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Went to the local monthly card show Saturday..
olb31
Posts: 3,692 ✭✭✭✭✭
several sellers sold at the Chantilly show a couple of weeks ago. all three said it was rockin. 1 sold every card he had, the other sold $17,500, the most he had ever sold. the third one did ok, but had a more limited inventory. they said the show was packed and cards were selling for very high prices. the one seller who had been there the past 17 years, said it was the busiest one he had ever sold at. by thanksgiving card prices will be up 25% (for the big time cards). things are trending exactly the way I thought.
Work hard and you will succeed!!
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May be the case but anecdotes aren’t particularly helpful in an age when we can see exactly how cards as an asset class are performing.
And it really depends on what you collect. Card Ladder: the 2 year index on Gretzky is + 2% so hasn’t even beat inflation. Mantle index is down 8% past 6 months and down 4% for the 2 year.
Jordan on the other hand, well up YTD, 35%.These indexes aren’t perfect but should be directionally correct.
Personally I don’t see where the catalyst will come from for cards to take off - most economists are predicting a recession which are never good for asset values and equity markets have lost trillions in value ytd.
All that said I am buying and never worry about value of my collection…..my point would be we have all the data to tell us whats happening that I don’t find card show anecdotes and pumping very persuasive.
I tend to agree with the OP on prices rising for "big time" cards. It's happening every day. I don't even track stuff on multiple websites like some of you guys do, but trends are easy to interpret in a marketplace that seems almost desperate for quality items to magically appear. The opportunities are dwindling and will carry pricing upward until there's just nothing left to chase. It will all be in the hands of the wealthy.
Farewell Ozzy.
FWIW; I was at 400 Table show 3 weeks ago. I was only able to attend on a Sunday. I spoke with several dealers all of which said they did not make enough to even pay for their tables.
BTW each of those dealers, were asking 2-5x FMV for everything. I mentioned to one of them and his response - no kidding - was people were paying that much in 3-4 years ago (thus 2021-2022) so he was not willing to take less on anything.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
quite telling.
centered ryan's are red hot, when you can find one.
Some of the 80's Ryans are blowing up like suddenly they got rare. Dead centered = $$$$$$
Farewell Ozzy.
Will be going to another large2day show next week but since I'll be there on a Sat morning a market report will not be in the cards...
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I was at the Chantilly show as well. Friday and Saturday. It was an absolute mad house, like nothing I remember there. I went Friday and was like wow, okay its that thing I heard that these days its the beginning of the show that is most crowded with people looking to find the best and get it before someone else. Then went Saturday mostly just to get an autograph and it was even more packed. There is the Expo Center parking lot and I was four rows deep in the Walmart. Had a chuckle when I saw a young person ask guy what year a card was and say I am trying to get into vintage. Just gotta buy something old even if I dont know what it is. For me that kind of said something about where we are.
I feel that there will be an increase in prices on certain stuff. You wont be able to say you want 50% more on your Austin Kearns cards because stuff is going for more now. But just like anything think its supply and demand. I think the more desired cards will start going for more. I just got a 73 PSA Clemente for $410. Previous sale prices were in the 300 range and then saw whoa last 2 were like 525 and 500. I may have paid a little extra but felt it was nice and worth that to me. Bought something else that was maybe 10 to 20% higher in auction than recent highs but again sometimes you pay what its worth to you and its not bargain shopping time. Also feel these days the variance of what is in the holders for a particular grade is huge so if you see what looks like it belongs in a better grade holder its worth it and you pay.
I continue to feel people dont feel they can make much money buying stocks these days so if they like to invest and have cash (some will some wont) it might be going to Clemente instead of Apple. And cards can be like stocks in the sense that okay these may have been some of the more popular players but have already run up and dont have a lot more upside. The market itself can go up but Square and Paypal go sideways or down. Think its a card pickers market and you cant just invest in cards and win. You have to be right.
Evening,
It always throws me that there is such a difference from one poster (Or Area of the Country) has such differences in opinions. I was doing a Local Card show every month in Tempe (Phoenix) and even with 10's of thousands in product on my table and Dozens of unopened material going back to the 80's and over 100 tables at the show, nothing. Quit a year ago cause spending $75 for each table (have 2) then 6 hours on a Saturday and making $277 Gross just doesn't make it. Literally tried to give away some boxes at 1/2 price, Zero interest, Had 50 people pick up one of my 1985 Topps Black Border 1985 Football Boxes BBCE wrapped at $525, $100 less than any on E-Bay at the time...Zilch! The problem was simple, out of 100 or so tables, at least 30 were selling those Stupid Bobble Toy things or the other ones selling the Stupid YuGiGoh, Pokemen, CrapI I watched a Guy sell 5K of that crap at a show next to me where I made $700. Then I did a Comic Show where I took 50K worth of product and Keven Eastman was signing TMNT stuff right across from my setup. Watched him rake in in excess of 100K in one afternoon, his wife is his accountant and she left to deposit cash in the the Hotel Safe at least 5 times. . He was supposed to sign for 3 hours, he was there for 6-7, I had at least 5 different customers negotiate deals with me, then say, so sorry have to save this last $500-$1000 for Eastman to sign my items. I can guarantee you there should be some Cheap Eastman signed crap in the Phoenix area! For years to come!
