Another 0.5 topic, How do you value them for trading with dealers?
Morgoth
Posts: 3,950 ✭✭✭
One of the things me and my dad do whenever we go to bigger shows is either trade or sell to dealers. With Chicago Sun Times and the National coming up, two shows we normally go to, we probably will have a few 0.5's in the collection so how do we place a value on them?
Do you think SMR will have pricing by then? I bet dealers are hoping SMR won't have pricing for a long time as they can give you the screws in a lot more ways. I can hear them now, "Yeah but 0.5s don't bring alot more than straight grades" or most likely the classic "Yeah but your's is overgraded and not a true 8.5" and the now "Your card was graded after the flip change so I it won't bump so I can only give you X%".
I know there have been multiple posts on letting the market sort out but come July we have to have some idea on how to value these suckers. Now I know the good dealers will be ok but unfortunately sometimes you have to deal with not so nice dealers if you want a particular card so I just would like to be prepared for the fight.
How about off the hip 30% more than a straight grade? I think no dealer will go for halfway between a PSA 8 and 9 price especially when there might be 2K of difference betwen the two grades.
Do you think SMR will have pricing by then? I bet dealers are hoping SMR won't have pricing for a long time as they can give you the screws in a lot more ways. I can hear them now, "Yeah but 0.5s don't bring alot more than straight grades" or most likely the classic "Yeah but your's is overgraded and not a true 8.5" and the now "Your card was graded after the flip change so I it won't bump so I can only give you X%".
I know there have been multiple posts on letting the market sort out but come July we have to have some idea on how to value these suckers. Now I know the good dealers will be ok but unfortunately sometimes you have to deal with not so nice dealers if you want a particular card so I just would like to be prepared for the fight.
How about off the hip 30% more than a straight grade? I think no dealer will go for halfway between a PSA 8 and 9 price especially when there might be 2K of difference betwen the two grades.
Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
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Example:
Card sells for $100 in PSA 8, $1000 in PSA 9...Price difference $900...1/3 or 33% of that $900 is $300..Add $300 to the original PSA 8 price and the card value would be $400.
PSA 8- $100
PSA 8.5- $400
PSA 9- $1000
Or using the same formula:
PSA 8- $500
PSA 8.5-$2000
PSA 9- $5000
PSA 8- $25
PSA 8.5-$50
PSA 9- $100
You get the idea..Pretty basic, but every card is going to be different and the POP in PSA 9/10 will make a big difference.
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
How about off the hip 30% more than a straight grade? I think no dealer will go for halfway between a PSA 8 and 9 price especially when there might be 2K of difference betwen the two grades.
he will when selling.
Steve
Just me i guess.
Lee
Jason, you math works out ok at the lower pricing level but I don't think the 500 to 5000 example will work, I can't imagine someone paying 1500 more for just a 1/2 point difference. Maybe there needs to be a algorithim that takes into acount a sliding scale the more the cards are worth or the greater the money disparity between the two grades.
Again, population report will drive some sales more than others but most 50's thru 70's cards have pop reports that are pretty flat (enough in every grade except maybe 10 to satisfy most demand) and since that is what I collect the most I don't think we will see a common star like a 61 Clemente 8.5 selling for 500+ while a 9 brings 1000.
<< <i>
Jason, you math works out ok at the lower pricing level but I don't think the 500 to 5000 example will work, I can't imagine someone paying 1500 more for just a 1/2 point difference.
>>
For Football HOF RCs, where the POP in PSA 9 is very low or none at all, some can and will and have....lol
They won't pay $1500 more for a half point, but will pay $4500 more for a full point? Not sure I understand that line of thinking...
If a PSA 9 sells for $5,000 and is a POP 1 or 2, and the PSA 8 sells for $500 as a pop 25 or 30..Why would a nicely centered 8.5 POP 1 or 2 sell for LESS than $1700-$2000?
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
The .5 could translate very nicely if the demand for the card was high in the first place.
No so much if no one cared much to begin with.
Loves me some shiny!
Low pops are not really what I am talking about, I am talking about normal star cards that have pretty flat pop reports.
Jason I would say my logic is this, any card over 1K is kinda in different territory with collectors based on my experience. You cross into major money players I believe at that level. There might be some middle level players that would pay 1500 for an 8.5 but not many and I believe most high end guys still want their 9's. 1500 is too much for most mid level guys and because if an 8 brings 500 (that extra grand can fill more holes which helps the GPA more than a 0.5 bump) there is too much disparity still. I can see that 8.5 pushing 800 to 1K but to bring 1500 I would think someone collecting 9's would have to jump in to buy it just to have it until he can get his 9 then flip it.
<< <i>There is no sense in trying to apply an algorithm here.
The .5 could translate very nicely if the demand for the card was high in the first place.
No so much if no one cared much to begin with. >>
Agreed...This is all guestimation until we get a soldi 6-12 months of .5 prices in the database...
My estimated values were just that. Top end values, not what dealer trade value would be. For me, anytime I'm doing a deal, I want to know the market value and then adjust up or down based on the eye appeal of the card and also based on how badly I want the other card. Every single card and every single dealer is going to be different.
You definitely aren't going to be able to use SMR, as you can't/shouldn't be using SMR to begin with...Anytime i am dealing with someone on buying or selling and they quote SMR price I walk away...They are ignorant..lol
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
<< <i>SMR is used widely by dealers for buying, not at all for selling. Only really common cards or post 69 cards will they use it. >>
I guess that explains why they never use it with me...lol
I don't own a single "common"...I've never had a reputable dealer throw an SMR price towards me for any post 1969 rookies either...Most who deal with football cards are pretty smart guys and understand that prices in the SMR have rarely changed over the past 3-4 years...
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I think Ron touched on this subject before where dealers offer you like 80% SMR and have everything priced at 150% and the weasle has that 1 card I need for my set oh, well it's just money right?
I do think it's a fun discussion to see what the market shapes up to with these changes as right now it looks like there are some good deals on ebay with the 0.5s.
1964 Aaron 8.5
I would expect most dealers to offer about the same as they would for the same half grade card in a SGC holder.
(we are in a VCP era where SMR can be next to worthless in some areas)