1968 Topps-Nines all over

Davalillo · February 2, 2003 1:06AM

I have posted many times my belief that collecting Topps baseball sets 1960-1975 in psa 8 would not be a difficult proposition as collectors/dealers would send in cards from this era in large quantities as the commons have recently become collectible.

I do not buy much on ebay and I do not analyze the population reports for things I am not buying, but I was struck that there are now approximately 10,000 psa 9s for 1968 Topps. While the pop of the individual cards varies considerably, I think I saw where one common card had a pop of 90. I the hit ebay and did a search for 1968 psa 9 and there were 225 up for sale.! While this no doubt includes some cards that are not psa 9s, I would think that the vast majority are.
Last week for fun I put in $20 minimum bids for a bunch of psa 9s and I won almost all of them.
This evidence leads me to believe that a psa 9 set is not going to be difficult for this year--and undoubtedly not as expensive as one may have thought a few months ago. I have done business with Dave Jacobs and he seems like a great guy but look at the way he has rocketed up to an 8.50 set rating. With a focus, I would bet he could get to 9.0 by year-end.
While this is undoubtedly the easiest mainstream set of the 1960s, to a lesser extent it is being duplicated in other years as well.
I think Basilone made the comment that 1965 psa 8s are coming down in price; no doubt 68s are as well. I cannot be sure this will happen in others or if it is happening now but I bet it will.

Davalillo

braves72078 · February 2, 2003 1:13AM

I think with the current special this too will increase the supply of 60's commons, thus bringing down the price. I think we saw the same thing with the last registry special. I collect mid 70's cards and have seen a significant increase in the POPs and a noticeable decrease in the prices.

I guess it's the old supply/demand equation.

Billy

dude · February 2, 2003 2:03AM

<< <i>With a focus, I would bet he could get to 9.0 by year-end. >>

I agree that there a ton of 9's out there, and approximately 80% of those 9's make up only 20% of the set. I've been working on that set quite a while, and there are still some cards that haven't been graded 9 yet. The "Revere Set" (#1 on the Registry) has a very high GPA (it's well over 9.0), but he was 125+ PSA 10's which help pull up the average. If you are going strictly with 9's, it would be extremely difficult to put a "9" set over 10 months.

AlanAllen · February 2, 2003 2:31AM

In contrast, the 1968 Topps Football set has had 129 nines graded, 1968 Topps Test Basketball has had 1 nine graded, 1968 O-Pee-Chee Hockey has had 30 nines graded, and 1968 Topps Hockey has had 19 nines graded. Are the other sports that much rarer in high grade or is the demand just not there?

Joe

Stump · February 2, 2003 2:31AM

Not to make this discussion worse, I have cards in route that will bring my set to 8.73. I believe it is a mixture of two things. I am a very aggressive ebay bidder. I think the people who bid against me will step up and tell you this. When it comes to a card I want I buy it. I dont buy all my cards on ebay. I have 5 or 6 other sources that I buy from including my own stock from owning a store for 15 years. Also the 1968 run I believe is the largest run of the 60's. There are still alot of tough nines out there along with 8 or 9 that do not have a nine. I do believe a couple of the 68 series are avalible in high amounts. I think these series carry alot of the nines. I do believe Davallilo has a great point. If you have the money you can finish about any set you want. I started the 69 set middle of last year and now have almost 85% complete without a 7 in the set. As time gos on the pop reports will grow. But all that aside there are still key cards in every set that are going to tough. Just from the fact of where they were on the sheets and how they were cut. Just for the record Ron who has Reveres Finest has 149 tens in his set. Even you Jim will have to admit that is quite a collection of tens. Let it be known I collect for the pure enjoyment of collecting and investment is not why I do this. Ron also feels this way as he has emailed me several times and has stated this. I love looking at the cards and the nicer the card the better. Also I am going for a 9 plus rating not because I think it will be worth more but because its what I want to do. Its really the only thing I do for me and I get the full support from my wife of 24 years. (the 69 mantle 8 she bought for me is proof) I know this topic gets debated alot but I believe we have three types of collectors/investers out there. One who buys and collects only. One who buys and collects hoping to make enough money to support his habit and the one who buys only with the idea to makr a profit. In this biz the latter is very hard to do unless you constantly turn your inventory. I for one will stick with the collecting aspect selling only the cards that have been upgraded or the years I do not collect.

