Auctions on eBay: A Dying Breed
blades3
Posts: 141
blades3
Posts: 141
blades3
Posts: 141
Comments
because you dont have to start at the beginning.. you can start right at the finish line and jump in and win..
I use an auction sniper too.. so I am just as guilty.. auctions don't end until there are no more bids after a certain amount of time..
I think maybe if ebay went to that format like, a bid placed at the last 3 seconds adds 15 minutes onto the auction
give people a chance.. maybe generate more income... people love to compete for stuff.. it is an adrenaline rush
I know I like buying buy it nows because I don't wanna lose out at the last second even with a snipe..
The author is just realizing the maturing of the buyers and the stiff competition that goes along with the volume of the business.
Collect Auctions
I'm not the smartest cat, but I suspect that some people didn't care about spending money. THEY JUST WANTED TO WIN THE AUCTION, e.g., the adrenaline rush and saying to yourself that it outbid everyone.
/s/ JackWESQ
Mark
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
<< <i>... However, if you were a seller five years ago, and are a seller today, I think you will agree, eBay is not what it was and money is no longer there (the way it was). People will always buy what is hot and someone is always will to start something at $0.01 worth $100. I do have to question my involvement in eBay in the next two years.
Mark >>
Yes, I do agree.... but i think it has a lot to do with the maturing of the buyers. Due to the volume, the buyers in most cases are willing to wait until a cheaper one comes along. Those items that truly are rare, and do not come along often, are still demanding top dollar. Also with the maturing of the buyers, comes the knowledge of snipe tools, which does take the novelty out of the win.
i dont even do best offer, because most of the time they are a waste, the seller comes back with an offer $20 less than the BIN....
i ask the sellers, would you rather sell it a bit lower with an auction, or not sell it at all with a bad BIN.....some sellers seem to sell the same item over and over BIN, and each time raise the BIN to cover the relisting expense.....
i swear some sellers try to lose money-or at least increase their costs as a type of hobby loss write-off....
it seems others sellers use BIN to show off their stuff as an ego boost with no intention of selling it....
i hate BIN!! EBAY WAS FOUNDED AS AN AUCTION SITE AND IT SHOULD RETURN TO THAT!!!!
they make more money when an item sells, not when it is listed 10 times over using BIN
With that said, I never bid on a card I truly want until the very end. I am guilty as anyone. Why drive up the price, if you can get lucky at the end? I like taking that chance over getting into a bid war for 7 days with some clown.
Auctions are NOT a major part of the future of EBAY.
In two weeks, Donahoe will lay out - in exhausting detail - exactly what
his time-frame is for creating a beast that will try to eat AMZN. The FACT
is that EBAY will NEVER be able to compete with AMZN; JD's destructive
campaign will fail and he will be sent packing with a hundred-million dollar
severance package before 2011. (JD is using a business theory sometimes
called "disruptive innovation." It does not work with fully matured/exhausted
enterprises; cash-flows/revenues are almost always killed before the
"innovations" catch on.)
To get an advance look at JD's blind-vision, check out three of the first
BIG vendors that have been sucked into the mix during the past month:
buy.com: 500K+ BINs. If we bust those out as multiple-listings, there
are likely HUNDREDS-of-millions of items. MUCH of the merch is exhausted
junk that went unsold for several years. Buy is now believed to pay ZERO
listing fees; negotiated FVFs are paid on sale.
burbanksportscards: 200K+ BINS. They are what they are. Their $ deal
with JD is believed to be similar to buy's.
GM: More than 5000 General Motors dealers, will list their ENTIRE inventory
of GM-Certified pre-owned cars. Again, EBAY will likely get paid ONLY on the
back-end.
The sell-through-rates (STR) of these biggies remains under 3%. What if
only 1% of your listings sold?
DOZENS more BIG sellers are in negotiations to move their ENTIRE stock
onto EBAY. All BIN sellers; all FVF contributors ONLY. Every category will
be flooded with Chi-Com garbage that can be had at Wally-World for
less money.
Small fulltime sellers on EBAY got tired of giving stuff away at opening bids.
They learned that traffic was sufficient to support higher BINs. Those who
have not gone elsewhere, will continue the transition.
There will not be a major player stepping-up to save the auction fad. YHOO
failed in its effort; GOOG won't waste their time/money.
There is still TONS of money to be made on EBAY. Stores are cheap, and will
likely be "free," using the model that is currently being tested in Italy. I
ain't leaving.
Those who are interested in tracking the happenings at EBAY are advised
to read auctionbytes.com. Ina Steiner blogs events daily; she is NOT
anti-EBAY, but she does cover the sellers' side of the story.
There is a political backstory to the drama, too. Meg is certainly on the
short-list for MCs VP. If Mc does not win, EBAY's access to Federal
regulators will be substantially diminished. This could very well lead
to swift attepts to "regulate" EBAY out-of-business. The company
simply cannot afford to defend such an attack.
