's regardless...........

TheVon · June 24, 2009 9:59AM

<< Anyone who thinks the 1975 Topps Mini set will tank, just sell me your 9s and 10s. I'll pay top dollar. Get to know the nuances of this set first-- or better yet, don't. Just sell me your 9s and 10s, esp stars. >>

And then please sell me whatever you have left.

packCollector · June 24, 2009 11:36AM

<< Assume the obvious! My 19,000 number was figurative. Simply put,there will be plenty of new 9's coming up the pipe. yes we all know how tough centered cards are from this set but still 150,000 new cards! there will be a pop expansion of 9's regardless........... >>

you assume that all of these packs will be opened and the cards will hit the market. I bought 10 of the cases. I had 1 private collector take almost 5 cases that won't be opened. The other 7 case lot went to a private collector who has never sold anything. right there goes 1/2 your potential supply that will not be hitting the market.

will there be more 9's, yes , will there be an explosion. probably not.

julen23 · June 24, 2009 12:02PM

10 cases of acapulco gold.....

the street value of that stuff i tell you!!!

if you need to sell anymore boxes from auction, please LMK, for real.

J

MiniDuff · June 24, 2009 12:23PM

J cravin the crack again...

I have 3 of the sealed cases as well and no intention of cracking them, tho I may sell one intact.

Speaking of cardboard crack... i wouldnt mind cracking a box or two again myself :-P

grote15 · June 24, 2009 1:49PM

Ditto for another box of 75 minis....

MiniMaster · June 24, 2009 2:13PM

It's not much of a surprise that the cases sold at the REA auction are not being cracked. There really isn't much of a market for the cards right now. Not many dealers are interested in selling 9's for $8-$15 each? It's better to wait it out until there is a bigger demand for the cards. When more collectors are battling it out for most 9's, this is when you'll see more high grade mini's show up. When the cards are selling for so little, there is little incentive to sell them or crack boxes and submit them for grading. Another factor, it appears grading has gotten tighter. Yet another reason there are fewer large submissions of these cards. Until some of these factors start to change, I don't see the availability of high grade mini's increasing in great numbers anytime soon.

smtjoy · June 25, 2009 2:26AM

I think its going to have a big downward effect on the graded card prices of 9-10's but thats just my view. In any case a great time to be putting the set together but a bad time if you are planning to sell any.

theskypilot · June 26, 2009 2:05AM

buy when there is a flood, sell when there is a drought!!!!!!!!!!!!

IMO a lot of these will sit un-opened for years.

the ones sent in with PSA's quick turn around times

the graded ones may not show up for 6 months to a year.

SKY

1960toppsguy · June 26, 2009 8:00AM

Dump while you can

TheTalkingWalnut · June 27, 2009 3:02PM

Good advice, toppsguy.

Oh, wait, were you talking about baseball cards???

fandango · June 27, 2009 11:27PM

people wont opne the BOxes because they know they are more valuable unopned......

those cards will probably be tilted and in poor shape, once opened, the value drops bigtime.....

why they sold ALL those cases is strange..the auction house could have sat on them for a year (unless they thought the value would tank in a year)

julen23 · June 27, 2009 11:32PM

dynamical prognostication there

Cincykid8123 · June 28, 2009 1:04AM

WOW! That's a killer to the market value of the '75 minis! Glad I never got started on that set.

grote15 · June 28, 2009 7:02AM

people wont opne the BOxes because they know they are more valuable unopned......

those cards will probably be tilted and in poor shape, once opened, the value drops bigtime.....

On the contrary, the quality of the cards that have been pulled so far is much better than average, and I can't think of any issue from the 1970s that provides a greater upside to open than the 1975 set. Fact of the matter is that there will be some increase in the number of PSA 9 and PSA 10 graded cards, but the number of those cards will be much smaller than what is being projected by those who are not knowledgeable about this set in the first place, and the popularity of this set will only rise as more and more collectors are drawn to it. It's rather amusing to read some of the comments made here by people who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about when it comes to the facts about 1975 minis. But to each his own...

