Are 75 Topps Baseball Dead ?

addicted2slabbing · December 12, 2004 5:25AM

I am asking this after this auctions ending price. What am I missing here. Nearly 70 cards. A dozen 9s (all commons) so that leaves 55 or so 8's. A few of the 8's are stars (Yaz,Seaver,Stargell) and a couple lesser names. The $4 per card that this breaks down to be seems awfully low for 8's and 9's with a few stars tossed in.
Any thoughts ?
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=5144893011&ssPageName=STRK:MESE:IT[L=75 Topps Lot]

JonB · December 12, 2004 5:50AM

Link

Virtualizard · December 12, 2004 5:56AM

They are pretty much dead, but I don't see how you came up with $4 per card. The auction has a reserve that hasn't been met and a BIN of $550. My guess is the reserve is close to the BIN. Using $550, that's $8.08 per card. Definitely not out of line, inluding stars.

In fact, I know quite a bit about this. I'm breaking up a '75 set myself, and about an hour ago offered 48 cards (including some stars and 9 PSA 9s) for $6.83 per card to someone that had requested a price - haven't heard back from him yet, though.

JEB.

BugOnTheRug · December 12, 2004 6:07AM

addict,

1) shipping a bit high.
2) no scans - yeah, I know, send an email but folks want to see scans. The few $'s to do this may have helped quite a bit IMO.
3) nearing Christmas/New Years.
4) 75 are down $-wise. Quite popular but supply is there too. (I can remember less than 2 years ago a pop of 4 psa 9 mccoveys and they were selling around $200 at that time..........what's the pop now?!?!?
5. One answer to your question with another question: Why is it a nicely centered 1984D Mattingly psa 8 sells for $15 and a raw, O/C example recently sold for $31?

BOTR

addicted2slabbing · December 12, 2004 6:14AM

Virtual,
I had figured $4 per card at the ending price. I understand reserve not met, but was just looking at what the bidding was more or less. As someone stated, I too see the holidays having lots to do with everything being lower all across the board. I Thank You all for the help, just not sure where and what type of set I want to start on.

koby · December 12, 2004 7:17AM

Looks like not very many people are chasing after those cards these days. The commons are not worth sending in anymore even if you are confident you will get all PSA 9s.

jrdolan · December 12, 2004 7:24AM

I wandered across that auction and passed because there were no scans. I would have paused longer and thought harder if there had been scans of the most valuable cards. 'Cause there are 8's that are almost 7's, and then there are 8's that are almost 9's. I like to make a judgment.

I agree that the market has softened, and SMR has not yet reflected that. #260 Bench PSA 9 books for $250, but in real life it sells for about $150.

Ullr · December 12, 2004 8:17AM

This auction was for 461 PSA8's and ended at just $3.60 per card after shipping.
I would have to say that 8's are most definitley dead.
Collectors have seen the populations climb. And, I think they sense, that there seems to be alot of quality cards still ungraded. The $5 grading specials continue to see more cards graded.

RedHeart54 · December 12, 2004 9:51AM

The prices these days for PSA 8 Brett rookies say it all. Never thought I'd see the day they went UNDER $100!

Virtualizard · December 12, 2004 10:08AM

<< The prices these days for PSA 8 Brett rookies say it all. Never thought I'd see the day they went UNDER $100! >>

I guess I was lucky last week!

Sold for more than I paid for it 2 years ago!

JEB.

DataDriven05 · December 12, 2004 10:32AM

As the person who bought your Brett, and after reading this post, I had to check some things out. Of the 5 that sold 3 went for the same price (low $120s) and 2 went in the $90s. Of the ones that went in the 90s, one of them didn't look like an 8 in the scan and the other had an opening bid of $85 coupled with no PayPal (DSL). Those higher opening bid auctions never seem to do as well, at least from what I've seen. Either way I probably over paid by $10-13, nothing to lose sleep over, and you seemed like a safe bet in terms of a smooth transaction.

detroitfan2 · December 12, 2004 10:51AM

Interesting topic. I actually was amazed at the price of this auction:

1975 mini psa lot

And these are for the minis. I'm not an expert, but under $4 per card seems like a GREAT deal.

