Baseball HOF 2008 eligibles.

RedHeart54 · August 7, 2007 1:20AM

There are some good names on this list. I'm thinking Goose and possibly McGwire.

Brady Anderson
Harold Baines
Andy Benes
Bert Blyleven
Dave Concepcíon
Andre Dawson
Delino DeShields
Shawon Dunston
Chuck Finley
Darrin Fletcher
Travis Fryman
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
David Justice
Chuck Knoblauch
Darren Lewis
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Mike Morgan
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Robb Nen
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Greg Swindell
Alan Trammell
Randy Velarde
Mark Wohlers

shagrotn77 · August 7, 2007 1:28AM

My prediction:

Gossage and Rice will get in. Raines is interesting, and it wouldn't be a complete shock if he got enough support and votes to get elected, especially since he's the only first-ballot guy with any chance. McGwire is still a ways off IMO. Dawson will probably get in in 2009, and Blyleven will get in either that year or the next. Lee Smith has a decent shot, and Morris has an outside shot too.

Knopfler · August 7, 2007 1:36AM

Darrin Fletcher?

msassin · August 7, 2007 1:46AM

At least one (or both) of the Dawson/Rice pair gets in.

I personally think that Jack Morris deserves to be in more than anybody (but he has never been close yet).

Nice to see one of my favorite players, Greg Swindell on the list (back when I was 12 in '87 I sent him a card in the mail to get autographed.....he returned it along with a personal note thanking me for showing an interest in his career)

perkdog · August 7, 2007 1:51AM

What about Trammel? You guys dont think he will get in right away?

RonBurgundy · August 7, 2007 1:52AM

Gossage, Blyleven, Morris, and the Hawk all deserve induction at some point. Liars to Congress do not.

Ron

MantleMarisFordBerra · August 7, 2007 1:55AM

It wouldn't break my heart of no one was elected next year. There is no one on this list who just jumps out as Hall Of Fame.

markj111 · August 7, 2007 1:57AM

Raines deserves it-not close. That said my guess is that he will not be particularly close to election this time. I would vote also for Trammell, Gossage and Blyleven. No to Rice, Dawson, and Morris. They were really good, but Dawson and Morris were not good enough. Rice did not sustain great numbers for a long enough period. I would put Murphy ahead of those three, and I would not vote for him either. Of course my opinion counts for exactly zilch.

DavidPuddy · August 7, 2007 1:59AM

Chuck Knoblauch

I hope he makes it.
"While driving to the induction ceremony, Knoblauch drove right by Cooperstown and ended up in next town. E4, all runners move up"

DavidPuddy · August 7, 2007 2:02AM

Seriously,
I think all these guys deserve to be in.
Bert Blyleven
Dave Concepcíon
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
I hope Rice, and Goose make it in 08

CDsNuts · August 7, 2007 2:13AM

Gossage is a lock to get in next year, and Dawson and Rice are picking up voters left and right. Take out 2007 (Ripken and Gwynn were locks and they weren't gonna put anybody else in with them), and Dawson has gone from 50% to 52% to 61% in 2006. That 52% to 61% means a lot of voters convinced themselves he deserves to be there, and I expect more will follow. Rice has shown similar progress.

Raines will get a lot of first ballot votes, but probably not nearly enough (I'm thinking maybe 55%). I expect he will take the Dawson/Rice route and eventually get in.

stown · August 7, 2007 2:34AM

<< Chuck Knoblauch

I hope he makes it.
"While driving to the induction ceremony, Knoblauch drove right by Cooperstown and ended up in next town. E4, all runners move up" >>

An interesting story that I'm positive most of you don't know.

The Knoblauchs have a deep rooted history with Bellaire High School baseball here in Houston.

Ray was a head coach for years and Chuck was a stud.

His older brother, on the other hand, was caught messing around with some of the bat girls.

Don't worry, they were 18 at the time.

Edited to clarify: His brother was an assistant football and baseball coach at the time, with a gorgeous and very pregnant wife at home.

kcballboy · August 7, 2007 2:38AM

Raines is about the same level of Dawson, Rice, Murphy, Baines and Morris. To me they are all right on the cusp of hall worthiness and I could really go either way on whether they deserve election or not. Personally I think if one gets in they will all get in.

I think McGwire goes this year. I don't think the writers wanted the McGwire shadow distracting from Ripken & Gywnn's clean histories.

Blyleven should all ready be in, so there's no reason he doesn't get in this year.

mercurynut · August 7, 2007 3:09AM

This is the weakest field I have seen in years......

Bert Blyleven
Rich Gossage
Jim Rice

MeteoriteGuy · August 7, 2007 3:13AM

I will guessimate...