Also, the clarify another inaccurate statemrnt made above, the "auction house" in this case REA did not own these cases or have the option of sitting on these cases...Charlie Conlon's estate decided to list these cases all at once as the family had no interest in "holding on" to these boxes..

hammered · June 28, 2009 2:32PM

I agree.
But we have witnessed a dramatic rise in # of 9's on ebay (I counted over 100 a couple days ago).
Some of the 9's Jim listed for w/ BIN of $60 or thereabouts would have sold for $200+ over a year ago (ie Campy, Frisella).
Frisella's a good example. For years it was a pop 4 or 5. Now it's a pop. 10. Big diff in price there.
You have to believe that this set will turn around. Case in point, I have recently sold a couple '76T cards w/ pops of around 15 for $150+.
But there happen to be collectors of that set that need these cards. A pop. 15 mini goes for about 10 bucks, even though there is a lower % of 9's to total submitted than for 76.
What the mini needs is new blood - new collectors for whom those pop 10s and 15s are needed for their sets, to compete with each other.

MiniDuff · June 29, 2009 3:46AM

Right on Matt. I actually hit 4 frisella 9s, equal to what was the prior pop.

In the last three months, I have sold graded minis to over 40 different ebay user ids. Some are one off team or star collectors for sure, but others have come back more than once as they work their set.

The test for this set will be whether the price of a graded common 8 can hold around the price of a bulk submission. Since 60-80% of all solid lots will come back an 8, if the majority of those are money losers, the incentive to grade will go away until supply recedes.
The premium for semi rare 9s is down, and 10s are still hard as hell to grade, so short of the 40 or so true bears in 9, there isnt a lot of money in the set as a grader right now. That fact alone will hold suply down for the near future. Free markets are a wonderful thing.

At the same time, the cheaper access to 8s and common 9s makes the set far more attractive to people who previously could only watch as MM, Matt, Henry and Eric bid cards out of their reasonable price range. People who bought 7s and 8s are now buying 9s as well.

Interesting times for minis to be sure.

I will close on this...

If you dont understand what I am about to say, your opinion is anything but informed:

If the events of last summer into fall did not destroy the mini set, Charlies death and subsequent release of his horde will do nothing but raise the awareness and interest of the set long term.

Stingray · June 29, 2009 3:59AM

Was Charlie on here with the avatar with the drinking smiley??

MiniMaster · June 29, 2009 11:19AM

Well stated Jim

I also agree with Grote.... many uninformed remarks made lately by what I refer to as "bitter souls". If anyone thinks I've collected this set to make money on the cards they are truely clueless!

ahkmedbinladen · June 29, 2009 12:00PM

A little sensitive there MiniMaster? I dont recall anyone pointing to you specifically. And clueless is a bit strong. I believe members are just giving opinions on what the future might hold for this set. Pretty hard to predict the future. Bottom line is a ton of product was sold and some of it WILL and HAVE been opened. Tough cards will remain tough but the POP will rise for sure. Grading has gotten tougher on this issue but there will still be nice cards sent in. Remember when you had your head buried in the sand about the "short minis" fiasco and you just didnt want to believe? Hopefully you purged your Hall of Fame set of all those cards. I believe PSA is on the right track with regards to the minis and I agree the sale of the unopened has and will spark new interest in this set. I also believe that the few hardcore mini guys including yourself collect it for the pure joy of it so chill and dont worry that your set will never be worth what you have into it.

grote15 · June 29, 2009 12:49PM

Here are the results from my latest sub under the June special...I sent in 15 of the better card I pulled from an REA box...will send a lot more when the next special rolls around at a more attractive rate per card...was very pleased to land 6 9s and a couple 8.5s out of 15 total cards...was really hoping to score a 9 on the first Ryan to join the Aaron 9 I got back earlier this month.

1 1 14340918 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 269 DOUG RAU Card US
2 1 14340919 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 489 CECIL COOPER Card US
3 1 14340920 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 287 RORIC HARRISON Card US
4 1 14340921 NEAR MINT-MINT+ 8.5 1975 TOPPS MINI 500 NOLAN RYAN Card US
5 1 14340922 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 622 ROOKIE OUTFIELDERS Card US
6 1 14340923 NEAR MINT-MINT+ 8.5 1975 TOPPS MINI 370 TOM SEAVER Card US
7 1 14340924 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 355 CHRIS CANNIZZARO Card US
8 1 14340925 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 228 GEORGE BRETT Card US
9 1 14340926 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 500 NOLAN RYAN Card US
10 1 14340927 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 602 JOHN VUKOVICH Card US
11 1 14340928 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 169 COOKIE ROJAS Card US
12 1 14340929 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 439 ED BRINKMAN Card US
13 1 14340930 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 380 SAL BANDO Card US
14 1 14340931 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 463 WORLD SERIES GAME 3 Card US
15 1 14340932 NEAR MINT-MINT+ 8.5 1975 TOPPS MINI 537 TOMMY HARPER Card US

