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1968 Topps Populations - The Exception Or The Rule???
mcastaldi
Posts: 1,130 ✭✭
In looking at the pop report for 1968, I noticed several cards with more then 30 examples in PSA10 - and a few with more then 50 PSA10s. I know 1968 is nototious for having high populations. My understanding is this is primarily due to the availability of vending runs and cut cases. I got to wondering. . .is 1968 Topps the odditity in this regard - or is it the rule and other sets from the era just haven't caught up yet?
I ran population numbers for 1966 to 1970 - 1968 & the two years before and the two years after. Further, I ran numbers for the two most-pursued sets of the 70s - and - the 1990 Leaf set which I know has been completed in all PSA10 (another 90% complete set has all 10s as well).
1966
Total graded - 51623
Total PSA10s - 131 - 0.254%
Total PSA9s - 4067 - 7.88%
1967
Total Graded - 69058
Total PSA10s - 169 -- 0.244%
Total PSA9s - 6544 -- 9.48%
1968
Total Graded - 98765
Total PSA10s - 2138 - 2.16%
Total PSA9s - 21767 - 22.04%
1969 -
Total Graded = 82610
Total PSA10s - 596 -- 0.721%
Total PSA9s - 13364 -- 16.18%
1970
Total Graded - 62858
Total PSA10s - 481 - 0.765%
Total PSA9s - 9920 - 15.78%
1972 -
Total Graded - 83050 --
Total PSA10s - 1097 - 1.32%
Total PSA9s - 14393 - 17.33%
1975 -
Total Graded - 85326 -
Total PSA10 - 734 - 0.86%
Total PSA9 - 15059 - 17.65%
1990 Leaf -
Total Graded - 72847
Total PSA10s - 7562 - 10.38%
Total PSA9s - 42070 - 57.75%
Observations -
* Compared to 1966 & 1967, 1968 has TEN TIMES as many PSA10s as a percentage of the total graded.
* Compared to 1969 & 1970, 1968 has significantly more PSA10s, but the difference isn't as great as with 66 & 67. Again, from the percentage of the total graded.
* Compared to 1966 & 67, 1968 has an amazing 22% PSA9 rate - where 66 & 67 are in the 8% to 9.5% range. But compared to 69 & 70, 68 still has a higher percentage of 9s, but is generally in line with these two later sets.
* 1972 has an amazing 1.32% PSA10 rate - but pales in comparrison to the 2.16% of the 1968 set. In real numbers, that's over 1000 more 10s in the 13,000 additional cards graded.
* Even compared to the two 70s sets, 1968 has significantly more PSA9s.
Questions -
1) What do you suppose accounts for the extreme numbers of the 1968 set?
2) Why do we not see similar percentages of 9s and 10s until we get into late 70s or 80s sets (which have nowhere near the total quantity submitted yet)?
3) Do you think that the cycle of 1968s have run their couse and the other sets will demonstrate similar percentages in time? If so, why has 1968 peaked first? Why not some other year?
Mike
I ran population numbers for 1966 to 1970 - 1968 & the two years before and the two years after. Further, I ran numbers for the two most-pursued sets of the 70s - and - the 1990 Leaf set which I know has been completed in all PSA10 (another 90% complete set has all 10s as well).
1966
Total graded - 51623
Total PSA10s - 131 - 0.254%
Total PSA9s - 4067 - 7.88%
1967
Total Graded - 69058
Total PSA10s - 169 -- 0.244%
Total PSA9s - 6544 -- 9.48%
1968
Total Graded - 98765
Total PSA10s - 2138 - 2.16%
Total PSA9s - 21767 - 22.04%
1969 -
Total Graded = 82610
Total PSA10s - 596 -- 0.721%
Total PSA9s - 13364 -- 16.18%
1970
Total Graded - 62858
Total PSA10s - 481 - 0.765%
Total PSA9s - 9920 - 15.78%
1972 -
Total Graded - 83050 --
Total PSA10s - 1097 - 1.32%
Total PSA9s - 14393 - 17.33%
1975 -
Total Graded - 85326 -
Total PSA10 - 734 - 0.86%
Total PSA9 - 15059 - 17.65%
1990 Leaf -
Total Graded - 72847
Total PSA10s - 7562 - 10.38%
Total PSA9s - 42070 - 57.75%
Observations -
* Compared to 1966 & 1967, 1968 has TEN TIMES as many PSA10s as a percentage of the total graded.