Rich Gossage
Jim Rice
Mark McGwire

Dawson I will predict for 2009.

Mark

artistlost · August 7, 2007 3:15AM

Why no real love for Dawson? His stats look in line. 8 gold gloves and an MVP title and rookie of the year. One of only a few plays to have 300 HRs (438) and 300 Stolen bases (315). I never understood why he isn't already in? Is it the Montreal factor?

mathew

Edited to add his career stats over 21 seasons
(G) 2627 (AB) 9927 (R)1373 (H)2774 (2B) 503 (3B)98 (HR)438 (RBI)1591 (BB)589 (SB)1509 (SB)314 (CS)109 (BA).279

markj111 · August 7, 2007 3:23AM

Dawson's career OBP is a pathetic .323. That is not good for a middle infielder, it is horrible for an outfielder.
Raines was more productive than Dawson (5.92 RC/27 outs compared to 5.44), and he played six years longer than Rice. Raines OPS was higher than Dawson's. Dawson had 400 more PAs than Raines, but made 1000 more outs.

Look at the numbers-Raines is by far the best position player among next year's class.

Munson15 · August 7, 2007 3:35AM

Goose for sure. I always wanted Donnie Baseball to get in there as well.

BobaFett72 · August 7, 2007 3:45AM

unfortunately Mattingly was crippled by injuries his last few seasons; he need 5 more good years or 2 or 3 monster ones.

i'd vote for: two very deserving HOF'ers

Bert Blyleven
Rich Gossage

Brian48 · August 7, 2007 3:58AM

This list is not very impressive, but I'd like to see Rice and Gossage finally make it in. I'm still on the fence about Blyleven.

tombo · August 7, 2007 4:03AM

I agree with Artistlost. Dawson should definitely be in there. He was one of the most consistenly dangersous NL hitters for 10 - 12 years, and was also one of the best outfielders in all of baseball until the end of his career. I think the All Star selections, gold gloves, MVP and ROY outweigh his paltry OPS. Let's not forget he had one of the coolest nicknames - HAWK

markj111 · August 7, 2007 4:23AM

Win Shares has Raines as the 40th best all time; neither Rice now Dawson made the top 100. I guarantee you that if you took two teams that were equal, except that one had Raines and the other had Dawson, the Raines' team would kick Dawson's a**.

If nine Raines playes nine Dawsons over the course of many seasons, it would not be a pennant race most years.

DavidPuddy · August 7, 2007 4:25AM

I'm a big Raines guy too.
If we are going by nicknames, Bill Madlock, and Dave Parker should be in

baseballfan · August 7, 2007 4:34AM

i think gossage and rice get in next year and maybe raines comes close but probably short on the first try

baseballfan · August 7, 2007 4:36AM

however i would vote for
Blyleven
dawson
gossage
rice
morris
raines
murphy

and anderson and baines, that's the oriole in me!!!!

Alfonz24 · August 7, 2007 4:39AM

I would vote for Raines and Smith.

I think there should be serious consideration for Tommy John. 288 career wins. Was the guinea pig of the unique surgery that now bears his name. This has not only helped save baseball careers, both careers in other sports.

markj111 · August 7, 2007 5:04AM

BTW-Gene Tenace has a higher OPS and R/C per 27 outs than does Dawson (and Tenace spent much of his career in Oakland-a tough hitters park). When is he going to the HOF?

BobaFett72 · August 7, 2007 5:27AM

"BTW-Gene Tenace has a higher OPS and R/C per 27 outs than does Dawson (and Tenace spent much of his career in Oakland-a tough hitters park). When is he going to the HOF? "

when hell freezes over. Tenace essentially played 8 full seasons, yeah he walked a lot; he had better; he was a crappy hitter

he played the equivalent of 5 full seasons in oakland, the rest of his career elsewhere, plus half his games were played away from Oakland. he put up stellar batting averages of .211, 233, 234. simply awesome! first ballot baby!

JackWESQ · August 7, 2007 10:18AM

I would love to see McGwire get in. But realistically, there no chance in hell of him getting 50%, much less 75%. I predict somewhere around 33%. But here's a thought, what if he gets inducted and decides not to attend the induction ceremony? The obvious answer is nothing, he still gets in. The show goes on. But it would be odd for someone to get elected and not attend or give a much speech.