packCollector · June 29, 2009 12:58PM

I am shipping my last boxes tomorrow so I have no vested interest in the set or packs so I just want to make one last comment on the "hoard". I do not know what the raw lot was or will bear but as far as the unopened, here is the breakdown from the direct knowledge that I have . there were 26 unopened cases. I bought 10 , of those 10 , almost 5 complete cases were sold to a private collector who from my understanding is not opening them and does not sell. THe other 7 case lot went to a well off private collector who has never sold anything in the past. duff won a lot of 3 sealed cases. the other 3 sealed case lot went to a midwest buyer who is putting them away. the other 3 individual cases are what is unaccounted for , 1 was sold on ebay, I don't know where the other 2 went. as for my other 5 cases that I had, of those 1 will most likely be opened by a psa card bulk submitter. 3 of them have already been opened except for a couple boxes, and 1 will be for sale in the near future either in case or box form.

so contrary to popular belief , there is not a lot more to come anytime soon from the wax. the raw lot , I have no clue bt the wax will do little to change supply. have fun , it is a great set , I still have my raw set that I picked up many years ago. one of my favorites.

ahkmedbinladen · June 29, 2009 1:09PM

Nice sub by Grote!!
That raw lot could yield quite a bit of high grade specimens in the right hands. Just taking the REA cases out of the conversation....there is tons of raw high grade minis out there. I have personally seen thousands of gradable minis from a few different sources. I think I have said it before and Ill say it again, Minis are not rare. Great looking cards but not rare or hard to find in high grade. What pack collector said...Have fun with them.

MiniMaster · June 30, 2009 4:28PM

Ahkmed..... you say I'm a little sensitive? I'll agree to disagree

Your reaction definitely has the sound of a "bitter soul"

Indy78 · July 1, 2009 8:25AM

Personally, I've not seen 1,000's of "gradeable" mini's. I've seen many off-centered, dinged, undersized, and creased mini's, but relatively few truly high grade ones. I've yet to see a perfectly centered, clean C. Washington mini, for example. Plenty of off-centered, smudged, and undersized ones, but never that perfect one. I collect both the regular and mini version of 75T BB, and in my experience, the mini's are much harder to find in any condition, let alone "gradeable" condition. This is the main reason I was hesitant to collect these cards in the first place. If I see 1,000's of gradeable mini's at the next show that I attend, I will be buying them up.

ahkmedbinladen · July 1, 2009 9:04AM

Hey maybe all you have seen are garbage minis.Thats too bad for you. Im not kidding. I have seen and own a large amount of high grade minis. As for your C. Washington mini....tough card indeed but I have personally submitted 2 full size, solid colored PSA 8 examples of that card that are as close as your are gonna get to a 9. The 75 minis are a great set and certainly one of my favorites growing up. I do not have any vested interest in this set other than my raw set is from another planet. The hobby needs guys like Mini Master to grossly over pay for cert #s of 9s and 10s which will soon be higher pop cards. Its all good, everyone is entitled to their opinions and what they think the future will hold.

Indy78 · July 1, 2009 10:30AM

Seriously, I want to believe you, but I'll believe when I see it as to the abundance of gradeable mini's out there. Unfortunately, to date, I've seen the opposite. This is one tough set from my perspective.

TypeSetter · July 3, 2009 12:13PM

<< Well stated Jim

I also agree with Grote.... many uninformed remarks made lately by what I refer to as "bitter souls". If anyone thinks I've collected this set to make money on the cards they are truely clueless! >>

You spelled truly incorrectly!
And you love 75 minis! I know and so do the real players on this set!!
You lived in a time when they were fun to collect first hand!
No wonder you love minis!

I wish I had a Sal Bando psa 9!
Capt Sal.....Ole number 6 gave me his uni shirt one day in 1974!

How long before the 19,000 PSA 9-75 topps minis hit the market?

Comments