Maybe it's a buyer's market. Did anyone look closely at the prices from the Leland's auction for PSA cards?

A 1956 Topps master set, all PSA graded, with a SMR of over $30,000, sold for under $20,000.

sagard · December 12, 2004 3:10PM

<< As the person who bought your Brett, and after reading this post, I had to check some things out. Of the 5 that sold 3 went for the same price (low $120s) and 2 went in the $90s. Of the ones that went in the 90s, one of them didn't look like an 8 in the scan and the other had an opening bid of $85 coupled with no PayPal (DSL). Those higher opening bid auctions never seem to do as well, at least from what I've seen. Either way I probably over paid by $10-13, nothing to lose sleep over, and you seemed like a safe bet in terms of a smooth transaction. >>

This is rock solid reasoning. No reason to sweat a few bucks over the Brett RC. You received a quality card and will undoubtably receive it.

packCollector · December 12, 2004 10:45PM

detroitfan, speaking of that 56 master set in lelands. I collect this set and took a look at it. the set actually sold for $23,500 because lelands changes 17.5% juice. Their shipping and handling is probable $200 on that item bringing it to $23,700. let's say $30k for smr. that breaks down to 79% of smr. not to far out of line for a 7/8 set. I broke down the set a little and many of the stars (mantle, aaron , williams, etc) were in psa 8. Almost all of the tough cards including teams and low pops were in psa 7 or less. I think that was the big difference in this set and sets that would get closer to smr. many cards in that set can be had less than smr but the premiums on some of the teams and low pops in psa 8 even it out and the set goes around smr or higher complete in psa 8.

still a great set which most would not mind owning but I do not think the price was soft given the distribution of the grades.

jimtb · December 12, 2004 10:58PM

I was working on the 75 minis for awhile. Personally, I'd be apprehensive about buying a group without being able to see the individual cards. There are a lot of ugly 8's out there. Fish eyes and print marks seem to be everywhere on 8's. Anyone else agree?

calleocho · December 12, 2004 11:19PM

it might be a good time to buy ...how much lower than 4 bucks per cards can they get?

Pittfan · December 13, 2004 1:13AM

God, I can remeber selling a Skip Lockwood common PSA 8 for $45 dollars.

helionaut · December 13, 2004 1:46AM

This set is very segmented for 8s. I would say it's a classic model of the 80/20 rule, where 80% of the cards in the set command 20% of the value, and vice versa. The common cards are really dead, but many still bring decent dollars. There are lots of cards going for under grading fee in 8, even cards that were formerly tough and popular enough to command some premium, like Cookie Rojas, Ron Santo, the MVP subset, etc. Even 9s are dropping, like $16 for a Fergie Jenkins (wish I'd seen that one). But there are enough new people working on it that you can never be sure what won't bring some unusual results. Dave Parker for $20, $11 for a Royals team card, even $39 for a Reggie Jackson, the highest I've ever seen. A #400 Dick Allen card is over $17 with some time to go. This is a tough card to find on ebay, I think only 2 or 3 showing up in the past year. A McEnaney or a Tanana will still bring $25 and up. Brett rookies are down somewhat, but that's not unusual. In the almost 3 years I've been building this set, there's been at least 3 "troughs" in the Brett market (and Yount and Ryan and the other high-weight cards) where they've gone down as low as $75-80 briefly. That they've been selling for $130-140 is something of an anomaly, too. Usually they go $110-120. But Carter and Rice rookies are still robust. I regret not buying a Rice when they were $15, now they routinely go for $35-40, I guess since people think he's Hall-bound.

