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Staying Bullish on Trout
vintage535663
Posts: 13 ✭
Injuries have plagued him but none I'm aware of that he can't come back from. I think he has some good years ahead of him and am bullish on his card values.
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vintage535663
Posts: 13 ✭
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I’m not bullish on any cards at the moment. Market has another 25 percent to go before it hits the floor.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
Unfortunately, Trout is this generation’s Ken Griffey, Jr. All the talent in the world, deadly speed and power combination, but an injury prone second half of his career. Like Junior, Trout will fall short of challenging any of the major records.
Usually the years ahead are not so good when the years ahead are you being old in comparison to years when you were young when it comes to things like baseball and hitting. I mean if you say the years ahead look nice for Gunnar and he is 22 I can buy it. If you say the years ahead look nice for a guy who was killing it playing most every day until age 25 but is now 32 and has been missing a significant amount of time every year from 26-32 due to injury and hit .263 this year which is a large decline from his previous years, not sure I buy that. Guy who has been missing a lot of time in his youngers years consistently being hurt is now going to stay healthy and excel at ages 33 to 40, if that is what good years ahead of him mean, cant get on board with that. If you are holding the card and hope your investment does not fall off a cliff, I can buy into that. Its all a popularity contest. He has been loved. He was a face of the game. He made his mark. There are a lot of valuable cards where players with more impressive resumes than them have less valuable cards. He should be a HOFer no matter what happens. I wouldn't run out and try to acquire his most expensive stuff. But if I had it would see it as a hold. If someone made me a nice offer I'd take it.
He's only going to get worse from here on out. Given his recent history, I wouldn't be optimistic about a rebound. 500 home runs at one point seemed like a slam dunk but I bet he doesn't reach that milestone at this point.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Appreciate everyone's feedback...it's all logical. I'm optimistic that his decline won't continue and that he has a few more 30-40 homer and .300± years. Based on the overall response it sounds like I should buying Trout before the 2024 season starts. I do have a vested interest with the following card:
Griffey Jr is a fair comparison, but Jr ended up with 630hr. Mike prolly won't get anywhere near that.
However, Trout is kind of "the guy" for a lot of collectors, so unless something happens to negatively effect his card values, he shouldn't be too big a risk.
That's a nice card! Roughly what does one go for? I have one singular ungraded Trout rookie that I pulled from a pack. It wasn't some once in a lifetime pull. I must have opened 2k worth of product. I was actually trying to pull an Aaron Judge Rookie!.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
My Trout update RC is a hold for me. Got it out of a $1.00 pack so really can't lose if the decline continues. Only real loss is not selling at the peak.
That Diamond Anniversary rookie card was going for $11K at the peak. Last week PSA showed the last auction price at $3,600.
We have seen the best of Trout. Wrong side of 30 and an injury disaster. He regressed mightily this season. It is highly doubtful he will ever reach any major career milestones. His rate stats will continue to degrade. He had about 7 great seasons.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
He could have a resurgence, but I wouldn't bet on it.
His numbers are still VERY good.
He could go into the toilet, but if that happens, I would imagine he'll retire with his millions before his numbers deteriorate too far.
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Agree 100%.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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A screenshot of a post from a Reddit thread. It is not my post, but clearly plagiarized directly from the textbook that I use to teach my class, Trouty 101, at The University of Countdouglas.
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Speaking only for myself, the days of it being exciting to pull a Trout card are long behind me.
Trouts biggest claim to fame is that he was REALLY good at BB. an on base machine. the last 2 seasons, his eye seems to have left. OBP of .368
If that trend continues, and next year at age 32/33, I dont see how it wouldnt we will start seeing his lifetime rate stats plummet. the same thing happened with Albert and Miggy. His current slash line is: .301/412/588
he will certainly end his carrer below 300 for BA and below 400 for OBP. his SLG last season was .490. I am confident he will end up around .530 or so for SLG %
many have forgotten about his chronic back condition. they have apparently been able to stay ahead of it the last couple of seasons as his missed time is for other injuries. As he progresses into his 30s, it will become an issue. trust me. there is nothing that can sap a sluggers power like a back injury. just ask don mattingly.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
What blows me away are his card values when compared to Bryce Harper. They have very similar numbers, Harper's a year younger, and has much superior post season numbers. Although he's had health problems of his own, he's managed to be on the field more than Trout. Harper's Update Rookie PSA 10 (us183) sells for $52.00 (most recent Ebay sale) and Trouts (us175) sells for $951.00 (also most recent Ebay sale). The real kicker is that there are 6157 Trout PSA 10's and less than half as many of the Harpers at 2940.
