The odds of PSA 9s becoming PSA 10s???

yankeeno7 · July 21, 2007 12:06AM

Most times I cant tell the difference between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10. Sure there are some cards you can tell....so it brings me to this hypothetical question.

Say I go out and buy 50 cards in PSA 9. I will stick to modern shiney stuff like bowman chrome, topps chrome, topps finest, you get the picture. Now crack them all and resubmit them (after close inspection of ones you feel have a shot at 10s). How many 10s do you think you will get back?

0? 5? 10? 20? more?????

Discuss.

cohocorp · July 21, 2007 12:09AM

dont know, but it would be an interesting experiment.

MuckyMutt · July 21, 2007 12:17AM

50 PSA 9's resubmitted = 8-10 PSA 10's, 8-10 PSA 8's, 1 PSA 7, and the rest come back as 9's.

CDsNuts · July 21, 2007 12:20AM

You're better off trying to get 9's from 8's than 10's from 9's. The thing about 9's is that they usually have one fatal flaw that keep them from being a 10, whether it be slight off-centering, a touched corner, what have you. Usually these minor flaws stand out on an otherwise perfect card.

You have a much better shot with modern stuff like you said, but I really don't think new PSA 10's carry all that much of a premium compared to vintage. For example, take something like a 1996 Finest Kobe Bryant. In PSA 9 it sells for about $20 and in PSA 10 it sells for about $50. That means you can resubmit it up to 4 times for it to be a 10 and still remain profitable, but even then you're really not making much money and your money's being tied up for several months. You're better off with something like a 1977 Andre Dawson PSA 8, which sells for $20. A PSA 9 can pull $80-$200, so your profit margin is much higher.

ldferg · July 21, 2007 12:37AM

if you look at a card long enough, you can talk yourself out of it being a 10.

cohocorp · July 21, 2007 12:38AM

lee has a great point.

lawnmowerman · July 21, 2007 12:53AM

I recently resub'd a bunch of 9's and did very well. The type of 9 to look for to resub would be the ones with minor surface flaws (faint scratches) or maybe one slightly touched corner on the reverse. To some graders these two flaws dont bother them too much.

Anything visable on the front, I wont even bother.

SDavid · July 21, 2007 12:53AM

If you cherry-picked newer 9's, you could get as many as 30 or 35 10's. You shouldn't get more than a few 8's, if any. I've had about a 60-70% bump rate over the years with newer cards, but I never did them all in one sub. That might make a difference.

If you just bought 50 9's at random, regardless of centering or sharpness, then the bump-up percentage would be much lower.

But like Lee said...the margin for newer cards often isn't that great anyway.

Your success at finding undergraded cards of any grade will also depend greatly on whether you're buying them in-person or on ebay.

SDavid · July 21, 2007 1:01AM

The type of 9 to look for to resub would be the ones with minor surface flaws (faint scratches) or maybe one slightly touched corner on the reverse.

Agreed 100%. I've gotten several bump ups on 89 UD Griffeys that had very faint scratches on the back and no other noticeable flaws, and have found that tolerance for back corner wear for 9's or 10's varies significantly among graders.

1960toppsguy · July 21, 2007 1:24AM

If you submit a card enough times, you will get the grade you desire, that is one of the reasons PSA is in business and why the POP reports mean absolutely nothing! PSA has just enough people who do this over and over and over again, they love it!

Treetop · July 21, 2007 2:01AM

I submitted 15 1972 Topps Bobby Bonds cards on one submission. Received 13 PSA 9's and 2 PSA 8's. Took the nicest 5 PSA 9's, cracked them out and sent them in. Recieved 3 PSA 9's and 2 PSA 10's

yankeeno7 · July 21, 2007 2:09AM

I completely agree with what you are all saying about what to submit. They would need a VERY good inspection before cracking. Loop, light, etc. Just that there are sooooo many that I would have no idea what are 9s and what are 10s. Being picky could certainly help that percentage.

fandango · July 21, 2007 4:47AM

<< <i>If you submit a card enough times, you will get the grade you desire, that is one of the reasons PSA is in business and why the POP reports mean absolutely nothing! PSA has just enough people who do this over and over and over again, they love it!

>>

Not exactly...

