The Big Hurt

jrdolan · July 3, 2005 7:07AM

No, this isn't about our fellow board member with the tongue-in-cheek comments about PSA. This is about the original Big Hurt. Today he hit his 445th career home run. He's 37 years old and has trouble staying off the DL. Can he get 55 more and join that very exclusive 500 HR Club?

Now a broader question: Is his career HOF-worthy? I remember when he was the most feared hitter in the league for a period of years, but he fell on injuries and hard times. If this were his last year, he would end with 450+ HR, 1500+ RBI, .300+ BA. In the days of less bulky ballplayers and fewer HRs, that would have been more than enough. Now? If he gets to 500 HR it will be impossible to keep him out, but if not ... ?

mcholke · July 3, 2005 7:14AM

Good question. I have been thinking about Thomas as well as Bagwell.

Thomas has won two MVP’s but he has never been a solid defender and as you point out has spent most of the last few years injured and playing as a designated hitter.

Jeff Bagwell has grit and team leadership and perhaps the edge over Thomas. Although I think Thomas was certainly more feared during his most productive years. Bagwell will finish with 1500 RBI’s, over 2200 hits, an MVP, and nearly 500 homers and
doubles.

I think the jury is still out on both but both are nearing the end of solid production.

Speaking of first baseman, is Palmeiro a lock with his 500 HRs?

Stone193 · July 3, 2005 7:23AM

JR
I got a boat load of his Bowman RCs!

That's a good question and I was thinking about him a few weeks ago. I think he'll make the 55 HRs if he stays healthy. HOF? Hard to say for sure. Overall, I think he has a great record - over .300 lifetime - has a couple of MVP's, all-star, no gold gloves to my knowledge? Even with 500 HRs, some are retooling their thinking - will there be a time when 500 is not a lock? Also, he's not on a team where he can show something post-season-wise? I think writers like to see guys who have performed in playoffs and WS's.

mike

Cubby · July 3, 2005 7:38AM

"Is Palmeiro a lock with his 500 HR's?"
IMHO, Yes.

Futureman · July 3, 2005 7:57AM

Palmeiro will probably get in because he hit the milestones, but I don't think he's deserving. He got to the milestones, but did it in perhaps the most unremarkable way possible. Did anyone ever think of Palmeiro as one of the top 5 players in the game. Sure he was consistent, but was never spectacular. Yes, he had several 40+ HR seasons, but in this era, I don't know that it's really all that impessive. He might have better totals compared to Thomas, but he was never as dominant. Thomas was incredible in his back-to-back MVP seasons. To my knowledge, neither Palmeiro nor Thomas have been big self-promoters, and yet I think Thomas is thought by most (outside of Baltimore and Texas) to be a better hitter. Palmeiro will get in, but I don't think he's ever been all that impressive.

Southerncards · July 3, 2005 8:35AM

Raffy has been steady and consistant, something Thomas has not due to injuries. Palmeiro has never been flashy, just a steady day in/day out ballplayer. He deserves in.

Thomas will hit 500 hr's but in my mind, doesnt qualify as HOF material.

Now as far as our own DBH, there's an entirely different hall of fame that he belongs in.

denwd1 · July 3, 2005 8:38AM

frank thomas should be a first ballot hall of famer.the minus for thomas is that he has been a DH for aout the last 6 years. thomas has had lots of injuries the last few years and thats hurts.his first 8 years were dominate(2 mvp awards) and add the longevity and i thinkhe's a 1st ballot guy. also thomas lost the mvp award to the cheater giambi in 2000.that would have given him 3.i unlike some others would embrace more players joining the hall, santo,dom dimaggio,gil hodges,dale murphy,joe torre,mattingly all were great players and quality guys. why not? look who's alrerady in. also,the watered down the hall argument is just plain stupid.

NickM · July 3, 2005 8:49AM

Palmeiro reaches 3000 hits this month. He's a lock.
I think Thomas will reach 500 HR, and I expect him to be elected to the Hall as well - for much of the 1990s he was quite possibly the best hitter in baseball.

