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Anaconda Rare Coins - Santa Clara New Purchases & Market Report - Just Added More Inventory 5-2-

poorguypoorguy Posts: 4,317 ✭
in Buy, Sell, & Trade - U.S. Coins
Hello All,

This was our first trip to the Santa Clara show in California and despite rumors of the show’s steadily decline; we actually had a very good show. While it was kind of tough to find suitable material, we did manage to do a lot of business with both customers who met us at the show and other dealers who had somewhat fresh material. There was a lot of early gold on the floor but none met my strict expectations with the exception of one superb 1795 13 Leaves $10 graded PCGS AU58. It wasn’t cheap but then again, I don’t think I would want to own bargain priced Early gold with all of the doctored and overgraded crap in the Early Gold market right now. I really wish the public attendance would have been stronger but those who attended didn’t come with empty pockets. We both sold to and purchased coins from numerous clients who met with us at the show and had a real good time chatting with them. One thing we managed to do that was interesting to say the least was eating at a place called “Hong Kong Saigon Seafood Harbour Restaurant”. Walking in the door, it was immediately obvious that the menus were not Americanized as we were the only ones there not of Asian descent. After checking out the large tanks of strange looking fish, huge lobsters, geoducks, large shrimp, and clams, we sat down, read over the menu, and ordered roasted squab (pigeon), frog stir fry, and fried pork intestines. I found out that pork intestines are an aquired taste and that pigeon is served best with it’s head right there on the plate with it.

Observations about the show:

1. Less commodity type stock in dealer cases including walkers and morgans.
2. Public attendance was marginal but those who came, brought money to spend.
3. Increased demand for attractive proof type including anything seated and nicely toned.
4. Higher % of problem/overgraded coins circulating through the market.
5. The market for early copper is still gaining strength.

Overall, the show was excellent and we came back with some fabulous coins for your consideration. If you have any questions or have interest in any of our offerings, feel free to contact me via email (brandon@anacondararecoins.com) or by phone at 1-800-440-8334. I’ve also taken the time to write an article regarding the current market dichotomy.

Some highlights of our new offerings from this show include:

a. 1795 $10 PCGS AU58 13 Leaves Early Gold Eagle $115,000.00
b. 1879 $4 NGC PF65CAMEO Flowing Hair Stella $240,000.00
c. Some Incredible Carson City Seated Coinage PCGS graded.
d. 1862 $1 PCGS MS64 Prooflike Cameo Seated Dollar $13,750.00
e. A fine selection of Carson City Morgan Dollars in PCGS MS66 Deep Mirror Prooflike.
f. Some Incredibly Toned Early Commemoratives including a stunning Grant, Bay Bridge, and Pilgrim!
g. Many other exceptional and eye appealing Early, Seated, Capped, and Draped Bust Material. Enjoy!


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1879 $4 NGC PF65CAMEO Cameo Proof Flowing Hair Stella

Asking Price: $240,000.00



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1862 $1 PCGS MS64 Prooflike Seated Dollar (True Mint State)

Asking Price: $13,750.00



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1795 $10 PCGS AU58 Small Eagle Turban Head Gold - 13 Leaves.

Asking Price: $115,000.00



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1885-CC $1 PCGS MS66DMPL Morgan Silver Dollar

Asking Price: $9,200.00



Dichotomy - Problem Coins vs. Non Problem Coins & Their Affect on Market Prices & Availability

I've seen it time and time again. I see it when collectors offer me coins to buy. I see it at shows looking through dealer inventories. I see it on eBay. I see it in droves at every large auction while viewing lots. There are problem coins everwhere and outnumber the non-problem coins at least 2-1.

By problem coins I am referring to subpar quality coins for the assigned grades, coins that have been doctored, and coins that just have a myriad of problems. The vast majority being coins that are overgraded. I know grading is subjective but in many cases, it's obvious even to a lamen when a coin is overgraded. When you get into the realm of AU58 or MS63, that's more subjective than an someone assigning a grade of MS63 to a coin that is barely an MS61 and technically an MS60 which is an all too common occurance. Problem coins include overgraded coins but the moment they are put into a holder much higher than the actual grade, nobody will touch them so they become problem coins. While they might be nice for an MS63, they certainly aren't gems and since the seller will expect gem money (because of the grade on the holder) and would never sell the coin for true MS63 money, it'll either get overpaid for, rot in inventory, or get wholesaled to a price buyer who will then start the crap cycle over again looking for the next bargain hunter.

