If Frank Thomas hits 500 home runs, does he get into the Hall?

jmbkb4 · July 6, 2006 11:51AM

Big Frank is my favorite player and he is currently only 34 home runs away from the elite 500 mark.

If he makes 500, is he a second- or third-ballot HOFer?

I think he definitely is a HOFer. He was without question the best player at his position in the mid-90s, which is a compelling point with voters. No steroid scandals, no other scandals to speak of.

Discuss.

Thanks!

Josh

Wizardsguildcards · July 6, 2006 11:56AM

I think with all the scandals today, depending on who he is up with he should be a first ballot with or without 500 HRs.

storm888 · July 6, 2006 12:03PM

He will be in.

Skilled fellow, and nice.

storm

WinPitcher · July 6, 2006 12:16PM

I agree, I think he will be inducted with or without the 500 homers.

Steve

shagrotn77 · July 6, 2006 12:49PM

I think he gets in, but 500 will make it 100%. The back to back MVPs were real nice.

grote15 · July 6, 2006 1:03PM

Thomas is a certain HOFer, maybe not first ballot, but he will get in within 3 tries at most depending on who he's up against when he finally becomes eligible. 500 HRs is no longer a ticket to Cooperstown in this day and age, at least it's not like 3,000 hits or 300 wins, but Thomas has been a model citizen for the most part and he was a dominating force in the 1990s. Like Griffey Jr., injuries have taken away a lot of the numbers he would have posted, but he's a HOFer in my estimation, even if he doesn't get to 500 HRs.

Stone193 · July 6, 2006 1:36PM

They don't call him the Big Hurt for nothin'

mike

ToppsCo1lector · July 6, 2006 2:23PM

Yep, a first ballot HOF'er in my mind. One of the best eyes on a power hitter I've ever seen. The ankle/foot injuries have taken some of his best season away but he's looking pretty healthy right now and in a nice lineup with Oakland. Growing up he was one of my favorite players.

zef204 · July 6, 2006 2:37PM

I don't know if he gets in. It'll be interesting with the guys of this era as to what happens.

His career stats are very similar to Jeff Bagwell. Does Bagwell get in? Larry Walker?

All three of those guys, IMO are more deserving than the sluggers of that era. Sosa, McGwire...

I think Griff is a sure thing and Big Frank likely is too. But with all the scandal skewing the stats of who did and who ddin't is going to make the superstars of the 90's and the HOF very interesting.

grote15 · July 6, 2006 2:45PM

I agree with bigzef, Griffey is a lock. Thomas will get in after a couple of tries, but I don't see Walker getting in (all those inflated Colorado stats will work against him) and Bagwell is a long shot, too, though he has a better shot than Walker for sure.

Does Schilling get in? How about Biggio? IMHO Biggio is more deserving than either Walker or Bagwell.

Stone193 · July 6, 2006 2:48PM

<< Black Ink: Batting - 21 (96) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 189 (46) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 57.5 (36) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 179.0 (50) (Likely HOFer > 100) >>

Based on these statistical monitors - and it's one guys system - he has the numbers for the hall.

Anyone who wants to spend more time analyzing this assessment can look at this link.

He will define black and gray ink standards and his HOF monitor.

His popularity in the past 5-6 yrs had really killed what I thought was one of the top players in baseball.

But, I still like him and think he's goin' to the HOF.

So, if anyone need a 90B in a 9 or 10 - eventually, I will be doing the sub of the century! I think I have 250 of them!

mike

DaBigHurt · July 6, 2006 4:06PM

I would put Jack Morris into the Hall of Fame before Curt Schilling.

Thomas absolutely deserves to be in the HOF and he doesn't have the steriod cloud hanging over his head like Bagwell.

bighurt2000 · July 6, 2006 10:52PM

As the 4th biggest Frank Thomas support on this site I would have to say that it has been
an up and down debate with me that Frank would make it into the HOF. I watched Frank on
T.V. year after year killing pitchers fastballs or raking in walks. Then came injuries then more
injuries then the trash talk in the clubhouse. Now he gets to have a fresh start with Oakland which
I think is the best thing that could happened to him f@ck the White Sox's.

As for do I think Frank Thomas will get in the HOF if he hits 500 home run I think he should
get into the HOF even if he doesn't hit 500 home runs with all the players using streiods and
HGH and tell us they didn't use them then we find out the did. I think he has a better chance
now then every before.

Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, Bagwell, etc.. hope you guys get hit by a car and die the morning that you are
to be inducted into the HOF cheaters!!!