If you use the Pop reports with an understanding then it works....for example:
1 PSA 6
1 PSA 7
if there are: 40 PSA8
99 PSA9
4 PSA10 ..... of a certain card......

that 6 may have turned into the 7, a few 8's may have turned into 9's, one or two 9's may have turned into a 10.....

But the most important thing is you know with near certainty how many 10's exist.......

also, the few 8's that became 9's does not make a meaningful difference....

and the few 9's that became 10's would almost be canceled out by the 8's that became 9's....again not a meaningful difference...

(Making a safe assumption that once a card makes it to a PSA 10 slab, it is not removed to go to SGC or BGS)

the pop report is most useful in determining how many HIGHER graded examples exist and how many 10's exist....this lets you know how rare a PSA 10 is for that issue and also gives you an accurate indicator of the difficulty of the issue.....These numbers and indicators are uninfluenced by resubmits......

it would take a very small print run and small overall PSA population of an issue, for resubmits to actually change the important overal numbers....

remember resubmits may slightly alter the lesser graded cards of an issue( not the highest graded versions) ..the lesser cards tend to be have more similar prices and less value than top grades....

the example above was the Pop Report for the 2001 Pujols Bowman Chrome Auto.....i know there have been resubmits BUT HOW HAS IT AFFECTED ANYTHING...answer, it hasnt....

digicat · July 21, 2007 5:04AM

I've been 0-fer with resubs, but I did few trials.

Cracked out a 4 gem PSA 9s, and 1 PSA 8 that looked like a 9 or better. I got back the same grades, so, oh well.

cavalier · July 21, 2007 6:53AM

It's been about 6-7 years ago, maybe longer
but I remember purchasing 18 1995 bowman's best Vlad Guerrero all PSA 9 and resubmitted -- two came back 10's
4 came back eights and the rest came back as nines

At that time PSA 10 Vlads were selling for like 1500 and 9's were in the 200 range, so it was well worth it then -- but it was so much money to tie up into one card and one player and it took me like 9 months to get them, and if an injury comes along you are SOL.

I think it would be more fun to take some player on a popular team with only one rookie card and buy every card that comes on ebay for a period of time and see if one buyer can affect the price, something like the 92 Bowman Mariano Rivera. just buy every raw one that comes up on ebay for like 3 months -- I can see other buyers getting frustrated and start bidding crazy numbers just to get one.

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CavalierCards Ebay Store and Auctions

jmbkb4 · July 21, 2007 6:55AM

It really depends. I think PSA has been watching me very carefully. Of course they can, we have to submit by a member ###!

Anyways, I regularly crack out PSA 9s and have had insanely good luck with getting PSA 10s --- I'm talking 75% or so will go 9 --> 10.

My last batch of 100 cards were mostly raw (first-time subs) with 30 or so PSA 9s that had been cracked..............only 3 PSA 10s! And more 8s that I've ever had combined (literally); probably 40-50. I've never received a 7 - ever - and I got 2-3 on that sub!!! Needless to say, a new account has been created and we'll see if that makes any difference for the newest sub!!

Now, you might think I truly got the grader of death or had a tragically-sudden decline in eyesight and judgement, but I tend to think it has to do with PSA carefully watching my PSA account and not wanting to give away too many 10s (or 9s).

Time will tell.

CDsNuts · July 21, 2007 6:56AM

cav, I tried that strategy with Vernon Wells Bowman Chrome RCs last year. Didn't work out like I was hoping it would.

Lee

theczar · July 21, 2007 7:29AM

has anyone ever bought some cards graded 10 from a questionable grading company e.g GEM and cracked and submitted? i would think that would be a low risk investment that could reap some profit.

gregm13 · July 21, 2007 8:03AM

<< <i>has anyone ever bought some cards graded 10 from a questionable grading company e.g GEM and cracked and submitted? i would think that would be a low risk investment that could reap some profit. >>

GEM and PRO graded cards are ALL trimmed/altered. I bought a GEM 10 1988 Starting Lineup Dan Marino and even it was trimmed....who the hell would trim a starting lineup card???

Greg M.

WinPitcher · July 21, 2007 8:18AM

Text I think PSA has been watching me very carefully

I doubt that, I think you are paranoid.

Steve

The odds of PSA 9s becoming PSA 10s???

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