Future Baseball HOF Elections
shagrotn77
Posts: 5,631 ✭✭✭✭
I was looking over the baseball players who will be first-time eligibles for the HOF over the next 5 years, and I found all of ONE slam dunk first-ballot guy (Rickey Henderson – 2009). There are other players who I think are deserving and will be enshrined (though maybe not first ballot), but I think this upcoming period is very weak in terms of big name players.
This will serve guys who have had to wait their turns quite well, as I see Gossage, Rice, Dawson, Blyleven and Lee Smith all getting in over the next 5 years. Maybe even Jack Morris. McGwire, who knows how that will play out? Here’s the breakdown of upcoming years followed by all players with a decent chance to get in:
2008 – Tim Raines. I say no, but as the only first-time eligible player with even the slightest chance, he could sneak in. I wouldn’t have much of a problem with that either.
2009 – Rickey Henderson. They’ve probably already commissioned the creation of his bust.
2010 – Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez. I say yes to Alomar and Larkin, maybe to Fred McGriff (though probably not) and no to Edgar Martinez. Baines got zero love from the voters, so neither will Edgar.
2011 – Jeff Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Larry Walker. Based on their numbers, Bagwell, Gonzo and Palmeiro all seem like no-brainers, but the steroid cloud of suspicion hangs over each of these players, and if McGwire isn’t in by 2011, these guys might not be either. I could see Bagwell somehow escaping the steroid rumors to make it in, but to many baseball fans (myself included) there is little doubt that he was a bigtime juicer. Walker’s chances are hurt by his inflated Coors Field stats, and his lifetime numbers aren’t that great anyway.
2012 – Tim Salmon is the best player from this class. Yuck!
Mark Grace and Matt Williams will also be first-time eligibles In 2009, but I don’t see either player getting enshrined.
Baseball is in stark contrast to a sport like football where there are probably a couple dozen deserving players not enshrined yet. And the upcoming classes are so good that many of those players never will be. There are some good ones in hockey who continue to be overlooked (Ciccarelli, G. Anderson), and basketball as well (Dantley).
Oh, and I sincerely hope some serious changes are made to the VC voting process ASAP, because it is absolutely silly/stupid for them to continue to vote zero players in every other year, which is how often they cast votes. If Santo does not get in after the next VC vote in 2009, I say do away with the elitist, good for nothing committee.
This will serve guys who have had to wait their turns quite well, as I see Gossage, Rice, Dawson, Blyleven and Lee Smith all getting in over the next 5 years. Maybe even Jack Morris. McGwire, who knows how that will play out? Here’s the breakdown of upcoming years followed by all players with a decent chance to get in:
2008 – Tim Raines. I say no, but as the only first-time eligible player with even the slightest chance, he could sneak in. I wouldn’t have much of a problem with that either.
2009 – Rickey Henderson. They’ve probably already commissioned the creation of his bust.
2010 – Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez. I say yes to Alomar and Larkin, maybe to Fred McGriff (though probably not) and no to Edgar Martinez. Baines got zero love from the voters, so neither will Edgar.
2011 – Jeff Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Larry Walker. Based on their numbers, Bagwell, Gonzo and Palmeiro all seem like no-brainers, but the steroid cloud of suspicion hangs over each of these players, and if McGwire isn’t in by 2011, these guys might not be either. I could see Bagwell somehow escaping the steroid rumors to make it in, but to many baseball fans (myself included) there is little doubt that he was a bigtime juicer. Walker’s chances are hurt by his inflated Coors Field stats, and his lifetime numbers aren’t that great anyway.
2012 – Tim Salmon is the best player from this class. Yuck!
Mark Grace and Matt Williams will also be first-time eligibles In 2009, but I don’t see either player getting enshrined.
Baseball is in stark contrast to a sport like football where there are probably a couple dozen deserving players not enshrined yet. And the upcoming classes are so good that many of those players never will be. There are some good ones in hockey who continue to be overlooked (Ciccarelli, G. Anderson), and basketball as well (Dantley).
Oh, and I sincerely hope some serious changes are made to the VC voting process ASAP, because it is absolutely silly/stupid for them to continue to vote zero players in every other year, which is how often they cast votes. If Santo does not get in after the next VC vote in 2009, I say do away with the elitist, good for nothing committee.
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Comments
If you put McGwire, Palmeiro, etc. into the Hall of Fame once again I submit that the case for keeping Pete Rose out becomes very, very thin. I realize that some people have strong moral objections to gambling, but the fact that the alleged steroid users cheated to gain an edge to my thinking did far worse damage to the integrity of the game than Rose's gambling.
The real test is going to come when Bonds is up for election. Assuming he never tests positive/admits use I will be interested to see how the voting goes.
With the lack of truly deserving candidates in the coming years maybe it's a good time to revisit getting those who really deserve to be enshrined - Lefty O'Doul and Buck O'Neil come to mind - for what they did for baseball on AND off the field.
<< <i>With the lack of truly deserving candidates in the coming years maybe it's a good time to revisit getting those who really deserve to be enshrined - Lefty O'Doul and Buck O'Neil come to mind - for what they did for baseball on AND off the field. >>
I agree. And I think Tony Olivo deserves to be in too. Based on recent VC voting results though, he seems to have basically zero chance. Gil Hodges is another one who should be in.
Raines OBP-.385
Gwynn OBP-.388
Slugging-Raines-.425
Slugging-Gwynn-.459-Advantage Gwynn (about 8%), but neither player was a big bopper-Gwynn's higher slugging % was a function of his higher BA. Raines had 28 more HRs and 35 more 3Bs, Gwynn had 113 more 2Bs.
