Cincinnati Numsimatic Association (CNA) Coin Show report
scotty1419
Posts: 1,130 ✭✭✭
I attended the Cincinnati Numismatic Association show this year and I have to say it seemed like an incredible success and strong improvement from last year (it just keeps growing!).
I was able to squeeze in a rushed 60-75min sprint session on Friday and another 3 hour session at more leisure pacing Saturday with my son.
The footprint and volume of dealers almost seems to have doubled from last year and has been growing steadily over the years I have attended. They also do an excellent job of including YN-friendly and focused activities and events. My son participated in the 'scavenger hunt' and many dealers were generous to hand out 'treasures'.
I spent most of Friday at a military show and hadn't even noticed the drop in silver until I walked in the door. Ironically, I was also at a show in Jan (?) when silver took it's plunge from the $120 ATH. Coincidence?? Happily I found a cheap $45 Morgan keychain at the military show and picked up a decent pile of 90% including several silver dollars ahead of the show at around 43x face.
It seemed like dealers didn't know what to do in response to the silver drop. A small handful adjusted to remain competitive, but I think most just kept their high pricing. Lot of $75-85/oz pricing. One seller I saw was offering generic 1oz at $69.50 which seemed reasonable. Generic silver dollars were $55-60, so I was happy to pick up a nice common raw Peace in 63~ range for $53 which was essentially spot. It seems like most PM activity was pretty frozen at the show either way from what I saw because of the drop. Sellers didn't want to reduce pricing and I don't know there were a lot of buyers.
I went in with a very pedestrian wanted list related to finishing my Washington Quarter set with some earlier 30s dates and my Morgan list which is down to the final 15-20. I did have good luck with about 3-4 of the Washingtons including a nice AU+ 32s I was happy with, but couldn't find a single Morgan in my tight range for the dates in question unfortunately.
Some observations:
It seems like TPGs continue to gain more and more market share as more and more of the inventory presented is slabbed. I think this is echoed in more of the online commentary I see where people (especially non collectors) are asking if any and all coins should be sent in to get graded. It's almost harder to find decent non-slabbed material. I might have had an easier time in my Morgan search if I was looking at slabs.
Inventories and variety at the shows was very strong. I also noticed at this one more than previous years the increase in what I'd call 'non-coin coin-related products' - Star Wars meme shaped silver, comic book-look alike silver bars in a slab, little Pokemon character shaped silver in a slab, etc etc etc. It seems like that's probably attracting a lot of former Pokemon and comic book fans into the coin world, but I look at it pessimistically as items of false rarity with pricing that is extremely pumped up. $150-500 for a modern mint current production Yoda shaped silver oz in a 'ms70 slab'... etc. That doesn't impress me personally and I think unfortunately many getting into them will likely be BURIED down the road. But that's the history of hobbies - lots of perceived value that errodes down the road.
Lots of GREAT and impressive currency in attendance, even though it's far too rich for me. My son has a natural instinct to go for the high-end currency and gold which is already too rich for me 
.
Did anyone else make it?
Congrats to our fellow member and their team for putting on a great show. I look forward to this every year and I think it continues to grow into a bigger and more serious event every year!
Comments
Great report.
Your observation of dealers not knowing how to respond to the drop in silver values by simply keeping their generic pricing at previous high levels is interesting.
I'd imagine if it was the other way around, had silver values increased significantly, those same dealers would have easily made the adjustments to reflect the new pricing.
Yes I agree, but this isn't honestly that surprising and what everyone saw with the run to $120. "Heavy as a rock" on upward momentum, "light as a feather" on spot decreases. The instability of the increases also show how skewed the market is for private buyers/collectors/holders. You pay bigger premiums from dealers when it's lower, then sell at bigger discounts when silver jumps.
However the market decides. If silver decreases, and there are no buyers, sellers will be forced to adjust.
I also saw some dealers who probably haven't reduced their silver pricing since that $100-120 range. One had a sign "No silver sold below 60x face".
Nice report, glad you had a good time, and that you and your son got some new treasures to enjoy!
Informative report. Thanks.
Thanks for your time.