Forget Rios and LaRoche, start buying Jose Castillo and Guthrie Elite!

KallMaloneSay · March 9, 2004 1:24PM

Looks like we have a few more entering the scene from the 2002 Donruss Elite Extra Edition. Jose Castillo was moved from Shortstop to Second Base and it looks so far like he will be the Pirates Opening Day second sacker. Jeremy Guthrie is also getting a lot of ink lately from Baseball America, so we now have a few more guys that should be shooting the moon from the set.

iupkid · March 9, 2004 9:39PM

I'm not sure that Castillo will be the opening day 2b for the Pirates. I'm a Pirates fan and keep up with the latest news from the team and the odds-on fave for the 2b job is Bobby Hill. It was Freddy Sanchez's job to blow and he had been extremely slow to recover from off-season foot surgery. So unless Castillo lights it up this spring, the Pirates would prefer to send him to AAA to get more experience at 2b.

My prediction for him is that he goes back to AAA this season and opens up the '05 season as the starting SS with Freddy Sanchez at 2b. Jack Wilson got a healthy arbitration raise this year and will probably get in the $3MM next year which will be too pricey for a light-hitting SS on a team going nowhere.

Steve

KallMaloneSay · March 10, 2004 5:08AM

So far Castillo is 7 for 21 (.333 AVG) with 11 total bases (a HR and a double) while Bobby Hill is 0 for 3 on the Spring. Hill has been a perrenial disappointment with the Cubs, whcih is why they dumped him. Castillo also has a ton more range than Hill. Sanchez keeps nursing an injury from last season, so I'd say it's safe to put Castillo as the frontrunner over the last week of play.

iupkid · March 10, 2004 5:31AM

Hey, I'm hoping Castillo does make it. I was really disappointed when they traded for Hill last year. All they were saying was that fans were going to love the player that was to be named in the Aramis trade. I had seen Hill play against the Pirates and was never impressed. However there is a very strong move in Pittsburgh by the current management to leave the players in the minors as long as possible because of the mistakes of the Bonifay era of rushing players to the majors too soon.

They are still really high on Sanchez and were eager to see him perform in spring training. I think they will be content with Hill playing untiil Sanchez is ready and see how Castillo performs against AAA pitching. This is all assuming Hill's back holds up. That's the reason he only has 3 at-bats so far. But you never know, there are times where a player makes it impossible to go north without him and maybe Castillo is one of these players.

Steve

TheRoach · March 10, 2004 9:09AM

<< <i>Looks like we have a few more entering the scene from the 2002 Donruss Elite Extra Edition. Jose Castillo was moved from Shortstop to Second Base and it looks so far like he will be the Pirates Opening Day second sacker. Jeremy Guthrie is also getting a lot of ink lately from Baseball America, so we now have a few more guys that should be shooting the moon from the set. >>

Hey, for once we agree on something. Sort of. I agree that we should all start picking up Castillo that is. As a matter of fact, I already have been doing that for the past week. I own 3 now at $25 a pop. The last one I saw went off at $36 or so. Great advice, but maybe just a few days late. Besides, I thought you were the one that didn't like to name prospects because others would drive up your final cost with more bidders?

Thanks alot! Now the same may happen to me. As far as Guthrie, I haven't read anything just yet. Sooner or later most people are just going to start grabbing any of these '02 Elite Extra Edition rookies with anticipation that one day their players are the next Rios or Laroche.

I personally like Jeff Baker from Colorado for my $$$$. I wouldn't spend more than $15 a pop though.

Hey Jason, how do you rate Quiroz in comparison with Rios? Just curious for your opinion. Thanks.

TheRoach

BowChromeProspects · March 10, 2004 9:22AM

I just picked up Castillo's TOTC /100 from 02 Elite for $25...what are his reg. elites getting? Thanks..

Also..how old is this kid?

KallMaloneSay · March 10, 2004 9:42AM

Quiroz is a good one to sell right when he gets called up. It's just too hard for catchers to hit in the majors, they usually get weakened by the second half. Piazza and Pudge are rare exceptions, check Paul LoDuca's first half vs. second half stats the last few seasons. I have a fair amount of Quiroz though too. I actually have a PSA 9 Leaf Certified Mirror Gold up on ebay right now if interested. My best bet for long term would be Jeremy Reed, although as a card store owner I can't really afford to get attached to anyone, if I make a goo profit on his cards then I'll move him out the door and hope whoever buys them gets rich off them in turn.
Jason

TheRoach · March 10, 2004 9:56AM

<< <i>Quiroz is a good one to sell right when he gets called up. It's just too hard for catchers to hit in the majors, they usually get weakened by the second half. Piazza and Pudge are rare exceptions, check Paul LoDuca's first half vs. second half stats the last few seasons. I have a fair amount of Quiroz though too. I actually have a PSA 9 Leaf Certified Mirror Gold up on ebay right now if interested. My best bet for long term would be Jeremy Reed, although as a card store owner I can't really afford to get attached to anyone, if I make a goo profit on his cards then I'll move him out the door and hope whoever buys them gets rich off them in turn.
Jason >>

Boy, it's funny how your opinion changes when you want to sell a card, huh? I looked up your Quiroz Mirror Gold Certified/25 that you are selling on Ebay and you are quoted in the item description as saying:

"Quiroz is considered an outstanding defensive catcher and with Posada probably retiring in a year or two, Quiroz has a great shot at becoming the AL’s fixture at catcher for the All Star team for the next decade".