SB Raines 808 out of 954-Big advantage to Raines
SB Gwynn 319 0ut of 434
Total Bases (including walks)-Raines-5101
Total Bases (including walks)-Gwynn-5049
Runs scored + RBIs-Raines-2551
Runs scored + RBIs-Gwynn-2521
Plate Appearances-Raines-10,359-PAs for both players was taken from baseball-reference.com
Plate Appearances-Gwynn 10,232
GIDP-Raines-142-It is a small matter, but a big advantage to Raines.
GIDD-Gwynn-260
Times Reaching Base-Raines-3977
Times Reaching Base-Gwynn-3955
Defense-Raines-Slightly above average in fielding % and range factor
Defense-Gwynn-Despite the 5 gold gloves, Gwynn's defensive stats are only slightly better that Raines', particularly the fielding %-Slight advantage to Gwynn
If Gwynn deserved to be a nearly unanimous choice (I believe he did), then Raines certainly should get in as well. He was an outstanding run producer for a very long time-I believe he was at least 98% the player Gwynn was. He had a lower BA, but he walked far more often and was one of the all time great base stealers.
I would like someone to explain to me why Raines does not belong in the HOF.
- Larkin will probably go because he was the team leader and voters notoriously lean towards Reds for some reason. I think the backup catcher from the Big Red Machine got in on his second ballot.
- Raines should get in too, but probably not on his first ballot. I think he will be a Dawson-type case where his train starts to get rolling on the 3rd or 4th ballot.
- Larry Walker retired? Really?
- Palmeiro only gets the greenlight if McGwire does. We'll have a better idea once the whole steroid 'investigation' shakes out.
- No way on Juan-gone. Wasn't great for long enough and was definitely a juicer.
- McGriff- probably not, but could slide in on a down year.
- Tim Salmon- what happened? It all started out so promising. I think I paid $20 for his 1993 Finest RC.
- You left off Kevin Brown and David Cone who should both get some votes.
- I agree that Gossage, Dawson, Rice, Blyleven and Smith will all get in, and I'd like to see some support for Dale Murphy as well.
excellent post. I'm sold on Raines.
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<< <i>- Rickey, Alomar and Bagwell are locks.
- Larkin will probably go because he was the team leader and voters notoriously lean towards Reds for some reason. I think the backup catcher from the Big Red Machine got in on his second ballot.
- Raines should get in too, but probably not on his first ballot. I think he will be a Dawson-type case where his train starts to get rolling on the 3rd or 4th ballot.
- Larry Walker retired? Really?
- Palmeiro only gets the greenlight if McGwire does. We'll have a better idea once the whole steroid 'investigation' shakes out.
- No way on Juan-gone. Wasn't great for long enough and was definitely a juicer.
- McGriff- probably not, but could slide in on a down year.
- Tim Salmon- what happened? It all started out so promising. I think I paid $20 for his 1993 Finest RC.
- You left off Kevin Brown and David Cone who should both get some votes.
- I agree that Gossage, Dawson, Rice, Blyleven and Smith will all get in, and I'd like to see some support for Dale Murphy as well. >>
Lee,
terrifying logic.
No to Juan due to juice, but YES to Bagwell???
Both were/are obviously juicers.
Lee
Did you see Bagwell on the field when Biggio got his 3,000th hit??? He looks like mini Bags these days. My opinion that he juiced was formed years ago, but if you need to take a closer look at the situation, that's a good place to start. I remember reading a very in-depth article that actually implicated Bagwell as the Godfather of steroids in MLB.
And getting back to players like Alomar and Larkin, position factors in a LOT. Oliver may have had better stats than Larkin, but Larkin did his damage as a SS. Big difference. He will get in. No doubt.
<< <i>Juan had a bodybuilders physique and his owner just said he thought he was juicing. There's not nearly as much of a cloud around Bagwell. Has anyone ever accused him publicly? >>
I just did.
<< <i>No way Larkin gets in if a guy like Al Oliver isn't in (2743 hits, 219 hrs, .303 lifetime average). >>
Larkin was a SS-he gets a big bump for that. I do not know if I would vote for him or not-I probably would. Every GM would take Larkin over Oliver; this is not close.
What are Raines' chances in '08?
posted: Thursday, January 11, 2007
Tim Raines' qualifications for the Hall of Fame are quite strong; he's one of the 100 best players in the game's history and one of the five or so best leadoff men; he was probably the best player in the National League in the mid-1980s; and he was an icon in the go-go years of the stolen base in that same decade. But his chances for the Hall of Fame are widely seen to be slim.
I contacted 30 Hall of Fame voters to ask if they thought they would vote for Raines in next year's ballot. Of the 26 who responded with an answer, 17 said yes, they would probably or definitely vote for Raines. Seven said no, and two were unsure of their votes. Seventeen of 26 is 65 percent, and while selection bias makes this less than a meaningful sample, it's not that likely that we're off by a factor of two. Raines has a good shot to appear on more than half the ballots next year, which would make him a near-lock for an eventual election.
What was interesting about the "yes" comments was how many voters also expressed their belief that Raines would not appear on that many ballots. I think the perception of Raines among members of the media -- a dangerous and talented ballplayer who was also great character guy -- doesn't match his perception among the public. As a result, many voters with whom I corresponded used Raines' public perception as their gauge of his chances to get in. This small experiment points in the other direction, and as a Raines supporter (but non-voter), I hope it's accurate.