I'll take the opportunity to promote the best player no one talks about:
Craig Biggio for the Hall of Fame

Nick

bobbybakeriv · July 3, 2005 8:54AM

Palmeiro is an absolute LOCK. No doubt. 500 HRs and 3000 hits can not be denied.

Griffins · July 3, 2005 8:56AM

I think Palmeiro will make it for sure. Biggio certainly should, and if Thomas gets 500 HR to go with his 2 MVP's should as well. But in this era 500 hr's shouldn't be the lock it once was- had McGriff done it would he be a HOFer? No way. 300 wins is a lock, but Neikro and Sutton certainly pushed the limits of that. I'd like to see the HOF a lot more selective, selecting the players that were the top in the years they played, and not just those that stayed injury free for 18 years.
What numbers would pre '61 players have with 8 extra games a year? Or not taking prime years out to fight during WW2 and Korea?

lostdart58 · July 3, 2005 8:59AM

How could anyone say that Palmiero is not a lock?? ..........Pushing 575 HR and 3000hits!!!.....

..........compare Palmiero with Eddie Murray............................and the media did not even like Eddie Murray!!

jrdolan · July 3, 2005 9:52AM

Stone, I'm hoping '90 Leaf is THE Frank Thomas rookie card, come 500-HR time.

Griffins, if 300 wins is a lock, what about poor Bert Blyleven?

Somebody mentioned "cheater Giambi." Let's not forget that Palmeiro takes, uh, "performance-enhancing" supplements, too. In fact, he's a spokesman!

CdnOsfan · July 3, 2005 9:52AM

I know that everyone is entitled to their opinion, but people, how can you deny Palmeiro just because he did not get a lot of attention from the media? Ya know what? He quietly played the game the way it was supposed to be played and respected the game without making an ass of himself/drawing attention to himself. He will be in the 3000 hit club in a couple weeks and may get 600 home runs.
Don't mention Canseco's unsubstantiated steroid allegations, Palmeiro certainly NEVER looked like a roid user like Canseco, McGwire, Sosa etc. Viagara yes, but I don't believe roids. If you or I had ED, we would probably use Viagara too, bravo to him for not being afraid to admit it! I don't care if there were a lot of great first baseman during his time, not many will finish with his #'s!

JusttheFacts · July 3, 2005 9:52AM

Here are top 12 all-time leaders in slugging percentage:

1. Babe Ruth2. Ted Williams3. Lou Gehrig4. Barry Bonds5. Jimmy Foxx6. Hank Greenberg7. Manny Ramirez8. Mark McGwire9. Joe DiMaggio10. Rogers Hornsby11. Alex Rodriguez12. FRANK THOMAS OK, you're saying he's a slugger, but can he get on base. The top 12 all-time in on base percentage:

1. Ted Williams2. Babe Ruth3. Barry Bonds4. Lou Gehrig5. FRANK THOMAS6. Jimmie Foxx7. Ty Cobb8. Rogers Hornsby9. Mickey Mantle10. Edgar Martinez11. Jesse Burkett12. Tris Speaker The only six names on both lists:

Williams
Ruth
Bonds
Gehrig
Foxx
THOMAS

Yes, he was atrocious in the field and spent most of his time as a DH. Yes he was injured several times later in his career. But when you look at his hitting stats, he is one of the greatest hitters for both power and reaching base. He should be in (and easily) even if his career ended today. But given that he has never been a media darling (and much of that is his own fault), it might take several years. Of course, if he does reach 500 HR and/or the White Sox make the playoffs this year and Frank has a monster playoff run culminating in the White Sox first pennant in 46 years and first World Series championship in 88 years, then he's in for sure on the first ballot.

joestalin · July 3, 2005 10:16AM

I think the fact that he still has those numbers despite huge chunks of his career on the DL makes him more of a canidate for the hall, but
he will absolute have to have 500 homers and be a career .300 hitter. It scary to think what this guy could of done if he played as
many games as Raffy!

JS

Stone193 · July 3, 2005 11:15AM

<< <i>Stone, I'm hoping '90 Leaf is THE Frank Thomas rookie card, come 500-HR time. >>

John
The 90L is the "premier" card to have for the HOF collector - if he winds up in.