I thought you just told me to sell him right when he gets called up? I'm confused now. And if it's hard for catchers to hit in the majors and you say they usually tire in the 2nd half, how can he be expected to be an All Star catcher for the next decade once Posada retires?? Hey, these are your words, not mine.

Boy I don't know which Jason to believe? The Ebay seller or the Forum poster? You rave about him in your item description and reference that he was rated higher than your boy. Rios, but now you tell me that I should sell right after he gets the call??

What kind of prospect adviser are you? Sorry about the math on Rios' average. I must have been looking ahead into next week....

TheRoach

KallMaloneSay · March 10, 2004 10:26AM

I don't feel I misled anyone, I stated that he "has a great shot at becoming the AL’s fixture at catcher for the All Star team for the next decade", not that I 100% guarantee that he will be the best catcher in MLB history. Outside of Mauer, he is the best catching prospect in baseball, so where was I misleading. Heaven forbid that I might actually be wrong every once in a while also. While I did well in 94 at buying a ton of A-Rod and Jeter SP's at $5 each, I also had about 25 Heath Shuler's that I paid about the same for. There are guys that I think will outperform their current prospect status and some that I feel will underperform. I actually think BJ Upton will be a semi-flop, but that doesn't guarantee that he will become the next Eric Anthony, nor does it say he won't become the next Alex Rodriguez.

In my auctions I just build a guy up with whatever information is out there, whether I think the guy will do great or fail. Quiroz might become the next Piazza, I really don't know. Look at his upper body, the guy is massive and he put up amazing numbers last year. I own 2 of the 25 Leaf Limited Gold Spotlight AUTO's, so obviously I think I'll make a little money on him. I hope he becomes the next great catcher, I just usually move a guy when he gets called up as a rule of thumb. It stung me in the butt on Baldelli, but saved me with Hafner and Blalock (In 2002, not 2003).
Jason

TheRoach · March 10, 2004 10:41AM

I know Jason. I was just razzing you. I always pump a player if I am selling him also. That's up to the buyer to decide if they agree with you or not. The condition of the card is the one thing that you cannot lie about if you are a good seller.

If I ever cross the line, let me know. I told you that I wouldn't talk $hit about your store or go out of my way to defame your character intentionally. How could I win against a guy that is liked so much on these boards. I'd feel like I was in the Open Forum being attacked by all of the other members in that case. I was just responding to your initial thread after Rios had that big day the other day. I had to wait for the right time to come back at ya. Just like you couldn't wait to post that thread once Rios had the big 3 RBI day. It's all in good fun I think.

By the way, I am one of the 1st bids on that Quiroz Gold /25. I saw it earlier in the day today. Nice card. I have an Auto version of the same card. I have my fingers crossed.

Take care.

TheRoach

iupkid · March 10, 2004 10:43AM

Kall,

You may not be far off on Upton. I read a story about someone doubting the Pirates drafting of Bullington over him and apparently the Pirates had Upton in for a visit before the draft and he was more interested in playing pool in the locker room than watching the game from the owner's box. Apparetnly that was enough to spook the Bucs from picking him. Bullington was the "safer" choice. You got to wonder about his desire and commitment.

Steve

KallMaloneSay · March 10, 2004 11:07AM

No sweat Roach, I actually value having another knowledgable prospect speculator on the boards, you're just too pessemistic sometimes on stating that almost every prospect will fail. I think Rios is overpriced right now too, he should be in the $80-$100 range, but you never know. I think Quiroz is still a little underpriced, and he was definately underpriced when I was buying his Leaf certified AUTO's for about $6 and Bowman Chrome Draft in lots at .75 to $1 each.

I never heard about the Upton/Pirates fiasco, I was just going by him leading the minors in errors with 56 last season and his stats were good, but not spectacular enough to be #2 overall behind Mauer according to most lists, including Baseball America. But like I said, he still might become the next superstar, he just hit a 480 ft Homer in the first game of the Spring as a 19-year-old.

My philosophy goes as such:
I never try to make guarantees with prospects,
I always try to make money with prospects.

You can place that on my tombstone when I'm dead, Jason

Forget Rios and LaRoche, start buying Jose Castillo and Guthrie Elite!

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