What's intersting is the number of large lots showing up. In recent weeks we've seen:
1) 170 9s for $4100 (pretty bold pricing)
2) 461 8s including stars and a few tough singles for $1550 (pretty soft pricing, considering it's more than 2/3 of a set)
3) 21 9s and 189 8s including stars for $1400 (pretty median pricing)
4) 80 9s today starting at $650 with a $1000 BIN (I'm real tempted to ring this one up myself, someone will get a real deal here)
Several lots of 20-50 8s for $5 or less per card

No complete set sales that I know of, but the price of assembly of an 8+ set is surely lower now than ever. I've started adding and upgrading 9s since they are often only a few dollars more than 8s I need. I've started aiming at a 8.05 GPA, which should be attainable under my target price.

The bottom line is that what's common is real common and cheap, but there is plenty of action still on this watershed set. Most of the high rollers have moved up to 9s and 10s exclusively, and while the days of the $50 common 8 may be gone, there will be no $4 Tananas in the foreseeable future.

RedHeart54 · December 13, 2004 10:31AM

One of many 1975 mini boxes this guy had for auction.

Is this why. perhaps, that '75 prices have decreased? Too much unopened product?

SOM · December 13, 2004 11:22AM

That guy has been NARU'd. Those '75 mini boxes may have never existed.

Buccaneer · December 13, 2004 11:58AM

<< I'm not an expert, but under $4 per card seems like a GREAT deal. >>

This brings up a related thought that I have been thinking about lately: What constitute a GREAT deal? Is it because we just purchased something much below book? I bought a bunch of stuff from Mick at about 50% below book and some cards for my sets at about the same price. Are these really great deals or......perhaps those are the true, realistic prices now? There are some here believe that for many (not all) cards, the price guides are purposely over-inflated. So are we getting great deals or are we simply paying what the market will bear?

WinPitcher · December 13, 2004 11:15PM

book prices have always been just that book prices, u can't sell or buy it from the book. whenever you buy a card the only thing that matters is if you are comfortable with the price. same thing goes for when your selling. are you happy with the price? remm this most important fact. not many hobbys allow for such a liquid market.
yet at the same time one can't just cash out as the card market is not an orderly one.

collect for fun, never as an investment in that way you will never lose.

investors are needed too in this hobby as they keep material for the future.

augustaman · December 14, 2004 3:35AM

If anyone would like to jump on the current "down trend" of
1975 cards, I am looking to sell a nice starter lot of PSA MINT 9
cards before Christmas. At well under $15 each, the entire lot
of 35 different cards is only $499 delivered. Anyone interested
can just e-mail or PM me. Thanks.

fsjeter · December 14, 2004 8:45AM

The bottom line seems to be that there is no shortage of high grade '75's available. SMR has definately not caught up to current selling prices. I can't remember the last time I saw a common sell for anywhere near $30.00. I've been picking up PSA 9 singles here and there for about 7 months and the prices are closer to $10 to $15 on average. I just picked up a PSA 9 #560 Tony Perez (SMR $80.00) for $33 delvd. I still probably paid too much but I can live with that. It is one of the most collected sets on the registry so the demand is there, the supply has far surpassed the demand. Buyers can be picky. Just my $0.02!!

Scott

Wabittwax · December 14, 2004 9:31AM

<< book prices have always been just that book prices, u can't sell or buy it from the book. >>

I actually don't use a SMR or a Beckett. I use closing Ebay prices to determine what I will pay for a card. The only exception is if a pick up some newer rare stuff in a package deal at a show, then I need a Beckett to know what I'm looking at. I just read the SMR for the articles, not the pictures.

detroitfan2 · December 14, 2004 10:52AM

This brings up a related thought that I have been thinking about lately: What constitute a GREAT deal? Is it because we just purchased something much below book?