EBAY is a great short-position to hold in a core-portfolio. It should be
built slowly, on any PPS strength. EBAY has the PE of a growth-stock;
about 100. EBAY is an exhausted heap that should be trading like
a penny-stock. PayPal is its ONLY sustainable contributor. Before
2012, EBAY should be trading well under $10. The only risk to the
drop is a buyout. Who wants to buy a nearly croaked outfit?
<< <i>Fandango, I don't use a snipe service, but only do it manually.
With that said, I never bid on a card I truly want until the very end. I am guilty as anyone. Why drive up the price, if you can get lucky at the end? I like taking that chance over getting into a bid war for 7 days with some clown. >>
Using your logic, why not use snipe? Just curious?
<< <i>The bizweek story is pretty poorly drafted, but it does convey the truth:
Auctions are NOT a major part of the future of EBAY.
In two weeks, Donahoe will lay out - in exhausting detail - exactly what
his time-frame is for creating a beast that will try to eat AMZN. ... >>
Interesting story, but I disagree with the author......they may change their features and their face, but Ebay will always continue to dominate and grow... even though I am not always in favor of their changes...
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The only sites they now dominate are the ghost-towns.
There is NO place to grow.
PayPal will be spun-off to shareholders, and EBAY will fail in any contest with AMZN.
EBAY will certainly exist in some form, but it will look nothing like it did in 2000-2005.
<< <i>"...but Ebay will always continue to dominate and grow... "
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The only sites they now dominate are the ghost-towns.
There is NO place to grow.
PayPal will be spun-off to shareholders, and EBAY will fail in any contest with AMZN.
EBAY will certainly exist in some form, but it will look nothing like it did in 2000-2005. >>
THey dominate the way we buy cards for one...They will always continue to dominate as an auction house, or whatever you want to call it.
No one competes with them for what they do now, and IMO, they will continue to own that market. I know all about amazon, i just bought
my 7.1 system there....each serves a purpose. I don't foresee me buying cards at amazon in anytime in the future. I can see EBAY branching out,
but i can also see them holding on to the lion share of what they already dominate.
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There is alot of speculation that JD plans to make a distinct platform for collectibles.
That will/should allow the aucton folks to continue their game.
When "Live-Auctions" cease in July/August, alot of bidders with money will move
to the sites of the major auctioneers. That could have a slight depressing effect
on card prices realized in many EBAY auctions. (MANY live auction players buy
other stuff while they are on EBAY. They will now have fewer reasons to visit EBAY.)
Commodity items are just never going to be the auction profit-centers they were
in the day. BIN is just too easy and fast.
count me as one of the ebayers looking elsewhere for live auctions!
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As a buyer, I prefer auctions, too. Especially now that closing
prices are usually lower than they used to be.
As a seller of commodity items, I cannot make money on auctions.
That is why I use BINs.
<< <i>"I can see EBAY branching out, but i can also see them holding on to the lion share of what they already dominate."
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There is alot of speculation that JD plans to make a distinct platform for collectibles.
That will/should allow the aucton folks to continue their game.
When "Live-Auctions" cease in July/August, alot of bidders with money will move
to the sites of the major auctioneers. That could have a slight depressing effect
on card prices realized in many EBAY auctions. (MANY live auction players buy
other stuff while they are on EBAY. They will now have fewer reasons to visit EBAY.)
Commodity items are just never going to be the auction profit-centers they were
in the day. BIN is just too easy and fast. >>
The "Live auctions" were a very small part of EBAY's business...I would only see a few of those a month for cards..., and you had to register to bid on those...probably just a real pain for everyone, buyers, sellers, ebay...the loss of those will have very little impact.
I think the majority of ebay as it is now, will remain very much like it is (with their typical annoying changes), but with just branching out ADDING more "retail type" sales. If they do it right, i could see it being good business for them...it's always about money....I am sure no individual sellers like the changes that have already been made and continue to be made, but I also believe that it will continue to remain their best avenue.
saucywombat@hotmail.com
I think the majority of ebay as it is now, will remain very much like it is (with their typical annoying changes), but with just branching out ADDING more "retail type" sales. If they do it right, i could see it being good business for them...it's always about money....I am sure no individual sellers like the changes that have already been made and continue to be made, but I also believe that it will continue to remain their best avenue. "
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The Live Auction issue is just a matter of the loss of that "very small" audience
that came for the LAs. They did buy a bit of other stuff while they were there.
Now, whatever their contribution was will be lost; that was my point.
EBAY should continue to be our collective "best avenue" for a very long time.
But, it will never return to its former look/feel.
It's important to remembr that JD was the moving force behind Express AND Shop;
both losers. He wanted to build a mini-AMZN. NOW, he says those failures were
due to "scale." In other words, the only way he sees to beat AMZN is to get HUGE.
(Small "auctioneers" have little role to play in that scheme.)
If the Italy tests work out, we should see EBAY as a GIANT mall with anchor stores
like Sears/Nordstroms/Macy's/Buy/etc, and the rest of us will be the little stores that have
the privilege of locating in the same mall. That has been my biz-model in the real
world all of my life; I am certainly not opposed to doing it on EBAY.
In the past, little guys with no money could become players if they worked hard and
provided excellent CS. That opportunity is now gone. The new EBAY game takes money
to play/win. That's fine for many folks, not fine for some others.