Back during the "bulk" buying days, a guy gave me 250 of them at 25 cents per - they were booking at 2 bucks at the time.

As was just said, 300 wins is not an automatic - some guys have to wait - e.g. Sutton if memory serves.

Now, with the steroid issue and some feelin the ball was "juiced"/changed, and guys just getting bigger and healthier, it may turn out that 500 HRs won't be a lock - a guy may still have to wait. Personally, in the big picture, and ruling out steroids, 500 HRs should always be a lock.

Having said that, 3000/500 should always be a first opportunity "lock" IMO.

mike

jrdolan · July 3, 2005 12:21PM

I don't know if anybody has ever mentioned Big Frank and the "S" word in the same sentence, but "bulk" is certainly a good word for Thomas and I doubt he came by it dishonestly. He was ALWAYS bulky. No sudden muscle-up, followed by bushels of HRs, followed by a sudden weight loss when the steroid rules started. Frank has been consistently a hefty horse, as far as I can recall.

Talk of "bulk buying" and steroids made me think about that. 250 copies of Big Hurt's rookie, eh? Whatcha gonna do with all those gumballs, Popeye?

Juiced ball vs. dead ball, today's muscle-bound supermen vs. yesteryear's relatively small players (there were big guys, like Babe, but the percentage of them was less). Discount the modern HRs by 25% or whatever if you want, but 500 of 'em is still a considerable achievement.

Axtell · July 3, 2005 12:51PM

It's going to be interesting to see how the steroid era affects HoF voting.

I'm not sure a single faceted player like Thomas is worthy. If you put Thomas in for being a DH power hitter, do you put Edgar Martinez in for being a phenomenal DH for batting average?

MorrellMan · July 3, 2005 1:24PM

<< <i>It's going to be interesting to see how the steroid era affects HoF voting. >>

I don't mean to jack this thread, and maybe I'm not, but I think HOF voting in the future will consider the boosted HR production of the Balco era the same way they look at the lowered ERAs of the raised mound era, the uncertain stats of the war era and the expanded pitching stats of the 19th century workhorse, not to mention comparing deadball to rabbit ball. Steroids use is just gonna be another statistical burp. Just my opinion.

mcastaldi · July 3, 2005 1:47PM

I think Thomas should be in the HOF, less because of the 500 HR - but more because for a 4-5 year period he was simply the dominant hitter in the AL and he achieved. And if you consider that he hit 500 HR in spite of all the injuries. He's lost the majority of two full seasons. And yet he's still managed to post a 162-game average of -
.308 37HR. . .121RBI. . . .429 OBP. . .110 runs

As someone else said, if this is what he's put up despite losing two full seasons imagine what he could do with a fully healthy career. I think Thomas and his numbers are a good example of what Mattingly could have been with 2-3 more healthy years. The difference is that Thomas achieved more than Mattingly could.

I'm sure Biggio will be elected if he gets to 3000 hits. . .but could you ever consider him a dominant player?

Mike

DeutscherGeist · July 3, 2005 1:49PM

The Palmeiro question has been dealt with on the SPORTS TALK BOARD. Go there right now and check it out. Its still being added to.

Frank Thomas was the best slugging first baseman for 1990's. He carried the torch for being the best slugger even for a very significant stretch in the 1990's. He and Griffey were the best. The only knock on Thomas was his defense--nothing like an Olerud, McGwire or Mattingly. However, he was so good offensively, that he can be forgiven. He not only hit HRs and Doubles, he had a very high OBP and a whole lot of plate discipline. He would take Walks and hit singles. He was the ultimate hitting machine, walking machine, and slugging machine. He was not a power hitter that struck out a lot. His BA was very high.

He is in the HOF with what he has. Scratching and crawling to 500 homers is not going to make me think any more of him. What is impressive about scratching, crawling, being mediocre on the way to 500 HR? Its just a nice round number and looks good, but you have to check the substance behind it too.

