2008 Belmont Stakes , Any opinions on the big race
TNTonPMS
Posts: 2,279 ✭✭
I'll be there !
I'm leaving in about a half hour or so ,
1-1/2 miles in the big race , I'm really hoping to see Big Brown take it today only because it hasn't been done in so long ,
I am planning on using him in some of my picks , I'll use him with a longshot too so maybe I make a lil money as well as having a great time there .
I like to try to make it every year although I have not been able to make it the last 2 years in a row .
I have a few different ways I bet , this time I will try the scientific way , been crunching numbers and stats for two days now .
My son will go by the names of course and my wife will too probably , or she might just go by the numbers , sometimes I like to do that too, I will play the 2, 1, and the 7 in every race for like 2 bucks straight and boxed because it's my house number and my old man's birth date , we used to love to get to these races so I go and remember the times we had and use those numbers in his memory .
Chances are I'll probably blow through a lot of money but maybe lady luck will be on my side today .
It don't matter though , it's always a great day there on this raceday .
Bringin the laptop , just in case I have to crunch some more figures and stats due to late scratches . . . only thing is it is really hot here today and I really don't like carrying much , but it is kind of a must .
I'm leaving in about a half hour or so ,
1-1/2 miles in the big race , I'm really hoping to see Big Brown take it today only because it hasn't been done in so long ,
I am planning on using him in some of my picks , I'll use him with a longshot too so maybe I make a lil money as well as having a great time there .
I like to try to make it every year although I have not been able to make it the last 2 years in a row .
I have a few different ways I bet , this time I will try the scientific way , been crunching numbers and stats for two days now .
My son will go by the names of course and my wife will too probably , or she might just go by the numbers , sometimes I like to do that too, I will play the 2, 1, and the 7 in every race for like 2 bucks straight and boxed because it's my house number and my old man's birth date , we used to love to get to these races so I go and remember the times we had and use those numbers in his memory .
Chances are I'll probably blow through a lot of money but maybe lady luck will be on my side today .
It don't matter though , it's always a great day there on this raceday .
Bringin the laptop , just in case I have to crunch some more figures and stats due to late scratches . . . only thing is it is really hot here today and I really don't like carrying much , but it is kind of a must .
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email bcmiller7@comcast.net
And no, if you then stick the original ticket back in the tote macine, it will not payoff again. LOL
This place is friggin insane right now and the big race isn't for a few more hours !
I couldn't even begin to tell you how many people are here but the place is packed out !
My son hit the trifecta in the 7th , can you effin believe it !
he just went with the names and hit for 2300.00 !
I'm friggin blown away , today is his lucky day to say the least !
Of course I have to play them for him , but he gave me the names of the horses and I did not deviate from what he wanted even though I wouldn't have picked those 3 in a million years , just goes to show . . . anything can happen .
Well, I'm gonna get back , he wants to put all the money on one horse , I'm like YEA right ! but then again , maybe lady luck is on his side today , but still that is crazy , he won more than we even came to the track with !
Edited to add : Sorry , , he hit on the 4 , the 1 and the 6 !
On paper the 4 horse had 3 legs , not a chance in the world this horse could win . . . . not a chance ! LOL It is safe to say there is no system other than his , it seems to work really well .
That's all I can say , this place is going nuts !
Lmgdao Nick , maybe it's a good thing ya kept on goin
These people want to hang the jockey of big brown , In my heart I knew he couldn't win and wouldn't win but still threw a little money on him mixed in with a couple of long shots to place and show ,
Still waiting on the show to post , it was a photo finish . .
All in all it was a great day , my son had a better day than all of us though . . . that is one lucky and happy little guy , he can take us out to dinner tonight . . .
We're BROKE !
<< <i>I really just wanted to see a winner after 30 years , but it was not to be , Big brown looked like he was struggling right from the begining and came in dead last . . .so I guess history was made today , it has to be the first time the favorite finished dead last .
All in all it was a great day , my son had a better day than all of us though . . . that is one lucky and happy little guy , he can take us out to dinner tonight . . .
We're BROKE !
I was at Belmont Park for the last Triple Crown winner in 1978 when of course Affirmed won the race...which was one of the best horse races I ever saw. But never in mine or almost anyone's wildest imagination would we have thought that 30 years would go by without yet another one, especially since that had been the third one in six years.