RichG · July 6, 2006 10:56PM

Even though I'm not a big hurt fan (and i'm a diehard ChiSox fan), I think he will make it into the HOF. As far as I'm concerend, when he was with the Sox he was more of a problem than a help to the club (If he wasn't complaining about not wanting to DH, then he was complaining about his salary, and if he wasn't complaining then he was hurt). We don't need people or want players like that in Chicago.
Rich

ROCKDJRW · July 6, 2006 11:28PM

If Giambi wasn't on the juice in 2000 Frank Thomas would have won his third MVP! In my eyes he is a lock.

larryallen73 · July 7, 2006 12:15AM

Thomas is a LOCK to get in.
Larry Walker? Come on now. That's just silly. I could hit 35 HR's in Coor's Canaveral!
Happy Friday to all.

zef204 · July 7, 2006 12:21AM

<< Even though I'm not a big hurt fan (and i'm a diehard ChiSox fan), I think he will make it into the HOF. As far as I'm concerend, when he was with the Sox he was more of a problem than a help to the club (If he wasn't complaining about not wanting to DH, then he was complaining about his salary, and if he wasn't complaining then he was hurt). We don't need people or want players like that in Chicago.
Rich >>

Rich,

It seems you forgot the decade he was the only thing to watch on the south side. His last 3-4 years in Chicago would fall into your assessment, but people all to soon forget what a stud he was from 90-2000.

RonBurgundy · July 7, 2006 12:27AM

Wow, some Frank Thomas fans abound here. It's pretty simple, really. If he gets to 500 HR's, he's a lock. If not, he's a question mark with probably a 60-40 chance of eventually getting in. In the steroid era, the 400 HR club is what the 300 HR club used to be, and there are going to be guys with 400+ HR's who do not get in, namely Canseco, Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez (what a waste of talent), McGriff, and there will be more. Thomas will have to wait awhile if he remains in the 400 range.

By the way, what an inane comment above about the "steroid cloud hanging over Jeff Bagwell." I am neither a Bagwell fan or foe, but to make a comment like that without any supporting evidence is pathetic. The guy has a shoulder of a 70 year old. I doubt that steroids caused that.

Stay classy,

Ron

Writer11 · July 7, 2006 12:32AM

I will almost guarantee that Frank Thomas makes it in on the first ballot- 500 HRS or not. People forget that aside from his HR total, he is a great all-around hitter. His OBP is remarkable.

RichG · July 7, 2006 12:48AM

Zef:
Acutally, I do remember the days when Frank Thomas was good for Chicago. With this said, I'm rating him on the overall picture. In most cases people are remembered for what they have did lately and not what they did years before. A good person can turn into a bad person just as easily as a bad person can turn good. I'm not saying that Thomas was a bad person, however...I am saying that he became more of a distraction as his ChiSox career got older.
Rich

mcastaldi · July 7, 2006 1:20AM

I don't think 500 HR matters one bit. For a 10 year period, he was simply the dominant 1B in the American League. Seriously, how many guys are there with 450+ HR AND a career BA of over .300?

Mike

kcballboy · July 7, 2006 1:36AM

<< Wow, some Frank Thomas fans abound here. It's pretty simple, really. If he gets to 500 HR's, he's a lock. If not, he's a question mark with probably a 60-40 chance of eventually getting in. In the steroid era, the 400 HR club is what the 300 HR club used to be, and there are going to be guys with 400+ HR's who do not get in, namely Canseco, Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez (what a waste of talent), McGriff, and there will be more. Thomas will have to wait awhile if he remains in the 400 range.

By the way, what an inane comment above about the "steroid cloud hanging over Jeff Bagwell." I am neither a Bagwell fan or foe, but to make a comment like that without any supporting evidence is pathetic. The guy has a shoulder of a 70 year old. I doubt that steroids caused that.

Stay classy,

Ron >>

I definitely agree about Bagwell. It seems that all I ever hear about the guy is that he was juicing. Can someone tell me why he, with absolutely no evidence, is tossed in with all the rest of the 'disgraces of the game' yet a guy like Giambi, who admitted use, seems to almost get a free pass. He took his heat for awhile when he wasn't producing, but now that he is productive again it's not that bad.

ldferg · July 7, 2006 1:39AM

i think with 500 he's in. i think he's in regardless.

DaBigHurt · July 7, 2006 3:21AM

So wait, you really think Bagwell was able to put on 40 pounds of muscle over a few short years, grow his head a few sizes and go from hitting 15 homers a year to 47 a year naturally?

