Most accurate values
ACdarko
Posts: 52
I've noticed on some cards the price variances are all over the place (ex. Joe Montana RC). What is the best way to find the true value of cards nowadays? Is it SMR / VPC(not sure I got that right) or Ebay achieved prices? I've had my vintage cards since I was 12 years old (they were given to me by my Dad) and I'm now about to turn 42. I've always held them as valued possessions and now that I plan on selling some of them I honestly want to get top dollar for them but don't want to be "that guy" that wants the moon for everything he has...if that makes any sense.
Oh and I talking about early 50's cards not Joe Montana - that was just an example. Thanks in advance...this is just one of those many stupid newbie questions I have that I warned you guys about : ) -Ac
Oh and I talking about early 50's cards not Joe Montana - that was just an example. Thanks in advance...this is just one of those many stupid newbie questions I have that I warned you guys about : ) -Ac
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Comments
If you only need a couple of prices, I have found fellow board members here to be more than generous in helping out. If your only looking for generic cards that sell quite often like the Joe Montana rookie you made as an example, or a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie or some common card like that, the recent Ebay completed listings should give you a great idea of the average selling price of those type of cards.
The price of any given card has a fairly wide range. Big-time sellers like Gar Miller, Kit Young, etc will get book value on their sales. They use the SCD Price Guide as their reference. Other smaller sellers / traders will typically get some percentage less than book value. If you look at any given card on eBay, the price range can vary 50% or more for the exact same grade, depending on several factors (the reputation of the seller, the way the ad is presented, or even the day of the week or time of day that the auction concludes). However, in general, the range that vintage cards sell within is typically stable throughout the course of a calendar year, unless a significant event occurs (player's election to the HOF, player being caught up in a scandal that damages image, etc. --- one good thing is that you don't have to worry about a vintage player's name appearing in the Mitchell report!). As a result, I personally don't think that it is necessary to chase the latest values listed for vintage cards on a monthly basis. Companies that issue such monthly reports have to sell magazines and online service memberships, so these monthly price guides will continue to be marketed. If they suggest a significant change in card value from month to month without there being a good reason for it, I wouldn't put much stock in such quotes.
For my money, I'll continue to buy the SCD annual price guide for $40 and use that for the next 12 months to gauge the value of vintage cards. That's my opinion. Others are welcomed, and I would like to hear them.
Seeking primarily PSA graded pre-war "type" cards
My PSA Registry Sets
34 Goudey, 75 Topps Mini, Hall of Fame Complete Set, 1985 Topps Tiffany, Hall of Fame Players Complete Set
<< <i>VCP for vintage. Worth every penny. >>
I agree.
How can u expect a ANNUAL guide to be even remotely close to reality?
VCP is the way to go
or use Ebay completed sales info for free info
I believe the poster meant graded cards, as this is a PSA forum, but speaking of raw cards...
The annual guides are just as inaccurate as the monthly guides, or at least are on the cards I collect, as I typically don't buy this years cards and gave up chasing the hot rookie of the week years ago.
The only reason I would see in buying monthly guides is if you are a "big" dealer or trader, or if you bought a lot of cards from the last year. Otherwise buy an Annual guide, it will at least give you a little more info on the card.
As far as graded cards, modern cards seem to be all over the place so I am not sure how good a guide can help. With vintage cards VCP is definitely the way to go.
Clear Skies,
Mark
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
Example:
Reggie Jackson 1969 Topps #260 Graded PSA 6 EX-MT
One Month Sales History:
Date of Sale Sale Price
9/15/2007 $106.51
9/20/2007 $112.39 +5.5%
9/20/2007 $ 98.63 -12.2%
9/23/2007 $ 83.00 -15.8%
10/14/2007 $137.58 +65.8%
So, what is the value of this Reggie Jackson PSA 6 rookie card? Is it the high, low, average, or last sale? A monthly service would suggest that the price of the card is actually fluctuating over the course of 30 days. In reality, the price is varying based upon a series of random events and is impacted by several variables. The actual value has not changed. If here during the month of December, all of the sales of this card are at the low end because everyone is spending their money on Christmas gifts instead of baseball cards, should I consider that the Reggie Jackson card has lost value because VCP tells me so? Absolutely not! By spring, the prices could sell at higher levels, simply due to seasonal influences --- not due to any inherent change in the value of the card.
Vintage baseball card values are not like stock prices, fluctuating in value on a daily basis (prospect cards are another story, because the performance of a player on the field can have a real impact in the value of his cards). Use a reputable annual price guide such as SCD and don't be fooled by services that try to convince you that you need to track the value of these cards like a stock on the NYSE. A sampling of a large enough data pool (35 or more) will reveal a normal bell-shaped curve. Statistically speaking, the prices are not changing in the short-term, they are simply varying within a normal range based upon a given standard deviation.
Sure, if you want a general ballpark price on a raw card, then an annual might work perfectly. However, if your buying high end and often quite pricey cards where a one point differential is substantial, all the information available is very important. There's enough info available for free if you spend alot of time to find, save, and sort it, but I think the $99 for a year or $10 a month(think that is the cost) is well worth the time spent, especially considering how much is being put into buying the cards themselves.
Your reference to a "series of random events" is called supply and demand; just like housing prices and corvette convertibles during the winter (northern states obviously). If there are more sellers than buyers, the price is going to drop. If there are more buyers than sellers the price will go up.
VCP is not opinionated. They state fact of the most recent actual transactions made. I'm a huge PSA fan but think that SMR is a joke as it's one company's (or person's) opinion. Factor in the Pop Report and a $16 common card in your monthly publication could be worth over $100 if there are multiple buyers seeking that card. Regarding your Reggie Jackson reference, if the three most recent supporting trades for the '69 Topps PSA 6 were: $106, $112 and $98, one would think that getting the card for $83 was a bargin. Maybe instead of waiting all night in a parking lot for your 4am door-buster to save money X-mas shopping you could have turned a near 66% ROI in three weeks on your Reggie card.
ACdarko,
To your original post, if you have the cards graded, VCP is the best way to find out what the market has been willing the pay for what you've got. If they're not graded, get them graded. Your raw cards will be worth pennies on the dollar if the buyer has to take a risk on an interpreted condition. A VCP membership is $100. I've saved myself that 10X in my first several purchases from not being "that guy" that buys high and sells low.
Happy Collecting!
Bill
Buying Mike Schmidt basic PSA 10's, rookie QBs
Using VCP I notice the last two "high" sales were very nicely centered cards while the "low" sales were not. I'll get a good idea, based on the card I'm going after, whether I need to set the snipe on the high end or the low end of the range. Using a price guide, there is no picture, no date and only one price for a PSA 6. Oh, and by the way, I would probably never complete my 1975 Topps Mini set because there is absolutely nothing in a printed price guides that would tell me that a pop 3 common is going to cost be $500 in a PSA 9, not the $26+ in the guide.
Seeking primarily PSA graded pre-war "type" cards
My PSA Registry Sets
34 Goudey, 75 Topps Mini, Hall of Fame Complete Set, 1985 Topps Tiffany, Hall of Fame Players Complete Set
That said if you buy and sell graded cards VCP is a huge asset.
and if the card is justy plain ugly(for the grade), I set a snipe MUCH lower than the lowest sale. It is all about hittin 100% for me