500 HR for Thomas means nothing. The fact that he can walk down the street in the early 90's and say he was the best player in baseball means more than scratching and crawling for a longevity number.

denwd1 · July 3, 2005 2:02PM

IMO biggio is a first ballot hall of famer.best lead off guy in the NL for the last decade. team player. why would anyone doubt his credentials?

Axtell · July 3, 2005 2:05PM

Frank Thomas doesn't make the hall without being at 500 HRs.

That's the only reason he continues to play.

Stone193 · July 3, 2005 2:09PM

Here are two of my favorite Thomas cards: the first is the UD SP4 from the movie Mr. Baseball and the 2nd is from the 92UD Homerun Heroes subset - when this card was hot it set kids back about 20-25 bucks!

mike

Skinpinch · July 3, 2005 2:10PM

DeutscherGeist, the thread has stopped meaningful exchanges, but the first part paints the picture pretty clear on Palmeiro. No need to retype all that stuff. There is another post about John, blyleven, and Kaat, and their resumes are virtually identical to Palmeiro's.

DeutscherGeist is exactly right on Thomas. People get caught up on these round numbers, or clubs. Clubs are really nothing excpet for everything falling in place at the right time. They also get caught up on round numbers. So a guy with 498 home runs is questionable, and a guy with 501 is automatic?

Thomas was the absolute best hitter in the game for a good five years and that is an extremely difficult thing to accomplish. Plus he was also very good or excellent many other years too. There are far more accurate measures than total Hits or Home Runs.

At one time, as we all remember, Thomas's leaf rookie was on fire. We know it will never reach those heights. But, it is becoming painfully obvious that most fans think in the narrow terms of just round numbers and clubs, so if he does reach his 500 home runs he will legitimize his stature in the eyes of a lot more of the average fans. Plus some people do collect those milestone clubs regardlesss.

Plus, it is looking like he will have the national stage this year in October, and that should help the average Joe, who only tunes in for the playoffs, possibly rekindle some desire to take another look at the big hurt.

Stone193 · July 3, 2005 2:18PM

skin
Well put along with DG - altho I am a fan of some "longevity" players and their accomplishments, I concur on Thomas. In the early 90s, Thomas was one of the focal points of card companies. 1993 Leaf featured subsets on the fortitude of Thomas. He was considered one of the "impact" players in sets. If one wanted to even try to collect everything there is on the guy, it would set you back some serious dough!

mike

kuhlmann · July 3, 2005 2:34PM

I think raffy is a lock, just watching sportscenter and some o's games this past week, they always mention him as a future HOF. That kind of exposure will get him in, plus his numbers are HOF worthy.

as for Big Frank, maybe all those injuries will keep him out? even if he hits 500 hr?

NickM · July 3, 2005 2:40PM

Griffins - since you don't feel McGriff should be a HOFer, how did you feel about Willie Stargell's election?

Nick

denwd1 · July 3, 2005 2:42PM

at their peak would anyone really rather have palmeiro over frank thomas?

WinPitcher · July 3, 2005 2:49PM

the hall is full of players that did not dominate. the hall is reserved for those players that over time (in some cases) produced stats that make them worthy. if one was to keep only the players that truly dominated the game we would have maybe 30 players in there. the game of baseball constantly evolves yet never changes. if that makes sense.

steve d

DeutscherGeist · July 3, 2005 4:42PM

In the real scheme of things and since this is a thread for SPORTS CARDS, I would agree that if Thomas joins the 500 HR club, then his card prices will show more movement. But does that make him better? Not in my book. He has already proven himself and I enjoy collecting his cards. I used to buy them at $50 a pop (1990 Leaf) raw 10 years ago. Now a PSA 9 is dirt cheap $15?

While we are on the topic, could we expect the PSA 9 1990 Leaf RC to garner $50 once he does join the CLUB? I just don't think that card is as mass produced as some other modern stuff. Aren't there more Griffey 1989 Upper Deck out there? A pop report will help if any want to contribute.

DeutscherGeist · July 3, 2005 4:48PM

Stone,

I really like that Thomas/Selleck card. I never owned one before, but I think its time I look for one. Doesn't Tom Selleck remind you of Don Mattingly in that photo?