This is an excellent question, really. My original statement about PSA 8 1975 minis going for less than $4 per card being a GREAT deal was mostly based on the fact that I still have this "belief" that any fairly desirable card in a PSA holder for a less than 2/3 the grading fee alone is a good deal. For example, I recently purchased a 1955 common in PSA 6 for $5 (including shipping). To me, that's a great deal.

Nonetheless, it is an outstanding question.

By the way, I consider this to be a great deal fenway, especially given this: yankee.

SOM · December 14, 2004 2:54PM

PSA will always lag behind the market in their SMR prices. How could they do otherwise and maintain a clear conscience?

After all, they seduce us with Registry grading specials, which tremendously increase the supply of graded cards, especially the commons. As the supply increases, you know what happens to prices. And PSA would dare report those plummeting prices in their own SMR?

Not at the expense of their next grading special, that's for sure.

pandrews · December 14, 2004 4:18PM

a few days ago i picked up a mini #586 Tim McCarver PSA 8 and and #595 Joe Niekro PSA 8 for $2.25 each+$3.00shipping, so a total of $7.50 for the two..

Vargha · December 15, 2004 1:03AM

Anyone seen Kurt's set recently? He just upgraded to a bunch of PSA 10 1/1's and only has 5 cards that are PSA 8. It's quite an accomplishment. One he'll take a bath on should he ever sell, but an amazing feat nonetheless.

carew4me · December 15, 2004 1:40AM

One he'll take a bath on should he ever sell, but an amazing feat nonetheless.

Agreed, Only build a high-end 70's+ set for the love of it. Expect to lose money. Sometimes lots of money.

NickM · December 15, 2004 3:37AM

They're not dead. They are merely oversupplied currently. PSA 8 and above populations on many of the common cards have doubled in the past year, and there aren't enough people collecting the set to absorb those cards at the prior prices.

Nick

Vargha · December 15, 2004 4:10AM

Nick is right. The market is harsh, but it doesn't play favorites. Too bad most people never understood the P/Q curves in Econ. 101 to the point where they applied it to everyday life.

marz · December 19, 2004 2:47PM

<< Nick is right. The market is harsh, but it doesn't play favorites. Too bad most people never understood the P/Q curves in Econ. 101 to the point where they applied it to everyday life. >>

like Black-Scholes options pricing model ?

MiniMaster · December 23, 2004 4:11PM

Yes I got a great deal on that lot. Could not pass it up even though I already had all of them in my #1 set registry, I was able to load up my #3 set. Lowest priced lot I ever bought! But Pete's a great guy and I've been helping him out with his PSA 8 75 Mini Set on the Registry whenever I've been able to. I've made some trades with others that were willing to make trades within the 75 mini set registry. It's been fun.

I'm sure most Baseball card sets of this era have there ups and downs. I would say this one is sleeping for the winter or for a period of time until another couple of collectors come around like I did. I started in June of this year and have reached a GPA of 8.73 with 100% completion on a set that has a vast number of cards that have very low populations. It's been a rather exciting ride so far

I've had quite a few lucky breaks with a few lots offered to me that yielded some exceptional cards. I have also enjoyed the decline in prices for these cards. When I started they were costing me a little more. Recently I was able to pick up a PSA 9 nq (1/1) for as low as $10.50, which I'll take any chance I can get

No matter what anyone says about this Mini set it won't change my thoughts on it. There have only been a third of the number of graded 75 Topps Mini's as it's 75 Topps Regular Card. There maybe plenty of PSA 8's for many of them. But there are a vast number of low pop PSA 8's still in it and for most of the set to find in PSA 9 the pop's are low. I think I have approx. 25 or so 1/1's and only 5 of them are PSA 10's the rest 9's. This set has approx. 43 cards (last time I checked) where PSA 8 is the highest card. I actually submitted the first and only 2 PSA 8's of Claudell Washington #647. Most recently when opening a box of wax packs I finally found a PSA 8 of #31 Dave Rader only the 2nd on pop report none higher. If you ever collected Mini's these and many other cards in the set are almost always off center. These truely are just a few of the extremely rare cards in this set. This Mini Set is a "Sleeping Giant" and if other collector's aren't recognizing this fact then it's open season for me : ) I believe a high end 75 Topps Mini set is one of the last frontiers of vintage baseball card collecting