Dave Jacobs

Davalillo · February 2, 2003 2:43AM

Excellent answer, Dave.

I am really overwhelmed at that 8.73 number.

I, too, collect for the enjoyment and I have no intention of ever selling my collection or even a part of my collection. I do have very aggressive collecting goals, however, and in order to have a shot at achieving them I have to be willing to sell cards at big prices occasionally and I have to pass on cards I need because of price and hope that they will come around again.

I wish you the best on your sets. Also I will make you a standing offer since you seem to be selling 9s now and then that I will buy any 9 you have that I do not in my 68 set at $25.

Davalillo

waitilltheytrytosell · February 2, 2003 2:57AM

There are 695 10's in the set. 228 different cards.
199 cards are responsible for 339 of the total.
29 cards are responsible for 356 of the total.

There are 9842 9's in the set.
5% of set(30 cards) are reponsible for 2824 of the total - average of 94 each.
10% of set(60 cards) are responsible for 4490 of the total - average of 75 each.
20% of set(120 cards) are responsible for 6114 of the total - average of 51 each.
30% of set(180 cards) are responsible for 7125 of the total - average of 40 each.
332 cards have 10 or less 9's and are responsible for 1730 of the total.

dude · February 2, 2003 3:28AM

Dave,

You've really come out of nowhere on this set. Your 8.73 GPA is awesome. You've passed me. Congrats! I still need about 30 cards to complete the set. If I finish it out with 30 PSA 8's, my GPA will be around 8.65. At some point I'd like the set to be 9.00.

Also congrats with your '69 set. I see you blew by me too. You are also fortunate to have a supportive wife. What are your plans after finishing your '68 and '69 sets?

Wait,

Thanks for the stats. It really puts things into perspective.

Stump · February 2, 2003 3:28AM

Jim I will keep you in mind on the nines. I now have 43 tens and will continue to upgrade. I have the luxury of building only a few sets. I know if I was buildind as many as you are I would tend not to throw so many eggs in my 68 basket.

Waitill Great info on the set. This does prove that a few series has alot of the nine and tens. I will continue to upgrade as I can.

Dave

dude · February 2, 2003 3:42AM

I guess it's not a secret now, since he mentions it on his registry set, but Ron is selling his second set - a straight PSA 8 1968 Topps set in the next Superior Auction. It's a very nice set and I strongly recommend it for anyone who wants a '68 Topps PSA 8 set.

theBobs · February 2, 2003 3:45AM

<< <i>There are 695 10's in the set. 228 different cards. >>

In 1965, last I checked, there were only 35 10s. I would guess that there are less than 1/2 of the 1968 10 total in years 1960-1965 combined.

Stump · February 2, 2003 3:54AM

Dan I knew Ron was putting his straight eight set up. I think he is curious more than anything. I will go to the 75 Reg set a little heavier but I think I will concentrate either on the 71 or the 67. I will know when the 69 gets to about 95%. It has slowed a bit but I have not bought any sevens yet. I just got the 83 Ferraro in 8 so I think one of the tough ones is out of the way. I just need Bob to sell me one of his Shannons.

Dave

theBobs · February 2, 2003 4:02AM

My memory was bad. 1965 only has 24 10s, not 35. Here is the break down of percentages, 9Q are not included...

Year............% 9s........... % 10s...........% 9 & 10
1960........... 3.22%...........0.72%..........3.13%
1961........... 8.47%...........5.92%...........8.37%
1962........... 3.88%...........1.71%...........3.80%
1963........... 4.51%...........2.06%...........4.42%
1964........... 6.49%...........3.32%...........6.38%
1965........... 8.22%...........2.15%...........8.00%
1966........... 4.29%..........1.80%...........4.20%
1967........... 8.96%...........3.32%..........8.76%
1968........... 33.31%...........62.39%.......34.36%
1969........... 18.66%...........16.61%...........18.58%

Take out 1968 and 1969, and it gets a helluva lot harder to build these sets in 9+ GPA. Heck even in 1968 and 1969 it seems very very difficult as waittell's breakout explained.

dude · February 2, 2003 4:06AM

Dave -- I agree with you on the '69 set. The last 20% of the '69 set is tough and the last 5% is extremely tough. Those other three '67, '71 and '75 are superb choices. I'm nearly done with my '67. I started the '75 set and got to 30% completion and decided to sell it. I was just getting spread too thin over too many sets. I'm working on the '71 set, but not very aggressively.