<< <i>so I guess history was made today , it has to be the first time the favorite finished dead last . >>
Not quite true, but close. Definitely the first time a horse who had a chance to win the Triple Crown came in last, but in the 1996 running of the Belmont Stakes Cavonnier, who was beaten in the 1996 Kentucky Derby by the smallest margin ever, pulled up lame and did not finish.
Cavonnier was a gelding so no stud duty for him. His owners have him on their farm in near Santa Rosa, north of San Francisco in wine country. Every so often he puts in an appearance at the annual Santa Rosa Fair and is treated like a rock star.
the traffic was insane but a chance for history was worth the trip
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That is cool and I can completely understand why too.
They're such beautiful horses .
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wow the crowd went silent at the 1/4 pole....,.very sad....
the traffic was insane but a chance for history was worth the trip
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LOL you aint kidding, beyond nuts !
I am not sure how many people the place holds as far as seating but I'm going to say there were at least 5 times that amount easy!
There were a few times I almost didn't make it before they stopped the betting before the race , either talking or trying to get a look at the horses before the race or getting a drink .
My friend was supposed to meet us there but he left late and apparently they weren't letting anyone inside the place after about the 5th race , even I left later than I wanted to and missed a few races myself and was worried I might not get inside .
I agree with you Mr. cohocorp, obviously there was something wrong , from where I was standing I really couldn't get a great view so we stood by some of the monitors and it looked like he got bumped or hit a few times right in the begining of the race but I really don't think that alone would have stopped him from running ?
But rather than risk injury or death of the horse I feel the jockey did the right thing , going into the gate though the horse look fine , he was not even swetting like some of the other horses were so it is so hard to say exactly what happened , Big Brown looked cool as a cucumber .
That is such a beautiful park and it is not that far from my home , about 25 miles west so it did not take us that long to get back to the area .
Unfortunately my wife and I did not hit on any of the races , I was trying multiple combinations and I think with me I try to think too much into the race but I don't know if anyone could possibly figure out all of the variables that are in play on any given race , along with past history and conditions and stuff .
Great day though . . . Too bad it only happens once a year .
The crowd was insane but I am the type of person that likes a huge crowd , my wife hates it my son he could take it or leave it nothing really bothered him on this day ,.
I heard and I don't know how much truth there is in this statement , but supposedly the trainer guaranteed victory for Big Brown ?
I couldn't even imagine how bad that guy feels if that is true .
That is something I could have never done , even if I felt the same way .
That is a recipe for disaster .
sorry fell asleep reading about horseracing...did i miss the race?
<< <i>Yea, that was really amazing to see/hear a crowd like that go damn near silent all of the sudden , I don't even know what to compare it to .
I heard and I don't know how much truth there is in this statement , but supposedly the trainer guaranteed victory for Big Brown ?
I couldn't even imagine how bad that guy feels if that is true .
That is something I could have never done , even if I felt the same way .
That is a recipe for disaster . >>
Yeah, he did that during the walk to the racing thingies. (Show you how often I watch horse racing.) It was kinda funny because a couple people in the room, I had a few people for other reasons, they mentioned the horse was cursed now and I noted Joe Namath and the Jets. A little later they were interviewing one of the other hopefuls and they repeated the guarantee to the jockey, he mentioned something about Namath, which I thought was funny. Being the other guy I would have mentioned a guarantee that didn't happen.
I won $20 on the race. I bet with one of my friends against Big Brown. It seems every couple years they get me to watch 3-4 hours on racing so I can watch a two-minute race and the Crown candidate loses....so I figured I had the odds.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
As i am a regular to the track (Santa Anita used to be my backyard)..and a regular better and previous horse owner, the build up was great, but the ending was very disappointing. Eventually they will most likely find the cause as there was no external injuries. Kent stated BB was slipping around on the track. If BB was never comfortable on the surface, i would throw this race out. investors of the horse have a bigger problem...Can they afford another huge defeat with 50 MIL hanging out there. That would totally de-value the stud fees, which have already come back to earth after yesterday's loss. As a former owner--Kent may get ripped for pulling BB up--- but i'd like to see PETA come out and give Kent praise for protecting the horse---but they won't...
Now I did see BB fighting him a little in the begining and I did see BB get kicked , but they said getting kicked is common and he should have been able to work through that .
Now they're saying the horse was supposed to have a steroid shot and the owner or trainer wanted to prove he could win clean , with no injection , it really makes me wonder if that has something to do with the horses aggressivness or even his will to want to run at all .