You convinced me to buy a Harper card.
Here's the one I decided on;
Then I noticed that this is NOT a rookie card? Listing said 2011, PSA label says 2012. Cancelled the order and bought this one instead.
One of the reasons I focus on vintage, not so many "rookie" cards.
I agree, the amount of rookies is confusing. Brady has either 42 or 44 I cant remember which.
it can be a lot!
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Figured these just fit here following Halloween, just pulled the cards tonight even... cheers!
What’s the Trout 4mill superfractor worth today?
most definitely not $4MM. I would be very surprised if it sold for more than $1MM today.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
To me, definitely a great looking card; but yes, would be surprised, if not shocked, if it sold for more than $1M today.
Trout's good years are now behind him.
At this point he's never really had any memorable moments. He's had no playoff victories. No World Series rings. There is no moment for people to remember him at all. The only things he's really known for a stat (WAR) basically used to showcase him as the face of MLB and striking out to Ohtani to give Japan the win.
Now, people might say that he still has so much to accomplish. Let's look at how some all-time greats fared at this point in their career and on.
Albert Pujols
pre 32 .328 BA .421 OB .617 Slug 1.037 OPS
post 32 .257 BA .313 OB .454 Slug .767 OPS
Miguel Cabrera
pre 32 .320 BA .397 OB .564 Slug .960 OPS
post 32 .272 BA .341 OB .416 Slug .758 OPS
Alex Rodriguez
pre 32 .306 BA .389 OB .578 Slug .987 OPS
post 32 .263 BA .353 OB .469 Slug .822 OPS
Ken Griffey Jr.
pre 32 .296 BA .379 OB .566 Slug .945 OPS
post 32 .257 BA .348 OB .477 Slug .825 OPS
Frank Thomas
pre 32 .321 BA .440 OB .579 Slug 1.018 OPS
post 32 .262 BA .376 OB .507 Slug .884 OPS
Mike Trout
pre 32 .301 BA .412 OB .582 Slug .994 OPS
**taking the averages of the 5 players listed you can get a proper estimate of what the remaining 7 years of Trout looks like.
Post 32 .249 BA .353 OB .466 Slug .815 OPS
***of note...Last year this is what Trout looked like and you can already see the fall off beginning.
Age 31 .263 BA .367 OB .490 Slug .858 OPS
I'd estimate that Trout has about 2500 AB's left in him (at best) if he plays the 7 years of his contract.
His final stats after his career is over should look something like this.
7902 AB - 166th all time
2245 hits - 173rd all time
421 doubles - 157th all time
62 triples - 498th all time
521 home runs - 20th all time
1277 RBIs - 94th all time
1334 walks - 39th all time
2169 k's - 6th all time
.284 BA - 530th all time
.387 OBA - 128th all time
.550 SA - 29th all time
.937 OBA - 36th all time
The lore that was created by MLB to promote Trout as the face of the sport will start to wear off and he'll settle into a position where he's looked at as more of an average hall of fame.
At this point, coupled with his frequent injury issues and chronic bad back, it might even become a challenge for him to get to 2000 hits and 500 home runs. Also, the last 4 years have shown how much of a defensive liability he has become. They should move him out of CF and probably to DH to give him his best chance to be productive as a hitter.
They see what they have been told to see.
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Quality post!
A statisticians dream at least until this year, soon to become a nightmare to fans of whatever team he's on.
Unless somehow he acquires a career defining moment or 3 I do not think his card values will follow even similar paths as the players referenced in ArtVandelay 's post.
eeking 2 out walks in the 7th inning of blowout games appears to be Trouts true dici fama
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
I didn't follow the chatter too closely, and maybe this was mentioned commonly, but when it was getting close to the trading deadline and the Angels were wanting to convince Ohtani that they were committed to winning, my vote was for them to trade Trout ( but NOT to the Tigers!) . There was certainly going to be a team willing to go for him thinking they could turn him around and make a WS run or two. The Angels would have a ton of money off the books that they could use to shift to Ohtani and sign a bunch of guys. Now, they are stuck with Trout, a proven non-playoff participant/winner, and they are likely losing Ohtani. What a disaster.
winning is clearly not an important part of the game for Trout. that was obvious when he signed the big extension instead of going to free agency.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.