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Super Bowl XL Odds

AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
in Sports Talk
Did a quick search looking for super bowl odds, and came across current (7.28.05) odds:

New England Patriots 4/1
Philadelphia Eagles 4/1
Indianapolis Colts 4/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 8/1
Atlanta Falcons 10/1
San Diego Chargers 15/1
Green Bay Packers 12/1
New York Jets 17/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Kansas City Chiefs 17/1
Carolina Panthers 17/1
Baltimore Ravens 12/1
Buffalo Bills 20/1
St. Louis Rams 22/1
Seattle Seahawks 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 10/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 17/1
Dallas Cowboys 15/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40/1
Tennessee Titans 50/1
New Orleans Saints 65/1
Washington Redskins 30/1
Cincinatti Bengals 30/1
New York Giants 40/1
Detroit Lions 40/1
Arizona Cardinals 60/1
Houston Texans 60/1
Cleveland Browns 100/1
Oakland Raiders 20/1
Miami Dolphins 70/1
Chicago Bears 40/1
San Francisco 49ers 150/1

It's wierd to see how much money people are betting on the packers and cowboys. From my limited betting knowledge, I know that odds fluctuate depending on the money flowing either way. Does that account for the drastic difference between Miami's and Cleveland's odds?

Interesting to see these forces at work.

Comments

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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    From my limited knowledge


    yes i agree you have limited knowledge
    Good for you.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    Isn't everyone's knowledge limited? Who knows everything? Are you professing to know everything WP? If you don't know it all, it is limited?

    So which is it WP? Is your knowledge limited or are you omniscient? Are you saying you are a god?
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    Wow you sure edited that quick:

    "finally you are telling me what i knew all along!! "

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    iamthegreatcornholioiamthegreatcornholio Posts: 3,366
    It's best to compare them from one site to another:

    With this jargon +568 means 5.68-1

    Sun 9/11 Odds to win 2006 Superbowl
    09:00 AM 101 New England Patriots +568
    102 Indianapolis Colts +507
    103 Philadelphia Eagles +560
    104 Pittsburgh Steelers +1381
    105 Atlanta Falcons +1485
    106 New York Jets +1831
    107 San Diego Chargers +3032
    108 Buffalo Bills +4746
    109 Denver Broncos +3625
    110 Minnesota Vikings +1718
    111 Jacksonville Jaguars +2923
    112 St. Louis Rams +4817
    113 Kansas City Chiefs +2640
    114 Carolina Panthers +1532
    115 Baltimore Ravens +1474
    116 Cincinnati Bengals +5540
    117 Seattle Seahawks +3361
    118 Green Bay Packers +3032
    119 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6906
    120 Tennessee Titans +11137
    121 New Orleans Saints +6906
    122 Oakland Raiders +5241
    123 Houston Texans +8538
    124 Arizona Cardinals +8963
    125 New York Giants +6255
    126 Dallas Cowboys +3184
    127 Washington Redskins +4034
    128 Chicago Bears +9472
    129 Detroit Lions +3798
    130 Miami Dolphins +8000
    131 Cleveland Browns +25000
    132 San Francisco 49ers +25000

    Considering the parity in professional sports, I don't see how people could pony up the bucks to seriously bet stuff like this. FWIW (odds-wise), I'd take Baltimore and New York (J).
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    well for some of us it is more limited then others like yourself for example if 10 persons were in a room you would be the one with the most limited knowledge.


    or another way to put it is you would be the most stupid.

    sd
    Good for you.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    The Vikings look to be vastly improved this year, even with Moss' departure. If I were a betting man, I think I'd put my dough there.
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    iamthegreatcornholioiamthegreatcornholio Posts: 3,366
    The problem with them is, and God forbid my beloved Falcons too, how often do dome teams win the SB?
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭


    << <i>The problem with them is, and God forbid my beloved Falcons too, how often do dome teams win the SB? >>




    Hmm the Rams in what, 99?

    Wow I just ran down the list of super bowl winners and that's the only one I can find.

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    iamthegreatcornholioiamthegreatcornholio Posts: 3,366
    Yep image

    Generally these teams have held nasty advantages in their domes in terms of noise as well as speed of track. But they don't play well on the road - the Vikings are the worst ATS team on road grass in football - something like 2-20 in the past few years! Invariably they won't get home-field throughout... look at Indy, they cruise through the season, but get "pwned" every year by the Pats.

