Can someone please explain the Donruss / Optic "Downtown" Craze to me?
detroitfan2
Posts: 3,368 ✭✭✭✭
While I agree the cards are very cool looking, there are plenty of awesome modern cards. They are advertised as "case hits", which seems rare, but they are not serial numbered. I just checked a 2021 Optic Downtown Joe Burrow has a population of 306 IN PSA 10 and yet is selling for $1700 - $1800. Thoughts?
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everybody loves to go ----- DOWN TOWN!!!
The younger folks like cartoons on cards. The Downtowns are very popular. The Manga sports cards were popular. Topps Chrome now has a variation case hit card which is a cartoon. And Pokemon cards are now more popular than sports cards, and its changing at a very rapid clip.
I had to delete and redownload the PSA app recently and noticed its PSA Pokemon and Sports Cards. There was an only TCG show a mile from my house yesterday so I thought I would swing by. They wouldn't let me in. Filled to capacity. An hour plus wait list. Was at the Philly Show Friday and it started at 1 and I was there at about 3 talking to a guy who sold 6 of his 7 boxes of a recent Pokemon release. I bought the 7th. The cards with cartoons on them are extremely popular.
The Tony Gwynn phenomena is a regular thing on the Pokemon side. I was eyeing a card that was going for 1000 to 1100 late August and now recent sales are 1700.
i have heard rumblings that downtowns are not nearly as rare lately as they have been in years passed. difficult to know as they are unnumbered
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I'd be surprised if these weren't the cards that get the hardest first, when the market inevitable pulls back at some time in the next year or 2
Today's Downtowns are yesterday's KABOOMS!
What that really means I do not know.
I thought they were interesting and innovative at first but the rise in AI makes them less desirable and some of the designs are not well done. As you point out, I also don't care for Short Print or Super Short Print (case hit) cards that are not serialized - how many did they really make? I don't believe many of them are actually done by an artist, if any.
Erik
For the modern football collectors, the Downtowns are like the Mantles of the era. The truth about modern collecting is that the sheer number of new products every season makes it hard for any card to stand out. Even serial numbered cards are getting diluted since every product has them, even 1/1. It seems that the hobby decided that Downtowns and to a lesser extent Kabooms are going to become the "iconic" cards of the era.
The early Downtowns were less cartoonish and more artwork. I pulled this Josh Allen and it is one of my favorite cards. From what I heard, Panini has cranked up for the production for all of these case hits as they try to cash in on the licenses before the party ends this year. I don't know what that means for the recent (2023+) DT and Kabooms in terms of future value, but I pretty much avoided them until it's clear how the pop will settle down. So far 2023 PSA 10 Optic Downtown pops are about double the 2018 PSA 10 Optic Downtowns and growing.
Also I see that Topps is trying to introduce their own versions, but from what I see at shows, Downtowns and Kabooms still rule.
I can understand why you would appreciate that Allen. I would love to have the 2018 rookie Downtown Lamar, same year/design. I like the Edgar Allan Poe and raven artwork added. But at 5900 or so in a 10 I cant justify spending that much today. But would love to have pulled it. Congrats on the pull and the grade received.
I do think "art appreciation" is a heavy component of card collecting, investing for the younger generations. In the Pokemon space, most of the stuff that sells for a lot actually looks really cool. POP can be high but it is pleasing to the eye so people want it. The same way people desire 71 Munson over 70 Munson. Its just a lot nicer to look at.
Downtowns and Kabooms are being propped up by massive amounts of hype.
They became the easiest thing in ultra-modern cards for people to latch onto and therefore gain the most demand - but also the easiest to manipulate price wise.
How much actual long-term demand there will be for them is hard to predict, but I would not want to be invested into them at any current-price level.
Now, if they were all actually serially numbered it would be a different story...
Do you really need a serial #? People who open cases know they dont pop up frequently. There are a ton of valuable cards without serial #s. You can check the POP report and not sure you need much more than that for the stuff not released in the last couple years. Anyone who pulls a big one is going to submit it. PSA 10 for 2018 Lamar low 200s Josh Allen high 100s. Dont think there are stacks of these cards ungraded or a ridiculous amount of PSA 10s in unopened boxes.
I think serial numbers don't hurt the value but I don't think they help that much. It's like the color parallel game, the lowest serial # doesn't always win. I can sell my gold refractors/prizms faster than other color even if they are rarer colors. To Panini's credit, they still have some good case hit ideas. I haven't seen anything "iconic" from Topps/Fanatics so far. Is Home Team a thing in baseball?
Here is the other Downtown I have, a 2021 Barry Sanders. The card gets more cartoonish than 2018. Downtown veterans used to be a good deal but they all spiked recently.