/s/ JackWESQ

ArnyVee · August 7, 2007 10:55AM

Brady Anderson - No Chance
Harold Baines - 10% Chance
Andy Benes - No Chance
Bert Blyleven - 60% Chance probably within the next couple of years, I would think
Dave Concepcíon - 20% Chance
Andre Dawson - 60% Chance
Delino DeShields - No Chance
Shawon Dunston - No Chance
Chuck Finley - No Chance
Darrin Fletcher - No Chance
Travis Fryman - No Chance
Rich Gossage - 75% Chance
Tommy John - 10% Chance
David Justice - No Chance
Chuck Knoblauch - No Chance
Darren Lewis - No Chance
Don Mattingly - 10% Chance
Mark McGwire - 50% Chance, But I don't think it will happen for a few more years
Mike Morgan - No Chance
Jack Morris - 40% Chance, very good player
Dale Murphy - 10% Chance, but would've been a lot better chance playing in a 'big' city
Robb Nen - No Chance
Dave Parker - Had very small chance, but 'extra curricular' stuff keeps him at No Chance
Tim Raines - 60% Chance
Jim Rice - 60% Chance
Lee Smith - 40% Chance
Greg Swindell - No Chance
Alan Trammell - 20% Chance
Randy Velarde - No Chance
Mark Wohlers - No Chance

I wouldn't be surprised if any combination of two or three from the following make it......Gossage, Blyleven, Dawson, Raines & Rice.

TJMAC · August 7, 2007 11:21AM

Just to clarify, the person who said McGwire lied to Congress is wrong. He said he wasn't going talk about the past, he did not lie. Regardless of what people think of him, there is a difference.

onlyanumber · August 7, 2007 11:22AM

The Hall needs some live bodies at the induction ceremony. Two to three guys make it this year...

RedHeart54 · August 7, 2007 11:26AM

Ya know, I gotta throw a bone for Jack Morris. I think if he had played in N.Y. or L.A. there would be no question for his HOF credentials. Looking at his stats you'll see that he was one of baseball's best pitchers from 1979 to 1988. Yes, he had two mediocre years in Detroit in 1989 and 1990 (6-14 in '89-ouch!) but he rebounded to back-to-back World Series championships with Minnesota (1991, 18-12) and Toronto (1992, 21-6). Those rings complemented his '84 ring with Detroit and looking at the list of eligible players for 2008 there aren't too many there with three World Series championships.

Mikesc98 · August 7, 2007 11:50AM

What does everyone think about the best Rice, Dawson, Gossage, Raines cards to buy? Anything special besides the rookie cards--'75 Topps Rice, '77 Topps Dawson, '73 Topps Gossage, '81 Topps/Fleer/Donruss Raines?

RedHeart54 · August 7, 2007 12:05PM

<< What does everyone think about the best Rice, Dawson, Gossage, Raines cards to buy? Anything special besides the rookie cards--'75 Topps Rice, '77 Topps Dawson, '73 Topps Gossage, '81 Topps/Fleer/Donruss Raines? >>

It would probably depend on the population reports for a given card in a given grade from a given year.

stown · August 7, 2007 12:10PM

<< Just to clarify, the person who said McGwire lied to Congress is wrong. He said he wasn't going talk about the past, he did not lie. Regardless of what people think of him, there is a difference. >>

I scrolled through the thread and never saw a post saying that.

grote15 · August 7, 2007 1:19PM

I'd vote for Blyleven and Raines, maybe Goose, the most deserving on that list, IMO.

As for the actual voting, my guess is that Rice and Dawson and/or Gossage get in, Raines will be close, too. Outside of Henderson, Raines was the best all around player in the 1980s, IMO.

Bosox1976 · August 7, 2007 1:26PM

Arny's list seems dead-on.

metalmike · August 7, 2007 1:33PM

I think Dave C has an outside chance- I think that Ozzie and Dave were the prototype SS before SS became a power position? Larkin deserves a shot also.

MikeyLikesIt · August 7, 2007 2:25PM

Andy Benes and Darren Lewis are locks if I ever saw one.

GDM67 · August 7, 2007 4:21PM

<< Gossage is a lock to get in next year, and Dawson and Rice are picking up voters left and right. Take out 2007 (Ripken and Gwynn were locks and they weren't gonna put anybody else in with them), and Dawson has gone from 50% to 52% to 61% in 2006. That 52% to 61% means a lot of voters convinced themselves he deserves to be there, and I expect more will follow. Rice has shown similar progress. >>

Good.

<< Raines will get a lot of first ballot votes, but probably not nearly enough (I'm thinking maybe 55%). I expect he will take the Dawson/Rice route and eventually get in. >>

Also good.

I will always despise Morris, but his continued exclusion is an embarrassment (so are Blyleven, John and Jim Kaat.)

McGwire is going to get the proverbial cold shoulder for some considerable time. At least a decade.

Not sure if he should, but that's how it's shaping up.

stitzen · August 7, 2007 4:50PM

Nobody overwhelming, definitely the anti-2007 class, that's for sure.