    At least the Falcons run the ball well so they're not a criple on the road. But they're not a good bet since well if you know who goes down their chances are..........

    Brian
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    I would suspect that the advantage dome teams have at home are reversed (even more so) when the tables are turned.

    It will be another interesting year, that's for sure. Moss in Oakland taking shots at Minny, will the Pats repeat? Can Peyton ever beat new england? Will the Lions finally have 2 healthy WRs on the field?

    Lots of great, young talent that should rule the league this year.

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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,287 ✭✭✭✭✭
    They abbreviated the odds for Dallas to 15 - 1. Real odds are 15,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 - 1.
    Bucs are slighter higher.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    The Eagle odds are 'odds McNabb will choke in the playoffs again'?
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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,287 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interesting because a few months ago the Eagles were 3-1 at most books and 7-2 at some. I guess the thing with Owens moved them up a bit. I don't gamble anymore but I still enjoy looking at the odds because the books are uncannily accurate in their odds forecasting - it's not a science of course, but it is an indicator as to who will win.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    Well a lot of it has to be teams with a ton of fanatical support. Look at the odds for the packers. General consensus is this year they are going to be terrible...no defense, questionable o-line, and yet they are 12/1 favorites, better than the jets and chargers? That has to be an insane amount of fan money coming in swaying the line.
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    iamthegreatcornholioiamthegreatcornholio Posts: 3,366
    It depends on what book, 3-1 is terrible odds. The odds I quoted are among the best. Like I've stated, parity should make one think twice before biting on a team that heavily favored; however, *if* all teams were offered at the same price I would take the Eagles. Here's why, the Eagles are in the not the best team in football, but their division is weak. The powerhouses in the AFC will be killing each other off, while the eagles will have an easier time. Just my 2 cents.

    Axtell, where did you get those odds from? The site I got mine on has GB over 30-1, 12-1 is truly a sucker bet.

    Brian
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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,287 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Noteworthy point about Green Bay. I think though the 12 - 1 might be the books figuring they'll win the division and then in the playoffs with Favre anything can happen. Is there "decent" money wagered on these future bets? - yes. But is there "real" money like you'd see on football Sundays wagered on these future bets? - no. So I don't think there's any real money either way swaying anything here. You might see a little movement like the Eagles line did, but I think these lines will pretty much be set until the opening kickoff. Somebody might (extremely doubtful) come in with say 25 dimes on one team and I don't think the books would even adjust the lines - they'll just sit on the bet. These type of future bets even out for the books over the course of time to where they always windup winning the juice percentage.

    Steve
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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,287 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<< It depends on what book, 3-1 is terrible odds. >>>

    Absolutely right! But the books know that some people will just bet a favorite almost no matter what the odds. If the Eagles were even money, they'd still get action although of course not as much. The books live by the motto "never give a sucker an even break" and 3 - 1, as much as I love the Eagles, I'm guestimating is probably around a 15% - 20% house edge bet - sucker bet for sure.

    Steve
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    Text

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    xbaggypantsxbaggypants Posts: 2,185 ✭✭✭
    I was in Vegas a couple of months ago and took

    Oakland 35-1
    Carolina 18-1
    Jacksonville 18-1
    Seattle 18-1

    My E-Mail Address
    Website
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    iamthegreatcornholioiamthegreatcornholio Posts: 3,366
    Had some more free time on my hands, check this out

    The Odds Axtell quoted from vegas.com has a 46.52% Casino advantage image

    I used
    this calculator
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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,287 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<< The Odds Axtell quoted from vegas.com has a 46.52% Casino advantage >>>

    With that house edge, Axtell's better off playing three card monte on some street corner - LOL.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    heh I wasn't betting, I was just using the first super bowl odds I found.

    Sports betting is about the worst bet in vegas, anyways....I mean the best of the best oddsmakers are at about 55%, so a little better than flipping a coin and deciding.

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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,287 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<< Sports betting is about the worst bet in vegas, anyways....I mean the best of the best oddsmakers are at about 55%, so a little better than flipping a coin and deciding. >>>

    Actually most slots and the wheel of fortune are worse bets. Certain craps bets are worse bets. There are other worse bets such as taking insurance in blackjack. Some of the card games tailored towards the Asian players are worse bets. Betting on horses is worse - much worse. Keno is actually the worst bet and possibly one of the worst sucker bets on the face of the earth. The odds of hitting the super jackpot is in the billions yet it only pays $50,000 - and no one in the history of Vegas has ever even hit it.

    Steve
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