* Compared to 1969 & 1970, 1968 has significantly more PSA10s, but the difference isn't as great as with 66 & 67. Again, from the percentage of the total graded.
* Compared to 1966 & 67, 1968 has an amazing 22% PSA9 rate - where 66 & 67 are in the 8% to 9.5% range. But compared to 69 & 70, 68 still has a higher percentage of 9s, but is generally in line with these two later sets.
* 1972 has an amazing 1.32% PSA10 rate - but pales in comparrison to the 2.16% of the 1968 set. In real numbers, that's over 1000 more 10s in the 13,000 additional cards graded.
* Even compared to the two 70s sets, 1968 has significantly more PSA9s.
Questions -
1) What do you suppose accounts for the extreme numbers of the 1968 set?
2) Why do we not see similar percentages of 9s and 10s until we get into late 70s or 80s sets (which have nowhere near the total quantity submitted yet)?
3) Do you think that the cycle of 1968s have run their couse and the other sets will demonstrate similar percentages in time? If so, why has 1968 peaked first? Why not some other year?
Mike
So full of action, my name should be a verb.
0
Comments
Large amounts of '68 vending would be the cause of the grades- from what I understand they were either over printed or under distributed, causing a huge glut in the marketplace. While I personally like them as a sentimental favorite it is a set that is often cited as one of the fugliest of the '60's- perhaps kids in '68 thought the same thing, and just didn't buy them in the amount that Topps thought they would.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
Mike
I think the Tigers won the 68 series over the Cards, maybe all the hot market cities were out of the playoff picture early and card sales sucked, who knows.
Never cared for the 68 set that much.
Peace
45% complete.
Race probably over fairly early. Tigers won by 12 games and Cards by 9, may not have really been that close.
New York and Chicago teams out early, LA too, not sure where major baseball card buying markets were, only guessing.
Peace
Final 1968 Major League Baseball Standings
American League
Team Won Lost GB PCT
Detroit 103 59 - .636
Baltimore 91 71 12.0 .562
Cleveland 86 75 16.5 .534
Boston 86 76 17.0 .531
New York Yankees 83 79 20.0 .512
Oakland 82 80 21.0 .506
Minnesota 79 83 24.0 .488
California 67 95 36.0 .414
Chicago White Sox 67 95 36.0 .414
Washington 65 96 37.5 .404
National League
Team Won Lost GB PCT
St. Louis 97 65 - .599
San Francisco 88 74 9.0 .543
Chicago Cubs 84 78 13.0 .519
Cincinnati 83 79 14.0 .512
Atlanta 81 81 16.0 .500
Pittsburgh 80 82 17.0 .494
Philadelphia 76 86 21.0 .469
Los Angeles 76 86 21.0 .469
New York Mets 73 89 24.0 .451
Houston 72 90 25.0 .444
45% complete.
<< <i>Mike-
Large amounts of '68 vending would be the cause of the grades- from what I understand they were either over printed or under distributed, causing a huge glut in the marketplace. While I personally like them as a sentimental favorite it is a set that is often cited as one of the fugliest of the '60's- perhaps kids in '68 thought the same thing, and just didn't buy them in the amount that Topps thought they would. >>
I thought that this was the cause, too. I forget the dealer's name, but I thought that Dan Markel and Mike Bow both got large numbers of cards from one of the dealers that had happened to be sitting on vending remnants from this set. The glut, I think, is confined specifically to some series, and not others, so it may just be over-production of one or two series that ended up sitting around for a long-time.
Even when I was just a Phillies collector in the 1999-2001 timeframe, I remember seeing #477 Phillies Team and #512 Grant Jackson in PSA 10 nearly every week on Ebay for a year.
~ms
-Ian
Fuzz