Out of all the horses going into the gate in the begining of the race , BB looked like the only one not wanting to go in .
They checked the horse for internal injuries or bleeding and said BB checked out , no problems . .
From what I understand a lot of horses lungs do bleed after a race and I think they give the horse a medication called lasix.
Some are more severe than others , some you can't even tell with the naked eye .
As a young boy I spent a lot of time at Belmont , Aquaduct and the Meadowlands with my father , back then I really didn't have much interest in the races , But I do remember a lot of what he would try to explain to me about the horses .
Thinking back . . . those were great times and I wish I could do it again with him , Matter of fact remembering back , I used to pick the horses like my son , it's funny , I remember picking the winner for my father a few times and him saying . .
" There aint a chance in hell that horse can win "
" The horse has 3 legs "
I would say , noooo, I just went to see him , he has all 4 legs, I'm sure of it "
Much like what I told my son yesterday before he won on one of the races for big bucks!
My wife thought we were kidding her and as the horses crossed the line I was really only paying attention to my ticket forgetting all about his , which I was certain there was no way he could win .
From now on I think I'll change my strategy . . .
Unfriggin believable !
<< <i>As i am a regular to the track (Santa Anita used to be my backyard)..and a regular better and previous horse owner, the build up was great, but the ending was very disappointing. Eventually they will most likely find the cause as there was no external injuries. Kent stated BB was slipping around on the track. If BB was never comfortable on the surface, i would throw this race out. investors of the horse have a bigger problem...Can they afford another huge defeat with 50 MIL hanging out there. That would totally de-value the stud fees, which have already come back to earth after yesterday's loss. As a former owner--Kent may get ripped for pulling BB up--- but i'd like to see PETA come out and give Kent praise for protecting the horse---but they won't... >>
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That is pretty cool you used to have a horse Mr. Carew and I expect you're right about the stud fees as well being he didn't win the final race but I also expect they still won't be cheap by any means either .
If I could ask , why did you get out of racing /being an owner ?
that seems like a really cool gig but I won't pretend to know the inner workings or responsibilities of such a thing .
Also could I ask what your horses name was and his/her record ?
Not trying to pry , I just find that really cool and interesting
I have a feling Kent might get ripped it they find out it was all the driver and maybe he was paid to pull up on him which wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility either I suppose ?
Jeeeze, Imagine that !
<< <i>--- but i'd like to see PETA come out and give Kent praise for protecting the horse---but they won't... >>
The Belmont stands were packed, and I'm willing to be the TV ratings were good for a horse racing event, and I even overheard two people who were obviously not regular racing fans talking (positively) about the race at a restaurant the night before.
Man, those PETA protests must really be working, eh?
I'll agree with what Carew29 said, when I saw the overhead shot from the blimp it looked to me like Big Brown's action (way of running) wasn't as smooth as in the Derby and Preakness. The track surface at Belmont has a much different composition than the other two tracks and some just don't handle it. The Belmont surface proved to be the undoing of two of the greats of the past two decades who were trying to win the Triple Crown.
In 1987 Alysheba won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and in the Belmont was either the victim of a bad ride (jockey Chris McCarron freely admits) and/or not comfortable as he never got going again after running into traffic on the last turn. He went on to become 3 year old champion in 1987 and finished 2nd in the Breeder's Cup classic in one of the most thrilling races I've ever seen and one of the best race calls ever. As a four year old he was nearly unbeatable and capped off a brilliant career with a dominating win in the 1988 Breeeders Cup classic.
This is the stuff that those of us who love racing live for:
1987 Breeders Cup Classic (YouTube)
In 1989 Derby/Preakness winner Sunday Silence, like Big Brown, just didn't have it that day and finished well beaten by his arch rival Easy Goer. He too went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic again beating Easy Goer. Some consider him the best race horse in the last 20 years. Because he didn't have a fashionable pedigree he was not a popular stallion prospect, and his primary owner, facing a cash crunch tried to sell him. Eventually a deal was made (I think it was for around $8M at the time) with a Japanese breeder and SS was off to Japan.
Sunday Silence proved to be an even bigger stud in the breeding shed than he was on he track. He was the leading sire by earnings in Japan from 1995 through 2007. His offspring have won conservatively over $500M in purse money and major races all over the world. He became something of a national icon in Japan.
