Wanted this one bad.....

corvette1340 · December 8, 2008 11:20PM

but I didn't get it. The opening bid was $3999 and it ran for 6 days and 20 hours before anyone bid. I waited until 20 seconds left and bid $4908 but others did the same thing. I had the break up value at well above $6000. The graded cards alone had an average VCP of $5300 or so.

1959 Topps Auction

RonBurgundy · December 9, 2008 12:01AM

At that price, if people try to flip that on Ebay they will likely lose money.

slantycouch · December 9, 2008 12:08AM

Pretty good deal with Microsoft cash back though...

corvette1340 · December 9, 2008 12:14AM

<< At that price, if people try to flip that on Ebay they will likely lose money. >>

I ran the VCP on all the graded cards except for the 6 and 7 commons (around 60 or so cards) and the low end VCP was $4500 and the average was $5100. In addition there are 446 raw cards in mostly NearMint condition including the Gibson Rookie, Koufax, Musial, Banks, Mantle Homer, Corsair Trio, Campanella, Clemente, B.Robinson, and most of the all star and high number cards. I think that at a minimum, the set would garner $6000 when breaking it up. Now, after ebay and paypal fees the profit margin didn't justify me going over my bid, but I don't think the buyer is going to lose money. If most of the key cards approach the high end VCP then he is going to make some decent profit. The Mantle alone will bring $1600-$1900.

RonBurgundy · December 9, 2008 12:25AM

I looked at that lot pretty closely. The buyer said 40% of the raw cards were NM. Reduce that by 10% for Ebay puffery, so you have 30% NM. That leaves 70% EX-Mt and worse. Koufax, Clemente, Mathews, Spahn, B Robinson were all off center, which basically makes them EX-ish cards that would wholesale at 25% of BV and retail for 40% on a good day. I didn't even see the Gibson RC scanned. So I don't think the raw cards would sell as well as you think.

Second, the VCP on the graded stuff is a backwards looking tool. Project forward how these cards are going to sell in January and February, when the economy is going to be brutal. Drop the VCP on them by 10-20%. I'm generally optimistic about the card market but not for the next few months, and I doubt the buyer is going to approach high end VCP unless he holds the cards for awhile. Six months ago I might have agreed the buyer got a decent deal. Not now.

Third, if you intend to flip on Ebay whack 15% off the bat for Papal and Fleecing Fees. That doesn't even account for your time scanning, etc. which I conservatively estimate to cost $1 per card.

The buyer may make money breaking it but it's probably not going to be nearly as much as he thinks.

Ron

sagard · December 9, 2008 12:39AM

I think that was a pretty good buy at that price. VPC average can be beaten by 10-15% using BIN/BO. That Mick would likely get another trip or two to Newport Beach.

It's a lot of work to break down a set like that, but if you have the time I think some money could be made on that one. Not likely a great hourly rate to be sure.

larryallen73 · December 9, 2008 1:00AM

I agree with what Ron said.

If one values their time to sell everything at ZERO I think you will still see very little profit. Furthermore I think there is much more risk. How long would it take to sell all the cards? What if some buyers pull a scam on you? It may be a decent price for someone to add it to their collection but not to flip in the next couple of years. Our economy is heading down, down, down.

IchiroDeported · December 9, 2008 1:03AM

i dont think your gonna make money on this one.

fiveniner · December 9, 2008 1:27AM

<< I agree with what Ron said.

If one values their time to sell everything at ZERO I think you will still see very little profit. Furthermore I think there is much more risk. How long would it take to sell all the cards? What if some buyers pull a scam on you? It may be a decent price for someone to add it to their collection but not to flip in the next couple of years. Our economy is heading down, down, down. >>

That is so true I am now picking up 59s at a fairly lower price than I did a year ago especially 8s and tough to find cards in 7.

WinPitcher · December 9, 2008 1:28AM

I'd add my 2 cents but Tommy would accuse me of being negative.

Steve

Edited to add: That seller, Steve Novella, does sell high quality items and does not engage in the usual puffery.

julen23 · December 9, 2008 1:55AM

but 4 building a set, a good buy huh?

j

WinPitcher · December 9, 2008 2:26AM

Julen I did not do the math but Steve Novella usually sells top shelf items.

Steve

corvette1340 · December 9, 2008 2:40AM

I don't care if you are negative on this one Steve. I did not buy this one but I would like to have. I thought that around $4500 or so was a steal on this set. I went a little above on my bid because I still think that there is money to be made. As I said before, the VCP on the graded star cards and PSA 8's (60 or so cards) was average $5100+ and the low end total was about $4500. I didn't add up the high end total. That being said, it is likely that selling these would result lower than the $4500 but possibly above. Some of those higher end star cards might fetch a premium and the lower pop 8's are still sought after. I did not even run the lower pop 7's and 6's.

Add in the 446 raw cards that most likely average Exmt-Nrmt and I think $6000 is about right. If the seller knows what he's doing then I think more profit is possible. Also, some more of the raw cards might be worth sending to PSA.