Caramels · February 2, 2003 4:13AM

<< <i>I guess it's not a secret now, since he mentions it on his registry set, but Ron is selling his second set - a straight PSA 8 1968 Topps set in the next Superior Auction. It's a very nice set and I strongly recommend it for anyone who wants a '68 Topps PSA 8 set. >>

Dan,.......................go to church and get off the internet! LOL

Looks like after reading Davalillo's trend analysis it seems best to either wait a while to build the more commercial sets or just buy one outright from an auction house though we all understand that takes most of the fun and pride of ownership out of collecting them.it does seem like after the wave of 'being first" with pops of 1 & 2,the second wave of purchases comes from the trickle sellers who have vending boxes blocking their gargages and send cards their keen eyes know will get 9's & 10's in doses moderating the supply and demand curve. This is obviously true of 51 topps Red,72-75 topps,mini's( DLSport ) and 68 topps all in baseball.Good post!

RayBShotz · February 2, 2003 5:56AM

Stump - Congratulations as well from me. You move up the 69' ladder has been impressive and you will soon slide by me with no problem. I am actually routing strongly for your ascension to the top because your "aggressive bidding habits" :-) on this set have virtually put a patient guy like me out of business. It will be nice to win a card or two again.
Seriously its a great effort. I, like you Dave, dont ever envision selling the set. Upgrade, upgrade, upgrade or start a new adventure. Sell?...Nah.

Davilillo - 68' seems to lead the way in the PSA 9 quality cards available from the era of which you speak. Not being a 68' PSA collector (Although I will say that this is the first set I "played with" as a kid) others know why so many MINT condition examples can be found within this set better than I. Safe to say at $20 you gotta grab'em.

Excellent post.
RayB69Topps
aja4rayb

srs1a · February 3, 2003 4:11AM

About a month ago, virtualizard posted some of the tough cards in the '68 set ...attached is his data. There may be more than a few 9's out there, but there are also some real bears in the set. (eg. 453 Ellis, 6-8's no 9's, no 10's -- WOW)

*****************

In case anyone's interested, I checked the pops on the cards mentioned and here are the current totals:

96-Senators rookies: 7-8s, 3-9s, 0-10s, 16 Total Graded

172-Walt Williams: 8-8s, 2-9s, 0-10s, 15 Total Graded

193-Jack Hamilton: 5-8s, 2-9s, 0-10s, 10 Total Graded

199-A's rookies: 11-8s, 2-9s, 1-10, 24 Total Graded

238-Tom Satriano: 9-8s, 2-9s, 0-10s, 37 Total Graded

246-Fritz Peterson: 28-8s, 3-9s, 0-10s, 37 Total Graded

282-Rick Monday: 12-8s, 1-9, 0-10s, 17 Total Graded

296-Byron Browne: 7-8s, 5-9s, 1-10, 19 Total Graded

441-Alex Johnson: 4-8s, 1-9, 0-10s, 9 Total Graded

453-Sammy Ellis: 6-8s, 0-9s, 0-10s, 16 Total Graded

498-Bill Bryan: 7-8s, 3-9s, 1-10, 16 Total Graded

556-Dick Selma: 7-8s, 4-9s, 2-10s, 18 Total Graded

Stump · February 3, 2003 8:58AM

What is tougher about the ellis is all 6 are accounted for in sets. No one else can finish the set in eight or better without a Ellis being added to the pop.. That also goes for the Johnson in eight although one of the nines yes there are two now is out there. Also forget williams in nine as Ron and myself have those two. And Monday in nine are also in mine and Rons. Some of the cards that are listed are going to be tough as mine and Rons main sets are not going anywhere for now. And while I am on the subject who is Pawlus. He is in the number two spot for about two more weeks then he will be looking up at me. He has been quiet this whole time. Does anyone know him I would like to chat with him.

Dave

1968 Topps-Nines all over

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