psa 9 1976 pete rose $1,125

ydsotter · February 19, 2003 12:10PM

Wow.. $1,125 for a psa 9 1976 Rose... on one hand, it blows my mind... on the other hand, it makes me feel really good about PSA graded cards.link to psa 9 1976 rose

interchanges · February 19, 2003 12:26PM

How can this card be such a condition rarity? 1 of 4 PSA 9's?
It's from 1976! If I remember right, this card is usually centered low, but you'de think there'd be alot more 9's.

Once word gets out, and it will, I'll betcha we'll see a slew of these getting submitted.
You'll see about 3 more of these in the next 5 months, (I predict).
Just like, for example, the first 1971 Clemente (that was available) in a nine went over six grand, next thing you know, people are unwrapping their cellos or packs, and whattya know, within a year there's a handful more of them.
Nonetheless, great job for the seller! I'm sure he was tickled pink!

mikeschmidt · February 19, 2003 12:34PM

Few comments:

A) Seller lied about the population. Sellers do this often -- but it always pisses me off. But, then again, sometimes I just laugh at the buyer. Actually -- population in only 5, but it is amazing how the population listed is always less than the actual population. What may have happened is the seller listed the population for a 9Q, which is four. Nonetheless -- do your homework on a big card.

Only two bidders about $750. Both snipers (1 minute?) That should tell you this: either both really did not think they would have competition, or both have big egos and don't care about money. In any case -- I would tend to discount the final result on any auction where the final bid is close to 50% higher than the third bidder....

C) The last one to sell on Ebay, that I sold to Marshall Fogel, went for closer to $750.

D) SportsAlley24 is a new account to Ebay (though it is probably only a new account for a longer-time collector). I have had a positive transaction with this individual. One way or the other -- this individual bids high and has had some very nice cards for sale.

E) From a Rose perspective, this is one of his rarest regular-issue cards. 1971 Topps is first. This is second, with 1969 as a very close third. Eventually the 1969 will be rarer than the 1976 -- not yet, though.

At the end of the day -- I would view a card like this as an exception as opposed to the rule. If the population goes up -- expect the price to settle in to closer to $500. If the population stays the same -- you may not see another example anytime soon. I believe that four have traded hands in the past year or so -- most to major collectors who will in all likelihood keep the cards.

Pete Rose truly has a strong following -- and this example further evidences this phenomenon.

ydsotter · February 19, 2003 12:35PM

interchanges, if you are a big ben wallace fan.... email me.
you can email me through my link buttons...
I'll mail you a ben wallace present.

ydsotter · February 19, 2003 12:37PM

mikeschmidt, I am looking to pick up a good psa 8 rose... in the $200 range... would you say the 69' is the best one to pick up?
-Geoff

rw2win · February 19, 2003 12:45PM

<< <i>E) From a Rose perspective, this is one of his rarest regular-issue cards. 1971 Topps is first. This is second, with 1969 as a very close third. Eventually the 1969 will be rarer than the 1976 -- not yet, though. >>

MS - Do you mean in "9" or in general? Thanks.

ydsotter · February 19, 2003 12:51PM

need a little clarification... it's the 69 rose that's rare in a psa 9... not a psa 8... correct?
for around $200 more or less, what's the best rose to purchuse?
By "best" I mean... one that might appreciate in desireablity.
thanks~

jackstraw · February 19, 2003 2:09PM

i think if the pop was 25 you would find homes for all of them in the 500 to 700 dollar range. i know where one of them would be

mikeschmidt · February 19, 2003 11:34PM

<<MS - Do you mean in "9" or in general? Thanks. >>

I meant in PSA 9 MINT grade -- sorry for not clarifying.

joker73 · February 20, 2003 5:04AM

A couple of thoughts:

1) MS's '76 Rose he sold a little while ago looked *much* nicer than this one. It seems like Rose collectors have been coming out of the woodwork in the past month or two, many with fairly deep pockets. This auction seems to be a case in point, as the winner paid a 50% premium over the last (in my opinion superior) PSA 9 that was sold.

2) In terms of difficulty, here are some pop report stats for Rose's 10 toughest "main issue" cards (with graded pops over 25; excluding his rookie card - sorry for the poor formatting):

Year Graded 9s 10s % 9s & 10s
1971 352 1 1 0.6%
1964 853 12 0 1.4%
1965 764 17 1 2.4%
1966 507 12 0 2.4%
1976 168 4 0 2.4%
1967 476 13 0 2.7%
1972 421 14 0 3.3%
1968 511 22 0 4.3%
1969 558 30 0 5.4%
1974 367 19 1 5.4%

The 1971 issue has always been the killer, followed by his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year cards (no surpise there). But '76 comes in fifth, though admittedly with a much smaller submitted population relative to the others. I'm sure part of that is due to so many getting "pre-screened" and deemed unworthy of submission. Personally, I've only ever opened a few '76 vending boxes, and I was thrilled to get a Rose good enough to be an 8. My guess is that a price in the $600-$800 range will continue to be supported as more PSA 9s get graded. But I certainly wouldn't complain if that doesn't turn out to be the case

Robert

mikeschmidt · February 20, 2003 5:12AM

Robert:

Good analysis. One point to highlight: people have much different submission criterion for submitting a 1964/65/66 Rose card than a 1976 Rose card. A 1964 Rose card in PSA 4 can command $35 or so on Ebay, whereas with a 1976 card, you typically will make very little money on a PSA 7. The more valuable a card is -- the lower the limit is on deciding whether to submit it or not. With 1976 -- people probably should not submit their cards unless they have assurance it will get a PSA 8 grade -- but with the mid-1960s cards, anything over PSA 5 usually will command a premium if graded.