Growing up as a Mattingly fan, I also liked Tom Selleck movies. They both had that signature moustache--it made them look cool I thought as a kid.

Stone193 · July 3, 2005 5:01PM

I liked the stache thing also. BTW, Mr. Baseball was a fun movie for those who have never seen it. I also have a "hole" in my swing! But, it's on the golf course!!!

DG
On the 90L Thomas - I'm thinking at one point the card was in the 100 buck range graded a 9? Even when he goes into the hall, it just seems that anyone who wants one, already does.

But, I may just have to go thru the 90Bs and see if I can pick out a 10 to submit?

He was so hot around 1992 - the HH8 - homerun UD card was on every kids wantlist - along with the Jordan SP baseball card!

I kind of miss those days - running around town like a madman with my son looking for all the hot cards.

mike

Axtell · July 3, 2005 5:03PM

<< <i>

While we are on the topic, could we expect the PSA 9 1990 Leaf RC to garner $50 once he does join the CLUB? I just don't think that card is as mass produced as some other modern stuff. Aren't there more Griffey 1989 Upper Deck out there? A pop report will help if any want to contribute. >>

Ken Griffey is 100 times the player that Thomas ever was....Griffey dominated the 90s like no other player has a decade, and the fact he was as nice a guy off the field as he was feared on it meant he was immensely popular. The fact that Griffey wasn't one dimensional (power hitter) and excelled at every facet of the game makes him much more popular too.

Look at the prices the mass produced 89 UD griffey gets compared to any other card of that era, and you'll see just how truly popular he is.

Pop reports won't show you anything other than there are more Griffeys than Thomas cards (as there should be, since his demand is so much higher).

DaBigHurt · July 4, 2005 1:26AM

Why should I give a rats rear-end if Frank Thomas was unfriendly with the media? From what I've seen, the numbers and the decade of dominance, he's a HOFer.

jrdolan · July 4, 2005 1:47AM

If you look at just the PSA pop report, there are 4x as many 89UD Griffeys as 90L Thomases. God knows how many bazillions are in BGS / BCCG holders, and still ungraded is another story entirely. But let's just look at PSA for now.

1989UD Griffey -- total graded 48,827 -- 15,221 PSA 9 -- 1,072 PSA 10
1990L Thomas -- total graded 11,949 -- 7,435 PSA 9 -- 1,216 PSA 10

The total graded figures are no surprise. Everybody knows 90 Leaf was relatively "limited," and enough Griffey UD rookies were printed to wallpaper a mansion. But I would not have guessed there are fewer UD Griffeys in PSA 10 than Leaf Thomas. Junior is more of a condition rarity in top grade, clearly.

No question the number of collectors who want the 1,072 gem mint Griffeys is much higher than those who want the 1,216 gem mint Thomases. Junior's place in the HOF is already assured and he probably won't reach any more milestones. The Big Hurt still has 500 and the Hall to shoot for (and post-season exposure), so maybe his cards will see some movement again. If he can stay off the DL.

ajw · July 4, 2005 2:23AM

<< <i>
Griffey dominated the 90s like no other player has a decade >>

Barry Bonds says "hi." So do Willie Mays and Mike Schmidt.