Have you seen a picture of Bagwell from his rookie year?

onefasttalon · July 7, 2006 3:21AM

Yep, Frank should get in. Not sure he'll be a first ballot, but it would be nice. I was glad that 1.) he finally got a WS ring last year with the team he helped carry through the 90's, and 2.) now has a chance to 'start over again' on a new team. Let's face it, he doesn't have many more years left, but I'd still hate to try and through a fastball by him!

Larry Walker? Biggio? Bagwell? ... MAN, there were a lot of GREAT players just a few years ago weren't there? Let's not forget about Mark Grace (didnt' he have more extra base hits thorugh the 90's than any other player?), let's not forget about Barry Larkin (deserves some soort of recognition,) and what about Gary Sheffield???? ... HOF, or will the fact that he's played for every team in the majors hurt him? Larry Walker probably won't get in, and that will be a shame. Biggio... well, he deserves it, but I think he needs to finish his road to 3,000 hits first. Bagwell... great player, but I just don't think he'll get enough votes.

digicat · July 7, 2006 4:04AM

<< So wait, you really think Bagwell was able to put on 40 pounds of muscle over a few short years, grow his head a few sizes and go from hitting 15 homers a year to 47 a year naturally? >>

ESPN has Bagwell's weight at 215. Baseballreference has it at 195. What's his rookie card say?

Going from a few homers to a lot isn't unprecidented. There's many HoFers who took a season or two to learn how to hit big league pitching.

DaBigHurt · July 7, 2006 4:17AM

But we're talking about players in the steriod era.

I think his forearms alone weigh 215.

RonBurgundy · July 7, 2006 4:18AM

"So wait, you really think Bagwell was able to put on 40 pounds of muscle over a few short years, grow his head a few sizes and go from hitting 15 homers a year to 47 a year naturally?

Have you seen a picture of Bagwell from his rookie year? "

Why use a thread about Frank Thomas to take a shot at Jeff Bagwell? Seems ridiculous to me.

Stay classy,

Ron

DaBigHurt · July 7, 2006 4:32AM

<< "So wait, you really think Bagwell was able to put on 40 pounds of muscle over a few short years, grow his head a few sizes and go from hitting 15 homers a year to 47 a year naturally?

Have you seen a picture of Bagwell from his rookie year? "

Why use a thread about Frank Thomas to take a shot at Jeff Bagwell? Seems ridiculous to me.

Stay classy,

Ron >>

I'm not the person who brought up Bagwell's name to begin with. I just mentioned why I think Bagwell probably won't be in the HOF. You're the one that flipped out and wondered how people could talk about steroids in relation to Bagwell in the STERIOD ERA. Unfortunately, this is the state of baseball today. Every player in this era that grew hat sizes, bulked up like the Incredible Hulk and broke down are suspect.

Sosa and McGwire never tested positive for 'roids, but are you going to say they don't have clouds over their heads?

srs1a · July 7, 2006 4:36AM

Looks like I am clearly in the minority here, but I don't think he belongs in the hall. Even if he manages to keep his BA over .300 and gets 500 dingers, I still don't think he belongs.

As for him being a dominant first baseman...I think he will be remembered as a DH. In 1991 he played the field in only 56 of the 158 games in which he appeared! In '95, he was playing almost 40% of his games as a DH. Likewise in '97. From '98 to the present, he has played the field in fewer than 15% of the games in which he has appeared. Over his career, he played the field in 972/2021 games.

Does anyone remember his public comments when Arod was negotiating his new contract? I seem to remember him saying that his current contract (worth multiple of millions/year) was an embarassment.

ToppsCo1lector · July 7, 2006 4:37AM

<< "So wait, you really think Bagwell was able to put on 40 pounds of muscle over a few short years, grow his head a few sizes and go from hitting 15 homers a year to 47 a year naturally?

Have you seen a picture of Bagwell from his rookie year? "

Why use a thread about Frank Thomas to take a shot at Jeff Bagwell? Seems ridiculous to me.

Stay classy,

Ron >>

Thomas was a huge guy at Rutgers, he didn't just "blossom" ala Giambi, Baggs, and Bonds. I highly doubt Thomas ever used steriods, but those other guys?

RichG · July 7, 2006 4:55AM

srs......Without a doubt I remember him saying that his contract was an embarassment. Like I said earlier, I started off liking Thomas, but as he became more selfish over time and more or less a cancer in the clubhouse I started to dislike him. However, As far as his stats are concerned, I still think he will make the HOF.
Rich

Bighurt4 · July 7, 2006 8:12AM

Big Frank was recruited as a tight end for Auburn University but decided to concentrate on baseball after his freshman year.