Oh and BTW, made $877 dollars Gross before $250 in tables!
YeeHaw!
Neil
I do a lot of bidding on various auction platforms and my win rate is about as low as ever. I buy PSA8+ vintage.
Local as in Roanoke. They still doing shows at that mall? At least you're not driving 3 hours to Chantilly to be disappointed. Hope you're right.... depending on how & what you're buying and if paying shipping, sales tax, buyer's premium you'll need that 25% upside just to have a chance at breaking even if looking at it as an investment. Huge discrepancies in prices within the same grade. Dealers holding and dreaming of covid era prices hoping to hook some newbie into paying that 2-5X.
Happy collecting...........
This is why I have basically stopped buying cards at sports conventions. I'm not going to pay a huge upcharge when I could log into eBay and buy a the same card with that grade for way less, and sellers there are getting charged fees by eBay, so it gives you an idea of how ridiculous these dealers at conventions have become with overpricing their cards.
I mainly just go to conventions for autographs now. Occasionally, I'll come across a good card that I'll pick up, but those instances have become very few and far between these days.
Last Heritage auction I spotted a card and just felt, have to have this. If I overpay, fine. Would appreciate it as one of my nicer cards. It was a 1948 Leaf Ted Williams SGC 5. Absolutely dead centered left to right and top to bottom. Corners looked nice for a 5. Last PSA 5 sale that they report was 2700 in Nov. 24. Last PSA 6 in January 2025 went for 4000. Card looks nice so probably have to pay more than the 2700. Even close to 4000 maybe its worth it.
I'm scanning every detail, magnifying, asking friend's opinions. On maybe day 2, its at 4800. So at that point I'm out. It sold for $9,760.
Think it will just depend on the card. If I want it and it feels special and not easy to find, I will probably have a crowd with me taking an interest and taking the price 20% or more over recent all time high prices.
You can pick up some decent stuff at shows. People will try to unload sets (loading issues) and $5 card stuff. Picked up 15 Shaq cards for $25, mainly rookies and inserts. Got some sets. Factory 1987 Topps for $10, Factory 1987 donruss for $25, 1981 Football, 1986 Donruss Factory and 1982 topps for $225 total. sets were put together by the seller in the year they came out. I felt like i got some good cards at prices under EBAY.
One other observation about shows, went up to The Philly Show and saw a dealer behind his table counting 20 or 30 100s like he was a casino operator counting out a huge winning bet. I was like whoa that is a lot of cash to be counting out in the open. Then turned my head and there was a young man standing on the other side of the table by what looked like a zippered bank bag and on top of it was a stack of about 300 crisp bills that looked like they belonged together (maybe same denomination fresh from the bank) with a 100 on top. Think a lot of cash is entering the game recently.
You are SO lucky that you have a card show every month! I think in my area we only get one a year...I haven't yet gotten to go to one (no money to spend) and it'd be just my luck nearly everything will be modern/Pokemon/MTG stuff
D's: 50P,49S,45D+S,43D,41S,40D,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 241,435,610,654 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
Estil -- yeah they are pretty nice. Sometimes better than, sometimes not much,
I'm in a hobby where every real item is one of a kind. When prices sublimated 10 years ago what you described became the norm.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I guess it all depends on what kind of collector one is.
D's: 50P,49S,45D+S,43D,41S,40D,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 241,435,610,654 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
If you collect the most recent releases then I'd guess nearly all shows woudl be "good shows" I collected like that in the early to mid 90's when I was a kid but as I got older found it to be a viscous treadmill of spend a bunch of money player gets injured or never pans out rinse and repeat. I then decided to collect only those who had retired and eventually nothing after 1984.
My newest card in a PSA slab is from 1993 and it's one I self-submitted in 2001
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Fans always cheer when their team scores but it doesn’t mean that their team wins the game!!,
Attended later in the day than I had planned. Busy but not nearly as crowed as expected. So will give my pseudo show report.
Spoke with a few sellers and collectors I know, one of whom I've purchased from since the early 1990's when I was a still a kid.
Regarding pre-1980's non "rare" cards, Consensus seemed to be this; those who sell not greater than 10% above FMV do very well and go home happy, those who seek 2-3x market usually do not - contingent of course on reeling in a Rube or 2. Again not talking about "rare" cards or "rare" in grade. I do wonder about those who get "taken" for way above market when realization arrives, how many of them leave the hobby? Or is a rube simply oblivious to the end?
As buyer who never sells I want an incentive not to purchase online at a show not an incentive do to opposite.
