PSA 9 prices vs. PSA 8 prices....
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Given that 1950's & 1960's PSA 9's are no longer scarce in most cases, I'm wondering if people think that the multiple afforded PSA 9's is going to begin to shrink? In most cases multiples ranges from 3x to 5x, with some PSA 9 stars going for up to 10x the PSA 8 price.
As PSA 9's become more and more common, do you think that their prices will shrink in relation to PSA 8 prices?
As PSA 9's become more and more common, do you think that their prices will shrink in relation to PSA 8 prices?
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worth more than the 8s.
<< <i>I think ALL prices of ALL cards will "shrink," BUT the 9s will still be
worth more than the 8s. >>
I agree 100%, and it is already ahppening in a mjor way. For star cards in the 50's/60's I have been picking up mid-grade examples for very very cheap recently. Anywhere from a 25 to 50% discount off of SMR.
Second tier HOF's I think will see a big dropoff in their high pop cards. The days of getting $900 for a PSA 9 1969 Brooks Robinson are over. Heck it's hard to get $100 out of a PSA 9 1969 Stargell. However you could name your price for a PSA 9 1969 Lou Brock. It's all about rarity for the lower tier HOF cards.
I still think RC of HOFs will go up in value, especially 9's. As 8's become commodity cards high end collectors will try and distance their collections from the masses with 9's. Due to the popularity of RC collecting and player set collecting that will keep prices for 9's going up for a good while.
<< <i>It's still based on rarity and popularity. Mantle cards 5 years ago where a little soft, especially the 60's (excluding 62). Now his cards are hot again but the pops for his cards are still the highest for any player (due to the fact people actually kept his cards from a pack and tried to take care of them). I don't see his cards going down for awhile.
Second tier HOF's I think will see a big dropoff in their high pop cards. The days of getting $900 for a PSA 9 1969 Brooks Robinson are over. Heck it's hard to get $100 out of a PSA 9 1969 Stargell. However you could name your price for a PSA 9 1969 Lou Brock. It's all about rarity for the lower tier HOF cards.
I still think RC of HOFs will go up in value, especially 9's. As 8's become commodity cards high end collectors will try and distance their collections from the masses with 9's. Due to the popularity of RC collecting and player set collecting that will keep prices for 9's going up for a good while. >>
+1
Key cards will always fare well, short of economy collapse
If you need proof, just take a look at what the state quarters have done for bringing in new collectors to coins.
<< <i>The best thing that could be done is greater interest in card collecting and bringing fresh faces into this hobby. It sure doesn't help with the oversaturation of modern issues still out there. If you get a significant amount of new collectors in, who eventually will gravitate towards vintage, and graded cards, the natural rise in populations will still not take into account the overall rarity and demand for those high grade cards.
If you need proof, just take a look at what the state quarters have done for bringing in new collectors to coins. >>
Very true, but the majority of those that come into the hobby now either collect rookies or autos. The fact that Rookies include vintage will keep those cards hot,
especially the superstars.
Buy low. Sell high. Wear Sex Panther.
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Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>Sometimes when you buy low, high never comes back... >>
You just have to buy lower then. Remember the money is made when you buy the card not sell it. Right now with the economy bad in some areas those who are fortunate to live in an area not as affected should be buying.
Qualitatively, PSA 9 cards are not so much nicer than PSA 8 cards as to be worth 3x-5x more. I'd never buy a PSA 9 quality card for my personal collection, for example, because I will always be able to get an equally good looking PSA 8 quality card for much cheaper.
Although I rarely bought graded cards at all up until this spring, now that I've learned how to crack them out safely, I am buying a lot of PSA 7's and 8's for the raw sets I am working on.
As to PSA 9's, it seems to me that primary demand comes from Registry guys looking to move up the ladder. Now that PSA 9's are becoming easier and easier to find, are we at the point where the supply of PSA 9's is going to start outweighing demand for them?
Supply/Demand - This hobby is in need of new collectors big time. Look at the demographics at shows. I do
not collect vintage so I just don't know much about it. My assumption is that folks still have an aboundance
of raw cards worthy of grading. The high end stuff will always bring money, but not as much as more cards
enter the grading community.
Buy Low/Sell High - This is so true, but do your homework. Man, there are bargains out there for everyone.
Don't go crazy and you will be OK. I have a few items I would like to pick. Nothing major of course since my
budget is limited to about 1K (max) per year on cards, including PSA submissions.
<< <i>I guess my question to some extent is really "what is going to keep PSA 9 prices high?"
>>
The only exception I see are cards that will remain in high demand...namely HOF rookies, and classic cards.
The type of people that spend exhorbanant amount of $ on baseball cards, have no desire for an 8 when a 9 is attainable.
Price factor means little to these type of buyers. It's all about what you can afford and supply vs demand.
THis will ALWAYS be true.
EDIT TO ADD, of course there will be auction wars for the set builders...that plays a little bit to luck of listing
at the right time when 2 or more people are going after the same card that rarely shows up...
<< <i>I've got some advice for ya:
Buy low. Sell high. Wear Sex Panther.
Burgundy >>
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Both are following similar paths. 1988 Donruss is overprinted, but the "investor" bought it as if it would appreciate in value like older cards which had much, much smaller print runs. The state quarters, though fascinating, have some states (between P-D-S mintmarks) which have over ONE BILLION of each printed. Nothing with a print run of one billion will EVER have any scarcity or value (other than 25 cents) attached to it.
20 years from now, just like with the 88 Donruss, you will have beginner coin collectors selling their state quarter collection and thinking they have a bundle, but are then saddened and angry at the hobby because their items are worth the same or less than when they bought them