A quote,

<< Amazingly, Thomas went undrafted out of high school; scouts assumed that at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, he'd stick with football. He played as a freshman tight end at Auburn, which is unusual, but he made an even bigger splash on the baseball team that year, when he was named a freshman All-American and to the All-Southeastern Conference team. >>

from this article.

I am biased but I think he is a 2nd or 3rd ballot guy.

Brent

jmbkb4 · July 7, 2006 9:50AM

<< If Giambi wasn't on the juice in 2000 Frank Thomas would have won his third MVP! In my eyes he is a lock. >>

Dude, I was JUST getting ready to post this ----------- VERY IMPORTANT FACT. I mean, MVP awards in different decades would be a huge asset.

As far as I am concerned, Frank Thomas easily won the MVP award in 2000. Giambi is a douche, liar, and a tool ------- there is a huge "*" permanently affixed to his 2000 AL MVP.

'nuff said.

ToppsCo1lector · July 7, 2006 9:56AM

<< Big Frank was recruited as a tight end for Auburn University but decided to concentrate on baseball after his freshman year.

A quote,

<< Amazingly, Thomas went undrafted out of high school; scouts assumed that at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, he'd stick with football. He played as a freshman tight end at Auburn, which is unusual, but he made an even bigger splash on the baseball team that year, when he was named a freshman All-American and to the All-Southeastern Conference team. >>

from this article.

I am biased but I think he is a 2nd or 3rd ballot guy.

Brent >>

Yeah you got it right. I knew he was given a chance a big name school in football.

JoeBanzai · July 7, 2006 11:02AM

I am not a Thomas fan, but he deserves to go in the HOF.

I disagree with the Larry Walker bashing, I saw him go 5 for 5 and all of the hits were ropes. The air didn't help him THAT much.

Take a look at his stats, inflated or not they are pretty impressive. Unles you can show me a drastic difference in home vs away for the years 1995-2002, I'll put him in the HOF too.

He had a pretty good year in 1994; 44 doubles and .322 BA in only 103 games, before going to Colorado!

Joe

aro13 · July 7, 2006 12:30PM

Joe - I like Walker too, and while I have not bothered to check his hall of fame chances his numbers in Coors are substantially better than on the road.
Between 1995 and 2003 at Coors
152 homers, 512 rbis .381 average .462 OBP and .710 SLG
On the road
100 homers 316 rbis .279 average .378 OBP and .508 SLG

DaBigHurt · July 7, 2006 12:40PM

I think Dante Bichette, Andres Galaragga and Vinny Castilla should also get into the HOF. Preston Wilson too.

jmbkb4 · July 7, 2006 12:55PM

<< Joe - I like Walker too, and while I have not bothered to check his hall of fame chances his numbers in Coors are substantially better than on the road.
Between 1995 and 2003 at Coors
152 homers, 512 rbis .381 average .462 OBP and .710 SLG
On the road
100 homers 316 rbis .279 average .378 OBP and .508 SLG >>

I'd say case closed for Walker ------- and he never had half the name recognition that Thomas has to this day.

bighurt2000 · July 7, 2006 1:17PM

Sorry guys for messing up this tread with my Bagwell comment I still think Bagwell was on something for a few years.
Sorry Again

JoeBanzai · July 7, 2006 1:26PM

Well, I guess I should stick with the American League. I wonder how many players hit better at home than on the road and if so, how big of a difference it averages.

I must have selective memory, it just seemed to me that Walker was always hitting line drives when I saw him play.

I will grudgingly concede the point, but as with Jim Rice, who gets the same rap for playing in Fenway, these guys got the hits, while none of their teammates hit that well. If it's THAT easy to hit in these parks why doesn't everybody hit .381 over an eight year span at Coors?

Walker is out, Frank Thomas is in. Unless there is some kind of advantage for left-handed hitters in Chicago?

Joe

aro13 · July 7, 2006 1:44PM

Joe - I do not think it is so simple with Walker. His road OBP and SLG are still very good. He was hurt a ton so in his career he had one season over 145 games. The one season he was completely healthy in 1997 his numbers away from Coors were 29 homers, 62 rbis, .346 average, .443 OBP and .733 SLG.
The player most helped by any one park has to be Boggs in Fenway. However, people tend to overlook that fact.