I guess I just like to gamble more than the average person on here.

WinPitcher · December 9, 2008 2:48AM

First of all I was never negative regarding your 61 set nor your 53 Mantle, as for the 65 set I was replying to others when you
began your bash of me. What I wanted to say that day but never got the chance was that you basically got the 65 set for less then 4.00
per card, a pretty good deal if you think about it that way. Will the set average out to 7.5 to 8.00? probably not, however, with that said
at 4.00 per card you could prolly make some dough selling the low pops graded and blowing out what you feel won't grade 8 or above.

My advice is to go to the pop report and see what cards are low pop in 8 and when the set comes look at those.

I'd tell what they are since I know that particular set like the back of my hand but wouldn't want to take some of your fun away.

Like I said in my very first post in that thread "Good luck with it Corvette"

Steve

julen23 · December 9, 2008 2:53AM

buyer's market.

i friggin sold a psa 9 george brett mini rc (an upgrade from set registrant who got a psa 10 to replace his psa 9 beauty) and it sold for like $450.

i was disgusted.

j

JiveTalkinStu · December 9, 2008 3:44AM

The economy is in shambles, whoever bought this paid way too much

WinPitcher · December 9, 2008 4:16AM

Oh I don't know about that, Steve Novella usually sells high quality stuff, if he says it is 90% Ex/mnt or better I believe him.

he is not your run of the mill schmoe seller on ebay.

Steve

RonBurgundy · December 9, 2008 4:18AM

Ok, let's do a little math here. Let's ignore the bad economy for a moment and say the graded cards sell for the midpoint between the low and high end of VCP, or $4800. Now let's say the remaining raw cards sell for $2200, an average of of $5 per card. That's $7000. Now subtract 13% for Ebay and Papal fees, and whack off another 4.5% for the time invested in scanning, listing, packaging, and shipping the cards. Now you're down to $5775. You bought it for $4900, so you made $875 or 16%. That's not too bad but there are a lot of assumptions built into that and I think that's the best case scenario.

RB

WinPitcher · December 9, 2008 4:23AM

Ron

Alot of that can be made up with handling. 3.00 per card to ship a card adds up.

Is it a great deal for resale? Probably not, Steve Novella is not known for leaving money on the table either.

Is it a pretty good deal if one wants that set for a collection? Could be.

Steve

edited typo

Tabe · December 9, 2008 4:25AM

<< Pretty good deal with Microsoft cash back though... >>

Wasn't a BIN so no cashback deal. And the cashback is only at 8% right now anyway.

Tabe

slantycouch · December 9, 2008 4:30AM

<< 

<< Pretty good deal with Microsoft cash back though... >>

Wasn't a BIN so no cashback deal. And the cashback is only at 8% right now anyway.

Tabe >>

Yeah but inoring all of the facts would have made it a good deal with cash back!

(thanks for correcting me)

corvette1340 · December 9, 2008 5:49AM

<< Ok, let's do a little math here. Let's ignore the bad economy for a moment and say the graded cards sell for the midpoint between the low and high end of VCP, or $4800. Now let's say the remaining raw cards sell for $2200, an average of of $5 per card. That's $7000. Now subtract 13% for Ebay and Papal fees, and whack off another 4.5% for the time invested in scanning, listing, packaging, and shipping the cards. Now you're down to $5775. You bought it for $4900, so you made $875 or 16%. That's not too bad but there are a lot of assumptions built into that and I think that's the best case scenario.

RB >>

Ron,
You are right on with your figures but I guess I don't really weigh in the time factor or amount of work I put into the set after I purchase it for resale. Im my situation I can sit in my office at my real job and do all of the stuff. It is also really fun for me and makes the day go by faster. I still get paid the same amount of money at my real job whether I'm scanning and sorting through cards or if I'm playing internet poker so I guess it seems like a better deal for me personally.

leadoff4 · December 9, 2008 7:39AM

What a job!!!... if only eBay and these message boards weren't blocked at my job

RonBurgundy · December 10, 2008 4:39AM

Steve,

Agree with your comments. If someone was buying this to keep as a set, it's not a bad purchase IMO. Especially if you want to upgrade it slowly over time.

RB

SDavid · December 10, 2008 6:08AM

Alot of that can be made up with handling. 3.00 per card to ship a card adds up.

Yup. Plus, for auctions, ebay's final value fees drop to 3.75% after the first $25. The typical seller's handling charges eat up much of the 8.75% fee on lower end cards...most sellers probably net close to a buck in ebay fees (including the .15 listing fee) for cards that sell for $25, plus the 3% paypal fees for the whole purchase (about 85 cents). For true auctions, the fees are still dirt cheap.

SDavid · December 10, 2008 6:21AM

Corvette - The best luck I ever had buying lots off ebay was buying several smaller modern lots that went under the radar, and then selling them off in one big lot, and maybe throwing in some popular rookies to spice things up.

I never bought too many vintage lots off ebay...too often they were either clearly in garbage condition or the scans gave no indication what the buyer was getting.

Wanted this one bad.....

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