I respectfully disagree though with lsutigers1973 regarding BB stud fees. As a Kentucky Derby winner and dual classic winner he'll be able to command high stud fees right out of the gate, at least until his first two year olds start running and the ability of those runners can be determined. Should he win the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in August and beat or run well against Curlin (possiblly the best race horse on the planet right now) in the Breeders Cup Classic his value will rise. Horses can only breed when the mares are ready and that happens mid-February through July so there is really no reason not to run Big Brown again if he's healthy.
Worse case scenario of course.
if there is nothing found to be wrong with the horse, i really wonder WHY he was pulled up so early.......makes the conspiracy theorists very exicted.....
It's absolutely simple and crystal clear - the horse ran out of gas due to an incompetent ride by Kent Desormeax. Perhaps the lack of his usual steroid injection had something to do with it as well.
This horse will bounce back fine in its next race.
in watching the replay it seemed that BB brushed up against and ran into a horse in 2 separate occasions..that seems to be jockey fault...he started at postiton 1 and its not like there were 20 horses in this race.....
<< <i>Worse case scenario of course. >>
Of course!
Remember this horse has never run much over a mile Belmont it 1.5 miles that means in this race the spot where the final charge started for BB was the finish line for most races. The dirt at Belmont is also softer than other tracks this means that he was possibly sinking in the track a little more causing him to work harder to keep pace thus tiring sooner.
There is nothing wrong with him it was just not his day.
There is also so much underhanded dealings in horse racing it is entirely possible the Owner had the jockey "throw" the race to capitalize on other bets he had made. There is a UK bet where you bet on the horse to finish dead last.
<< <i>I don't understand all the issues about the horse, I have watched the race several times and it just looked like he just simply did not have the stuff that day. We have days where there is nothing wrong with us we just don't want to do it. Horses are not much different. It is not uncommon for horses to have issues getting into the gate.
Remember this horse has never run much over a mile Belmont it 1.5 miles that means in this race the spot where the final charge started for BB was the finish line for most races. The dirt at Belmont is also softer than other tracks this means that he was possibly sinking in the track a little more causing him to work harder to keep pace thus tiring sooner.
There is nothing wrong with him it was just not his day.
There is also so much underhanded dealings in horse racing it is entirely possible the Owner had the jockey "throw" the race to capitalize on other bets he had made. There is a UK bet where you bet on the horse to finish dead last. >>
That is correct what you stated, however I still believe the major problem was the ride of Desormeax.
The stable has already indicated that they'll point this horse to the Travers, and he'll finish first or second in that race with no problem, and will go off as the favorite. And will likely get say a 7f tuneup race before the Travers.
I have some doubts though whether they'll run this horse in the BC Classic or not - they may choose a lesser BC event - he'd have to really perform well in the Travers to run in the BC Classic.
Hi TNTonPMS--Years back(mid 80's) i was in the (Et Al) of Clover Racing Stables which was owned by Jeff Seigel and Barry Irwin (of www.nationalturf.com fame). I was also in the claiming game as a partner with some neighbors of mine. The one i have a photo of in my office is "Oceans Eleven". Beautiful horse with the longest neck you have ever seen!! He was also 17 hands to the shoulder (huge horse!!). I believe the final record was 2 wins out of 15 starts. One of my best friends is Ted West Sr.( trainer of Budroyale and Bluesthestandard). His son Ted Jr. has taken over the family operations and are doing quite well at Hollywood Park right now. I usually visit them when it goes to Del Mar as i live in Vancouver,WA currently. Due to rising cost i had to drop out. At the time it was around $2,000 (stall,feed,excerise) a month per horse. Ill assume 20 years later that it has increased quite a bit. I'll equate the experience of an owner's win to that of getting a 52' MANTLE back from PSA in a 10!!
Love this game!!--BTW i still donate to the Don Macbeth Fund for jocks...website
<< <i>The one i have a photo of in my office is "Oceans Eleven". Beautiful horse with the longest neck you have ever seen!! He was also 17 hands to the shoulder (huge horse!!). >>
Carew29 - this ought to make your day...I remember Oceans Eleven very well. He came up to Golden Gate Fields to run. I don't think I've every seen a horse that tall before from ground to head. He was a giant! If memory serves he was a fine looking horse but when he ran it was like a very tall kid who hadn't grown into is body yet. Huge ground eating strides but not very fluid and lots of trouble changing leads.
You are correct--he definitely had that "closer" style. That was part of the problem, took him forever to get those long legs going. Any jock on him looked like a 5 year old sitting up there