Inflation and Deflation

Justin · February 1, 2004 3:21AM

STAGFLATION. That is what we are starting to have in this country. Remember the 1970's? Health Care, College Costs, Property Taxes, Gasoline and Utilities, Food going UP but Electronics are dirt cheap. BUBBLE II developing in the Stock Market. High Tech jobs such as engineering and computer programing are going overseas to India and China. We are importing Salary Deflation into this country. When is the last time you got more than a 3% raise in one year? Just look at skyrocketing Gold and Silver prices and the freefall dollar.

My opinion is there is an over abundance of modern cards out there. Just look at all of the card companies. My prediction is within the next 5 years several card companies will go under. If some card companies are lucky they will survive by merging. You won't be able to give some of the cards away for pennies in the future. Save this post and come back and read it in 5 years

By the way, does anybody know how card prices fared during the 1970's when there was rampant inflation?

Stone193 · February 1, 2004 3:29AM

Justin

That's an interesting position - based on your assumption, I wonder if I will want to keep collecting and be around in 5 yrs. to consider you assertion - been collecting since 1990 - I'll take you up on that in 2009

Gemmy10 · February 1, 2004 4:22AM

If Upper Deck went out of business they couldn't make any more Yankee Master Collections:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2780698626&category=639

AlanAllen · February 1, 2004 5:00AM

I agree with what you've wriiten in bold, but I don't see how what preceeds it is applicable, or even true. I'm an engineer, and we just BROUGHT IN several engineers from India and China. I got a 10% raise last year. The only place I see rampant inflation is real estate.

Joe

habs71 · February 1, 2004 5:27AM

<< <i>....we just BROUGHT IN several engineers from India and China. >>

Well you're one of the lucky ones. These companies, and others, are all Exporting American jobs....

EXPORTING AMERICA

Justin · February 1, 2004 5:56AM

<<Well you're one of the lucky ones.>>

AlanAllen,

You are indeed one of the lucky ones. I am in the programming field and many jobs have gone to India and China where they are willing to work for wages 15 cents on the dollar. Then there are programmers from India who are bought to this country on Green cards who are willing to work for 1/2 or less of the hourly rate of a programmer.

This will be a BIG issue come election time and the Democrats are already making an issue of it.

AlanAllen · February 1, 2004 6:19AM

No doubt I'm one of the lucky ones and I know things are tough out there. I work in a power plant so you can't really outsource the engineering. Still, I don't see any significant inflation out there other than real estate. What is getting more expensive?

Joe

edit to add: If you know any civil/structural engineers with experience working on security projects (blast analysis, armor plating, etc.) PM me, we're still hiring.

Justin · February 1, 2004 2:37PM

<<What is getting more expensive?>>

Try Health Care, College Costs, Property Taxes, Gasoline and Utilities, Food going UP and the dollar has lost 35% against the Euro in the last year.

PeterAldridge · February 1, 2004 2:46PM

inflation!

PeterAldridge · February 1, 2004 2:46PM

deflation

Stone193 · February 1, 2004 2:47PM

Hey, me and my wife - last night at Starbucks - two Lattes - 8 smackers!! And you serve yourself!

qualitycards · February 1, 2004 3:04PM

<< <i>My prediction is within the next 5 years several card companies will go under. >>

Hardly an earth shattering prediction. Theres been many card companies that have ceased operation, Goudey, Play Ball, Leaf, Bowman, Philadelphia, Pro Set, Collectors Edge, Star Pics, Classic and so on.
In any economic environment there will always be a shakeup, where companies come and go. Thankfully the current crop of card companies offers the public a multitude of choices, Upper Deck, Topps & Fleer alone have over 100 products out annually...jay

Vargha · February 1, 2004 10:32PM

The original post shows a basic ignorance of economics. Stagflation = Stagnant economy + Inflation. That is hardly what we have here. Inflation lifts prices on almost everything by the way, so your cards would be priced higher although "worth" the same in relation to other goods and services. Additionally, there was no stock market bubble during the mid to late 70's. Finally, the value of the dollar in relation to foreign currencies is basically irrelevant as I would imagine that the graded trading card phenomena is 99%+ American (perhaps higher if you don't include hockey cards and Canadians don't use Euros).

That being said, collectibles can go up or down in weak economic times depending on whether they are viewed as a hedge against the economic forces or just an unnecessary use of diminishing discretionary funds.

oldguy · February 1, 2004 10:32PM

yup

Justin · February 2, 2004 1:48PM

<<The original post shows a basic ignorance of economics. Stagflation = Stagnant economy + Inflation. That is hardly what we have here.>>

Learn to read. That is what we are starting to have in this country

Check back in a year after the Presidential election. Interest rates are being kept aritficially low by the Bushies and Uncle Al. Once interest rates go up the housing and card markets will tank big time.

Vargha · February 2, 2004 2:38PM

I reread it. "Starting to have" implies that it has already begun. You are prognosticating, not reporting.

fab4 · February 2, 2004 3:25PM

i have been in cards since '77 fulltime. i as have others set up at card shows, and even owned a card shop for a year and a half.

point is : in 1981 when doruss and fleer entered the market the prediction was the card market would bottom out and the companies would go under because 3 companies could not survive.

skip again: when grading started up the prediction was that it would ruin the card companies

skip again: the new card market was at it's weakest and then game used and jersey cards came along

as long as someone can market it, either new shiny cards in 10.00 packs or giving the same 10.00 to a grading company to tell you their opinion on an old card. this hobby will do fine.

Q]You won't be able to give some of the cards away for pennies in the future. >>

see 1988 products and that has been over 5 years

ndleo · February 2, 2004 11:18PM

If the crap from the late 80's and early 90's didn't kill this hobby, then a little economic downturn won't either. The modern product has become much higher in quality. I am a partner in a store, the growth of the memorbilia cards have attracted people that normally don't buy cards. They may not want the $150 RC serial numbered to 100, but they will buy an autograph or jersey card.

Justin · February 3, 2004 9:16AM

Got Gold?

akuracy503 · February 26, 2010 4:14AM

Bump

Inflation and Deflation

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