Interesting Conversation Re: Ebay Changes

SDavid · February 18, 2008 2:48AM

I know it's been beaten to death (that's what the back button is for), but here is a conversation between Jeetil Patel, analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities & Steve
Grossberg, President of the IMA (Internet Merchants Association). I got it off their google stock page. I didn't read all of it, but I thought they made some good points in the parts I skimmed through.

transcript

envoy98 · February 18, 2008 2:52AM

LOL

"A third will see an increase, a third will see a decrease and the balance, about 24%, will be revenue neutral"

I don't think I trust his math with statements like that.

SDavid · February 18, 2008 3:01AM

I don't think he was talking about sellers in general when he said that. They go on to say that sellers with high sell through rates and high volume sellers who weren't using gallery pictures will see large increases.

envoy98 · February 18, 2008 3:18AM

"sellers that give free shipping have a DSR of only 4.7" So they wouldn't qualify for the 4.8 (15% carrot) either. Absolutely laughable.

And could Jeetil Patel say "you know" or "I guess" any more? Is it possible?

Hard to read this thing, but it is interesting. I like the idea of chaning shipping + Handling DSR to "would you buy from this seller again".

On to page 17.

Jeetil Patel: "And, you know, the same idea I think speak volumes to, you know, a particular seller and the quality of that particular seller, you know, and the customer service"

"I think Steve, you had mentioned something on the order of 6% and I guess I wanted to elaborate on that particular. I guess can you describe, you know, what is, what do you thinkt he NPB rate runs at today? And Iguess where, you know what can you do to improve it?"

SDavid · February 18, 2008 3:51AM

Yeah, it reminded me of post game interviews except the transcriber didn't edit all the extra verbage like journalists often do. At least they didn't transcribe the parts where they said, "Uhhhhhhh........."

storm888 · February 18, 2008 3:58AM

Reprinted from another thread:

EBAY is in a pickle. To beat analysts estimates every 90 days, they have to
generate every extra penny they can. Soon, they will meet substantial
resistance to the required fee hikes, and the kite will crash. BUT, it gets
worse. EBAY has historically been able to "guide higher:" this has provided
PPS support. NOW, future quarters either look bad or they are invisible.
This puts even more pressure on the need to get more pennies.

EBAY trades like a growth stock with a PE of 110. It is not really even a
value-stock. Witch-Meg told us 3-years ago that EBAY was now a "mature
company" and would need to look for new ways to grow. WELL, there
is NO way to grow. All they can do is keep gouging their customers until
the contradictions become clear and the thing crashes to earth.

You can get rich shorting the pig during the next 48-months.

envoy98 · February 18, 2008 4:14AM

<< <i>Yeah, it reminded me of post game interviews except the transcriber didn't edit all the extra verbage like journalists often do. At least they didn't transcribe the parts where they said, "Uhhhhhhh........." >>

lol. I was thinking the exact same thing. Although, I'm wondering if some of the "--" were the "Uhh's"

I read all 39 pages. Kind of interesting, but Jeetil added nothing of value. He said yes a lot though.

jskirwin · February 18, 2008 8:32AM

Well I read the whole thing. There were some pretty good comments in there. One that stands out was about the removal of buyer feedback. According to one of the commenters, the highest customer satisfaction ranking in b&m retailing is 80% - by Kohls. By removing this feedback, consensus is that seller's ratings will drift down to that level - which would shock the Ebay community. Another was the growing prominence of Amazon. While I don't sell cards there, I do sell CDs and books.

mtcards · February 18, 2008 8:33AM

I think all us US Americans should give maps to The Iraq, such as, therefore

TheVon · February 18, 2008 9:13AM

<< <i>Reprinted from another thread:

EBAY is in a pickle. To beat analysts estimates every 90 days, they have to
generate every extra penny they can. Soon, they will meet substantial
resistance to the required fee hikes, and the kite will crash. BUT, it gets
worse. EBAY has historically been able to "guide higher:" this has provided
PPS support. NOW, future quarters either look bad or they are invisible.
This puts even more pressure on the need to get more pennies.

EBAY trades like a growth stock with a PE of 110. It is not really even a
value-stock. Witch-Meg told us 3-years ago that EBAY was now a "mature
company" and would need to look for new ways to grow. WELL, there
is NO way to grow. All they can do is keep gouging their customers until
the contradictions become clear and the thing crashes to earth.

You can get rich shorting the pig during the next 48-months. >>

I'm no MBA, but it seems to me that eBay's best option would be to start a stock repurchase program or start acquiring other businesses to drive PPS instead of trying to squeeze water from rocks or whatever that saying is.

storm888 · February 18, 2008 9:48AM

"I'm no MBA, but it seems to me that eBay's best option would be to start a stock
repurchase program or start acquiring other businesses to drive PPS instead of trying
to squeeze water from rocks or whatever that saying is. "

///////////////////////////////

The have a repurchase in place. It did nothing for the PPS
except immediately after the announcement.

They have squandered BILLIONS buying other outfits. The
ONLY standout has been PayPal.

They hire night-school/correspondence-school MBA candidates.
The whole place is a sea of incompetence. Folks who doubt that
should visit the campus and see what kind of nitwits they have
hired to run the show.

ALL of the top guys are as "articulate" as JP and Bill Cobb.

TheVon · February 18, 2008 12:04PM

Maybe they should sell themselves to Microsoft then? I'm half kidding, but I seriously think that they could do some cool things if they teamed up with Yahoo and then eventually sold to MSFT?

Interesting Conversation Re: Ebay Changes

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