I'm sure with amount of sellers on this board you experiences differ to above. But what I've mentioned other than shows in 2021 and 2022 I attended differs from the norm I've experienced. yet again I'm not talking about "rare" cards or "rare" in grade aka throw out the book stuff.
Anyhow i picked up a few vintage cards from my want list. The least, but coolest of which was a definitely under-graded (seller knew thus price above FMV, but buy card not flip) 1971 Regular Set Card with Ryan pictured on it - see if you can guess which one that is
P.S. I'm brutally strict on 1971 I even enlarged it in hand via phone camera app.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
1971 Bud Harrelson action shot…usually the winner receives a card😉
Right on the which card, NOPES on all else
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I was going for that one too. I bid $4500 out of the gate and was outbid weeks before the auction ended. Thought that was a bid ti win it.
Here is my little report. I have been setting up at my little local show for about 4 years now. about 90-100 tables every other month. the first 2 1/2-3 years it was a pretty common occurrence to sell cards in the 3 and 4 figures. Also, quite a few in the $25-75 range. the last year, it has been increasingly rare to sell a "showcase" card. in fact, I didnt sell one card out of the case at the last show. lots of tire kickers, but no deals. lately, it has been $.50/$1/$5 cards.
I have started to pivot into bulk. the real downside is the weight difference between bringing in 200 cards vs. monster boxes full of bulk. If this trend continues, I may give up the table and just walk the shows. when it becomes too much like work, the fun aspect gets squeezed out.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Nice report Craig. My show, the dealers started leaving by 1:30. I got there at 1:30. But the traffic flow of people when I got there was minimal.
I like going to shows, but...
1) older I get my back and feet kills me
2) I would rather charge my credit card than take wads of cash
3) Hard to accumulate unless you go back to your car and come back to the show
4) dealers only bring higher end stuff -- especially at a higher cost event
5) I can return items easily using ebay, days after a purchase.
In my area, there are too many shows and too many promoters. So each show is watered down as it’s not a once in a blue moon occurrence.
I set up at a show this past weekend and there were more people coming to sell than buy. So the “buying stations” are generally offering 75% of recent sales and further suppressing sales overall. The long term outlook doesn’t look too good if this wash, rinse, repeat goes on.
eBay Store
Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
Jason, Great problem to have. The only reason I would set up is to buy. But I get the issue with too many shows. on any given week there might not be many people showing up. Kind of like the FLea Market days
Set up at a local show on Sunday. Smaller show with maybe 30-40 tables. I haven't done a show in about 2 years so it was a scramble to get stuff together. Sold a lot of value box stuff, although it didn't add up to a lot of $$. Only sold 2 graded cards... 2000 Bowman Brady PSA 7 and 89 Fleer Ripken ff PSA 10. Most cards were priced at or below Ebay comps. Everyone wanted to lowball.
It was my first ever show doing Pokemon singles and sealed. My daughter manned that end of the tables as I really don't know that stuff. It accounted for probably half of my sales. Ran right at $3k total so not a bad way to spend a Sunday.
The show was 10-3 and busy the entire time. Two takeaways -
1. Pokemon people are very genuine and they love to do trades.
2. I need to do bigger shows and need more than 2 tables!
Question are you asking current FMV for your showcase cards? Example lets say a PSA 8 vintage Mays from the 60's sells consistently for around $1,200. The last 5 sales went for $1100-$1300. Are you asking a figure in that range? I'm asking because when I do see high grade vintage for sale at a show the sellers would be asking $1,800-$2,000 for this card and claiming their card was a very high end 8 which of course they are not. I rarely see high grade vintage priced anywhere near recent sales. I live in Southern California.
I went to a small semi-local show last Saturday morning. Lots of modern cards, auto's and 4-5 Pokémon tables. Lots of traffic in a poorly lit room. Basically, 2 tables that were vintage.... all low & midgrade late 50's through 60's and all in SGC holders. Best older cards I saw were centered '78 Murray PSA 9 for $1100 and '82 traded Ripken PSA 9 for $500. Didn't observe any "bigger" sales. Plenty of folks searching/ dumpster diving the $3-$5 modern rookie boxes. It seemed to me that SGC slabs outnumbered PSA slabs.
yes, I comp out the showcase cards before each show. In your example, I would list on the high end of comps. I would be at either 1250 or 1300. that leaves me some room for negotiation. after negotiation, I am perfectly happy at 90-95% ebay comps. that way the buyer gets a little break and I save on fees. I would never go above and be at 1800-2000.
that strategy has worked out very well for me until the last 6 mo-1year. I dont know whether it is an economy thing or a regional thing, but it has been a year since i sold a 4 figure card at a show. I am sure things are very different at the big shows.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Thanks for the reply Craig44. I wish more sellers at shows were like you.
I agree. Two things that are non-starters for me are dealers who have priced cards too high over comps and dealers who do not put a price on their cards. I don't even want to engage in those situations. It feels like the majority of dealers fit in those two buckets at the local shows.