Anyway, to get back to the thread. I think Thomas will get in the Hall regardless of his total homers. He has 9 seasons where he accumulated over 100 runs, 100 rbis and 100 walks. The old style voters will love his rbi and run production. The new wave voters will love his OPS.

DeutscherGeist · July 7, 2006 2:30PM

Thomas was the dominant offensive player of his era. If he did not win, the MVP, he came close.
Griffey was the best overall player.

You will have to compare Thomas to other first basemen in his era like Bagwell, Mattingly, McGwire, McGriff, etc.

There is no doubt that Thomas was all the rage in the 90s. He got into the top 5 of MVP voting many times, so his stats were outstanding. If he is no HOF, then I don't know who is. I guess the argument most will make is that he was not dominant long enough? Sure, he has had not so spectacular seasons this decade, but that was due to injury, not talent. I think he did a lot in baseball, so the fact he had a few bad seasons should not be used against him.

JoeBanzai · July 7, 2006 3:34PM

Aro, I still really like Walker, his statistics are solid his .565 SLG% is 16th all-time and Coors field didn't get the hits, although there was SOME advantage.

On Boggs, he was simply phenomenal. I feel much more comfortable discussing him as he played in the AL. While there is no doubt that he got a lot of doubles by using the "Green Monster", he had the ability to do it, many players have taken a look at the wall and got psyched out, he just hammered baseballs against it.

He was the best curveball hitter I ever saw....bang, slapped over the pitchers head into center field.

Check this out....8 straight years leading the league in most times on base! I saw Carew for the prime of his career in Minnesota and nobody seems to criticize him for all the times he slapped the ball just over the shortstops head. I don't really remember him as a line drive hitter, although 1977 was an awesome year for him.

They both have the same lifetime batting average, but I like the 7 straight 200 hit seasons Boggs had vs just 4 for Carew. Boggs also struck out a lot less and walked a lot more.

JoeBanzai

grote15 · July 7, 2006 4:14PM

I'd have to give the nod to Boggs over Carew, too, though Carew was a tremendous hitter also. In the 30 years I've been watching baseball, I'd say only Gwynn was better than Boggs.

RichG · July 7, 2006 9:41PM

bighurt:
Why in the heck are you sorry. You didn't mess up this thread. We are in a discussuion and many times these discussions go OT without notice.
Rich

fiveniner · July 7, 2006 9:54PM

Without a doubt!!

Skinpinch · July 8, 2006 12:25AM

Coors field did help everybody who hit there, and Walker was certainly no different. Players that play in a neutral park never have home/road splits to any degree like that. Players typically exhibit a slightly better home ratio in their numbers. Walker was certainly helped by Coors, just like any other player who played there. Sure there may be a one year blip or so, or the Jeff Cirrilo case where he was worse at Coors for a year, but in fact, Coors masked his decline(which was very evident when he left).

Virtually every Red Sox regular was helped at Fenway in that era. Sure, players who excelled at a park that inflates numbers gets the hits, but that wouldn't happen in a neutral park. We know this because we see what they do in the other parks, and we see the increase of all other players when they come to the hitters park. The players in those hitters parks just aren't as good as their raw totals suggest.

Thomas is a no brainer Hall of Famer. I too see Bagwell on juice...usually when it looks like a duck, it is.

The only thing that makes ne nervous about Thomas being given a clean bill of no juice is that he played football(and football players and juice go hand and hand). When he was playing football those things were running rampant in College football, so the notion that he was big before he got to MLB doesn't really mean much. Some people may say that is why he exploded on the scene so quickly...that he was already doing that stuff in college. I can't say he was, but I'm not willing to rule it out so quickly like it seems to be the case with him.

Here are the total Home Road splits for all Rockies hitters per year. Just SLG% HOME/ROAD, staring in '93....

MILE HIGH
.482/.362
.479/.401

COORS
.556/.384
.579/.357
.579/.357
.523/.432
.519/.401
.549/.390
.538/.368
.554/.410
.496/.348
.503/.388
.506/.403
.460/.359

Coors field simply provided hitters the biggest advantage in the history of MLB. Whether the team was good, mediocore, or poor offensively, they always retained the home field benefit for hitters. Opposing hitters see the same splits..their totals when visiting Coors, compared to when they are playing Col in their collective ballparks, show the same type of splits. Larry Walkers career splits show the exact same thing at Coors. Add these two facts together, the only possible deduction is that his results are artifically inflated by his home park.

If Frank Thomas hits 500 home runs, does he get into the Hall?

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