helionaut · July 4, 2005 2:28AM

As Frank is my favorite current player, and has been since I started following ball again in 1991, I admit to being biased, but in looking at all the arguments made in favor of other recent electees who hadn't hit any major milestones (Sandberg, Puckett, Carter, etc.) I must say that he's a lock. He was the best hitter of the 90s overall, certainly in the AL if not all of MLB. From August 1990 through 2000, he had consistency at such a high level that it is really kind of funny to think that there is a debate. And even though he's been injured a lot the last few years, it's not the nick-and-cut kind. In 1999, he lost the last 20 games of the season to a heel injury that had been plaguing him all year. His manager basically called him a crybaby for not playing through pain, but offseason surgery yielded a bone spur the size of a golf ball taken off his heel. In 2001 he started out stronger than usual for the early season, but tore a muscle in his arm. He played another week or so but it was clearly affecting him. Again he was criticized for not playing through the pain. Turns out the tear was extreme and he could've been permanently damaged with much more wear. Last year and this year it looks like carrying 270 pounds for so long is finally getting to him. But each time he's come back strong. In 2000 he finished second in MVP voting with probably his 2nd best overall year. In 2002, his BA was 60 points below his career average as he seemed to have lost the edge umpires used to give him about the strikezone, and he finished with over 100 Ks for only the second time in his career. In 2003 he added more power and finished with his second highest homer total. This year, he's hit 9 home runs in 63 at-bats. Nine. He's still rehabbing and I was wondering if there would be room for him with the Sox being as hot as they are without him, but he is forcing himself in there, hardly scratching and crawling. His age and injuries have not resulted in diminished capacity (though his BA seems stuck below .280), but they've prevented him from playing at all, and I don't think that should be held against him too much.

The knock against him is that he couldn't play defense and was relegated to DH. Yet the stats for defense, such as they are, don't seem to bear that out. In 971 games at first from 1990-2004 his fielding percentage is .991. The league fielding percentage is .993, the matter of a few plays better over 15 years. And his range factor is actually higher, 8.66 to 8.24. So is he Don Mattingly out there? No, but he is a lot closer to Don than he is to Dick Stuart. And besides, the fact is he wanted to play the field, at least for much of the 90s. Part of the disagreement he's had with managers is from them moving him around and failing to commit him to the field or DH, especially when they didn't have a Paul Konerko or Carlos Lee who could play and hit well enough to keep him off the field. And that lack of security in a position could affect anyone.

All in all, I really think there is so little room for debate about his candidacy that it's a non-issue. While people get wrapped up in the last 5 years, his injuries, his position, and his attitude, the fact is that he is one of the 3 premier hitters of the last 20 years, competent in the field, and clear of the steroid scandal. If not for a late surge in 2000 by Giambi and the A's, Frank would be a 3-time MVP and no one would even ask the question. He's not hanging around, padding numbers, Carlton-like, but attemtpting to continue to contribute, which he does mightily when he has the chance. A HOF career is a long one, and it's easy to focus on whatever period you're in at the time and use that as the gauge. That's why there's a 5 year interval before election. Is Frank a HOFer? Without doubt.

mcastaldi · July 4, 2005 8:04AM

denwd1> "IMO biggio is a first ballot hall of famer.best lead off guy in the NL for the last decade. team player. why would anyone doubt his credentials?"

It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that Biggio was never a dominant player at his position. If he gets in, it will be because he got to 3000 hits.

Mike

NickM · July 4, 2005 9:00AM

Biggio was never dominant, just unspectacularly excellent for well over a decade at two of the toughest positions (C and 2B).

He was the NL's best second baseman for the 1990s.

7-time All-Star, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, 4 Gold Glove Awards, career totals that are already eye-popping (13th in doubles, 28th in runs, 33rd in times on base, modern-day record for HBP, top 100 in many other categories, and top 50 in several (plus 51st in hits, 2 hits away from top 50)).

In doubles, runs, and times on base, everybody ahead of Biggio all-time is either in the HOF, is active or recently retired and a shoo-in for first ballot election, or is Pete Rose.

Nick

jrdolan · July 4, 2005 9:13AM

I admire Craig Biggio's accomplishments, especially since most of his career was spent a catcher or 2nd baseman. In order to reach 3,000 hits (he's 278 away), he'd have to continue the fine year he's having at age 39 and THEN have another season and a half or two seasons of solid, injury-free production. I hope he does it, but it might be too much to ask. If he breaks down physically and can't play every day, is he the kind of player who would hang around for several years as a part-timer and pinch-hitter?

Look at Julio Franco, hitting .280 at age 46! (He's more than 500 hits away from 3,000, so forget it)

DaBigHurt · July 4, 2005 9:53AM

Before we get carried away with Biggio being a catcher, let's keep in mind he's played in the equivalent of two and a half seasons (427 games) at catcher.

The Big Hurt

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