I'd like to see Baines get in, be the first of the full-time DHers get their due, though I am sure like Ray Guy in the football HoF, specialists will continue to be left out.

Andre Dawson may get a shot, since the overall field is so weak, but I think his best chances are long gone.

Rich Gossage is beyond due, should have been in long ago.

I have to wonder if the support that was shown to Bonds outside of just SF will soften the resistance to McGwire getting in, and I think he gets much better support.

Tim Raines should be in, but I think he's in the Dawson boat.

Jim Rice's personality (or lack thereof) is definitely a sticking point for him.

Lee Smith, the previous career saves holder, should get the nod.

If I'm voting, the four I vote in are: Gossage, McGwire, Rice, and Smith.

f2tornado · August 7, 2007 9:15PM

<< This list is not very impressive, but I'd like to see Rice and Gossage finally make it in. I'm still on the fence about Blyleven. >>

Get off that Blyleven fence. He should be in. Bert Blyleven ranks 5th in career strikeouts, 8th in shutouts, and 17th in wins for pitchers since 1900. There are eight or nine pitchers in the last 100 years who are top 20 material in those categories. He has more K's than Tom Seaver and a few less than Steve Carlton. Had Bert actually had some decent run support he likely would easily have eclipsed the 300 win threshold and been in some time ago. The guy was overlooked for Cy Young awards during his prime and is now overlooked by Hall voters. One must wonder why a pitcher that good would get swaped by so many teams... Twins, Rangers, Pirates, Indians, Twins, Angels. Some guy named Nolan Ryan also played for several teams. Bert to HOF voters, "Circle me".

Houston · August 8, 2007 12:26AM

It hurts me that Murphy gets no love. While 399 dingers isnt mindboggling, I conder him the second most feared slugger of the 80's in the National League, leading the NL in homers several times. The ONLY person more feared was Mike Schmidt. Murphy won back to back MVP's for christ sake. As an ambassador to the game he is someone to be proud of.

I always thought that if you were top 1 or 2 in your DECADE you should make the Hall. Not to offend anyone, but if Puckett made it... The Murph deserves it too.

My 2 cents

Knopfler · August 8, 2007 12:32AM

<< 

<< Chuck Knoblauch

I hope he makes it.
"While driving to the induction ceremony, Knoblauch drove right by Cooperstown and ended up in next town. E4, all runners move up" >>

An interesting story that I'm positive most of you don't know.

The Knoblauchs have a deep rooted history with Bellaire High School baseball here in Houston.

Ray was a head coach for years and Chuck was a stud.
q]

Did Ray go to Bellaire? I think my Dad mentioned that he went to high school with Chuck's father at Bellaire.

markj111 · August 8, 2007 3:31AM

From Neyer:

Tim Raines is absurdly qualified for the Hall of Fame. He was good enough to play in the majors when he was 21, and when he was 41, and he played long enough to collect 2,605 hits. He stole 808 bases and was caught stealing only 146 times. Generally, we (fans, writers, Martians) overestimate the impact of the running game, but when you steal that many bases with that kind of success rate, you're adding an impressively large number of runs to the ledger. Raines routinely posted on-base percentages among the best in the National League, and during the 1980s he ranked -- with Mike Schmidt and Dale Murphy -- among the three best players in the league.

rube26105 · August 8, 2007 4:06AM

i dunno about that list, might be one of those no 75% ones, so nobody gets in

markj111 · August 8, 2007 6:56AM

I always thought that if you were top 1 or 2 in your DECADE you should make the Hall. Not to offend anyone, but if Puckett made it... The Murph deserves it too.

The argument is bogus. Murphy deserves it, or not, depending on his own merits. Just because KP slid in does not mean Murphy should. If KP is in, then John Doe should be in. Where is the logic? You made absolutely no argument comparing the two. Also, if their careers were identical, and KP did not deserve it, then neither does Murphy.

Houston · August 8, 2007 7:54AM

I wasnt comparing Murph to Puckett, I was comparing the criteria used. Puckett was a great player, no doubt, but there was heck of lot sentimental bs that went into him making it so soon.

Tabe · August 8, 2007 8:36AM

Here's the problem with Murph - and, believe me, I loved the guy, watching him 150 times a year on TBS - he had a good 6-year run. From 1982 to 1987, he was great, no question about it. But he played 14 full seasons and parts of 4 others. What kind of player was he in those other 12 years? Well, he was a good player in 1980. The rest of those years? He was below average. Sorry, that's just a fact. A guy who hits .226 with 24 HR and 77 RBI is a below-average player. So, do you put a guy in who had a great - but not all-time great - run for 6 years and was below-average or worse for more than a decade? I'm with the voters on this - no.

Tabe

Baseball HOF 2008 eligibles.

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