P.S. The 1976 Rose has a population of 5, as I noted earlier. This makes the percentage much greater than you mentioned in your analysis -- thus giving it an appearance of not being as rare as it truly is.

MS

1420sports · February 20, 2003 7:00AM

I agree with Robert. That last Rose I watched only, and it was not as nice as Marc's - a card I wish now I had bid on.

Without going into another analysis of the pop report, here are some qusetions instead. When it comes to a certain issue, how much more raw material is there for 1963, 69 or 76? Is the 1976 issue really that difficult or is that many people have not submitted these yet?

joker73 · February 20, 2003 7:29AM

Excellent point regarding submission criteria - it puts the pop report numbers in a much better context.

Out of curiousity, I looked at the 1976 set as a whole. A whopping 25% of total submissions for the set have been graded as 9 (nq) or 10. A lot of this is probably due to the higher submission standard people are probably using, but there also seems to be a really wide variance from card to card. Many of the league leader cards have tons of 9s, as do many random commons/minor stars. On the other hand, some key stars have miniscule 9/10 populations:

Brett 1.1% (n=4)
Aaron 1.7% (n=6)
Rose 2.9% (n=5)
Ryan 4.2% (n=52)

I'm far from a set expert, but there must have been some serious sheet cutting issues with this set. So it seems (at a quick glance at least) that the 1976 isn't that difficult on average, but that certain key cards are really tough. It will be very interesting to see how these distributions stabilize over time as more raw material gets submitted...

Robert

chrisrenaud · February 20, 2003 8:40AM

The price for the 76 seemed high to me given that there is a lot of unopened 76 product out there, but who knows. The 71 analogy is not a really great one to 76 as the price difference between a 71 9 or 10 is near a magnitude higher than the closing price on this auction

jackstraw · February 20, 2003 10:10AM

i will take an unopened 76 rack box. email me if you have one for sale.

LJB17 · February 20, 2003 10:11AM

Another fairly scarce Rose card is the 1979 Topps. 271 submitted with 16 9s and no 10s. A 5.9% rate which is pretty scarce on the 79 set which operates at a 23% 9 and 10 rating on all other submissions. Even star cards usually pull around 10-15% in this set. I noticed this since I recently received one of the 9s and started doing a little comparison myself.

Wabittwax · February 20, 2003 11:48AM

As for him stating the wrong population for the card, I may have the answer to this. If you notice, the Rose is in one of the new holders which means it came back recently. I had this problem with some 74's that I just put on EBay. I would check the submission status every day online and when the grades finally came up, I put all the auctions together on Turbo Lister with the descriptions and then I just had to wait for the cards to reach me from PSA so that I could make scans of them then they were ready to go on Ebay. Well, there was a day or two between when they posted my grades to when they added them to the pop report. Luckily I caught it before I started the auctions but I had to go back and add 1 to what I stated was the pop report in all the auctions I had ready to go. Might be what happened here.

interchanges · February 21, 2003 1:06AM

That's happened to me before as well. Oh well, it really shouldn't affect the price too much 4, 5, what's the difference really?

I think the pop report is overhyped anyway, unless there's none, or one of a card, it matters. Otherwise you should use your own judgement. There are a TON of contributing factors.

Some cards, there appears to be alot of, yet you never see available (people could be holding them,never wanting to sell, or, the inflated number reflects many people have broken out 8's, going for nines)
You never know. The longer the pop report is out, the more lee-way must be applied when using it.
I think there are several more 76 Roses that could get nines out there. So should you go nuts when one comes out? I wouldn't.
Apparantly a few other people think otherwise. If it were a card from 1934, I would be more attracted to it. But 1976? I guarantee by autumn there will be 4 more. (almost double the entire population) (I'm writing it on my calendar now).
But someone else thinks not. That's great. Everyone has their opinions (and money.) It's always best when the money comes your way! (not the opinions)

Scott

(hey ydsotterdidja get my Wallace story?)

joker73 · February 21, 2003 2:29AM

Since 2/1/02, the PSA 9 pop for the '76 Rose has gone from 2 to 5 (with the 5th one graded in the past week or two). I'd be thrilled if the pop doubled to 10 by next October - I know someone out there wants to crack a few vending cases to help make this possible

Robert

P.S. The '79 card is another really tough one. To make matters worse, the 9s that I've seen really range from rock-solid 9s to diamond-cut 8s. I'd be stunned/suspicious if one evers gets graded gem mint.

Aaronman · February 21, 2003 7:35AM

I've noticed that a lot of dealers still use the quarterly pop report (the actual book). I think there are two reasons: 1.) Fear of the internet and 2.) it provides an acceptable medium for quoting a potentially lower pop on a given card. I don't know if this seller falls into either of these camps.

For the record, I think the toughest Rose to get from a mainstream set is the 70 Rose All Star. I've seen two 8's sell on Ebay for $250+

Enjoy,
Doug

bleacherbum · February 21, 2003 8:12AM

I couldn't agree more on the 1970 Rose all-star. I currently have one in the grading room and I'm anxiously awaiting the results. I think the T-B centering may fall out of the PSA 8 range, but I figured it was worth the gamble.

ydsotter · February 21, 2003 9:34AM

Hey interchanges, got your wallace story... very cool story...
if you want that wallace refractor... for free... pop me your address.
-Geoff

psa 9 1976 pete rose $1,125

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