If you think a raw card might be an 8, will you pay a "7" price for it?

RonBurgundy · October 10, 2007 4:41AM

Curious what the limits are for collectors here. Obviously we all like to pay as little as possible, but what are the upper limits? If you think a raw vintage card might be an 8, will you pay full Beckett or SMR in 7 for it? (or pay an 8 price if you think it might 9, etc.)

Personally, I go back and forth and it depends on the card.

Love to hear what y'all think.

Ron

BunchOBull · October 10, 2007 4:44AM

I'll typically make my larger purchases when the item is selling for 75% of typical market value or less. I have to be patient, but the cards I want show up in time. I don't flip cards, I only collect. What I do sell is specifically to purchase another hobby item. In the case of raw stuff, 50% is generally my rule. Depends on my needs.

jmbkb4 · October 10, 2007 4:48AM

It probably depends more on the seller, less on the card.

rube26105 · October 10, 2007 6:29AM

in my case, i only do 50 bowman fb, and so many raw ones i ve bought have come back trimmed, i buynothing but graded ones anymore,even crossover come back trimmed,so if its not slabbed psa and 50 bowman,i dont want it lol-as for price, it dont really matter if i need it anymore,upgrades are getting sparse on commons as of last year for some reason, not a whole lot on ebay,a few pop up every now and then,i only look 10 times a day- not so much in the hof guys theres always hi grade ones of them for sale,the commons are the tough ones,esp jim white,his card sucks to try and find, only 50 graded
i get raw ones i need autographed in the set

leadoff4 · October 10, 2007 7:00AM

Good question RonBurgundy, I think for most HOFers cards from the 50s and 60s it has to be a bigger name such as Mantle, Aaron, Mays, Clemente, Williams or Koufax to pay Beckett price thinking you're getting an 8. With lesser stars it's not going to be too profitable, if at all to pay SMR 7 or Beckett guessing the card is an 8. Just my thoughts, but a great question and is something I think about all the time at shows.

onlyanumber · October 10, 2007 7:05AM

I will do it, have done it and only been hosed once or twice. There's one seller out there that I will without a doubt buy from when he says near mint-mint. I've paid 6 and 7 prices and all cards submitted have come back 9's, save the lone 8, which was an Aaron.

smtjoy · October 10, 2007 7:11AM

I purchased a bunch of raw 1968-1973 Clementes on ebay that I felt would grade an 8. I stayed between the 6-7 price from vcp. The variance was more based on the scan of the card and how stong it looked. I didnt do too well on their grades. That said I have had great luck on raw clemente inserts and regional issues with both cost and grades.

gemint · October 10, 2007 7:24AM

I don't use Beckett at all. For SMR, I may pay SMR prices for tough cards. In fact, I'd pay PSA 8 SMR prices for raw if they are tough commons or stars. Who wouldn't pay $70 for a NM-MT 1961 Joe Gibbon or $20 for a NM-MT 1969 Tom Satriano? I usually like to inspect the card in person vs over the internet though when buying raw. I've had some successes buying raw on eBay but it's educated gambling.

Bosox1976 · October 10, 2007 9:48AM

I'd pay 7 prices for cards that seem like 8's for 1964 and earlier. 1966 forward I'd take on a card by card basis.

leadoff4 · October 10, 2007 10:13AM

Onlyanumber, is that a seller on eBay I assume?

onlyanumber · October 10, 2007 10:17AM

Yes. Never had a problem with him. billbauskins

leadoff4 · October 10, 2007 10:25AM

Is that his username on eBay? billbauskins

jskirwin · October 10, 2007 11:10AM

Since I do 60s-70s raw buys on eBay, I don't expect anything higher than PSA 6. So I don't pay anything higher than SMR PSA 6.

I pass up a lot of stuff, but then again, I don't get hosed either.

onlyanumber · October 10, 2007 11:22AM

<< <i>Is that his username on eBay? billbauskins >>

yep. My last batch from him was a 73 Aaron for $31, a 73 and 74 Killebrew for $5 and a group of 8 other 74's (Frank Robby, Al Kaline, Lou Brock, Catfish Hunter and a few others) for $14. The Aaron came back an 8, the 73 Killebrew, and all the 74's came back 9's, save the 74 Killebrew which I haven't submitted yet. When he has cards, he's dead on on grading and he normally has a decent selection.

paleocards · October 11, 2007 5:36AM

Hi Ron,

Good question and my short answer is "yes," I'm happy to pay up to Beckett hi-book for a card that I think is a strong 7 with a chance at an 8. Here's some data from my first submission that I thought would be relevant to this thread:

PSA Order Status for Submission # 4319219

LINE # CERT # CARD CARD CO. CARD # CARD NAME VARIETY GRADE
1 12305370 1955 TOPPS 47 HANK AARON N/A 7 (Paid $359.63=89.9% of Beckett hi-book [$400] 12/28/2004, SMR=$350; bought raw from my favorite shop)
2 12305371 1957 TOPPS 20 HANK AARON N/A 7 (Paid $300=100% of Beckett hi-book [$300] 7/5/2005, SMR=$250; bought raw from my favorite shop)
3 12305372 1958 TOPPS 487 MICKEY MANTLE ALL STAR 5 (Paid $115=65.7% of Beckett hi-book [$175] 7/23/2004, SMR=$75; bought raw at the Cleveland Nat'l)
4 12305373 1961 TOPPS 150 WILLIE MAYS N/A 8 (Paid $56.55=56.6% of Beckett hi-book [$100] 6/11/2000, SMR=$240; bought raw off eBay)
5 12305374 1961 TOPPS 300 MICKEY MANTLE N/A 7 (Paid $350=87.5% of Beckett hi-book [$400] 12/21/2002, SMR=$415; bought raw from my favorite shop)
6 12305375 1961 TOPPS 577 HANK AARON ALL STAR 9 (Paid $140=93.3% of Beckett hi-book [$150] 8/14/2004, SMR=$800; bought raw from my favorite shop)
7 12305376 1962 TOPPS 18 MANAGERS' DREAM M.MANTLE/W.MAYS 8 (Paid $157.34=89.9% of Beckett hi-book [$175] 12/28/2004, SMR=$550; bought raw from my favorite shop)
8 12305377 1963 TOPPS 540 BOB CLEMENTE N/A 8 (Paid $208.33=83.3% of Beckett hi-book [$250] 7/23/2004, SMR=$375; bought raw at the Cleveland Nat'l)
9 12305378 1965 TOPPS 300 SANDY KOUFAX N/A 8 (Paid $100=100% of Beckett hi-book [$100] 7/5/2005, SMR=$300; bought raw from my favorite shop)
10 12305379 1966 TOPPS 1 WILLIE MAYS N/A 7 (Paid $100=66.7% of Beckett hi-book [$150] 12/27/2001, SMR=$225; bought raw from my favorite shop)
11 12305380 1966 TOPPS 50 MICKEY MANTLE N/A 8 (Paid $200=80% of Beckett hi-book [$250] 7/9/2003, SMR=$600; bought raw from my favorite shop)
12 12305381 1961 TOPPS 578 MICKEY MANTLE ALL STAR 7 (Paid $350=87.5% of Beckett hi-book [$400] 7/27/2002, SMR=$350; bought raw from my favorite shop)

Date Received: 08/05/2005
Date of Grades Posted: 08/15/2005
Date Shipped: 08/16/2005

I primarily collect Topps HOFers (from 1955-1975) in PSA 7 or better, so when cards come back 7 I am generally breaking even, 8 and 9 I'm adding significant value, 6 I've lost value and 5s lose significant value. I've now submitted 222 cards and 212 have come back slabbed. The 10 that weren't holdered included 6 factory miscuts, 1 MinSize, 2 re-colored and 1 trimmed. Of the 212 cards slabbed (overall average=7.04), here's the breakdown:
PSA 9 - 7
PSA 9Q - 1
PSA 8 - 54
PSA 8Q - 5
PSA 7 - 105
PSA 6 - 28 (5 of which I've cracked & resubmitted, all were re-graded PSA 7)
PSA 5 - 11
PSA 2 - 1 ('69 Clemente Deckle, certainly missed something big on that card!)

One thing I won't do is pay SMR 8 prices for a raw card, no matter how beautiful it may be. Dealers that demand those prices are transferring all of the risk to the buyer. However, I've developed an excellent relationship with a local dealer and although he rarely gets high-quality vintage, we recently worked out the following deal. He took a flier on a raw '59 Kaline on eBay for $25. It was truly a beautiful card, and of course I wanted it. He sold it to me for $85 ($20 over Beckett hi-book) with the understanding that if it came back PSA 7 he'd refund me $20, PSA 8 I'd keep the card and we're square, PSA 9 I'd return it to him, he'd refund my purchase price and give me a percentage of his eBay sale of the card. Luckily for me, it came back an 8. Here it is in it's slabbed glory:

leadoff4 · October 11, 2007 7:06AM

Great info. paleo, I wish I had kept track off all cards I've submitted over the last 10 years but more importantly I wish I could find some decent "raw" cards on eBay. I'm either always skeptical or kind find anything that looks good. I'm scared of the Great_Lakes_Auction_House(crab-chucks is id as a buyer) that cracks out graded cards and resells them as high grade raw cards. I love this type of info. though and also wish I had a local shop period. I'm an hour north of Orlando, Fl and Ocala(30 min. away) is the closest town that has a shop.

RonBurgundy · October 11, 2007 7:19AM

Paleo -

Great info. and exactly the kind of analysis I hoped someone would post!

Ron

markj111 · October 11, 2007 7:32AM

My thought is that I want to break even if it comes back a seven. I have made a few big scores, but I have missed on some as well.

Biggest coup was getting straight 8s on 59 Baseball-Rice, Triandos, McLish, Mays, Banks, and Infield Power-plus a 9 on a 1 of 1 1965 common (Frank Lary). I did not have $150 invested in the lot.

I also have my share of 6s, trimmed, and recolored cards (particularly in 71).

If you think a raw card might be an 8, will you pay a &quot;7&quot; price for it?

Comments

If you think a raw card might be an 8, will you pay a "7" price for it?