I do agree, it's definetely not as good for the small sellers as it once was, although both as a seller and a buyer, I do like the BIN/BO option (it is an option).
Auctions will always survive, because there will always be people who want to get rid of stuff (be it sports cards or anything else) at any price.
However, I people who are not desperate to sell will become more and more willing to use BIN to ensure that they get the price they want.
I'm a perfect example of someone who has used both formats. There are some cards that I use auctions for because I just want to get rid of them, but there are also items that I've got a fair amount of money in that I would only sell using BIN to make sure I sell the item above cost.
<< <i>As far as sniping goes, it's my preferred method and I do it manually. For someone like me without loads of disposable income, getting into bidding wars makes no sense which is what happens by putting high bids in early. Other bidders can come in and chisel away until they find your high bid. I'm a collector and if it works out an investor. The cheaper the final win price the better !!! >>
Nothing I bid on is rare (51 Bowmans, 56 Topps, assorted HOFers and Cincy Reds), so I don't need to sneak in on something. I type my price and check later. I win about 30% of the time, the other 70% I believe someone overpayed. In most cases I am the loser by the next bid increment, I usually have my target inside of 3 weeks for my price or less. I track all the graded stuff through VCP and have seen the same card I got sniped on sell for less within weeks.
I've always said that it would be very easy to compete with Ebay if you had the money/ability to advertise the heck out of yourself. Amazon obviously does, for one example, and they're kicking the sh*t out of Ebay now.
It's like a hot dog seller who sells the BEST hot dogs. Everyone clamors to go there. Without question, he has no equal. But after years of happy customers, hamburgers become the rage. Mr. Hot Dog guy tries to sell burgers, too, but his aren't anything special. He becomes a part of the mix just like every other burger seller. Nothing special. Six of one, or half a dozen of the other.
I agree with the "extend the auction theory". If someone gets pissed that they got outbid late at night, they should have set a higher proxy bid. Again it will boost the dollar value of sales and pretty much render extinct the snipe services
cant find them....
i think this is a joke and i think the demise of EBAY is premature....
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Unless you have an AMZN "store," you can only list in the indexed cats.
They got rid of the "collectibles" cat in 2006.
/s/ JackWESQ
<< <i>Simple question. Out of one hundred (100) items that you may purchase on ebay, how many, if any, are via the Buy It Now option? For me, a couple of years ago, I would estimate about five (5) to ten (10) out of one hundred (100). Now? I can guarantee the answer is zero (0).
/s/ JackWESQ >>
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All well and good.
But, EBAY is clearly not interested in using the habits of collectible sellers/buyers
to chart its future. That is what JD's "disruptive innovation" theory says.
EBAY was started so Pierre's chickie could sell her Pez collection. JD is
now firmly out of the Pez biznez.
Folks who buy commodity items - the stuff AMZN sells - are not even a
little interested in "bidding." They want to BUY IT NOW.
When WMT hits the venue with 100M listings, the future will be more crystal clear.
BIN's for sportscards are generally well above their average auction value; I haven't found that to be the case with other items. I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that most ebay card stores are stocked with cards bought off ebay, so a sizeable markup is necessary for a decent profit once ebay/paypal fees are factored in. There are some ebay card stores that have "fresh" inventory, but most of the time I can look up some of their cards on vintagecardprices.com and see what they paid for them.
what the new search-screeen might look like. It is in a PDF file
on GS, but I pulled it off of the EBAY boards.
When commodity items are no longer auctioned, this format could be used on
the collectible portal that will likely house our stuff.
<< <i>If they want to combine auctions and fixed priced listings, why not allow BIN's to remain in place after the first bid without paying for a reserve? >>
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They have repeatedly rejected that idea. They like the rip on on the reserve.
They simply do NOT want auctions for commodity items. That does not mean
they want to x-out auctions for collectibles; it does mean that they are not
even thinking about collectibles at this time.
EBAY has recognized that they can deliver eyeballs. They are essentially an
advertising medium. ALOT more eyes are buying commodities online than
are buying collectibles. (No offense to us, BUT most folks are not remotely
interested in collectibles.)
The fact that WE built EBAY, does not mean that it belongs to us. It belongs
to others, who have no interest in the past; rightfully so, they only care
about money.
Collectible sellers/buyers are about to become collateral damage in "disruptive innovation."
EDIT: In excess of 40% of FVFs/LFs come from BIN. That will be over 50% by the end of 2008.
Auction revs are going the opposite direction. OOAK merch is no longer what EBAY wants to
be famous for. They want to be AMZN/WMT. Simple as that.
<< <i>Simple question. Out of one hundred (100) items that you may purchase on ebay, how many, if any, are via the Buy It Now option? For me, a couple of years ago, I would estimate about five (5) to ten (10) out of one hundred (100). Now? I can guarantee the answer is zero (0).
/s/ JackWESQ >>
i agree 100%
Funny
Most BIN listings are right around book price, sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower. But you almost never find a bargain using BIN, which is why auctions are still popular from the buyer's perspective.