jimtb · December 23, 2004 11:36PM

Hey Mini Master,
I'm curently #8 on the registry for mini's with a lousy 17%. I haven't touched the set in about a year. At the time, prices were high, and I was seeing a lot of real ugly 8's - lots of fisheyes, printmarks, and OC's. It is truly my all time favorite set. It was the first set that I built as a kid (Mini's were sold in Detroit where I grew up). It may be time for me to jump back in!
Jim

Pittfan · December 24, 2004 1:38AM

Wouldn't it be nice if a 75 wax box sold for as much as a 75 mini box. It seems like there is a ton of 75 minis available going for around $1500. The last 75 regular was box that sold on mastronet sold for over $3000.

MiniMaster · December 24, 2004 6:45AM

Jim,

If your interested in getting your graded 75 Mini set up the list I believe I'm your #1 source to get that accomplished. e-mail me at tab007ebb@aol.com

I too loved these cards as a kid and I grew up in California as you know if you read my Set Registry info on my #1 set

Hope to hear from you Jim.

Pittfan:

I was lucky enough to pick up a 75 Mini wax box for $1,260 on ebay recently. It yeilded some pretty special cards

One was a PSA 8 #31 Dave Rader! I can't believe they are getting $3,000 for the 75 Topps Regular box? The cards don't sell for more than the Mini's? Populations of the Regular's are much higher than the Mini's? Just because there aren't as many boxes doesn't mean they are worth more, at least not to this buyer!

jimtb · December 26, 2004 3:22AM

Hey MiniMaster,
I just sent you an email.
jim

Fuzz · December 27, 2004 4:24AM

Regarding the wax prices....... this is based on a long standing, time tested belief. It has always appeared that Topps changed distribution strategies for year to year. In Even numbered years, they focused on wax packs with cellos, racks and vending taking a back seat. In the Odd years, the reverse was true. The regualr was box price in '75 reflects a price well above what the cards are worth because they are much more difficult to get than either the 74's or the 76's. This has been the case for many years. The mini's seemed to suffer from distribution problems and appear to have been issued predominantly in wax. That meant that "left overs" from the test are quite abundent. And that to a slightly lesser demand for the mini's and the price difference becomes easier to understand.
With repsect to the prices ...... I don't believe that 8's will ever significantly appreciate. But at below grading fees, I think they represent a reasonable buy. Especially if you are focused on the sets and not the $. The 9's will probably cycle because they will always be in a lesser supply and the demand seems there to absorb the excesses when they occur. There is a large amount of unopened material in it's various forms that will be cracked should the price ever justify. Also, there are large amounts of good raw material available as well that is submitted whenever specials come along. These should keep prices in check for some time to come. Dead ?? no. But I think the sustained higher $ commons days are behind us.
These two sets (Regualr and mini) have always been my post 67 favorites and remain so to this day. I have nice raw sets and extras as well. But if these prices remain, I may have to venture into graded sets.
Fuzz

Gatorbait · December 27, 2004 4:37AM

I love the mini set and would like to build it raw. Anybody have any ungraded extras for sale?

Pittfan · December 28, 2004 11:49PM

At this time it doesn't seem worth it to buy the unopened packs. You can't even sell off the extra 9's at a reasonable price to recoupe some of your money.

MiniMaster · December 29, 2004 9:02AM

Pittfan,

Wait until the baseball season starts! You are correct now is not the time to sell. Now is the time to buy from those that want to sell at a low prices. Interest in Sports cards have always had there ups and downs. Enjoy the low prices and get what you can get while they are low

Are 75 Topps Baseball Dead ?

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