By non-problem coins I am pointing to the accurately graded, undergraded, and problem free coins on the market and they are getting scarcer by the day. As collectors are noticing stabilizing prices they just aren't letting their collections go and therefore holding back from putting their coins out on the market. On the other hand, the problem coins will be shoveled back into the market by collectors gaining knowledge about the area they are collecting in and doing a little housecleaning letting go the overgraded and problem coins and replacing them with quality non-problem coins. The softening of prices for low-quality coins and it's consideration in price guides has also made collectors reluctant to release their treasures when such a negative impact is affecting the prices of properly graded coins. This would also explain the near 2-1 ratio of problem coins to non problem coins on the market.

Market prices are heavily affected by these problem coins circulating through the market tiers. The pricing differences between low-end and high-end for the same grade can be staggering especially where the spread is significant.

Just look at the average price differences between these 1885-CC Deep Mirror Prooflike Morgans in MS66 from the Heritage Website:

Previous Prices from Heritage Auctions
Lot Date Grade Service Realized
Auction 422, Lot 1096 Saturday, January 6, 2007 66 PCGS $9,200.00
Auction 394, Lot 6594 Saturday, January 7, 2006 66 PCGS $14,950.00
Auction 430, Lot 5527 Saturday, February 17, 2007 66 NGC $3,737.50
Auction 414, Lot 2933 Monday, August 14, 2006 66 NGC $5,175.00
Auction 404, Lot 3443 Saturday, April 29, 2006 66 NGC $5,175.00

Price Guide* Numismedia Retail Numismedia Wholesale Numismedia NGC (nmn) Numismedia PCGS (nmp) PCGS Price Guide
65 --- $4,280 $3,425 $3,000 $3,100 $3,400
66 --- $9,380 $7,500 $6,000 $6,250 $11,000
67 --- $23,130 $18,500 $16,280 $16,840 $23,500

This is only one example but there are thousands out there in almost every tier of the market. This example is especially good because it illustrates both the fluctuations in pricing compared with the differences in buyer confidence with both PCGS and NGC and speaks volumes in terms of the current state of the market. Take note of the price in the lower grade of MS65 and compare with the prices realized. The low end coins sell for closer to next down and don't even come close to value associated with the grade on the slab as indicated by the price guide information. This is what the low-end and problem coins sell for as opposed to the high-end examples which you can plainly see sell for a much higher price. (take note of this when buying because when you buy the bargain, expect the same performance when you go to sell. What goes around comes around.)

So, what is the coin you are thinking about buying really worth? Is it high-end or low end? How accurate is the pricing information available? All of these questions should be able to be answered by whom you are purchasing from. One screw up could end up costing thousands because of the price fluctuations between different examples of the same date-mm coin in the same grade, even by the same service.

The PCGS price guide indicates a value of $11,000 for this coin but the average price realized in the last 5 heritage auctions indicate $7,600 which is where the numismedia wholesale price is set at. Even the average of the two PCGS coins sold via heritage in the list above average out to over 12k. So why is the PCGS price guide stating 11k? Most likely to take into account the lower end examples that are also selling out there in PCGS holders.

Since there is no set-in-stone price guide for coins, don't rely on just pricing data to make your purchasing decision. Take into account the most important thing, THE COIN ITSELF and get as many opinions on it as possible from reliable sources before just jumping in and relying on the slab label and the assigned grade to dictate the price you would consider paying. The market is split between these two types of coins. Given the historical $$ track record of problem coins, I find it wise to be on the other end of the spectrum and pay more for high-end examples instead of hunting the bargains and getting frustrated at the quality recieved and the numerous headaches when trying to sell just to break even. You'll find yourself whining a whole lot less if you don't settle for mediocre and low quality coins, even if they are a "bargain".
Brandon Kelley - ANA - 972.746.9193 - http://www.bestofyesterdaycollectibles.com

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